Westminstenders: Don't Panic!

[RedToothBrush]

It's official

Brexit is like an episode of Dads Army with the government, being Captain Mainwaring's trusty band of elite forces doing battle against the evil Mr Barnier.

Yesterday Parliament gave back control to the executive as it surrendered parliamentary sovereignty to Janus faced May. Grieve, it has to be said, truly did look like a broken man as he gave his speech in the commons. Not that we should have too much sympathy. After all he did just put party before country.

So where are we now? The ERG are happy. They have successfully bullied enough until everyone else gave up and folded. They now have no incentive to compromise, as they know that no one can stand up to them. They want no deal, and it's no deal they will force.

The EU are thoroughly fed up and it's difficult to see them do anything but cut us loose saying Brexit means Brexit, this is what you wanted. They have stepped up planning for no deal and their plans were already much more advanced than ours.

We go into the next round of talks with a solution to the Irish Border looking further away than ever. Not helped by the fact that brexit nationalism is restricted to England alone, with many being happy to let NI be sunk into the Irish sea and the favour the rebuilding of Hadrian's wall in order to keep out the foreigners.

It's hard to resist simply sitting down wailing "we doomed". But try to resist and keep saying, you are against this crap. If only so history books don't just say we all agreed to this clusterfuck.

Here have a fluffy bunny to help comfort you.

I thought I saw something today about TM not having sufficient majority or something so her line has to weaken. I can't find it now.

Theresa May is a black and white procedural manager. She has low trust and doesn't particularly seek advice.
She does everything to the extreme version - see home office. She doesn't really take advice except from a couple of people and within that she has poor judgement (Timothy and Hill).

She is not bright enough to do nuance. She was only a remained because Cameron told her to be. Someone sold her a brexit narrative at some point (probably the Singapore one) and she's sticking to it.
She doesn't have the intelligence to do nuance and she certainly does not do ideas (hence sticking to it).
My worry is brexit is being seen by both main parties as a way to create a day zero to remark the country in their image.

I hope it's not true. Countries do better when they evolve and revolution tends to be short-lived. Even in Russia, revolution became a different version of tsars and surfs. Western type democracy didn't really work because it wasn't part of their history.

We may revolution and then return in some ways to a version of ourselves and historically wonder what happened.

Serfs not surfs!

The trouble with revolutions is that they’re rarely bloodless.

The new funding structure for the Bank of England suggests that the Treasury thinks the proverbial is going to hit the fanan*_

Philip Hammond sprung a surprise by announcing a new era in the relationship between the government and the Bank of England:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/financial-relationship-between-the-treasury-and-the-bank-of-england?utmsource=101cf708-ce2a-4a19-9877-d4395bffaa19&utmmmedium=email&utmcampaign=govuk-notifications&utmmcontent=immediate

… "this appears to be a charade almost certainly designed to get around government accounting requirements.

It would seem to me as if the increase in risk that the Bank is meant to bear
and the supposed right it has to retain profit within certain boundaries
is all an attempt to shift the Bank of England's operations off the central government balance sheet post-Brexit.
…
I think the intention is instead
to bolster the balance sheets of commercial banks if they suffer significant risk post-Brexit.
…
there are signs that the Treasury and the Bank of England think that things will be extremely difficult post-Brexit.

There are provisions in the new arrangements for 'collateral haircuts'.
In other words, if this new lending is asset-backed, as is likely, then the Bank is anticipating falls in asset prices.
…
the logic in question very clearly suggests that
the Treasury and Bank of England are in practice planning for a hard Brexit
and a consequent credit crisis for which they are creating the possibility of emergency liquidity funding for commercial banks
…
the Treasury so lacks confidence in the government that it is outsourcing the saving of the economy < to the BoE >
…
the Bank will, no doubt, deliver another emergency package that will favour the City and those who are associated with it
…
My summary is you should worry: the Treasury clearly is.

And they may be right to do so, even if it looks to me as if they are delivering the wrong solution."

