An open letter to leavers

[LoveInTokyo]

Dear Leavers

I’m sorry that David Cameron offered us a referendum and promised to respect the outcome, whatever it was.

Unfortunately, he was fucking with you.

He promised that referendum when he didn’t think he stood a cat’s chance in hell of getting a majority, and never thought he’d actually have to deliver on it. When he got his surprise majority, he made a big show of going to Brussels and pretending to negotiate with the EU to get us a “better deal”. Unfortunately, he already knew perfectly well that the UK already had a better deal than any other country in the EU, and that they were not going to bend over backwards to get us to stay. So he made a big show of negotiating and then tried to pretend that he had done something meaningful. He then went through the motions of holding a referendum, half-heartedly campaigning to remain. He did absolutely no contingency planning, partly because he never believed that leave would actually win, and partly because he already knew that he had no intention of staying to deal with the fallout if they did. That’s why he resigned the day after the referendum and waltzed off, whistling a merry tune.

He played a high risk game of poker with our money, and lost.

I understand that many of you feel defensive about your decision and dislike being labelled “thick” by angry remainers. As a remainer myself, I feel saddened and frustrated that none of you seem able to articulate any benefits that will actually come out of Brexit. But at this stage, I would quite happily accept that there will be no benefits, and settle for damage limitation. Unfortunately none of you seem able to explain how we limit the damage either.

We cannot leave the single market and customs union without there being a hard border in Ireland, which will put people’s lives at risk. We cannot leave the single market and customs union without severely damaging most sectors of the economy, which would cause untold hardship for millions of people living in the UK. I realise that remaining in the single market and customs union would make leaving the EU pointless, but it is the only way to limit the damage.

The government has made almost no progress towards getting a workable deal in place, and time is running out. We don’t have the infrastructure in place to ensure that supply chains of essential food and medicine will not be disrupted after Brexit day. We don’t have a plan to ensure that planes will still be able to take off and land, or that satnav will still work. We do not have any trade deals lined up. We simply do not have time to do any of these things.

Dear leavers, you do not have solutions to any of these problems, and more importantly, neither do Theresa May, Boris Johnson, David Davis, Liam Fox, Nigel Farage, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Andrea Leadsom, Daniel Hannan, Jeremy Corbyn, Kate Hoey or any of the people who claim to think Brexit is the right choice for the UK.

A no-deal Brexit is unthinkable. It is not an option.

I realise that many of you will feel betrayed if we do not get the kind of Brexit you want. But to be honest, you’re going to feel betrayed even if you do get the kind of Brexit you want, because it will be unimaginably shit. This is not "project fear", it is "project reality".

The government has a duty to act in the best interests of the country as a whole. It’s not good enough to lay the blame at David Cameron’s door and say he held the referendum so we have to respect the vote. David Cameron has been out of office for two years. It is now plainer than ever that leaving the EU is a terrible idea, and there is still time to put the brakes on and not go through with it. If the government goes through with this when they could put a stop to it, they cannot continue to blame David Cameron and claim that their hands were tied. They are not.

It is time for Theresa May to do the decent thing and say, “I’m sorry, I know it’s what the people voted for, but it simply can’t be done without causing a totally unacceptable amount of harm to the country. And I have a duty of care towards everyone, not just the 51.8% who voted leave.”

Will being Norway satisfy people who want to leave? Isn't it just the 'bad' bits of the EU with none of the power?

TL;DR

Had a few minutes of free time to surf MN. Looks like others have way too much free time on their hands

And yet you had time to post that? How useful.

I should have added that, of the options I mentioned, I think only "Be like Norway" provides an instant solution to the issue of the Ireland/Northern Ireland border.

LouiseCollins I agree with this. And it's our best bet of actually getting some kind of deal before March next year.

But the hard Brexiters in the Tory party would throw an absolute shit fit and probably stage a coup to try and get rid of Theresa May.

Norway was the option proposed by the likes of Boris Johnson, Dan Hannan and Nigel Farage. Even Owen Paterson stated that 'only a madman would think of leaving the single market.' But no, some leavers wouldn't like it. Most Remainers wouldn't like it. In the absence of a Peoples' Vote on the final deal, it might be the fairest compromise, that would reflect so narrow a split between Remain and Leave in the 2016 referendum. Nobody would be particularly happy, but it might be the option whereby the fewest would be extremely unhappy. What a bloody mess.

If the hard Brexiters got rid of May then they would have the job of coming up with a solution that could work. I suspect that's why they are all mouth and no trousers. They've been threatening to get rid of her for ages.

LoveinTokyo fully behind your postings on this thread.

LouiseCollins28 thank you for your responses also. I would, however, challenge your 'be like Norway' solution to the issues regarding a border on the island of Ireland. There is an international peace treaty lodged with the UN. You may consider that a minor irritation to 'leaving the EU' but, nevertheless, it is an irritation that cannot be ignored or brushed under the carpet.

