Westministenders: Stalling for Time

[RedToothBrush]

After 14 defeats, the Withdrawal Bill exited the Lords. In much worse condition than anyone dared to predicted.

Now we have those who were viciously against Lords reform, all of a sudden shouting about how much we desperately need it. Well fancy that. Tradition isn't so attractive if you aren't getting your own way.

Daniel Hannan has suddenly admitted that Brexit is not 'going to plan' (there was one?) and Johnson is still his weekly resignation threat.

It now throws things back into Corbyn's court. The Tory Rebel Forces think that they have the numbers to stay in the Single Market, but are blocked by Corbyn's opposition to it.

The decision on the customs union has effectively been pushed back to the Autumn by May, but we have to make a decision about the Irish border by June or trade talks won't go ahead as planned.

The trouble is that the Cabinet can not decide on which option they want to take, but neither is particularly viable anyway. Max Fac means a border in the Irish Sea which the DUP won't like and the Customs Partnership isn't acceptable to the Empire Tories. In any case it seems unlikely that either option could get through the Commons in their current form due to the growing number of Tory Rebel Forces.

May also has a problem with the grass roots. It is more or less impossible for her to deliver the Brexit they desire whatever she tries.

The growing backlash about the hostile environment also undermines the point of Brexit in reducing immigration. Its is growing apparent, WHY we need immigration and that the people who are being targeted for deportation are simply the easiest to pick off and not the ones that people see as 'a problem'. Indeed you have to wonder about how many immigrants ARE a problem. The idea to control immigration after Brexit was not through the border but through the hostile environment, yet this seems now to be something that will be impossible to continue with politically.

Leave.EU have now been referred to the police for breaking Electoral Law. It also turns out that they found numerous ways to beat the spending limit legally. The female data controller has also been found to have data protection law. Meanwhile Banks and Wigmore as well as Nix (CA and SCL), Cummings (Vote Leave) and Silvester (AIQ) have all been summoned to appear because the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. Zuckerberg also does not appear to have completed his answers to the committee as Facebook have had their homework deadline extended to Monday (and has been asked to appear by the 24th May whilst he is in Europe).

Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee Dates
Electoral Commission - Tuesday 15th May
Silvester - Wednesday 16th May
Cummings / Nix - Summoned to appear Tuesday 22nd May
Banks / Wigmore - Tuesday 16th June

Also in parliament in next weeks is and interesting looking ten minute rule bill named 'Representation of the People (Gibraltar)' - Tuesday 15th May

Anyway, we are all set for the predictable 'who blinks first' brinkmanship with the UK aware that if the EU don't blink we go over the cliff and parliament aware that if May delays long enough she bypasses parliamentary democracy or put it in a position with a gun to its head.

Who is looking forward to this year's 'row of the summer'?
It could be a long, hot summer.

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision and the UK to get some points and not come last. Its not going to happen is it?

Apparently May is increasingly concerned about the future of the Union.

Not before time!

Reading the Times article it seems to be a bit of a catch 22 as to whether there is a Referendum about the re-unification of Ireland. There need to be sufficient numbers who want it, but how do you ascertain that there are sufficient numbers without a poll of all the electorate? Since the NI Assembly has been suspended we can't say that Sinn Fein would just need a majority there to press the issue.

I'm going from Leeds - but not on the coach - good lord the misery! And afterwards I'm going to see An Ideal Husband (or is it Lady Windemere's fan? not The Importance of Being Ernest, anyway) Can't wait.
(At the last big march I went to see 'a play about a bank robbery' by the mischief theatre company, afterwards. I do enjoy mixing political activism with legitimate theatre )

Yes, it is somewhat of a catch 22, Peregrina. Plus the fact that RoI also has to vote for reunification. The numbers have not been there for that to seem successful. But the more financial pain from Brexit/anti-Irish sentiment from the UK, the more attractive UI will become all over the island of Ireland.

A referendum on Irish Unity is in the hand of the NI Sec of State, hence in practice of the PM

Corbyn has always said Ireland should be united, so if May ignores the GFA and later he becomes PM, he might call a ref - if his Republican chums think their time has come.

Theresa May could call a ref if she has decided to ditch the GFA and wants to emphasise / justify that Ni "belongs" to the Uk
BUT, she might do a Cameron and outsmart herself - as she did with the 2017 GE !

I have even heard that some in the DUP want a ref as an NI power play, expecting to have a good majority for remaining in the UK.
Under the GFA, it would then be 7 years until another one is allowed, so securing their grip again.
However, Arlene is unlikely to take the risk, because she should know better than May that it would be a risk

London Review of Books by William Davies:

Good long analysis of Tory Brexiters, very interesting about the kind of backgrounds & experiences that formed them and what their real motivations are.

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v40/n05/william-davies/what-are-they-after

"Britain's misfortune is that matters of the greatest seriousness are now in the hands of basically unserious people."

Been googling a bit. What about wash-up? Just trying to gauge how likely it is that another GE could be called.

Thanks for the detailed reply RTB

Beautiful writing in that LRB article bcf: 'Moral hazard' and the delinquent tendencies of the ERG boys. Yes, lonely I always like discovering new bits of london and having treats on these trips in. The women's rally was in a gorgeous little square near HOC called St John Smith Square; lovely concert hall there too. and the EU offices. I never knew it was there.

