Westminstenders: Don't Panic!

[RedToothBrush]

It's official

Brexit is like an episode of Dads Army with the government, being Captain Mainwaring's trusty band of elite forces doing battle against the evil Mr Barnier.

Yesterday Parliament gave back control to the executive as it surrendered parliamentary sovereignty to Janus faced May. Grieve, it has to be said, truly did look like a broken man as he gave his speech in the commons. Not that we should have too much sympathy. After all he did just put party before country.

So where are we now? The ERG are happy. They have successfully bullied enough until everyone else gave up and folded. They now have no incentive to compromise, as they know that no one can stand up to them. They want no deal, and it's no deal they will force.

The EU are thoroughly fed up and it's difficult to see them do anything but cut us loose saying Brexit means Brexit, this is what you wanted. They have stepped up planning for no deal and their plans were already much more advanced than ours.

We go into the next round of talks with a solution to the Irish Border looking further away than ever. Not helped by the fact that brexit nationalism is restricted to England alone, with many being happy to let NI be sunk into the Irish sea and the favour the rebuilding of Hadrian's wall in order to keep out the foreigners.

It's hard to resist simply sitting down wailing "we doomed". But try to resist and keep saying, you are against this crap. If only so history books don't just say we all agreed to this clusterfuck.

Here have a fluffy bunny to help comfort you.

A few have suggested putting the Brexit threads in an easy to find place on MN. A thread was started about it which only has a few 'comments' .
While there are a lot important threads and topics on MN you would have though that Brexit which IS going to affect absolutely everyone should get a bit more prominence than Katy from Basingstoke who can't decide which shoes to wear.

Fingers crossed and burn great big Joss Sticks that Barnier can nudge / shove the govt into Norway+
probably with Ollie Robbins help pulling from the other side.

And also that it is chosen in time, not as an emergency measure after a Brexit crash & unnecessary misery

I have a few a bit like @susan's around my house, but the grey version.

Food will presumably come in, because they will waive the Customs inspections, (legally or not), but then what happens about outgoing goods?

I wonder if it would be an idea simply to ask MNHQ to rename the "EU Referendum 2016" topic to "Brexit" ?
For clarity and to improve results of any search

However, I think half the country want a hard Brexit and refuse to believe the EU won't cave in at the last moment
and most folk, even Remainers, refuse to believe how bad a no-deal would be, because the govt would never do anything so harmful to the country

That probably leaves a small minority who actually want to discuss facts
and they'll be motivated enough to find this topic

We actually need a Norway +/- i.e. we need to be in the Single Market and Customs Union but don't want Schengen. Many people will have thought that this was what they were voting for anyway. As for being something of a bespoke deal, I think all the EEA countries have bespoke deals.

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I think the lack of general interest on Mumsnet reflects the general lack of interest in the UK I'm afraid.

The Beeb certainly seems to have made a decision to demote Brexit matters to second or third line stories - never headlines any more - it's depressing.

When the vote to hold the Referendum was held I think it was something like 5 out of 6 MPs voted for it, without putting sufficient checks and balances into place. At least this time, a significant number did vote against the Government, so they will be able to hold their heads up. The narrow margin of the vote very much represented the split in the country.

A trivial point, but I have started keeping a list of the Brexiters on these threads who crow and crow. I want to see what they say when the shit really hits the fan. Childish yes, but it made me feel good.

peregrina Emergency plans would be to allow in food from the EU without customs checks
and apply for an emergency WTO 90-day waiver not to let in any food from countries with dodgy food practices, e.g. China with its poisoned baby formula

afaik, in a genuine emergency - which running out of food certainly is - any country can proceed immediately, without waiting for any objections against the waiver

However, since the UK will be a 3rd country, the EU under WTO rules is required to impose the same checks on all UK exports that it would to other 3rd countries with whom it has no arrangement (just N Korea afaik !)

So, no UK exports to the EU and probably to many other countries, since Fox is unlikely to have produced even basic trade arrangements

The EU will send their goods, but come back empty
and the UK would send empty lorries to collect food

The govt would strict;ly control access to the ports - with troops alongside Uk customs staffprobably - and ensure that only Trusted Traders, e.g. the big supermarkets, were allowed to send their trucks,
so that they don't all have to be checked at the UK and EU ends for any UK goods

It will bugger the balance of trade as long as that continues - 6 months+ in the case of UK food exports, because it takes that long for a 3rd country to be approved and get on the EU databases

The Uk has sufficient assets to last like this a long time.

However, I'd expect the pound to plummet further - it may also do so before Brexit, once dealers believe it will be no deal -
and that the IMF and EU will be involved in rescuing the UK from the economic crash

I really, really hope we avoid that disaster, but any deal other than Norway+ - e.g. CETA - is likely to bring some version of it.

