Westminstenders: Don't Panic!

[RedToothBrush]

It's official

Brexit is like an episode of Dads Army with the government, being Captain Mainwaring's trusty band of elite forces doing battle against the evil Mr Barnier.

Yesterday Parliament gave back control to the executive as it surrendered parliamentary sovereignty to Janus faced May. Grieve, it has to be said, truly did look like a broken man as he gave his speech in the commons. Not that we should have too much sympathy. After all he did just put party before country.

So where are we now? The ERG are happy. They have successfully bullied enough until everyone else gave up and folded. They now have no incentive to compromise, as they know that no one can stand up to them. They want no deal, and it's no deal they will force.

The EU are thoroughly fed up and it's difficult to see them do anything but cut us loose saying Brexit means Brexit, this is what you wanted. They have stepped up planning for no deal and their plans were already much more advanced than ours.

We go into the next round of talks with a solution to the Irish Border looking further away than ever. Not helped by the fact that brexit nationalism is restricted to England alone, with many being happy to let NI be sunk into the Irish sea and the favour the rebuilding of Hadrian's wall in order to keep out the foreigners.

It's hard to resist simply sitting down wailing "we doomed". But try to resist and keep saying, you are against this crap. If only so history books don't just say we all agreed to this clusterfuck.

Here have a fluffy bunny to help comfort you.

At a guess I would have said that the Freight Transporters Association were natural Tories, and even they are worried.

But a lot of people will be happy with that

The trouble is a lot of people aren't very bright .

I am worrying myself shitless over this whole disaster, yet most people I talk to think I am nuts! I told my family about applying for another EU citizenship and I know they think I am being silly. Tbh, I can't really see us going elsewhere so perhaps they have a point! We're too old, and both myself and a few of my children have substantial medical conditions so I'm wary of uprooting when we rely so much on the NHS (although how much of an NHS will be left after Brexit is another thing!). I had been thinking of Ireland, although if a crash Brexit hits us I'm guessing Ireland would be pretty badly affected in a knock on as well (or at least in the short term).

So, we'll have to focus on stockpiling! Those of you growing / keeping chickens though - if it does get as bad as predicted, are you not worried that all the unprepared people will just steal your stuff?? I must admit that is putting me off doing anything in our garden as I can't see how we could protect it if things get that bad.

Do any of you remember a Channel 4 programme a few years ago about the power network going down (I think?) - it showed how quickly society fell apart (3 days if I remember correctly). I'm also checking the archives of a blog from a guy who lived through the Argentinian economic collapse (although it's depressing and almost unthinkable to imagine this could be us next year ).

As to apathy and being more visible on Mumsnet, I think I found these threads via an AIBU thread a few weeks ago about stockpiling, but the general consensus on there (and IRL generally) seems to be "Don't be so silly! They won't let it get that bad!"

I really wish I could believe that.

Also, wrt yesterdays shenanigans in parliament - I must admit I don't really get what happened?? Why did Grieve back down? And does it really matter in the end? I mean, apart from the principle of MPs having a say, I don't see what difference having a final say would have made anyway - if May comes back with "no deal or a bad deal", what are they meant to do??

Re May's video statement - I saw it described on Twitter as the "PM is quite clearly sitting on a vibrator"!!

The trouble is a lot of people aren't very bright

You can't say that. Every single voter made an informed decision after reading up on both sides of the argument. No buses were involved. Tabloid newpapers are bought solely to line the cats litter try. Nor can you suggest xenophobia, nationalism or jingoism played a part. Don't even consider using the R word.

Anyone know anything bout Sweden?

Europe Elects
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Sweden, YouGov poll:

SD-EFDD: 29% (+6)
S-S&D: 22% (-1)
M-EPP: 17% (-1)
V-LEFT: 9%
C-ALDE: 7% (-3)
L-ALDE: 4%
MP-G/EFA: 4%
KD-EPP: 3%
Fi-S&D: 1% (-1)

Field work: 15/06/18 – 18/06/18
Sample size: 1,520

George Eaton @georgeeaton
The far-right Sweden Democrats are top in Swedish @YouGov poll. They backed EU referendum ("Swexit") a few days ago.

I find this reassuring in a way. Just to know that despite the example the UK are setting, there are a sizeable number of other crazy people in other countries.

Of course, this is just me trying to put a positive on it. There is a massive incentive in there to make Brexit so shit that everyone else n the EU runs a mile from the prospect. Except I suspect that the idea of leaving the EU is something that simply defies all logic, and it won't make a blind bit of difference anyway.

I love that commonaware is so sure how things will go, wrt food.

I'm sure that no Government that wants to stay in power (and they all do) will let food supplies run out because no food = revolution. It's one of history's more immutable laws. So relax!

Do any of you remember a Channel 4 programme a few years ago about the power network going down (I think?) - it showed how quickly society fell apart (3 days if I remember correctly).