That's an astute assessment theworldisfullofgs - but I wish it weren't so, so and and and as well (I keep reading your name as "the world is full of bullshit" )

A very good atmosphere on the march; very friendly as always. Huge numbers: we stood still for 1.5 hours at the start in Pall Mall waiting to go. It seems the police were surprised by the numbers (one PC told us they were expecting 35,000) and held it back.
Recurring themes in the speeches: 'You can't build a new society on lies and betrayal', 'the NHS and public services would be destroyed', 'this is just the start', 'unite across all parties to fight', we'll win because we are right', 'we are the true patriots', and the ubiquitous chant 'Where's Jeremy Corbyn?'

A very positive day, I felt.

My user name used to be 'theworldisfullofidiots' post brexit. It caused lots of consternation.

I changed it as promised post the windrush when lots of mumsnetters helped me keep a thread going to publicise the petition.

A 'g' (gangster) is a term of great respect according to my teenagers.

Sorry for all the typos.

Great that so many marched. Marching and campaigning can change the world, even if it takes a long time (see the repeal of the 8th amendment). But I can’t help feeling we’re already on our way to a terrifying new era. I worry about us all, but especially about migrants, foreigners, liberals, feministS and progressives. The right is on the march across the world.

Read this earlier.

@SimonTilford
Simon Tilford Retweeted The Columnist
Thoroughly depressing but absolutely spot-on thread by @Sime0nStylite

twitter.com/SimonTilford/status/1010569992209883136

Lots of interesting subtweets within that thread. twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1010557290972352513

The right is on the march but people aren't being quiet. I'll be watching what happens in Turkey tomorrow - huge opposition rallies

(paywall) Booker’s lone voice warning at Torygraph
Westminster versus the real world

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/23/co2-brexit-yawning-divide-told-truth/

…Again, after so much attention has, for months, been lavished on the largely irrelevant pseudo-drama unfolding at Westminster over the EU Withdrawal Bill,

it is only now that the real story has begun seriously to break surface.

This is the way so many British industries have at last been waking up to the horrendous implications
of Theresa May’s decision in January last year that we should exclude ourselves from continued membership of the single market.

The starkest message came from the president of the CBI, warning that
“there are sectors of manufacturing… in the UK which risk becoming extinct”

Although he particularly singled out the &potentially catastrophic consequences for our motor industry,&

he also mentioned the “hundreds of millions… invested by UK pharmaceutical and finance companies”
to allow them to continue trading with the EU by relocating part of their operation to the continent.

There is no way, he said, that those fondly imagined future trade deals with the rest of the world could make up for the damage already resulting from our decision to leave the “internal market”.

Then there is the announcement by Airbus that it may have to quit the UK, with a direct loss of 14,000 jobs and possibly 100,000 more.

This follows the recent letter to Michel Barnier on behalf of our entire aviation industry,
as it wakes up to the fact that virtually all it does is only legally authorised by the EU.

Dropping out of this system means that we risk losing not just our ability to make aircraft
but even to keep our airports open to international traffic.

A Freight Transport Association conference last week was also told of the bewildering lack of planning and information coming from the Government,
and heard apocalyptic warnings of the threat now hanging over our cross- Channel trade.

The crippling delays created by new border controls could not just turn Kent into a lorry park but bring this entire trade to a halt.
…
Now there are just five days before the European Council at which we were supposed to agree the terms of our withdrawal.

What is about to happen is entirely our own choice,
and we must just watch the consequences unfold.

Yes, Swedish I've been really impressed with opposition to Erdogan.

I thinkJohnson really wants to be sacked. There is no other reasonable explanation. Doesn't want to be anywhere the chickens are coming home to roost. All the tall tale chickens.

