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Brexit

Westminstenders: Summer Season

982 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/08/2018 11:58

No its not the weather making your brain rot and stop thinking.

Thats just Brexit.

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woman11017 · 22/08/2018 22:48

Tories get more from the dead than the living (there are other ways of putting that)
twitter.com/rcolvile/status/1032200728314556417
officially.Wink

BigChocFrenzy · 22/08/2018 23:07

red This Tory govt may bungle the no-deal planning / execution.
Shortages, power cuts, flights stopped - any of these would hammer their repitation & vote.

It is the medium term after no deal which is more worrying, because emergency measures probably won't be able to prevent a huge trade deficit, UK businesses & farms going bust or laying off staff, hence a massive rise in unemployment.

Even a competent govt - which we don't have - may overlook some vital isues that will only appear from 1 April
Brexit, international trade, transport etc are horrendously complicated and genuine experts are being cautiouis about what will happen

Who will do well out of no-deal, even if chaotic:

The hedge-funders who seem to have bought much of the Tory party.
They've hedged against UK companies and Sterling.
They stand to make billions - or lose them if there is Norway+ or remain

The vulture capitalists who want to snap up bankrupt UK conmpanies, takeover struggling ones
Then asset strip for more fortunes

Zillionaire property speculators who hope to buy cheap after a crash,
when some home-owners will lose their jobs, can't pay the mortgage, be in negative equity

Very wealthy people wanting to pay less tax

A few in fintech or international trade law

BigChocFrenzy · 22/08/2018 23:12

kate RNorth and co think they see the writing on the wall
and it spells "no deal"
Hence their 180 degreee turn after more than a year of frantically warning how disastrous it would be.

The govt red lines - if held - make no deal inevitable
So it is a question of whether May continues to put party before country
and whether her successor, if she is toppled after the party conference, does the same

CardinalSin · 23/08/2018 00:29

Just leaving this here...

Westminstenders: Summer Season
Jason118 · 23/08/2018 00:36

Is this from the mail?Smile

Mistigri · 23/08/2018 06:37

RNorth and co think they see the writing on the wall
and it spells "no deal"

I think this is right. He'd rather no deal to no Brexit.

He is very knowledgeable but I find him very hard to swallow (the racism for a start - and his son is worse in this respect).

Talkstotrees · 23/08/2018 08:32

Cardinal, I’d like to follow that Facebook account. And I’d love to read the thoughts.

Motheroffourdragons · 23/08/2018 09:15

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Hazardswan · 23/08/2018 09:16

Is anyone else a bit Hmm that today the first technical notices are released yet the news is full of gcse results?

RedToothBrush · 23/08/2018 09:23

Hazard, thats not a big thing to bury news in tbh. Its standard for the early news not to carry a story about something due later in the day, until its actually realised.

Though I certainly don't expect it to make the main headlines on the BBC anyway...

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Hazardswan · 23/08/2018 09:31

I had hoped they would, from what I've read the notices will be online not physical leaflets and these things are easily missed unless it's under your nose. Not to mention anyone who isn't tinternet friendly/confident - few and far between these days but still.

BBC was accused of remain biase during ref and yet the coverage now is weak. It's like a parent refusing to play favourites between children and both children end up unhappy Grin

Cherrypi · 23/08/2018 09:34

What time are they being released?

Peregrina · 23/08/2018 09:40

Hazards I made exactly that point about the GCSE results on another thread. There's going to be no contest - which would papers rather put on the front page - pictures of pretty girls jumping up and down, or boring old technical papers?

Bodoni · 23/08/2018 09:47

The European Citizens Initiative on retaining EU citizenship is now open for endorsement at eci.ec.europa.eu/002/public/#/initiative

The wording isn’t of the catchiest but basically they are trying to get people from seven member states to endorse a request to the Commission to find a means of preventing EU citizenship being stripped from British citizens by Brexit.
There are message of support at www.eucitizen2017.org

e.g.
“My rights as a UK citizen living and working in the EU are about to be take away from me. I am just one of the millions who was not offered the opportunity to voice opinion as to whether the UK should remain or leave the EU. Retention of my EU citizenship is a most vital aspect of my life. The British government does not act in my name and is not supported by the British people. Indeed the government is supported by 17.4m people and not the 65m people as falsely claimed by the PM.”Stephen

