Westminstenders: Summer Season

[RedToothBrush]

No its not the weather making your brain rot and stop thinking.

Thats just Brexit.

I dont know about you but atm, the relentless comments form the GOVERNMENT on how bad brexit will be is making me think we are in full on propaganda mode to scare people of Brexit so everyone is happy to accept whatever deal when we can get from the EU.

Whats been said today ISN'T a plan for No Deal. This needs to be stressed. This is a proposal for a limited extension deal. And its not a plan; its far too vague.

It is not telling any business who needs to do something in the case of No Deal, anything new. Anything they need to do they have long since done so. Its not telling any business something they don't know.

So what is the purpose of releasing these notes at all?

PR.

All this business of stockpiling drugs is not viable. Nor is there any binding legal requirement to do so. So why say it? So the government has set up someone to blame in case there is no deal, and they can abdicate responsibility.

Its about increasing awareness in the general public about what Brexit is going to mean in practice. Why would you do that? To prepare them for the shock of Brexit slowly or to try and persuade them its a bad idea?

But this isn't prepping for no deal - so it can't be called scaremongering because this is not a worse case situation where we have no deal.

What does that mean in terms of whether we will get a deal? It means that they are shit scared of real no deal. It means they are no facing up to that potential reality. Or they will try and make any deal possible to avoid that. With this being the worst they will go to. But the danger is the Brexiteers will see it as betrayal and too aligned to the EU and trigger real no deal.

But as I will stress again:

These are not no deal technical notes. This is a PR exercise

I also note it made the first headline on the BBC news tonight...

Like this quote from his twitter 21st August. When you clock in all the benefits afforded by agreements, rule of scale etc.

Being a member of the European Union is a bit like going to a sandwich shop and buying a £3 sandwich with a £5 note and getting back over £1,000 in change!

twitter.com/JasonJHunter/status/1031867679613886464

Hope Leo sticks his two fingers up to us, doesn't do a jot of work and embarrasses us. This is our mess we should sort it.

As he's currently the only one trying to protect Northern Ireland from this s*it storm I expect he will do as much as he can. Problem for UK is, the UK govt have just put their fingers up to businesses in NI and as an extension the people of NI when a border poll is coming down the track. That's not very clever.

Britain Elects
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Watton-at-Stone (East Hertfordshire) result:

LDEM: 67.0% (+67.0)
CON: 30.1% (-36.4)
LAB: 2.9% (-8.3)

LDem GAIN from Con.

No UKIP (-14.7) and Grn (-7.7) as prev.

Conversation
Election Maps UK
Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
Wow...

LDM GAIN
#WattonAtStone
,
#EastHertfordshire
from CON. They become the only non-tory on the council after CON previously held 50/50 seats.

Just looked at Jeremy Corbyn's twitter feed. Lots of tweets today. Not one about the no deal brexit advice from the government. Not one. I'm sorry but you can't call yourself the leader of the opposition if you're not even bothering to comment on the biggest issue facing all of us, probably in decades.

I do NOT think the government is rying to scare us into a soft Brexit.

I think they are still trying to cherry-pick, to get nearly all the advantages of the Single Market and the agencies & fertifications necessary for transport, medicines etc

They are just trying to cherry-pick by going for a large number of side-deals,
while avoiding the Withdrawal Agreement and the preconditions that would tear apart the Tory party.

They are aiming for an indefinite transition phase with all the benefits of the EU, but avoiding the obligations specified in the draft WA.

So, they have not changed policy one iota; they just think they have found a clever way to keep their red lines
... and a better way of blaming the EU after Brexit, for the consequences of UK govt decisions

So the government has set up someone to blame in case there is no deal, and they can abdicate responsibility.

I agree Red - These “notices” are specifically worded so it’s always others who should be taking action, neither the government nor the people. So it’s food suppliers who need to stockpile and find warehouse space to prepare for disruption. Ditto pharmaceutical companies with medicines. And so on.

So if (when) the SHTF, if (when) there is unrest due to hunger or lack of medical care, the government and its cabal of cheerleading Brexiteers will still be able to swerve responsibility and blame somebody else for not magicking up extra medicine production or refrigerated warehousing.

Standard Leaver MO really, just writ large.

Andrew Bridgen is a twat who unfortunately is being shown on a loop on BBC this morning. Some reporting of Hammond's output then a full rebuff from Bridgen. Because facts don't matter.

