to warn of possible grounding of passenger flights and air freight from 29th March

[Clairetree1]

In order for any plane to take off or land in the UK from the 29th March, we need either

a) an agreement that we can still be included in the European aviation safety agreement, including agreeing to be bound by the European courts.

or

b) The UK civil aviation authority needs to set up its own safety agreement, write all its policies, establish it rules, negotiate with approximately 25 separate governments to come to an agreement that these rules are acceptable for planes flying into and out of their countries ( including the EU and USA), recruit and train several thousand staff, buy and adapt premises, put maintenance and safety procedures into action, to the satisfaction of said 25 governments, under go and pass international inspection and get underway.

My friend in civil aviation has been shouting louder and louder about this for over a year, as time ticks by and nothing whatsoever is done to make progress towards either a or b.

He tells me there was an article about this on the BBC website earlier, but it appears to have been taken down now, at least I can't find it.

Anybody prepared to buy air tickets for April 2019?

More pathetic anti-Brexit scaremongering bullshit.

please explain why you think it is bullshit.

we need international agreements with multiple governments for planes to take off and land here, we have no such agreements, and no infrastucture from which to negotiate them.

We have no independent sat nav satellites, and we will be losing access to the european ones.

which of these do you not consider a concern?

why not?

@LoveInTokyo Well said! I assumed for the longest time that there would be either BINO or at very least an FTA that would come with a transition period and guarantee the rights of pre-Brexit migrants. The alternative does not bear thinking about, but we are where we are.

Here we go again

Re aviation rights - the government only advertised the negotiator job in June. June this year. No experience needed...

For those of you planning to use the Chunnel instead, be prepared for delays or even closure of the tunnel. They don't have the space for freight to be processed, and if they can't handle freight efficiently, the passenger service become financially non-viable too.

Not sure how it will work with boats, presumably freight on ferries will also need to be checked...

Anyone posted this yet?

publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmbeis/380/380.pdf

The EU is strictly a rules-based organisation. There's no way 28 (or 27) countries are going to trust and co-operate with each other just because it's a nice idea. There have to be agreed rules for everything, and a recognised legal system of settling disagreements under those rules.

The UK has had four decades+ of either approving or vetoing every one of those rules and I find it hard to believe that so many politicians in positions of influence demonstrate every day that they don't even know the basics of how the EU actually works.

If the agreed (by all 27 EU countries) rules aren't in place by 29 March next year, to replace the innumerable agreements we're dropping out of, things just won't happen. Facilities we take for granted suddenly won't be available to us on 30 March and for as long thereafter as it takes to negotiate and agree new rules acceptable to all the 27 EU countries individually.

This isn't scaremongering, not project fear, it's simply the way it will be because we're ignoring the fundamental fact that it cannot be any other way.

I acknowledge it is a concern but Europe wants to be able to fly into the Uk as much as the UK wants to be able to fly out.
If nothing is sorted I would imagine some kind of transitional arrangement is put in place until it is properly sorted.

Really? They all want to fly to the UK as much as we (with a miniscule population in comparison) want to fly out?

Frazzled2207

A deal needs to be agreed to by both sides. At the moment certain people in the Tory party who really ought to know better are threatening to crash us out without a deal if the EU doesn't give us everything we want.

"No deal is better than a bad deal," they said. Except it is. No deal would be catastrophic.

I'm sure that in a no deal scenario when we've had our arse well and truly handed to us, we'll be far more motivated to get things sorted. But the fact that it may well have to come to that is quite scary.

The British spend billions abroad and I don't just mean tourists - Spain's tourist industry would be massively affected if Brits couldn't go to Spain next summer. Spanish as well as British airlines make loads of money ferrying people to and forth. And that's just one example of why nobody wants flights to stop.

mikeysister
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/royal-air-force-asked-defend-ireland/

Stealth
UK tourists/business travellers are a massive source of income to European countries. Their airlines want to continue flying into the Uk.

You're missing the point, frazzled.

No, the EU doesn't want flights to stop. Most non-insane people in the UK don't want flights to stop either.

A small number of powerful people in the Tory party - privately or publicly - want us to leave the EU without a deal. Some of them are stupid. Others know exactly what that would mean and plan to benefit from the chaos.

A lot of people (including anyone on Mumsnet who is still bleating on about "scaremongering") simply do not understand that these are the unavoidable - if hopefully termporary - consequences of leaving the EU with no deal.

If nothing is sorted I would imagine some kind of transitional arrangement is put in place until it is properly sorted.

where and when is this transitional arrangement going to be put in place?

You understand that the alarm is because we are not progressing towards any sort of agreement?

your solution is "never mind, I'm sure we will make and agreement to compensate for being unable to make an agreement"

you realise that is complete gibberish, right?? If we are going to have transitional agreements, we needed to start working on them, like last year!