“Where do I start? It's still unbelievable that the UK wants to leave the EU. Please help the 48% retain their European identity and citizenship. The UK government doesn't represent us-- I hope the EU will.”Suzanne

“I support retaining my European Citizenship - more than furious about the UK government taking my rights away - rights I have used happily and proudly for 40 years in many ways - very disappointed that my son may lose the rights I have enjoyed also and desperate for him to have the same opportunities.”Nicola

"I refuse to have my future, and that of my family, stolen away"Andrew

"I did not vote for Brexit, I did not vote to leave the EU. I Wish to remain in the EU. I have a German wife and lived in Germany for 13 years. I know we are better together."David

"I am British & am about to be forced into a situation I couldn't even vote for. Thank you for helping me and all the other British people who are in despair about our country and its leaders. Retain EU citizenship!"Sally (Spain)

Please sign and share!

DGRossetti · 23/08/2018 09:48

pictures of pretty girls jumping up and down

The Private Eye moniker of "fruity" has always captured the media motivation here ....

ElenaGreco123 · 23/08/2018 09:50

The technical notices have not been released yet.

RedToothBrush · 23/08/2018 09:53

Its not going to be jumping teenagers that drown out the technical papers.

I'm just looking at the ONS release schedule for today:

Births by parents' country of birth, England and Wales: 2017
Local area migration indicators, UK: 2017
Migration Statistics Quarterly Report: August 2018
Migrant labour force within the UK's construction industry: August 2018
Young people not in education, employment or training (NEET), UK: August 2018
UK public sector finances, data tables: July 2018 (I believe this is the one that tells us all the local councils are about to go bust).

In fairness though this is the BBC home page currently. The tech details story is positioned at the second story. I am pleasantly surprised and happy with that.

Westminstenders: Summer Season
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woman11017 · 23/08/2018 10:30

@MichaelLCrick
Brexit department say Dominic Raab isn’t doing any more broadcast interviews today following the one he’s just done for Today. I’ve never known a time when both senior Cons & Lab politicians seem so scared of media questions

RedToothBrush · 23/08/2018 10:35

A little thread for you, I've just done for the benefit of another thread:

IFS @TheIFS
Multiple property ownership is becoming more common among older people than in the past, and these properties tend to be held onto throughout retirement

SEE IMAGE.

Paul Johnson @PJTheEconomist
Every time I see this chart I am amazed. ONE in SIX 55-64 year olds owns a second property.

It's the flipside of low ownership rates among the young - they are renting from their parents' generation. The allocation of housing, not just the quantity, matters.

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
7.6 million in that age group - so this stat beliw would suggest 1 million plus of limited and slowly growing U.K. housing stock owned as a second home - a Venn diagram of people owning second homes and voting against new ones being built would be interesting...

amazing stat- higher than I would have guessed, from this interesting @TheIFS report where economists point out that the tax system is economically unsustainable and suggest a currently politically unsustainable change to tax wealth more and income less

www.ifs.org.uk/publications/12959
The use of wealth in retirement

There has been lots of recent research and debate on individuals’ accumulation of wealth for retirement, driven by the concern that younger generations are not saving enough. Much less attention, however, has been paid to how individuals use their wealth once in retirement. This is an important omission, since understanding more about the evolution of wealth in retirement can help shed light on:

  • the extent to which such wealth is currently used to finance spending needs in retirement (and, therefore, the extent to which younger generations may need to accumulate similar sums in order to have similar standards of living in retirement);
  • the extent to which current retired generations’ wealth is likely to be bequeathed (which has direct consequences for the resources of later generations);
  • how people manage their resources through retirement (which is of increased importance given the introduction of ‘pension freedoms’).

Median non -pensio n wealth among these individuals [55 - 65 year olds] is £250,000 (mean non-pension wealth is £390,000). The majority of this wealth (60%) is held in owner -occupied housing, with 22% held in financial assets (current and savings account s, ISAs, stocks and shares etc.), 11% in other property and 7% in other assets ( such as business assets, land and antiques). What happens to housing wealth in retirement will therefore be the big driver of changes in individuals’ overall wealth.

Wealth is held very unequally the least wealthy 10% of individuals have essentially no wealth on average, while the richest 10% on average have in excess of £1 million.

