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Brexit

Westministenders: A Pickling Summer

983 replies

RedToothBrush · 18/07/2018 22:55

May has survived. The Turd Way has survived.

Whether this is true is another matter. The Turd Way was hijacked by the ERG who ripped it up and turned it from being a starting point to another ridiculous declaration of believing in Royal Unicorns. Rees-Smug has declared May LINO (Leader in Name Only) in tribute to BINO (Brexit in Name Only).

No one yet has grasped the consequences for NI. The backstop was absent from the White Paper except to say, it would never be used.

Johnson also in his commons resignation statement lives in a fantasy land, saying we had 2 and half years to get something in place for the Irish border. Except we don't because we don't have an agreed plan, we haven't hired the people to do it, there is no guarentee the way we are going that we will get a transition agreement agreed to afterall; its entirely dependent on us meeting certain criteria.

Even the Irish themselves haven't got to the point of admitting the possibility that there will be an Irish Border. Under WTO rules, members are legally required to secure their borders. If we are separate members to the EU we have to secure our border and they have to secure their border. In theory NI could be a separate member to the rest of the UK but this would breech the priniciple of a border in the Irish Sea.

No Deal has moved from being an option to being a distinct possibility.

The Trade Bill passed through the Commons unscathed with a dodgy pairing, the assistance of Labour rebels and the brewery tour organising skills of the LD and Labour whips despite the best efforts of Tory Rebels. It suggests the ERG have the numbers to force things but there still are no guarentees of anything.

We've had calls from Justine Greening for another referendum; despite it being obvious that the laws on referendums being ridiculously weak and just about everyone ignoring the findings of the electoral commision and the Leave Campaign's referal to the police. Even then the maximum penalties are wholly inadequate to prevent and deter electoral rigging.

We've had calls for a cross party government of National Unity. Which has been dismissed by Corbyn as an attempt at an establishment stitch up.

We've had the former Head of DexEu (the department who have refused the most FOI requests) and various ERG backbenchers (who said that publication of documents would damage the governments negotiations) ask for transparency and for draft DexEu documents to be published.

Ian Paisley Jr appears likely to be suspended from sitting in the HoC from 4th September for a month for breeching parliamentary standards, losing May one vital vote. She has however been bolstered by the resignation of John Woodcock from the Labour Party pledging his ongoing support of Brexit (he's been a Labour Rebel in the past). Plus there is the O'Mara Factor whereby the whole country could be at the mercy of whether Jared can be fucked to turn up to work at all or not.

There are growing signs out there for increasing support for EEA though despite it all.

The Trade Bill now goes to the Lords, where there is suggestion they might throw it out, after the Speaker declared they had the power to do so as it was a Supply Bill rather than a Money Bill thanks to the Amendments the ERG supplied.

All the while jobs are lost and companies are abandoning the UK and NI has had the most violence in years, but no one cares because Brexit means Brexit and its all worth it.

And finally, when being questioned by the Liason Select Committee, May said that 70 Technical Notices for Households and Businesses in the Event of No Deal would be published in August and September.

The country is in a total pickle.

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BigChocFrenzy · 21/07/2018 07:50

In the pharmaceuticals sector, companies said they were aware of potential shortages of vital medicines.

David Jefferys, senior vice-president for Eisai, a Japanese pharmaceuticals company, said a total of 3,000 to 4,000 marketing authorisations for medicines are held in the UK and will need to be moved to mainland Europe.
< that's just for his company .

His company is transferring licences for about 60 medicines to Germany “at considerable cost”. He said each transfer costs “about €7,200 [ . . .] just for them to change the name from Eisai Europe in Hatfield to Eisai GMBH in Frankfurt”.

“We will have to be stockpiling products on both sides of the channel to keep security of supply 

lonelyplanetmum · 21/07/2018 07:50

Britain has done some brave, heroic deeds in the past but some horrific things too. Decades of incomplete teaching about British history has fuelled the hubris. This is partially responsible for putting us in the mess we are in today. I don't think it is just history teaching though I do think that there's a baser human instinct to mistrust people from the next village which fuels the toxicity.

I don't want to derail but I do use this thread to share and diffuse my anger.

In this clip talking about NI the esteemed PM lies gratuitously.

What she says isn't even necessary to answer the question.

She says " We waited to trigger Article 50."

https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/1fd54dfe-ba13-401d-91d5-7ae4724c5feb

That is a lie.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/07/2018 07:53

plonky I was going by all the teachers on MN posting on other threads about the pressure they were under to teach to test
and older teachers saying that in earlier decades they had more freedom to go off-syllabus.
Things don't always get better. Sometimes they get worse.

Peregrina · 21/07/2018 07:55

The public campaign about no-deal planning is partly designed to show the EU that it should take Theresa May seriously when she says she is prepared to walk away without a deal.