I see Hammond is being criticised for 'Project Fear2' because he has put a theoretical value on the cost of failing to get a deal.
His numbers may be out by miles BUT whatever they are it is not 'sunny uplands and unicorns for all'. Even if he worked it out on a fag packet it is still more realistic than any of the others.
There are 3 scenarios. First a stopping of A50 and just pay to clear up the mess (quite expensive).
A softish Brexit that broadly complies with EU club rules (IE not the fanciful crap in TM's 'paper'). More expensive now but recovery within say 2-3 years.
Crash out with no deal, Massive loss now and tens of years to get back to where we were 2 1/2 years ago.
Crop yields across Europe and elsewhere have been low so food IS going up and if there is any disruption through transport difficulties or failure to support farmers who need the investment at the right time there are likely to be much bigger price hikes.
Raad's 'I am at least a bit hopeful' is such a bad way of putting things, the government is supposed to be leading the country with a strong positive path to somewhere. This whole bunch have just got trainers and a T shirt on to climb Everest, hoping there is a cafe at the top!

mrsr you have my sympathies, mine isn't any much better.
In my ranting I forgot to include that when I say facts don't matter I'm talking about Bridgen's WTO bullshit, not saying Hammond's analysis is fact, though at least it based on something factual and not hopeful thinking.

Can someone lie to me and say this can and will be stopped?

I tossed and turned last night and didn't really sleep. DP asked yesterday afternoon which meds do I think he could cope without

He needs all of them.

He's a vulnerable person, one of the best and bravest people I've ever known. There are so many people in this country just like him and not one of them deserves this.

Sorry I just needed to off load this somewhere. I'm interacting with brexiters today and I imagine I'll need to vite my tounge!

Apathy, which in previous decades has served the Tories well has come back to bite them on the arse. I'm sure "moderates" like May and Hammond would love millions to march on downing street to demand an end to Brexit. May would then have a legitimate reason to stop it.

So scared of defying the will of the people, an ever dwindling group she ploughs on.

The notices are an appalling attempt at shifting blame when the shit hits the fan. Why/how on earth do they think that pharmaceutical companies will be able to obtain and stock pile 6 months of medication? Where are they going to obtain this magical stockpile? Pay manufacturers more to make stuff quickly? Just in case it's needed, then if it's not they have warehouses full of stuff going out of date.
Fantasy land.

DB heavily dependent on medication, which comes from Italy, Germany... Neither of us know whether any of these are made in the UK. Even if so, is there the production capacity to increase the output? Or if not, how long would it take to get a production line up and running?

Should I tell DB that not to worry, something will be sorted out?

Can all medication be stockpiled for six months? Doesn't some have a shorter shelf life?

Hazardswan
If you haven't done so already, contact your GP, maybe a copy letter to your MP as well asking them which of your DP's meds could be either reduced or missed IF stocks do not materialise. Presumably some are 'essential' and others take your DP from 'survival' to a decent level of comfort. Assuming this is the case, make your GP aware that continued prescriptions are necessary, I am sure they will know but at least a reminder will help, maybe the GPs have a list of 'critical' patients?

I'm going to try and talk to my gp about my medication.

The notices are an appalling attempt at shifting blame when the shit hits the fan.

And it’ll work, too. Just look at what Leavers have already been saying.

Do they mean import 6 months worth of the raw materials for pharmaceuticals manufactured in the UK?

Or do they mean import a stockpile of 6 months worth of medicines/medicinal products manufactured in the EU?

They are just going to waive everything through which is EU approved, n'est ce pas?

I read somewhere they propose to bring in shorter shelf life medicines by air freight. If that is still going fine, I suppose.

The factories producing the various medicines are still there and working, it is 'only' a matter of getting them from the factory to you as a patient. The NHS won't suddenly stop. The 2 main issues are getting the meds transported and through customs, and in theory the legal aspects of regulation/certification.
One is a logistics problem which 'emergency' measures' can restrict the impact of serious customs holdups, and the other that technically if the certifications become invalid there is the possibility that fraudulent goods may get through. Meds are checked and have serial numbers etc to 'prove' their origin at present, this won't actually stop but it may well take longer to get through to patients and if certification ceases it removes a layer of trust. The EU are not out to 'punish' anyone and branded meds will still be available.

A 'no deal' crash out scenario where flights and ferries are stopped will be a major catastrophe IF it were to happen. 6 weeks of 'stockpiled' medicines should cover that possibility because if it were to continue longer because the UK was effectively 'blockaded' by red tape (no certifications etc) there will be a lot more trouble throughout the UK than a shortage of fois gras.

Are you talking about medicines manufactured in the EU27 and being imported into the UK LeClerc?

On the other side, the products manufactured in the UK will have to be imported and batch tested in the EU, like other 3rd countries.

The NHS isn't the regulator in the UK. The MHRA is. And for centrally authorised products, the EMA atm.