Westminstenders: Don't Panic!

[RedToothBrush]

It's official

Brexit is like an episode of Dads Army with the government, being Captain Mainwaring's trusty band of elite forces doing battle against the evil Mr Barnier.

Yesterday Parliament gave back control to the executive as it surrendered parliamentary sovereignty to Janus faced May. Grieve, it has to be said, truly did look like a broken man as he gave his speech in the commons. Not that we should have too much sympathy. After all he did just put party before country.

So where are we now? The ERG are happy. They have successfully bullied enough until everyone else gave up and folded. They now have no incentive to compromise, as they know that no one can stand up to them. They want no deal, and it's no deal they will force.

The EU are thoroughly fed up and it's difficult to see them do anything but cut us loose saying Brexit means Brexit, this is what you wanted. They have stepped up planning for no deal and their plans were already much more advanced than ours.

We go into the next round of talks with a solution to the Irish Border looking further away than ever. Not helped by the fact that brexit nationalism is restricted to England alone, with many being happy to let NI be sunk into the Irish sea and the favour the rebuilding of Hadrian's wall in order to keep out the foreigners.

It's hard to resist simply sitting down wailing "we doomed". But try to resist and keep saying, you are against this crap. If only so history books don't just say we all agreed to this clusterfuck.

Here have a fluffy bunny to help comfort you.

I don't get where you think this shift of opinion comes from..

Sadly I don't think there's much of a shift of overall opinion. I agree many Brexit voters will never shift. Voters like my FIL who is a stereotypical echo of Express headlines.What I meant was I think there's a shift of focus in the pro membership message. So more of a cohesion and confidence in driving home the " you were lied to " message.
Sadly there is still insufficient shift and insufficient leadership though.

I thought today's article on the March from the French Press " Le Monde" was perceptive and interesting. After a good summary of the March it goes on to encapsulate the problem ...

" Behind the emotion, however, these tens of thousands of demonstrators do not indicate a profound change of opinion across the Channel. Polls show that the British remain divided into two roughly equal camps for and against Brexit. The last nine polls indicate a two-point lead for people in favor of staying in the European Union (52% vs. 48%), but this is within the margin of error. According to John Curtice, a pollster at Strathclyde University, everyone stands on their side: 90% of Britons would vote the same way they did two years ago.

The protesters are also cruelly lacking a leader. In London, on Saturday, only two politicians were present: Vince Cable, the leader of the Liberal Democrats (twelve deputies), and Caroline Lucas, coleader of the Green Party (of which she is the only member). In the crowd, a song came back regularly, condemning the absence of the leader of the Labor Party: "Where is Jeremy Corbyn? ".

The latter, long-time Eurosceptic, has been playing balancing since the referendum, criticizing Prime Minister Theresa May's harsh version of Brexit, while rejecting calls for a mild Brexit. Between public opinion that has not changed and the political landscape that is not favorable, the demonstrators will have trouble getting the second referendum they claim.

People generally don't talk about it because we are back in that polite british thing of not wanting to offend people.
I ask people in my generally leave village and many people have changed their mind.
Most people are v v worried including the leave campaigners.
The leave campaigning councillor has left ukip andhas gone v quiet on Twitter. He only talks about sports stuff now.

Link to the French article addressing:

1. Only tiny shift in voters views.
2. Lack of a 'big' leader.

https://mobile.lemonde.fr/referendum-sur-le-brexit/article/2018/06/23/a-londres-deux-ans-apres-le-brexit-je-ne-reconnais-plus-mon-pays53202622_4872498.html

Perhaps if Boris is sacked for his “f#!* business” comment then he can switch and be the new EU champion. He has shown himself to be fairly consistent in his inconsistency over the years.

Apparently the EU diplomat who spilled the beans said: “It is shocking for him [Boris]to declare he would take the battle directly to Theresa May and speaking so openly about it. He wasn’t hiding his intentions at all.
I was shocked by how crude and crass he was, as if he didn’t care for the consequences and especially not the economic consequences of Brexit."

Hi lonely, looked out for you but knew I’d be unlikely to see you in that crowd - what struck me was that Parliament Square was absolutely rammed, very many more than last time - joined the march at same place, Green Park, and it took ages to even get out of the park...a good day and had some interesting conversations. 3 hrs travel there, 4 hrs at march and 3 hrs back made for a surprisingly uplifting day...

I love the idea that people were chanting "Where's Jeremy Corbyn?". Let's hope he saw that/heard about that too.

I don’t think opinion has shifted round here and given a people’s vote the majority would vote for an option with the least freedom of movement. That’s not to take away from the great march yesterday.