JWIM

A "Be Like Norway" option would mean a close enough relationship with the EU to enable the open border between Ireland and NI to continue as it is now.

Wouldn't the Norway option compromise our sovereignty?

At the moment our elected representatives get to vote and contribute to European laws. If we follow the Norway option we will be subject to laws we have no control or influence over.

Parliament will then have absolutely no say in laws we have to abide by.

Thank you Louise, I echo Tokyo in her appreciation of your detailed and more nuanced answer.

Like MrsPratchett, I am unconvinced that Rees-Mogg and his ilk will let Theresa May backtrack to that option & we’ll be forced to the no deal scenario (unless the Queen declares a state of emergency and A50 is withdrawn)

@JWIM

I don't consider it a "minor irritation" at all, it's very important!

As I understand it, and correct me if I'm wrong on this, a Norway style agreement where the UK remains in the EEA and remains a member of the European Single Market means that free movement is retained and that means no hard border and the Common Travel area on the island of Ireland isn't under threat. Have I missed something important?

Norway is not in the Customs Union, hence an active border between Norway and Sweden cf need for an active border between the UK (NI) and Ireland. That breaches the international peace treaty terms, so is not a solution.

PS what is a 'Norway Style Agreement'? Not seen that in any of TM's various speeches setting out the UK position.

Ah yes, you're right, we would need to be in the customs union as well.

But to be honest, the part that is going to make leave voters really cross is that if we remain in the single market we won't be able to stop EEA immigration and we will still be subject to EU rules. So I reckon for most leave voters, if we have to remain in the single market, we may as well remain in the customs union as well.

And LouiseCollins28 why do you think reaching a solution regarding the border on the island of Ireland 'is very important'.

I am not sure what would make leave voters really cross (staying in the single market/CU/EEA/EU) until it becomes clear what it is that some/a few/all leave voters were actually voting for. And even understanding that may have little/no influence on how TM/Conservative HQ chooses to interpret the referendum result this week.

@JWIM

OK very sensitive territory I know so apologies if this isn't worded quite right but, simply:

because before the GFA/Belfast Agreement in 1998, small factions in the Nationalist and Unionist communities in Northern Ireland and into the borders and the Republic spent years fighting and killing each other and together with clashes with the RUC (as it then was) and the British Army hundreds of people were killed. This happened in NI, probably in the Republic as well and in mainland Britain.I'm sure the vast majority of residents of NI and the Republic and in mainland Britain don't to see a return to that and I don't either.

JWIM

Well I'm thinking back to the referendum campaign, and for me the leave campaign hinged on two things: money and control.

The leave campaigners claimed that we would be financially better off outside the EU because we would stop sending £350m a week to the EU (not actually an accurate figure) and that there would be no economic downsides (not long-term ones at least).

They also campaigned hard on the issues of sovereignty and immigration - we want to make our own laws and decide who can come into our country and who can't.

Of course Boris Johnson said there was no chance of us not having access to the single market (the "have cake and eat it" delusion option).

If we end up adopting the single market and customs union approach, we can limit the damage to the economy, but we will have failed to achieve all of the above objectives. People who voted leave for any of those reasons will be disappointed.

If we leave the single market and customs union then it's a hard border in Ireland and a completely fucked economy.

ackerman do you really feel as though you are safer and more secure in a “club” with countries who are passing a new law making it illegal to give food to refugees (Hungary), has a far right party in power (Austria), refuses entry to any refugees (Poland), is on the verge of real economic collapse, due in no small part to EU policy (Greece, Italy). Many people seem to view the EU as a cosmopolitan, even-handed, reasonable bunch defending our liberties, by it is not a group which fills me with massive confidence and security.

I can't actually describe how angry I am with David Cameron for not only allowing the referendum to take place without any serious discussion of these issues, but doing nothing to stop the leave campaign from basically running amok and promising a Brexit that would be all things to all people and which sounded brilliant in theory but in practice is not, has never been, and never will be possible.

I just hope all you people that do not respect democracy, just take a look at Zimbabwe, its a slippery slope,

Rosstac, what is your solution to the Northern Ireland issue?

I just hope all you people that do not respect democracy, just take a look at Zimbabwe, its a slippery slope,

On the contrary, I do respect democracy and believe that when people conduct it responsibly with ethics, it works.

What that means is an ethical, free press. Not one in the pocket of rich men and private interests. Sensible rules for referenda (which almost always means a supermajority for constitutional changes) and politicians who work for the country, not themselves. None of which we have.

I loathed and detested Margaret Thatcher's policies. Utter scumbag. But SHE believed them. She believed they were better for the country. This shower of arseholes are lining their pockets, increasing their power base while doing nothing for the people who elected them.

Just to be clear, I don't actually include TM in the shower. She is definitely getting wet though.