Westminstenders: Summer Season

[RedToothBrush]

No its not the weather making your brain rot and stop thinking.

Thats just Brexit.

I think the point is that even headless chickens eventually run out of steam and drop down dead .....and given that the UK has been doing that for over 2 years now, it must be running out of momentum and the denouement is getting ever closer.

Which reminds me: Please let me know if I ever say "We" when referring to actions that the WM Government undertakes or doesn't undertake . I do try to check myself and correct before posting - and it was a joy on the "Brexit and Scotland" thread to be able to say "we" for once and to mean it

Its looking like it bigchoc

Day time tv full of stories of TM's dancing but not much talk as to why she was in Africa in the first place

Thanks BCF, that has improved my day no end.

Russia war games: Biggest since Cold War 'justified
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45330161

'Allo,'Allo - do you live in France, LeClerc ?

Hazard We are safer when May is pretending to dance than when she is pretending to be PM

To think I spent so much money buying low energy lightbulbs to do my (little) bit to preserve the planet and Russia is taking 36,000 tanks out to play.

Some personal good news.

DH has been negotiating a new contract with work for some time. Today he has been granted a 'brexit clause' as part of it. Its an escape route if Brexit goes really wrong; he will be offered relocation in the same role in another EU country. In writing.

How many others will be doing the same in all sorts of professions?

I actually feel very guilty about this, but its something of a relief too. Though I'm aware its still not a magic bullet either and there are a few catches.

Dumb questions alert:

I've been brewing them for several days, if anyone has the time great if not no worries

If we dont sort out the Irish border then what does that mean for brexit, can it go ahead?

If mps say no to no deal what will happen then? We might get an extension? We can extend negotiations for months I can't see it making much difference.

If labour change their current brexit stance can they call a general election?

And why is Corbyn anti independent Scotland and won't consider a colab with SNP because they are pro (he cited how awful it would be for the scotish people all moral like) yet he's happily gone along with brexit? Is he just a hypocrit?

Why do I hate all politicians?

Oh congrats red what a relief for you both!

I like happy news!

Brilliant news, red
Congratulations to you and your clever DH

If we dont sort out the Irish border then what does that mean for brexit, can it go ahead?

The UK is free to do whatever it wants - it is after all a sovereign nation.

But, there are consequences. In the case of the Irish border, the UK signed an international treaty (the GFA - technically "The Belfast Agreement" but I'd rather call it what Theresa May won't). That treaty is lodged with the UN, and is underwritten by the EU on the Irish side.

The US also has a dog in the fight, as it's one of the few examples where US intervention has worked.

So if the UK breaches it, there are some serious consequences. Not least of which will be a total inability to negotiate anything with anyone. After all, who'd want to sign a treaty with the UK, if the UK just walks away when it suits them ?

Congratulations RTB.
The UK only gets an extension if it is shown that there is a significant shift in negotiating stance and a willingness to actually discuss things.
I think the criteria for this may get tightened up since I presume the E27 are getting more than a bit fed up with all the messing about. I think the procedure is well documented within the EU but a 'special allowance' MIGHT be granted of the UK showed real signs of cooperation.
The Swedish minister outlined a 'plan' for the NI which would (probably) not inflame the land border issue BUT it puts a border around 'mainland' UK. Thus customs would happen at Liverpool, Holyhead etc.
Labour are so busy infighting and trying to get away from the antisemitism theme that they are not really credible unless there is a really good and achievable manifesto that has appeared that no one has yet noticed.

Hazard imo:

1. If the UK does not concede on the NI border, the EU are most unlikely just to steamroller over the RoI

• many British people don't realise that most EU members are small countries, who would take this as a very alarming precedent.

Therefore, any NI border agreement - whether "creative" or not - will almost certainly require full consent of the RoI

Without an agreeement on the NI border, there will be no WIthdrawal Agreement, no deal and no transition

So, that's jumping over the cliff, without hanglider wings or safety net.