Europe wants to be able to fly into the Uk as much as the UK wants to be able to fly out.

wanting has nothing to do with it! I want a slide to leave from the top of my hill to carry me directly into my classroom at the bottom of the hill 5 miles away in the mornings... should be simple to arrange, my employers want me to arrive as much as I want t o arrive.....

but I'm not going to slide into my desk, becasue the infrastructure isn't there, and no amount of wanting is going to work - it would have to be agreed, funded, designed, built, tested, and legal before I could slide down. That means people coming to agreements to design, build, test and make legal the infrastructure.

we don't need hopes and wishful thinking, we need progress in the actual design, building and legal agreements of the Brexit - that is what we are not getting.

All you Brexcrementeers right now:

I thought people voted for change with Brexit? If leavers are saying everything will be the same on 1/4/19 what was the point?

Has anyone shared this article, about Heathrow has secured 2 billion in funding which will allow them to weather a 2 month shutdown starting next Spring?

Heathrow airport has raised nearly £1bn in debt to keep it going through a “worst-case scenario” following a hard Brexit, its chief executive has said.

He said he expected “something close to continuity” through a Brexit agreement, but “our funding levels . . . mean we are protected. Even if we have no income for two months, we would be financially safe.”

www.ft.com/content/ceb7d6ce-8f55-11e8-bb8f-a6a2f7bca546

Sorry, 1b, not 2b. (What's a few billion in Brexit? Sovereignty is all that matters, after all...)

“Even if we have no income for two months, we would be financially safe.”

That really is disaster talk.

I can’t even imagine the level of damage to the wider economy if there was enough disruption to close Heathrow for two months.

For all the lovers of leave means leave
no deal means no deal as in things stop, no transition.

From @KennDodd link:

The impact of leaving EASA

Leaving with “no deal”

42. As outlined above, the ability of the UK to prove the safety and airworthiness of aircraft and to export goods both to the EU and global markets is predicated on EASA certification. As things stand, if the UK leaves the EU at the end of the Article 50 notice period without a deal being struck, it will also leave EASA.60 ADS outlined to the Committee how disruptive that scenario would be for all parties: Our working assumption in those cases is that we have no relationship with European Aviation Safety Agency … . In those circumstances, our regulatory regime is effectively non-functioning, because whilst all the people and all the processes are the same, if there is no mechanism for recognition of it, effectively it has no value or validity. We cannot [sell anything]… there is a broader range of issues around the… people doing the maintenance of those aircraft. If they are not recognised as being appropriate people to do that work, then even if they have done the work, the aircraft will not be regarded as fit to fly. It is chaotic because we do not know exactly what arrangements may or may not be put in place in order to try to bridge that gap.
43. ADS told the Committee that the UK’s CAA does not currently have the capability to take over the functions of EASA, and that “We have estimated a five- to 10-year period in order to even begin that process.”61 Strikingly, the chief executive of the CAA has said that it is not undertaking any preparatory work for taking over the responsibilities of EASA, since “it would be misleading to suggest that’s a viable option”.62
44. It is clear that leaving the EU and EASA with no deal would be highly costly and disruptive to the UK aerospace sector and aviation, as well as its EU counterparts. Given that no alternative arrangements are being developed, the Government should rule out this possibility.

I doubt any of the 'this is all scaremongering' crowd will actually bother to read it - but this is the industry's own analysis of what will happen if (as Jeremy Hunt has today warned is very likely) we leave without a deal.

Personally I think the more we hurtle towards a no deal the more likely we are to end up with BINO or no exit at all, so if I were an ardent Brexiteer instead of blathering on about how we are all gullible and making a fuss over nothing, I'd engage a little bit more and lobby my MP to get the government to actually sort a deal out.

No deal will be the death of Brexit...

motheroffourdragons

The EC website covering recognition of travel documents (PRADO) is here:

www.consilium.europa.eu/prado/en/prado-recognised-documents.html

The list of travel documents which entitle the holder to cross the external borders and which may be endorsed with a visa, divided into three parts, as well as the non-exhaustive list of known fantasy and camouflage passports, are drawn up by the European Commission with the assistance of EU Member States and Schengen Associated States on the basis of information gathered within the framework of local Schengen cooperation, as established by Decision No 1105/2011/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 25 October 2011

Motheroffourdragons

There are probably all kinds of things like that which will just stop working if we leave with no deal and which the government just hasn't given any thought to.

Personally I think the more we hurtle towards a no deal the more likely we are to end up with BINO or no exit at all, so if I were an ardent Brexiteer instead of blathering on about how we are all gullible and making a fuss over nothing, I'd engage a little bit more and lobby my MP to get the government to actually sort a deal out.

No deal will be the death of Brexit...

I hope so. If the Brexiters can't be arsed to make a success of Brexit then they don't deserve Brexit and it should be taken away from them.

(And we sure as hell don't deserve Brexit.)