Westminstenders: Don't Panic!

[RedToothBrush]

It's official

Brexit is like an episode of Dads Army with the government, being Captain Mainwaring's trusty band of elite forces doing battle against the evil Mr Barnier.

Yesterday Parliament gave back control to the executive as it surrendered parliamentary sovereignty to Janus faced May. Grieve, it has to be said, truly did look like a broken man as he gave his speech in the commons. Not that we should have too much sympathy. After all he did just put party before country.

So where are we now? The ERG are happy. They have successfully bullied enough until everyone else gave up and folded. They now have no incentive to compromise, as they know that no one can stand up to them. They want no deal, and it's no deal they will force.

The EU are thoroughly fed up and it's difficult to see them do anything but cut us loose saying Brexit means Brexit, this is what you wanted. They have stepped up planning for no deal and their plans were already much more advanced than ours.

We go into the next round of talks with a solution to the Irish Border looking further away than ever. Not helped by the fact that brexit nationalism is restricted to England alone, with many being happy to let NI be sunk into the Irish sea and the favour the rebuilding of Hadrian's wall in order to keep out the foreigners.

It's hard to resist simply sitting down wailing "we doomed". But try to resist and keep saying, you are against this crap. If only so history books don't just say we all agreed to this clusterfuck.

Here have a fluffy bunny to help comfort you.

So ahead of next week's EU Council meeting, Juncker is in Dublin for two days, with Barnier meeting the Taoiseach (and Juncker has also a meeting scheduled with our fab President, lucky him).

I'm guessing this is to cement a strong statement in support of Ireland next week and to try and get through the message that Europe will support its members above 3rd countries and not throw them under the Brexit bus.

My 11 year old is currently learning by heart all the countries, their capitals and the year they acceded to the EU in class (we're in France). United Kingdom, London, 1973-2019 is what he's learning.

Part of me has always thought, no, they're just going to have to reverse it, it's crazy but now, hard Brexit seems the only destination. I have family in the UK, teaching, in banking, in the NHS, in your security forces. I wish they'd get out and they are making plans but just hoping against hope that someone will come to their senses.

They are playing on the idea that the other party wants a deal too and will do what it can to conclude the deal. [...] My worry is that we don’t know what is actually the EU position on that.

We do. We know exactly.

ec.europa.eu/info/departments/taskforce-article-50-negotiations-united-kingdom_en

Do they want a deal wth the U.K.?

Of course. That's if the UK wants a deal.

They certainly have said they are happy to negotiate.

more than said. They've come to every meeting DD has bothered to set up.

That the uk is the one who needs to come with ideas and proposals.

That's because it's the UK that decided to leave.

But it comes to the push, would they WANT to give a proposal to the U.K.? Do they want to see the UK stay linked with the EU in some way?

The UKs membership of the EU is not - despite Brexiteer delusions - an existential matter. It started without the UK, and will continue quite happily without the UK.

It's not for the EU to come up with a proposal. Quite aside from the natural law of negotiations (the unhappy party makes the first offer) they are also not quite as stupid as the Brexiteers they face. Why should they get involved in doing the UKs work ? Especially since any proposal would be rejected as a matter of principle by Brexiteers anyway.

Besides, we need to remind people how easy this was supposed to be. How the UK held all the winning cards. How they needed us more than we needed them. How they would be shitting their pants and falling over each other to offer us "a deal". How the EU would implode as the (high and) mighty UK withdrew it's largesse.

and then note that none of that has happened. Instead businesses and EU institutions have been slowly withdrawing from the UK. The first few on the sly, but then they realised - to their amazement - that they could do it in plain sight. And not only did no one care - it wasn't even reported half the time.

Meanwhile, in other areas, by letting her mask slip, and making the supposedly ultimate threat of the UK withdrawing from EU security arrangements, Theresa May not only made herself look weak, foolish, vindictive and less bright than she might have gotten away with. She also (helpfully) signalled that the UK had no intention of negotiating in good faith and was prepared to get down and dirty at the first opportunity. Which was quietly noted, and then processed. Hence the reversal that it is now the UK that is begging the EU to remain in the data-sharing arrangement for security services after Brexit. A plea which is unlikely to get much sympathy following the threats of last year.