Red Box:

"Time is running out and there are so many new and exciting ways to break the government that we have to get through," one cabinet minister tells me.
"We need a whole new month, called Brexember, with an infinite number of days. It never ends..."

I agree with the pp down thread who said that whatever unfortunate circumstances happen as a result of Brexit, the UK gov will find a way to twist the facts and blame the EU.

afaik, in a genuine emergency - which running out of food certainly is - any country can proceed immediately, without waiting for any objections against the waiver

I’m wondering how, if it happens, a genuine food emergency requiring WTO waiver is going to be CogDissed by Leavers.

The Beeb's (well, R4's) presentation of anything Brexit related is execrable, even on so-called serious news programmes. Faintly offhand, tongue in cheek reports even on PM's regular Brexit report. Frequent comments such as "very complicated" "too boring" "excruciating detail" about anything Brexit related or the workings of the EU...even about the behind the scenes discussions yesterday evening before the vote. The whole country is in effect being told "it's just this silly thing going on, you wouldn't understand, don't worry your little head about it". OTOH that's pretty much how politics is always presented, it's no wonder we're in this shit.

requiring WTO waiver is going to be CogDissed by Leavers.

Leavers on previous thread have given the answer: the EU is bullying us.

Incidentally, what were these wonderful trade deals that everyone was going to rush to give us? In exchange for what? We no longer manufacture stuff, so we won't be sending railway locomotives around the world or ships.

www.economist.com/britain/2018/06/20/britains-economy-has-slowed-to-a-standstill-largely-because-of-brexit?cid1=cust/ddnew/email/n/n/20180620n/owned/n/n/ddnew/n/n/n/nNA/Daily_Dispatch/email

Worth it though apparently.......

Madeleina Kay 🇪🇺🇬🇧 #EUsupergirl
Madeleina Kay 🇪🇺🇬🇧 #EUsupergirl
@albawhitewolf
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30m
Me & @Femi_Sorry just participated in a 4-way debate with Leavers on @bbc5live

Debate ended with Lucy from "Leavers of London" demanding "#Brexit at any cost"

When asked to define "any cost" she clarified "30 year economic downturn"

So, most of our working lives?🤔
#StopBrexit

I’m wondering how, if it happens, a genuine food emergency requiring WTO waiver is going to be CogDissed by Leavers.

We're one of the fattest countries in the world, with an obesity crisis that threatens to overwhelm the NHS - here's an instant solution!

You're welcome

p.s. It won't happen, so .... unclench.

The Freight Transporters Association warning again

The FTA represents road, rail, sea & air transport & logistics companies, as well as some big retailers who use these logistics.

(btw, I'm baffled by the (apparent) truck-driver Brexiter who keeps posting on MN that nothing will change on WTO terms - does he ignore the FTA which represents so much of his industry, or is he just completely ignorant ?)

https://fta.co.uk/government-provide-tools-keep-britain-trading

Speaking at the Keep Britain Trading conference in London today, organised by the Freight Transport Association (FTA), Leigh Pomlett, the organisation’s President said:

“The time for political negotiations on Brexit is fast running out, and those of us responsible for keeping Britain trading need urgent assistance and guidance from government.

We are now in a crucial period where businesses (like mine) need to make spending decisions and commit to operating plans for the period when Brexit will be a reality, but we are currently operating “in the dark”.

“Without knowing who we will be employing, how we will be crossing borders, what certifications and permits goods and vehicles will require in order to travel,
business as we know it will be unable to continue.

The logistics industry will be the first part of the economy to encounter the realities of Brexit when vehicles drive off the first ferry to arrive in Calais on 30 March 2019
and we want things to go smoothly, but we need more information about the trading conditions we are to expect once the UK leaves the EU.

The time for talking is over – it’s now time to act.”

FTA, which speaks for the whole of the logistics sector and represents more than 17,000 member organisations, reiterated its call for clarification on the eight points its members need for the continuation of frictionless trade once the UK departs the European Union:

“Simply saying things will be ok is no longer enough,” he continued.

“The logistics sector will be key to making Brexit work for the UK but we can no longer work blind and be left to guess what we may have to do, and when by.

Today’s delegates have been clear in their instructions to government:
logistics wants Brexit to go well for the country, but needs the tools with which to facilitate a smooth departure from the EU for all British business.”

another mention of dual nationality today, in jobwatch. I'm guessing this too is a US company - be curious to speak to the agency on this one.

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Cute bunny.

Place marking

When asked to define "any cost" she clarified "30 year economic downturn"

But a lot of people will be happy with that. Those in the North and parts of the Midlands, where industry was already being lost to Far East competition in the 1960s and then destroyed by Thatcher's policies in the 80s will say that it's fair enough, London has had its own way for far too long, time to share out the bad times.

Today’s delegates have been clear in their instructions to government:

Who the fuck do they think they are !?

It's the government that gives instructions. They'd better get themselves back in line, or they'll be for the high jump. Bloody traitors.