The silver lining of the Boris remark is that there may now be a rethink of all those cheques to the Tory that business leaders used to write.

Business paying for their own funeral - to be earlier !

I agree, overall opinion hasn't changed enough. It may well take a catastrophic Brexit to achieve a significant change of opinion.

I think there's an even chance of which way things could go:

1. BINO - Norway+ model. Some leavers would whinge and moan for a while, but immigration would probably be down anyway as the UK has shown it's not a very nice place to live and the government could probably put some kind of spin on things, like actually implementing existing rules on Freedom of movement. Also, hopefully things will stabilise in Syria and the surrounding region and the refugee crisis will lessen.
2. Crash out - economic shock followed by a decline in industry and financial service sector. Possible trouble in NI. Eventually (after how long?) reapplying to join the EEA. Same end result but with a generation ruined. This scenario might put the Europe argument to rest for good. Wipe-out of the Conservative Party?

The only third alternative I can envisage results in terminal decline of the UK.

I'm still glad I marched though. I live in the Brexit heartlands so it was encouraging to be surrounded by so many like-minded people.

Trouble is most people in this country are frighteningly politically ignorant and unengaged - haven't got a clue about how political institutions operate, their different roles etc. They'll proudly admit their disinterest in politics like a badge of honour. - my dp being one of them ! Just look at general and local election turnouts - consistently abysmal ! So that makes them easy targets for manipulation by papers like the mail and express with their right wing rhetoric. I only discuss brexit with a couple of close friends, it's never mentioned at work. It definitely seems as if people have moved on and are just blindly expecting TM et al to do their job, unaware of all the Jacob R-M/ erg shenanigans going on behind the scenes. My lovely normally commonsensical Dp voted leave - despite being determinedly uninterested in politics - still hasn't changed his mind even though he's now fully aware of the shitstorm that's proceeding - he's just got this fatalistic trust in them that they'll try to the right thing for the country

What about the Canada model? I know it’s only marginally better than crashing out but I think that could be where we’re heading. I don’t think leavers will except bino unless it’s sprung on the them at the last second.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/gavin-williamson-theresa-may-defence-spending-row-bring-down-government-20bn-a8413916.html?amp&utm_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
Gavin Williamson 'threatens to bring Theresa May's government down unless PM commits extra £20bn to defence'

‘I made her – and I can break her,’ defence secretary allegedly boasted

There was no immediate official confirmation of claims Mr Williamson has warned the prime minister that if she did not commit the money then Tory MPs would vote down the next budget.

Up to 20 Tory MPs are now threatening to rebel if the Treasury and No 10 cannot find more money for defence, but departments including the Home Office are also pushing for extra cash.

A delegation led by Graham Brady – the chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee – are planning to meet the prime minister in the coming weeks to urge her to be more generous

Arhhhh sigh

A few things here:

May magically gave Hunt his money for the NHS so now everyone is trying the same.

This is definitely being seen as an issue over the leadership of the Tory party - so a) Hunt has way more power in Cabinet than the newspapers are reflecting openly, b) the money was to appease him, c) the money is seen as a boost to his future prospects.

Gavin Williamson really does see himself as a man for the top job and he needs some publicity plus it sounds a lot like he is the choice of the men in grey suits.

And lastly, should be worried by demands from the Department of Defense for money?

In the context of Brexit, and there already being talk of tax rises to cover the NHS this doesn't even seem feasible. Unless there is a pressing need to boost defence.

And arguably in post apocalyptic Brexiteers, will we need the army to manage civilian life.

I'm very impressed by the people who came from far and wide to the march (met a Cornwall group who were on the road at 3am) and think this shows it's not just a London backlash.

Here's a good 'What's happened in 2 years, where are we now and what could be next?' kind of round-up:

chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2018/06/two-years-into-brexit-disaster.html?m=1

In the absence of any effective brake being put upon them the Brexiters are able to march us on, like First World War generals, high on gimcrack patriotism, plethorically flushed with self-righteous certainty, prideful of their own willed and wilful ignorance - urging the troops to one more big push, regardless of – no, glorying in - the resultant slaughter.

The more damaging and impossible the plan, the more viciously they wave the tattered banner of ‘the will of the people’, virtually the only argument they now make for a policy that the majority of people no longer support. Meanwhile, many who know full well that what is unfolding is a disaster effectively shrug their shoulders and say that nothing can be done and that, no matter how foolish it is, it must be done.

And, would people still be blithely nonchalant about a no-deal exit if they knew this?