I think this could backfire badly on May. A significant number of people who voted Leave voted because 'we send too much money to the EU.' They jolly well didn't vote for parts of Kent being turned into a giant lorry park and having to stockpile food and medicines. It will be spun as the EU bullying us.

Alternatively, like the Protect and Survive leaflets, it will be treated as a huge joke.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/07/2018 07:58

She waited a few pointless months.

Instead, she should FIRST have organised impact studies and obtained cabinet consensus on a negotiating strategy

Only invoked AFTER the UK was 100% ready to hit the ground running and negotiate with Barnier

Instead, the entire time has been wasted to come up with the Chequers Agreement - too weak and inconsistent even to be a Day 1 proposal and it was then lobotomised by the ERG in Parliament anyway

BigChocFrenzy · 21/07/2018 08:01

peregrina The govt couldn't put this off much longer.
Think how long it may take for people - espoecially Leavers - to accept and actually start prepping.

They may hopefully be aware that many people can't nip out the next day and buy 3 months worth of supplies with the money they happen to have lying around unused.

Peregrina · 21/07/2018 08:03

She says " We waited to trigger Article 50."

True in the sense that Cameron had promised if Leave won it would be triggered immediately. But then he also promised to stay on as PM and continue as an MP. With the first he threw in the towel withing 12 hours, and the second, was gone by the October - almost as quickly as a by - election could be arranged.

54321go · 21/07/2018 08:06

}His GCSE syllabus covers Germany 1890 to 1945,}
Even this is a form of warping the current situation in Europe. Naziism was 'defeated' in 1945, but it does not go on to say that after this and to the present day Germany has 'climbed down' from that awful past and has rethought it's stance. From mass extermination it is now among the more willing to help refugees (OK I won't suggest it is perfect) and if you consider it has embraced reunification and is one of the most productive countries in the world is remarkable. NI has been allowed to 'fester' unrest and continue triumphalist 'marching' which obviously reignites old (usually justified originally) emnity.
I was 'shouted down' yesterday for suggesting reunification of the island of Ireland IF the citizens of the whole island ALONE were to be polled, and help were to be given to improve the situation of those in NI.

From a totally non representative survey the peoples of Europe and beyound do not 'hate' the UK generally but the 'UK is best and knows all' attitude winds them up.The UK has its own strengths and weaknesses like all others.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/07/2018 08:08

When you realise your gamble is going to wreck both the economy and your own party ..

he and Osbourne cleared out pretty sharpish.

I hope he doesn't get a bloody peerage after all that

PostNotInHaste · 21/07/2018 08:10

DH and I have woken up angry. DH read that these bulletins starting next week so if true are starting as Parliament finish for the summer. We’re going to look at the content and then at end of the summer nearer the time they return try and get a local letter writing campaign to our local Brexit supporting MP. Not that I think it will help but we’re not going down without a fight, getting very angry all over again.

54321go · 21/07/2018 08:20

Well the 4 minute warning we were supposed to 'prep' for in the '60's was not needed, although of course it was totally pointless as there would have been nowhere habitable even if you did survive.

Peregrina · 21/07/2018 08:41

Protect and Survive was the 80s, I think. I looked to see if I still had a copy but couldn't immediately find it. I recall we were told to take a door off its hinges, prop it up somewhere inside the house and shelter under that.

Mrsr8 · 21/07/2018 08:57

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

HermioneGoesBackHome · 21/07/2018 09:03

But after 45 years of integration, a sudden rupture would affect almost every part of British life, with companies already stockpiling food and medicine, and the government looking at whether it needs to use the military to keep the country running

Ok basically the very big risk of martial law....

Which wouldnt surprise me because if there is such a huge level of disruption, then the risk of the whole country going awol is very high.
Starting with finding empty shelf’s in the supermarket.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/07/2018 09:07

Also from the paywalled FT article I linked:

George Bridges, a former Brexit minister who is now advising the chair of the bank Santander, also said that companies are running out of patience.

“Some people think we can strike a deal with the EU in, say, mid-February, and that will stop business from activating their no-deal plans, but that’s totally unrealistic,” he said.

“They will start implementing them incrementally and then the question is how reversible some of that is if there is a deal.”
...
Ian Wright, director-general of the Food and Drink Federation, said &food manufacturers had two main concerns.^
“One is getting product in through ports around the Brexit date, so that you can continue to manufacture.
The other concern is — what will happen to the price of ingredients?

“If there’s no deal, you’d expect sterling to tank,
so people are trying to hedge against those concerns by storing ingredients like spices that can be kept in dry storage, as well as chilled and frozen food,
although there is a shortage of chilled and frozen warehousing in the south of England.”

