Westminstenders: Don't Panic!

[RedToothBrush]

It's official

Brexit is like an episode of Dads Army with the government, being Captain Mainwaring's trusty band of elite forces doing battle against the evil Mr Barnier.

Yesterday Parliament gave back control to the executive as it surrendered parliamentary sovereignty to Janus faced May. Grieve, it has to be said, truly did look like a broken man as he gave his speech in the commons. Not that we should have too much sympathy. After all he did just put party before country.

So where are we now? The ERG are happy. They have successfully bullied enough until everyone else gave up and folded. They now have no incentive to compromise, as they know that no one can stand up to them. They want no deal, and it's no deal they will force.

The EU are thoroughly fed up and it's difficult to see them do anything but cut us loose saying Brexit means Brexit, this is what you wanted. They have stepped up planning for no deal and their plans were already much more advanced than ours.

We go into the next round of talks with a solution to the Irish Border looking further away than ever. Not helped by the fact that brexit nationalism is restricted to England alone, with many being happy to let NI be sunk into the Irish sea and the favour the rebuilding of Hadrian's wall in order to keep out the foreigners.

It's hard to resist simply sitting down wailing "we doomed". But try to resist and keep saying, you are against this crap. If only so history books don't just say we all agreed to this clusterfuck.

Here have a fluffy bunny to help comfort you.

Plans that break WTO rules lead to trade sanctions by WTO members, if the offended parties so choose.

An exception is that in an emergency - which the UK running out of food would certainly be -
a country can have a 90-day WTO import waiver, e.g. to wave through food imports from the EU without inspection, but not food from China or Africa.

However, as UK exports would still not be allowed, that would spike the trade deficit and could not continue for ever

OK Bigchoc, I was thinking of illegality in terms of the NI border.
The EU and (if we get lucky ) WTO 'edges' need a border?

re an earlier point:

JDD on RNorth's blog has continually complained that those around him are too young, ignorant and arrogant,
but the pay scales don't allow for experienced civil servants, only outside consultants like him on short contracts

Today, on www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86911
he warned again that there are only a few days left until the European Council meeting on 28-29 at which the basic Withdrawal Agreement was supposed to be formally agreed by all leaders.

"The EU and the UK agreed that all negotiations would be finished this month."

The EU and the UK all go on holiday soon,
September was agreed as the month that the agreement would be prepared and published to the seperate EU states with October just being a sign off meeting.

The individual States and the EUP then got to examine and vote on the Agreement, some will need referendums if their Parliaments see this as a Treaty change."

54321go It might be hard for you accept, but to some people Brexit is not high on their agenda, Unfortunately most people just live their life not interested in politics, They are going to have to see and experience the Brexit effect good or bad before they get interested, I can understand if that’s a alien concept to you, that’s why the vote should have never gone public or the deal should have been negotiated first and explained to the public before the vote

54321 The GFA doesn't precisely define what is acceptable at the NI border, so in a court of law, the UK might well be OK.
More to the point: any treaty can be repudiated; none are there for all time

Internationally though, the UK's name would be mud
especially in all those countries with a significant population of Irish origin

Trump fans needn't expect he would just spring to the rescue:
a) he would demand a very high price from a desperate UK - nothing free from him
b) he attended at least one Sinn Fein fund-raiser in New York with Gerry Adams, in the 1990s, while the IRA was bombing London.
So he either is sympathetic to the IRA, or he was happy to finance them murdering British people, to curry favour with the Irish American lobby.

@Rosstac
If it wasn't for the amount of money I am losing because of Brexit I wouldn't give a damn personally. Obviously leavers are happy for their piggy bank to be raided too.

Prince William's Visit The British Royal Family’s Complicated History With Nazi Germany

Prince William will follow in the footsteps of his father and grandfather and visit the East Jerusalem tomb of his great-grandmother this week. But while Princess Alice sheltered a Jewish family during the war, three of her daughters were married to prominent Nazis

www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/.premium-the-british-royal-family-s-complicated-history-with-nazi-germany-1.6198604

Also, some powerful investors could be entitled under international law to sue the UK govt for losses
- the Treasury reportedly has ear-marked a few £ billion in case of this

Dos anyone remember the talks with Nissan Just after Brexit and they choose manufacture their latest model in Sunderland after the talks??