There could be a no deal crash out in March 2019, with unimaginable consequences – shortages of food and medicine, suspension of flights and much else - in terms of economic hardship and political convulsions. That is both possible, and for a small hard core of Brexiters, desirable

Came across this post I wrote 2 years ago on Facebook (from their Memories "On this day" reminders)

Nowt much has changed since then - although if anything the prognosis is worse as we appear to be racing head first towards the wall the hardest possible Brexit or No Deal.

But at least I finish the post with hope : a hope that isn't open to England

^What's on my mind?

The sadness that a Right Wing coup has been enacted on the backs of a (conned) Left Wing protest vote.
Pride that Scotland was not conned.
Anger that the young will have to pay for the selfishness and short sightedness of the old.
Fear of a de-stabilised Europe, a rise of extremism and a risk to the peace not just of Europe but of the world.
A sense of "I told you so" to those who voted No in the Indyref because they believed in Europe.
Annoyance that the Remain campaign didn't challenge the immigration arguments when they were conflated with the Refugee crisis.
Annoyance that they didn't challenge the lies about the lack of democracy.
Annoyance that it wasn't explained to the electorate what a tiny proportion of overall government spending the EU "takes".
Annoyance that the journalists and Main Stream Media didn't do their jobs so that this was exposed, so it was left to the keyboard warriors on Social Media to do this - meaning a reduced reach, especially to the old.
Anger that the poor will pay for this while the rich will profit.
Fear that the EU protections (of the environment, of workers' rights, of consumers' rights, of public safety) will be diluted or removed.
Irritation that some people didn't read beyond the (misleading or downright lying) headlines and check out the facts and figures that were being quoted.

All of this tempered ever so slightly by a glimmer of hope that this might leave to Scottish Independence - but I don't think as a nation we're ready yet for yet another referendum too soon, much as I'd like one. But here's hoping.^

I think the 'Where's Jeremy Corbyn' chants may be counter productive if the movement is seen as being anti Corbyn. I get it but think it creates more divisions.

I’m interested in what people think Labour should do and what they might do. I suspect they’re waiting for a clear indication that the tide has turned before coming out for EEA or BINO.

If that is indeed Labour's strategy (and I think it is - either that or Corbyn really is a Disaster Socialist ) then they are as guilty as the Conservatives of putting Party before Country.

They should be promoting what they believe is best for the country, not waiting to decide which way the wind is blowing

Meanwhile the UK is an oil tanker heading straight for the reef of a No Deal or Hard Brexit - and will contaminate its own ground with its own former riches

I thought Gavin Williamson lost a lot of credibility when Richard Madeley pulled the plug on him.

Surely the Grey Suits can find a better champion than a man with the asperations of Francis Urquhart and the charisma of Roland Rat!

I dunno. They’re only getting away with being undecisive because the Tories seem even more split. Surely openly opting for a soft Brexit now would be sensible? Hard to know if they have an actual strategy or endgame, but think probably not. What a time to have such dreadful MPs on both sides.

If Roland Rat's standing I'll vote for him!
I don't know why any of us are bothering with discussing this at all.
MNHQ can't be bothered to make it a prominent feature ( I wrote to them specifically) and as a topic is less important than Sandy from Kegworth who can't decide which shoes to wear today.
The fact that the UK has got the process of Brexit SO wrong and that we are all suffering now and it will escalate should be a matter of importance for everyone.

* Re Labour: I suspect they’re waiting for a clear indication that the tide has turned before coming out for EEA or BINO.*

I think this is exactly how it works. A Mum at our school works as research person for a Labour MP and she said they just try and stay slightly ahead of the public's position.

Born- I wondered if you were at the march too. Next time we should co ordinate.

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Health Sec Jeremy Hunt says that it’s “completely inappropriate” for Airbus to “make threats” that businesses need clarity and certainty, and that they should get behind PM at a critical moment in negotiations

A French company shouldn't make financial planning decisions based on risks that British politics present them with. They should just shut up and take the finanical hit of the ideological whims of the British Government. Airbus should support Conservative Party and hold no alternative political views.

In no way is this a pitch for power by Jeremy Hunt nor is it an attempt to smear Airbus / the EU.

We shall ignore all other lobby groups and businesses who are fine to put pressure on government if it happens to be what the government wants to hear. We shall ignore how Airbus contributes 20% of the cost of being in the EU to the British economy.

This sounds a lot like Hunt (the richest MP in the Cabinet) is up for Hard Brexit.

There's a lot being made on social media regarding the where's Jeremy corbyn chants ignoring that there were chants aimed at TM, bojo, and rees-mogg amongst others too. Which is wholly unsurprising.

My favourite was hey hey Theresa may, how many lies have you told today