Peter Ward, chief executive of the UK Warehousing Association, said:
“Half the food we consume is imported;
80 per cent of that imported food comes from Europe and 90 per cent of that comes through the Dover corridor.
If I were a property investor, I’d be scouring the M20 corridor now because that’s where there’ll be demand.”
...
If there is no deal next March, MPs expect they will have to pass about 1,000 new statutory instruments through Parliament in a matter of days
to bring regulations into UK law, including safety certificates for airlines, maintaining the enforceability of financial contracts and even keeping the Channel tunnel open.
...
The National Audit Office disclosed this week that the government does not yet have plans for a system to issue as many as 7m international driving licences to British tourists who wish to drive in the EU
if the current arrangements are not honoured.

The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs is considering racehorse passports.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/07/2018 09:09

... But many aspects of the contingency planning

  • like the M26 idea and the use of RAF aircraft to ferry supplies of food and medicine around the country -
are so drastic that they risk alarming the public.

“The M26 is a major artery and you have to pray it wouldn’t come to this,”^
said James Hookham, deputy chief executive of the Freight Transport Association.

“It’s certainly one of the options they are looking at in government.
It would effectively mean that Cobra had taken over the road network as a matter of national security,”
he added, referring to the government’s emergency council.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/07/2018 09:10

chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com

this also presents the government with a dilemma:

if it plays down the likelihood of no deal happening, the contingency planning is less likely to happen;

if they play it up, the prospects of alarm increase.

Mrsr8 · 21/07/2018 09:11

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

lonelyplanetmum · 21/07/2018 09:12

True in the sense that Cameron had promised if Leave won it would be triggered immediately.

I see what Peregrina means but the PM wanted to trigger Article 50 immediately as well- without Parliament.

She clearly said we waited before triggering it.

This is a lie. She is rewriting recent history. She 101 % did not choose to wait.She was delayed by a group of concerned private individuals.
.

•June 2016 -Immediately after the ref Cameron wanted to trigger Article 50 under the Royal Prerogative. She, Cameron and the govt all said at various times they could make this move straight away without the need to consult Parliament.

Four days after the referendum an immediate legal challenge was brought by Mr Dos Santos to ensure a proper Act of Parliament was passed. This is why they waited! They had to.

•The preliminary hearing was before courts by 19 July 2016 when the High Court allowed Dos Santos and Gina Miller and others to join their proceedings together. At this hearing government legal team confirmed that the government would not now issue an Article 50 notification before the end of 2016..

•Instead of accepting that Parliament must have a role, after this decision (November 2016) the govt spent over £1m on legal fees fighting to prevent Parliament having a role.**

So she absolutely did not 'wait' the appeal stopped them.

•The Supreme Court then ruled by a majority of eight to three that the government could not trigger Article 50 without an act of Parliament authorising it to do so.

A group of concerned private individuals slowed them down.

But she didn't need to insert that gratuitous lie about how she waited in her answer to the NI question.

I think she must regret not addressing NI first before the trigger.

prettybird · 21/07/2018 09:42

It's not unpatriotic to report facts. However distasteful to rabid leavers they may be.

If you read the thread about Channel 4 News, it is indeed supposedly dreadful to be reporting the facts - and even Shock opinions Shock that bad things might happen Shock and that it should be taken off the air HmmConfused

54321go · 21/07/2018 09:48

Putting my computer on for the BBC 'news' this morning it would appear that Brexit is hardly a thing. Three quarters of the way down the 'news' page is some small reference to it.
There may be a bit of minor inconvenience for some seems to be their line.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/07/2018 09:53

So will Leavers want to ban the govt, if it issues its 70 warning notices and weekly warnings ?
Still Project Fear ?

Maybe JRM is working on that, delaying on any prep warnings until after Brexit
Gives time for zillionaire Tories to buy up wholesale supplies, then make a killing

Quietrebel · 21/07/2018 10:28

My son is a student in a small Scottish town (not very far from an army base but otherwise quite remote). Does anyone have ideas on how the potential disruption of goods might affect big cities versus small towns?

HesterThrale · 21/07/2018 10:35

I’m just picking my jaw off the floor. @BBCr4today interviewed an actual expert, @CSBarnard24 , about the impact of no-deal #Brexit, without insisting she debate the topic with a believer in unicorns. We got clear, non-sensational, fact-based information. Hopefully not a one-off.

mobile.twitter.com/CER_IanBond/status/1020554785651650560

frankiestein401 · 21/07/2018 10:55

@commonarewe - there's a strong case for saying 'it woz the russians wot won it' or rather hitler's mistake of trying to fight on two fronts.

the stats are sobering and need to be part of the curriculum - the commonwealth contribution was solid but a sideshow.
www.nationalww2museum.org/students-teachers/student-resources/research-starters/research-starters-worldwide-deaths-world-war

uk and commonwealth sufferdd about 500k military losses, the russians suffered 20 times that.

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