Where do they expect money to come from for retirement?
The most commonly cited source is the state pension, which shows a distinct age trend: increasing proportions of individuals expect to receive state pension income as they approach retirement, reaching over 90% by age 60 . The next most commonly cited source is private pensions, again increasing with age, reaching two-thirds of those in their 50s. Perhaps less expected, over 40% of individuals report expecting to use savings to provide money for retirement suggesting many individuals expect to draw down accumulated wealth. Around 30% report expecting to use their primary housing (through downsizing, taking equity withdrawal o r renting out rooms)

Problem here. Millenials can't afford to move up the ladder. They are living in smaller houses to those generations above and they will never be able to acculumate enough to move up. The double whammy is that with baby boomers downsizing and they are also facing more competition (thus higher prices) for smaller properties.

The net effect is that boomers either can't downsize or won't get as much money from their property as they are expecting and that there is a band of smaller 2 / 3 properties which are going to end up over inflated in price (especially since the trend in recent years by builders has been to build bigger properties outside metropolitian areas because they make most profit on them). The whole current structure of the housing market is about to implode from this alone - with major implications. Expectations are not going to match reality.

These findings suggest that precautionary saving, bequest mot ives and financial acuity all play a role in individuals’ choices. The result is that the majority of financial wealth is set to be bequeathed rather than spent during retirement. This has direct implications for younger generations - they are likely to inherit the majority of their parents’ current financial wealth (in addition to other assets such as housing) . Given wealth inequality, some individuals will inherit little, while others will inherit substantial sums

This also suggests that plans are currently being made in families across generations which both generations are aware of. If a spanner is thrown in the works, and there is a total collaspe in social care to a level that has not been planned for, this could be problematic.

The EoL data suggest that in England there are not such large expenses on average. Just 6% of individuals faced some out-of-pocket costs for medical treatment out side the NHS in the last year of life. We do not have dat a explicitly on social care expenses, but the EoL data do tell us that only around 7% of individuals received assistance with daily activities from a privately paid employee in the run-up to death. Some 21% did stay in a nursing or residential home in the last two years of their life (32% of these stayed for six months or more), but not all of these individuals would have paid for this care privately.

This is frankly unsustainable. Its going to increase. Again expectations v reality are going to kick in at some point.

Decreases in tax revenue with an aging population who are not taxed through income tax are also something of an issue here.

Also if one of your parents live until their 80s or 90s, you are going to have a LONG wait until you get any inheritence. You are likely to also be also approaching retirement yourself with kids long since gone.

POLITICAL TIME BOMB

Brexit, Local Council Collaspe, Aging Population, Restricting Immigration, Tax and Housing Structure.

All the things that no one wants to talk about in politics. All about to hit at the exact same time.

Westminstenders: Summer Season
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RedToothBrush · 23/08/2018 10:37

David Henig @DavidHenigUK
Possibly relevant to these Brexit reports later today - am hearing continued tensions between DexEU and other departments - DexEU not necessarily wanting to listen to experts in other departments (could be seen in the White Paper)..

Also that the Number 10 operation continues to be incredibly slow in making any decisions, again does not necessarily make knowledge an important factor in decisions.

Why does Raab want to keep quiet today? Is he being told to keep quiet?

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DGRossetti · 23/08/2018 10:50

The technical notices have not been released yet.

I think it's a fair and intelligent question to ask if they exist ?

After all, fool me once ...

prettybird · 23/08/2018 11:04

....or if they are at the standard of a poor undergraduate essay (like the UK's "plan" Hmm for its Marshall Aid)?

woman11017 · 23/08/2018 11:09

I'm sure they'll be as 'technical' as the 'home' office is homely.

DGRossetti · 23/08/2018 11:15

It's all gone a bit fin de siecle really, hasn't it Sad ?

RedToothBrush · 23/08/2018 11:17

Lets be fair here.

It depends on what your standards are when it comes to being 'technical'.

To some technical is purely using a few buzz phrases like Max-Fac, Norway Model, Canada Model, Customs Partnership, Hard Brexit or Soft Brexit. Without understanding what the fuck they mean.

I see the BBC is trying to be helpful in their online article about the technical notes.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45274972
The article includes a nice little 'brexit jargon guide' search tool so you too can read an article and start spouting utter bollocks whilst you pretend Brexit is easy.

I think MPs and journalists have been using this tool for the last two years. Its good only for opinion pieces, shite blogs and facebook rants. Not so good for actual negogitations or complex business planning.

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