Most of the right remains business-oriented, but have not yet woken up to the serious dangers for business from the new right

However, a no-deal Brexit may reveal to the rest of Europe and the US voters what happens when populists policies push aside experts and common sense,
in favour of nationalist delusion and empty alt-right slogans, spoon-fed by Breitbart

may reveal to the rest of Europe and the US voters what happens when populists policies push aside experts and common sense
There was a moment on Nov 8th 2016 at about 2am when I thought the idiocy of brexit had been useful to swing it for Hilary.
Still could, not for Hilary, but........

Crunch time could be at the end of June, if the European Council of Ministers does not authorise further trade talks
and possibly not even a transition.

The UK govt may decide to walk out and go for hard Brexit
or to cave in on red lines and go for Norway+

May's tactics so far mean she will try to kick the can down the road and avoid confronting Bojo & DD

• if the Council feel it is in the interests of the E27 to let her.

Very glad I went on the march today, although after the hot sun and standing/marching for hours my poor exhausted body has brought it home to me that I may be getting a bit long in the tooth for this kind of thing. It was a long day and I still can't feel my legs below the knees!

Still, met some lovely people and heard some great speeches, so well worth the effort. Plus realising how good it felt to be among kind, concerned and tolerant people who fear we're heading for a brick wall, just as I do. Such a nice change from being surrounded by unthinking and jeering Leavers telling me to just suck it up. Really hauled me out of the slough of despond I've been floundering in for ages now.

Final thoughts: Shame Caroline Lucas is retiring, she's a seriously impressive and committed politician. David Lammy's passionate speech and advice that if youre a Tory voter in Chuka Amunna's constituency, vote Labour; if you're a Labour voter in Anna Soubry's, vote for her. Cross-party action is the only way in this non-party matter and party must not come first. The woman from Germany (Pulse in Europe?) with the love letters to their UK friends was most heartening - good to know that there are people in Europe who appreciate the crap we're putting up with and the dark road we're heading into. At least they understand that the 48% can't and shouldn't be forgotten or rendered voiceless. Shame these thoughts haven't percolated through more widely here yet.
Also, no clashes or disturbances, just good humoured and tolerant people marching together with a common aim. Lots of relaxed and smiling police, who knew we weren't going to play silly buggers and seemed largely supportive (at least of our right to be there).

Oh, and the frequent chanting of the question seemingly on most people's lips: "Where's Jeremy Corbyn?" Was surprised he didn't come onto the stage to milk the chant like at Glastonbury. Missed a trick there .

Still so wound up and too tired to sleep. Will have to resort to hard drugs (or at least a sleeping pill).

Unfortunately a combination of pale Notherm skin, plus no hat or sun-cream havig given me a rather gammon-like tint

Here's an arty photo of the sky and our EU bunting, right by the Pall Mall sign.

My favourite banner is the simple " We're British. We're marching. Things must be bad."

There's definite shift of focus and awareness of the 'we were lied to' message emerging from both the banners and the speakers. I think this is immensely powerful.

I don't fully understand why the last two marches were barely reported. By contrast this one was being reported even before we started moving. Is it purely the two year anniversary aspect or are newspapers responding to the increasing shift of opinion?

Also here's a ( not very good) pic of Vince Cable, Gina Millar, Caroline Lucas's arm and Anna Soubry.

Great photos LonelyPlanet!

I hope that is true about Boris Cailleach1 - hope he does get the sack as he certainly deserves it - but he seems to be using that underground tunnel between Downing St and the Foreign office in which to conduct far too many treacherous machinations and intrigues atm.

Hope you can rest up a bit today Hasenstein

lonelyplanetmum I don’t get where you think this shift of opinion comes from, ok yesterday you were surrounded by like minded people,
I travel around the country with my job, I can tell you two things,
Firstly the majority of people don’t even talk or are concerned about Brexit, The people that do the number 1 concern is stopping uncontrolled immigration, not bothered about being in the EU either way would stay if immigration was curtailed.
I would say out of 10 people I meet on a weekly basis, ( I don’t work in London) 4- not interested in Brexit at all, thought it was done, 3- just want immigration sorted, 1- just hate the EU and it’s waste, 2- want to stay in the EU , better the devil you know,