The UK will be amazed at how much the EU can do without it. Airbus wings aren't even the tip of the iceberg.

Unless I've got something very wrong ?

@mrsreynolds - hopefully this will get you back on to the discussion.

Thanks Red. Place mat king.

Lord Adonis seemed fairly sanguine about yesterday. I'm hoping he's right.

The EU has always wanted a deal, but not at any price.

Giving into the UK's red lines would

• under WTO rules and / or the MFN clauses in existing deals with 3rd countries -

destroy the Single Market upon which the EU's prosperity depends

They'll suffer to some extent, but the businesses and jobs that move to them, out of the UK, will help reduce this.

Unfortunately, the rise of the far right in Sweden and the Swexit they advocate means the EU will be even less willing to make concessions.
So it is bad news for the UK.
Brexit so far has made most other countries keener to stay in the EU, with other far right parties removing exit from their policies.
The EU will probably want to head off the Swedish plan spreading.

The UK is the only country that has a problem with FOM - specifically of East Europeans - because FOM is only for EU citizens.
The far right across Europe are whipping up fears of Muslim refugees & immigrants, which is a totally different issue.

Refugees have a right of entry under international law and economic migrants are trying their luck at slipping in with them.
Totally understandable to flee poverty and / or war, but we have to stop this wrecking our political systems and leading possibly to fascist dictatorships

The EU needs to work with bodies like the UN to change the international convention on refugees and hence to have the right to stop the millions coming to Europe,
instead housing them somewhere safe, in their own region of the world.

Just a thought:

I suspect the EU would be delighted if fr right Poland & especially Hungary joined the Uk in leaving
We might even see a clean sweep out of a few countries, with the UK leading a new fascist mini-trade bloc, outside the EU.

Bugger! Wanted to comment here, but just had a notice from the Home Office of delay in my DW's application procedure. They're telling us she didn't do her biometric enrolment in time, but we have the receipt from the Post Office saying we did it well within the prescribed 15-day period. So either they've lost the biometrics or there's been a cock-up. In the meantime, they've got £1330 of our money waiting for them to grab.

Just another day dealing with the Home Office.

Hi
Sweden. They may want to Swexit and as they will be organised they will look through all the issues and discuss it with the EU if it is really what they want.
They organised swapping driving on the left to right within 24 hours. Saturday night stopping ALL vehicles except essentials (police/Fire/ambulance and the workers who changed ALL the roadsigns and markings on a Sunday. Monday morning, they all drive on the right.
Anything is possible if you have a PLAN.
The UK has jumped off a bridge 'Bungee' style but the Gov forgot to tie the rope on first.
While we won't starve, unless there is a serious plan which precludes unicorns the economic position of the UK is only downward.
Successful businesses have a long term plan. They also have in mind figures that if look too unsustainable will mean drastic action must be taken to survive, so it could come in the form of reorganisation, or sell out to an external investor. The UK either has or will get a reputation not to be trusted (at large scale business level) so investors won't invest unless it is a true 'fire sale' and cheap enough to write off for tax purposes. None of this is complicated, it is only swapping the names of 'products' from actions we all take when going out shopping etc. We all look suspiciously at some cheap gear in Lidl for example and wonder if it is any good. If it is sufficiently cheap we take a punt on it. If it seems OK then next time we go we may get more or from the same brand, it's all down to confidence.
The EU, as DGR says does not NEED the UK. It does however need the UK to stop messing about. The EU can happily make revised plans for EU minus UK, no problem at all.
Looking briefly at the Hungarian 'draconian' approach to refugees/migrants, I think most countries would do similar with that number of migrants arriving (about a million I forget now). They took a stand at the EU law saying that states had to accept all incomers. The EU should have come up with a plan quicker to try to resolve the migration due to war and economics but didn't. Mrs Merkel was slated for her attempt at helping. There will be a compromise possible there but both took a stand at the sluggishness to get 27 countries to agree to a workable plan. The far right will gain traction if inequality increases across Europe.