3 days is overly optimistic. 3 hours is probably more like it. Remember how quickly looters move in when big power outages have happened in other countries. People on gas might be better off, obviously.

Well, whaddya know - apparently 29% of Swedes are Nazis now!

Or maybe they just want control of their borders, the single factor that is driving the rise of the new right across Europe, as certain people (cough cough like me cough) have astutely pointed out.

You can have controlled borders and centrist politics, or open border and far right politics as far as the eye can see. I prefer the former, but weirdly many on here seem to prefer the latter.

Hello

Ex supposed to be buying a little house in next six months. Would you?!

The trouble is a lot of people aren't very bright

You can't say that

I just did. And I will say it again. A lot of people aren't very bright. And it's nothing to do with how people voted (although I note you thought it was).

Just remember, 50% of the population are of below average IQ.

May's video was described as a hostage video - and that was the final take! Imagine the first ones? She looks terrified and unconvincing.

Agree with not knowing where we actually are. What if there's a new Govt. before March? I've been pondering the idea that the Tories could campaign on a soft Brexit platform to take the wind out of Labour's sails. Would they be able to do that credibly? There's enough people on Twitter saying they're ex-Tories because of Brexit. (Not me!).

no food = revolution
Alternatively
no food = starvation -> mass emigration. See 19th Century Ireland. (When in fact the country did have food, it was being exported instead of feeding the populace.)

"Everything seems simple when you're a bit simple" is the phrase that echoes round my head constantly these days.

Andrea Jenkyns questioning Guy Verhofstadt yesterday was a fine example.

Laws of unexpected consequences can and do kick in. I am quite sure that Hitler didn't think that Britain would declare war on Germany, they hadn't when he'd invaded Czechoslovakia so why should they when he invaded Poland?

Without knowing enough about Swedish politics, I can't really comment. But I do know that their parliament is elected on a PR system - so even if 29% support SD and that might make them the largest single party ( if the poll is correct), then the corollary of that is that 71% do not

I am quite sure that Hitler didn't think that Britain would declare war on Germany, they hadn't when he'd invaded Czechoslovakia so why should they when he invaded Poland?

One argument that it was Britains fault WW2 was so devastating by not acting sooner. Plus the lingering unpleasant suspicion that the UK stitched up Czechoslovakia by believing Hitlers protestations that he had no further aims in mainland Europe, if we left him alone.

Kiplings dane-geld springs to mind.

Anyway, back to Brexit. So the UK has passed a law. What does that law require the EU to do, and (more interestingly) how does the EU intend to do what the UK tells it ? I think this is probably where we need to bring the Brexiteers into the fold ?

I don't have a problem with PR. The argument used against it is that it leads to weak Governments. Well, we have a fine example of one at present with the FPTP system. The other argument is that it would let people like UKIP in. If people want to be represented by them, they should be allowed to be; but having seen the shambles they have made in both local Government and the European Parliament, that seems to have been enough to show people what they are like, leading to their wipe out in all bar one seat they contested at the last local election.

uk.yahoo.com/sports/news/fa-confirms-joint-investigation-british-183259707.html

Nazis.
English ones.

Just for common.

I'm sure that no Government that wants to stay in power (and they all do) will let food supplies run out because no food = revolution.

That’s one of the comments my dad has made since the start. They just can’t and won’t be putting the country in such a dire position because it wouldn’t good for them.

My worry isn’t even there. My worry is that the governemnet is so entrenched in trying to appease everyone and so entrenched in playing the hard game (who will blink first? The U.K. or the EU) that they will unwillingly go over the limit where you can actually backtrack or accept some unpalatable conditions.

I know a few people who have been working with some of those ‘elite’ on a business pov. That’s exactly how they conduct negociations. They aren’t negociations at all. It’s about standing up firm on completely impossible position until the very last minute and then giving in, hopefully much less than they would if they had negotiated. They are playing on the idea that the other party wants a deal too and will do what it can to conclude the deal.

My worry is that we don’t know what is actually the EU position on that. Do they want a deal wth the U.K.? They certainly have said they are happy to negotiate. That the uk is the one who needs to come with ideas an proposals. But it comes to the push, would they WANT to give a proposal to the U.K.? Do they want to see the UK stay linked with the EU in some way?
There is a lot to say that it would be beneficial for the EU, not the least if it means that they don’t have a very unstable neighbourg. Butbthe UK has been such a pain with them, before the referendum (wanting special conditions) and now after Brexit and during the negociations that they might well want to get rid tbh.

I’m a long term ex-GN lurker.

Commenting on the Swedish poll.

A few years ago I can remember being worried about the possibility of a populist right wing spread happening, not really believing at the time that it would happen. But it did.

Now with children being separated from their parents before being caged, a hard right minority takeover of the U.K. government and various hard right political successes in Europe, I am worried about the rise of fascism.

I worry that the more liberal form of western government is being overtaken by authoritarianism. I also worry that at me age 72, I won’t see it swing back.