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-voters-hard-border-northern-ireland-customs-union-leave-eu-a8414196.html

As why NI actually doesn’t matter in the negotiations.
Most Brexit voters feel a hard border with Northern Ireland would be worth it to leave the customs union
And The phrase Britain has “no selfish strategic or economic interest” in Northern Ireland, was one of the golden keys that unlocked peace in Northern Ireland and was a key mantra of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. The British government has never said this about Scotland, Wales or any other part of the UK.

Basically, no one cares because they’re not really part of the country....

NI isn’t going to be an issue. They will be happy to ‘sacrifice’ NI to get what they want. I’m wondering how they will manage to do that AND get tech support the DUP though.
It also makes you wonder why the DUP has been voting to support the latest Brexit vote. Turkey for Christmas comes to mind

Just back from London - really excellent march, I'm so glad so many turned out.
Has this been posted yet?
news.sky.com/story/liam-fox-prepared-to-accept-a-longer-brexit-transition-period-11414952

I know it isn't up to him to decide (and there may well be no transition at all) but one of the hardliners starting to talk like a transition period is no bad thing is progress.

Does anyone know what the numbers for the UKIP march were?

Prince William's Visit The British Royal Family’s Complicated History With Nazi Germany

Duke of Windsor was under surveillance by the security services as a nazi sympathiser.

It's debatable as to whether his support for Hitler gave the Nazis the impression Britain - led by the upper class elite - would have surrendered, thus leading to WW2 starting early ??????

They can’t sacrifice NI because the DUP will bring them down.

Dos anyone remember the talks with Nissan Just after Brexit and they choose manufacture their latest model in Sunderland after the talks??

Yes, and I often wonder what exactly was said/promised at those talks.

Perth march against Brexit

And as pointed out already, she can't carry on without the DUP's support.

Does she need it anymore ? Surely the Henry VIII clauses mean no more need for parliamentary votes. Job done.

NI polls suggest that the Brexit conundrum has caused some "soft" Unionists to now support a United Ireland, if this is the only way to avoid a hard border.

Maybe some NI Unionists have read, including on Mumsnet, that many rUK - English people, in particular - didn't realise that
a) NI exists and
b) is part of the UK

The ref has revealed the shocking ignorance of many people - including politicians - about basic facts one had assumed they would have

So Brexit may hasten the breakup of the UK, as well as crashing the economy

Make you wonder how many brown envelopes have been passed under tables over the years.

I think the reason for the overwhelmingly nationalist Leavers being so ready to dump NI is that the nationalism driving Brexit is very largely English nationalism.
They wouldn't give up any bit of England, or its resources either.

From online comments, many would dump Scotland & Wales too
but NI is a place that many never fully realised was officially British; hence they wouldn't miss it.

Like it or not, support for Irish unification is no stronger than before the Brexit debate. That might change if there’s no deal and NI sinks as quickly as the rest of the U.K. But it will take a lot for unionists to shift and any who’ve changed their minds already must have been very, very soft unionists.

Maybe some NI Unionists have read, including on Mumsnet, that many rUK - English people, in particular - didn't realise that a) NI exists and b) is part of the UK The ref has revealed the shocking ignorance of many people - including politicians - about basic facts one had assumed they would have

One of the reasons the IRA changed tack in the 1990s, was the realisation (and it took some time for it to sink in) that the average mainland Brit would take as many bombs as the IRA could set without once ever asking "why ?". It was a damascene moment - allied with the realisation that for all the faux outrage the UK government didn't really worry too much over a few dead civilians (the cynic might say the more the merrier - it made the job of doing nothing easier).

One bomb at Canary Wharf - a clear demonstration to the world of "the City" - and heaven and earth are moved for a settlement.

DG Theoretically, May needs the DUP in case Labour ever tries a Vote of No Confidence, to bring the govt down
However, Corbyn seems to be happy to provide unofficially the "Confidence & Support" for which the DUP at least received a bung.

Also, there could well be other measures that the govt needs to pass, that they haven't yet thought of

Totally agree that English nationalism is driving Brexit. Most people in mainland U.K. are utterly clueless about obligations to NI, though everyone becomes an expert when Brexit or abortion is mentioned. The bottom line is that there are obligations outlined in the GFA. The DUP know that and that’s why they’re have TM over a barrel. Like Thatcher before her, TM would dump unionists and NI in a heartbeat but she can’t because of parliamentary arithmetic and the GFA.