Westministenders: A LOOOONNNGGGGGGGG Hot Summer

[RedToothBrush]

May has officially demoted Raab and the Brexit Department to just being responsible for practical implimentation in the UK and not negogitions.

This shouldn't be a surprise, its been the case in reality for some time, much to David Davis annoyance.

The official government position now seems to be scare the shit out of everyone about the possibility of No Deal in order to force the EU to make a deal. Jeremy Hunt has been dutifully spelling this out, by talking about an 'accidental' Brexit.

The government are already outsourcing responsibility for this potential eventuality to industy and business by telling them they need to stockpile food in order to keep supply lines going. This WILL mean price rises will start to happen soon. It also means there is no coordinated government plan and if businesses can't afford to do this as its heavily dependant on having sufficient cash flow in reserve to be able to do it, or don't want to, then you, me and everyone else is going to be well and truly on their own. Whilst the public are not being told to stockpile, its hard to justify not doing so, if this is the current government line.

The government has also done a u-turn on when the repeal of the European Communities Act will come into force. They fought hard to have it fixed for 29th March 2019. Thats now been rolled back to Dec 2020. This is fine, but in practice, makes no difference what so ever if we have no deal or the EU refuse to honour a transition deal on the terms the UK want. The ERG will also go nuts at it and try to get May to roll back on it.

Raab has also made a point of saying that if we don't have a deal by October (rather than midnight 29th March 2019) we are going into No Deal land by default.

Parliament has now broken up for the summer, with May surviving, so things are likely to be a little quieter for a few weeks, but come September this is all going to blow up with avengance.

If you think the last few weeks have been a rollercoaster, just wait for the Autumn.

TM is invited to President Macron's holiday home in the South of France. Maybe he'll talk some sense into her?

Unlikely. TM doesn't do sense.

However it's a great opening for the JRMs of the world to make mischief in her absence, and then accuse her of going native when she returns.

“That is just a profound misunderstanding of us as a nation,” he said. “There is real chance of no deal by accident. Everyone is assuming, no, no, no, this will never happen. Well, actually, it could.”

No shit Jeremy.

Is the Theresa May just the person you’d want to see on holiday. All fun and laughter and viable plans...

Isn’t ^^

Tatiana

I don't really understand betting odds, but this sounds interesting.

We now rate the chances of a second referendum before April 1st 2019 at 9/4 – slashing the odds from 3/1.

Our traders also have it odds-on (1/2) that no Brexit deal is reached by that same deadline, shortening the price from 4/7.

If that second referendum were granted – presumably with some kind of terms of exit outlined – we make Remain the overwhelming favourite to succeed (1/7) with Leave the rank outsiders (4/1). Though we’ve heard that before.

news.paddypower.com/politics/2018/07/26/odds-cut-second-eu-referendum-campaign-re-run-ramps/

I just lost an outraged post about Jeremy Hunt’s comments. Probably best for my blood pressure not to try recreating it.

With all the talk of the choice being a general election or a second referendum, I had an interesting YouGov question last night. It was phrased something like:

“Is Theresa May right or wrong to call an early general election”.

It was definitely phrased in the present tense as I immediately checked the news to see I’d missed the announcement.

Did anyone else see that?

Well, Jeremy Hunt - saying no deal could happen - that makes me angry too.
But here's James O'Brien saying why he thinks Leavers/Tories threaten no deal. Because they can't write the deal down. And agree on it. It makes a load of sense this, have a watch:

m.youtube.com/watch?v=OG6y7tBZx0A

I don't really understand betting odds,

It starts with what bookies think is likely, and moves towards how much punters put on certain outcomes. The more money on an outcome, the lower the odds.

Very "wisdom of crowds" ....

Macron is going to try and give her advice about handling Trumpian nonsense no doubt.

I once taught a very successful maths lesson to disaffected Y11s based on betting odds. Unfortunately my HOD got wind of it and ordered me to cease and desist, despite my protestations that it was not only a genuine real life applicationbut they clearly understood that it was a mug’s game.

It was the arrogance of the JH statement that made me so furious.