I still don't believe we'll get a no deal Brexit. The shenanigans over the Withdrawl bill were just classic May authoritarianism, but I'm not convinced the outcome will change her Brexit strategy. She will take everything down to the wire but ultimately she will fudge her red lines rather than usher in the chaos of a "no deal" scenario.

re hunger & recession:

I'm damn sure the UK govt would never deliberately choose a course that would lead to food shortages and rationing
or to destroy the economy

However, they might blunder into a no-deal situation, due to their incompetence, arrogance, ignorance, stupidity, pride - just some of the many bad qualities the current govt possesses

The most incompetent govt in living memory and at such a crucial time for the UK

Hence why a deal may only be post-disaster

• and the Uk will have to then basically take what's offered

That's shit has, but thankfully you have the receipts.

They're telling us she didn't do her biometric enrolment in time, but we have the receipt from the Post Office saying we did it well within the prescribed 15-day period.

Hasenstein I’m fuming on your behalf!

with the UK leading a new fascist mini-trade bloc, outside the EU
The only one in any fascist axis trade bloc including Russia/Britain/Poland/US with a functioning military and economy would be the US?

@Hasenstein.
Hope it gets resolved soon. While you wait you may want to ponder on possibly 20 Million other Brits making an orderly queue behind you.

The only one in any fascist axis trade bloc including Russia/Britain/Poland/US with a functioning military and economy would be the US?

Well they did invest in Nazi Germany. Grandaddy Bush being one winner, IIRC ..

Heathrow vote on Monday. And we have a ministerial casualty.

Greg Hands @GregHands
As the Government will be whipping the vote on Monday, this means I am resigning from the Government. It has been an honour to serve the Prime Minister (and her predecessor) for the last 7 years and I wish the PM & the Government every continuing success.

The Heathrow vote to approve the Airports National Policy Statement is on Monday... Labour did offer to make it a free vote - not taken up, so we now have a minister on the flight path resigning... but what about errr other ministers?

...monthly Foreign Affairs Council in Luxembourg on Monday...EU Foreign Sec meeting - which could see Boris Johnson abroad on the day of Heathrow vote...

But it is my understanding that Sir Alan Duncan is due to go.

Indeed of the 5 FACs so far in 2018, Johnson has been to two

Watch this be the thing Boris resigns over... (Greg Hand btw, was a remainer).

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/government-and-public-sector/news/96185/watch-andrea-leadsom-blames-labour-after-sick-mp
Andrea Leadsom blames Labour after sick MP forced to vote in wheelchair

Well at least that's in line with government policy of how the sick and disabled are treated by the state.

Has have you seen the Facebook group called
U.K. citizenship european nationals UKCEN?
They are a group of lawyers giving advice on getting PR and citizenship.
They might be able to help.

Arghhhhhhh

It's me...mrsr.

It's taken me 2 hours and I've had to re register but here I am!

(Goes off to catch up and drink gin)

Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
More detail:
the Heathrow vote is not until 10pm on Monday night - but the Luxembourg Foreign Affairs Council is from 9:30am till 5:30pm CET - so whoever goes, and I was told it was the Minister of State, could make it back for vote if for example, he has the Govt plane

Confirmed:

Foreign Office have just announced, today, in a Written Ministerial Statement today that Sir Alan Duncan is attending (as I was told) the Luxembourg EU Foreign Affairs Council on Monday, the day of the Heathrow vote, not the Foreign Secretary.

Johnson's choices:
Rebel whilst still in government (that would be an interesting one), abstain (still would be very controversial and a vote of no confidence in the PM), arrange a foreign trip at short notice outside Europe, come down suddenly with bubonic plague, not bother to turn up to vote, resign or betray his constituents.

Pop corn anyone?

www.ft.com/content/951bbd80-73cc-11e8-b6ad-3823e4384287
Insurance losses sharpen focus on finances of Arron Banks
Brexit donor under scrutiny over involvement in referendum campaign

The Gibraltar-based insurance company owned by Arron Banks made a loss of £32m in 2016, raising questions about the financial health of his insurance business when UK authorities are investigating the source of millions of pounds of reported donations to a campaign for Brexit.