2. The A50 default is no deal, i.e. unless a deal is specifically agreed, it's cliff edge Extension of A50 can only be permitted if the UK govt officially requests it AND if the other 27 members agree unanimously. They are very unlikely to agree, unless they see a clear change in UK policy is likely, e.g. a new govt or a GE ... provided this is not too near 29 March.

So, there may be no time for the MPs to do anything

MPs can obstruct govt legislation, but the (unwritten) Constitution gives MPs little power to force a govt to carry out a specific action it doesn't want to do, especially if that action is very complex

One option is the "humble address" - but there is only time for them to require the govt to do a very simple action, e.g. sign the draft WA, possibly requiring the WA to include Norway+ as an aspirational future framework.

3. NO, Labour has insufficient MPs to force a GE, even with the SNP & Plaid, because the Tories and DUP combined form a majority. If sufficient Tories rebelled, or the DUP dumped the Tories - risking their bogeyman Corbyn as PM - then the govt could fall.

In that case, the Queen would ask the Leader of the Opposition (currently Corbyn) if he is able to form a govt.
Even with LDems, SNP & Plaid, he would need several Tories to give him "Confidence & Supply" which is unlikely if that means JC being PM, but not if say JC falls under a bus and Starmer becomes leader.

If the leader of the Opposition cannot form a govt, then there would be a GE.

The complete failure to agree on the NI border issue is why a no-deal Brexit on 29 March is looking increasingly likely,
of course without any transition.

That would have bad short, medium and longterm consequences for the UK, which would destroy any party who is seen to blame for it.

So that is why Tories are in headless chicken mode, torn between electoran suicide for a generation vs massive profits from disaster capitalism
and why Labour are keeping quiet - hoping this is their chance to stay in power for 25 years.

Both parties see Brexit as a huge risk to them, but also a once in a century opportunity to remake the country according to their ideology

We can only hope that saner, more responsible heads prevail and avert a no-deal Brexit

red Great news!

Thank you for answering my questions DG, LeClerc, BigChoc

I keep questioning myself that it can't be this bad, that things are more sorted then I know and im just a bit to thick to understand. Then it's no wait the government really is fucking up this badly!

RE customs at Liverpool would that be a no from DUP and thus the Tories?

I was reading about a 'humble address'with a rumoured 40 Tory mps. Makes you wonder what the government will look like this time next year.

As far as Scotland is concerned, Corbyn is an irrelevance now

Last week he did a 4 day trip to Scotland to spread the Labour message, but the only publicity/coverage he got was for the MacTaggart Lecture he gave on Friday on a UK wide topic (the one on press transparency and suggesting that the BBC should publish the demographics of its employees).

I took five hundred quid to the BMW dealers and the meanies wouldn't give me a new car for all that money. They are SO unreasonable.

On a more upsetting and serious note, look at the report on the BBC website about Venezuelans crossing into Columbia. Due to oil reserves fuel is almost free but you can't buy food. Hospitals have practically no medicines.
I went about 30 years ago and it was a vibrant country with all the modern conveniences. All brought down by poor government.

Good news Red!

Jakub Krupa @ jakubkrupa
Today Home Office has launched a trial of EU settled status registration scheme in Liverpool area, but:

- no press release for the EU media
- no media opportunities
- no access to applicants to ask for their thoughts on the system

These are absolute basics, for God's sake!

More to the point, how many people will register in the trial if there's no publicity to tell them about it??!

@Channel4News
"Mrs Thatcher believed that Nelson Mandela was a terrorist...Did you think the same thing?"
@Theresa_May is questioned by @MichaelLCrick about her stance on apartheid ahead of her visit to Robben Island, where Mandela was imprisoned.
twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1034514614833373185

Funding for Leave didn't come from the ANC.
www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2018-08-19-lord-hain-requests-formal-investigation-of-leave-eu-brexit-campaigns-south-african-links/

Here's a story to amuse you

www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/7121186/no-bids-portrait-nigel-farage/amp/?p=7121186&preview=true&__twitter_impression=true
Nigel Farage’s £25,000 portrait failed to attract a single bid at prestigious art show
The former Ukip leader has been a dealt a blow after the work, by painter David Griffiths, raised no interest at the Royal Academy's summer exhibition in London