We chose this. Of course we can leave, but we cannot expect everything to stay the same. It is still our decision and we have lots of options open to us if we show some flexibility. We do not have the option of taking all the bits we like and refusing the rest. I don’t understand how anyone could honestly believe that was on offer.

To expect the EU to cave in and give us everything we want at the same time as trumpeting that we aren’t think kind of nation to blink first is just so cringingly awful. Surely there must be a tiny bit of self-awareness? How can they bring themselves to say these things?

BBC have a definite change of tune. They were actually talking about difficulties for business and the border issues with goods. It wasn’t so pro brexit today 🤔 interesting why a change of heart so late

This is from today’s Mirror. I know it’s a rag but I work in the NHS (although have been off sick for ages with depression which I at least partially attribute to work stress) and echoes what the doctors DH and I work with have been saying.
“Doctors have warned the NHS is at risk of collapse after Brexit, with an exodus of staff, drugs shortages and savage cuts.
Four out of five medics quizzed in a poll fearfor the future of the service once we leave the EU next year.
There are concerns a brain drain of European NHS staff will deepen the recruitment crisis. An array of treatments, especially cancer care, could also suffer.
Imports of vital drugs such as insulin could be badly hit and investment in research and funding slashed.
One medic said the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine survey results did not surprise him.
Dr William Sapwell added: ‘My impression from the front line is that everyone knows it’s going to be bad. It affects every little corner of the NHS.
We have recruitment and retention problems for doctors and if you put a barrier in front of seven to 10% of the workforce, it will get far worse.
It’s massively going to affect our ability to treat and detect some kinds of cancer. That’s the scariest part. There is also a real risk we will run out of insulin”.
Survey lead author Dr Kate Mandeville said:
“Doctors are among the best placed people to understand the impact of political decisions on the NHS.
On Brexit their opinion is very clear: Brexit is bad for the nation’s health”.
Labour MP Dr Paul Williams said: ‘ Last week the Health Secretary admitted the NHS is stockpiling drugs, and we know if we leave the European Medicines Agency we will join the back of the queue for new drugs”.
The British Medical Association has called for the public to have a say on the terms of the final Brexit deal.
Dr Andrew Dearden of the BMA said: ‘Doctors are worried Brexit could seriously undermine healthcare’.
The study, published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, also found 79% of doctors voted Remain against 48% of the population.
The Department of Health and Social Care said, ‘We have continued to work closely with the EU to ensure minimal disruption to the NHS’.

It also adds a cheery footnote that a third of NHS consultants are suffering from depression, according to a survey published in BMJ Open.

But I suppose doctors are classed as experts so we don’t need to listen to them and, if they were more positive about Brexit, they wouldn’t be depressed.

Talkstotrees

Thanks for the additional flowers. No need though - we’re all friends here (and I’m running out of vases!)

Turns out I’m a nasty remoaning snob

Well, Trees that’s us Remoaners, elitist snobs one and all! Actually, I have to confess, when DH first mentioned getting Sky I went a bit ashen-faced and asked “Does that mean we’ll need a (gulp) satellite dish?

I do feel bad about helping to swell the Murdoch coffers...

Right, time to catch-up on this thread. Spent far too long over the last couple of days getting sucked in to those Brexit threads on AIBU. Don’t know how some of the posters here had the strength to join in. Just reading them made me feel exhausted and depressed in equal measure...

On Brexit their opinion is very clear: Brexit is bad for the nation’s health”.
The absolute opposite of the promise on the red bus. It's a good job we have pictures of that or Leavers would be swearing black is white that this was never said.

Hello MsHoolie . Really hoping things are getting better with you. Sending love.

www.google.co.uk/search?q=private+eye+cover+brexit+bus&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-gb&client=safari#imgrc=TVHWaT2ZKVqO-M:
This is from last year but seems more apt than ever.
Thanks cat Hope you’re bearing up ok too

mrsr8 I have noticed the same at our local hospital. Very clear difference.

Best wishes to MrsHoolie and cat for your recovery

also to your mum, MrsR and to you for taking such good care of her