Hmm.

ttprw

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
... but we’ve just asked the Foreign Office press office who was going to Luxembourg and they said that they didn’t know.. so there you go.

We’re not quite at Priti Patel flight tracker status yet, but...

The Sunday Papers will be fun.

This is the full article - CBA to format

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44553225

EU citizens will have to answer three "simple" questions online if they want to continue living in the UK after Brexit, the home secretary has said.

"We will not be looking for excuses to not grant settled status," Sajid Javid told a Lords committee.

They will be asked to prove their ID, whether they have criminal convictions and whether they live in the UK.

Their answers will be checked against government databases and a decision given "very quickly", said Mr Javid.

More details of the proposed scheme are being set out to MPs by Immigration Minister Caroline Nokes.

What now for EU citizens in the UK?
Brexit: All you need to know
May to fight post-Brexit residency move
But the home secretary told the Lords EU Justice sub-committee the government's "default" position would be to grant settled status and there would have to be "a very good reason why you are not going to get that".

He said there would be two types of status granted:

Settled status - for those who have lived in the UK for five years or more
Pre-settled status - for those who have been in the UK less than five years
The scheme will operate online and via a smartphone app, Mr Javid said, and would be "as simple as people can reasonably expect".

The government wants to get the scheme's rules in place by July when it hopes to start trials of it, with people allowed to start registering in the autumn.

Mr Javid said he wanted it to be fully operational by the "start of next year", adding that he wanted to avoid a "surge" of applicants when the UK leaves the EU in March.

The scheme would run throughout the two-year transition period after Brexit day and beyond, said the home secretary, up to June 2021.

Image copyrightREUTERS
Image caption
People who use Apple devices may have to send their passports in to verify their ID
The hope is that most applicants will not have to provide supporting documents because their answers will be checked against government databases - such as HM Revenue and Customs and the Department for Work and Pensions - as the system will be linked with those records.

Mr Javid said: "We are using government information, government records in a way, sadly, we didn't with the Windrush generation and other cases, but actually proactively using that information, and I hope that message comes through."

Applicants with Android phones will be able to download an app which can read the chip in their passport to verify their identity - and they will be able to take a "selfie" that can be checked against Home Office records, said Mr Javid.

But he said there was an "an issue at the moment" with Apple device users, who will not be able to make use of this app, and instead will have to send in their passport to prove their identity.

The home secretary said he had raised the issue with Apple on a recent visit to Silicon Valley and the company was "looking at it actively".

Applicants without smartphones or computers will be able to fill in their application online at libraries and other locations, said the home secretary.

Image copyrightHOL
Image caption
Sajid Javid: Lessons have been learned from Windrush scandal
Those without access to computers, or who are unable to use them, will be given assistance and may be visited at home by immigration officials, who will help them complete the process, said the home secretary.

He promised there will be no repeat of the Windrush scandal - which saw people who had lived in the UK for decades threatened with deportation because they did not have the right paperwork - for EU migrants, adding "lessons had been learned".

The new "settled status" scheme would establish the right of EU migrants to remain in the UK, unlike in the case of Windrush families where there was only an assumption they had a right to stay, without any documentary proof, he told the committee.

Mr Javid also accused EU nations, such as France and Spain, of failing to match the UK's progress on plans for expats after Brexit.

There are 3.8 million EU citizens in the UK, and about 900,000 UK citizens in the EU, according to ONS figures.

Both sides of the Brexit negotiations have resolved to secure the status of expats by the time the UK leaves the EU in March 2019.

But any deal they reach will have to be ratified by the European Parliament and agreed to by member states.

If the UK leaves the EU without a deal then the status of British citizens living in the EU member states is less certain.

The UK would expect member states to allow Britons living in the EU the same rights as it plans to grant EU citizens in the UK but it would be down to individual countries to decide what to do.

Yeah...no prospect of any of that going tits up...
😩