When the legal case for Westminster overruling Holyrood is heard... will it be in a Scottish court or an English one?

The primacy of Scots Law has already had the Supreme Court unilaterally imposed upon it (although I believe that Scots Law Lords need to be represented on it )

The UK Government has already appealed to the Supreme Court, claiming that the Scottish and Welsh Brexit Bills are unconstitutional. I think it's due to be heard at the end of June.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-scotland/uk-appeals-to-supreme-court-to-stop-scottish-welsh-brexit-bills-idUKKBN1HO1C1

Slightly different from what was voted on today but absolutely relevant.

Labour HQ replied to my letter:

In order to avoid a cliff-edge for our economy, Labour would seek to negotiate a transitional period on the same basic terms as now – including within the Single Market and a Customs Union with the EU, abiding by the common rules of both. Beyond that, Labour would seek to negotiate a new comprehensive UK-EU customs union to ensure that there are no tariffs with Europe, to support our manufacturing industry and to help avoid any need for a hard border in Northern Ireland. This arrangement would ensure the UK would have an appropriate say on any new trade deal terms. Labour would also negotiate a new and strong relationship with the single market that retains the benefits, including full tariff-free access, no new impediments to trade and put a floor under existing rights, standards and protections.
A Labour Government would immediately guarantee existing rights for all EU nationals living in Britain and secure reciprocal rights for UK citizens who have chosen to make their lives in EU countries.

Etc etc. Sounds great.

Half of me thinks, 'Bless 'em, they really believe all that is possible under Brexit.'
The other half of me thinks, 'That all seems suspiciously like being in the EU, why don't they just say we should stay?'

Hester - I got an almost identical response! More meaningless drivel (particularly as JC has already ruled out the Single Market). I may have sent a bad tempered reply...

Labour us just cake and eat it. They know is impossible, which doesn't matter as they are not in government.

I'm slightly obsessed by Lilico's behaviour atm - can't tear myself away. . He's currently both patronising and gaslighting Jessica Simor, QC.

Jessica Simor QC #FBPE
Replying to @andrew_lilico

On the basis of literally no deal that is the reality. It's not a question of belief - we'd be dependent on the EU27 looking kindly on us and disapplying the rules. But with air transport we need a deal in any event

‏Andrew Lilico Retweeted Jessica Simor QC #FBPE
Jeepers. What is wrong with you?

Jessica Simor QC #FBPE
‏Replying to @andrew_lilico

As far as I know not that much. A few aches and pains - not so young anymore.

Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico

As I've said before, you must be a very smart lady & I'm sure you've achieved many splendid things. Don't be like this. Get a grip of yourself. I'm sure there's much more you can do. Don't dig holes like these. It could take you years to recover fully.

Thank you BigChoc for that London Review of books article. It was really interesting.

I have always been completely mystified about the Conservative ideology. Why take the immense risk of our position as the fifth strongest economy? Why do that? The ‘Singapore’ explanation of a chance of low corporate tax and even more unregulated profit for the elite never seemed a convincing explanation to me.That is unlikely to result in our ascending to 4 th place or higher so why take the risk of sending us spiralling downwards. That article nails it.

“There seems little doubt that for many of Thatcher’s followers the free-market experiment hasn’t gone far enough. As long as there is an NHS, a welfare state and a public sector that is more European than American in scale, we will never truly discover what the British people are made of, because they will never be forced to find out. Steve Bannon, the former Trump strategist, has often voiced the opinion that America’s only hope of moral cleansing lies in war. Tory Brexiteers tend not to go that far, but they may well be holding out for a milder version of the same idea, an extreme of economic hardship that means government is no longer capable of picking up the pieces. No wonder families in County Durham or the Welsh Valleys have experienced multiple generations of unemployment, they argue: there’s been adequate unemployment benefit. The estimated £80 billion hit to the public finances caused by Brexit might change that. ......
The optimistic version of this story is that it’s only when the chips are down we discover what people are truly capable of. Brexit might reveal reserves of courage and innovation that have lain dormant for decades, held back by the interferences of bureaucracy and public spending. And if it doesn’t? Well, then the truth is laid bare. “

I really do think that this is it. It’s a sort of instinctive self flagellation ideology from the ERG weirdos many with military or ex pat empire backgrounds. It's a sort of defective instinct and obviously not thought through. I also think that Corbyn kind of agrees ,sort of there has to be acute hardship before change happens. Except his end goal is different.

On Corbyn's part it all fits in with the voter nostalgia for hard times too. It's sort of like the Monty Python four Yorkshireman sketch " There were a hundred and sixty of us living in a small shoebox in the middle of the road."

I think the key issue that has been forgotten by both ends of the spectrum is that cautious gentle change should have be attempted coherently and continuously first. This needed to be over a prolonged period, and that hasn’t been attempted consistently by a succession of governments.

It's all tear down/rebuild.

Revolution in other words.

I agree lonelyplanet the LRB article was really insightful and interesting.
Hardrighters want us to suffer so we can somehow inculcate that 'wartime' spirit again. Tolerate hardship because we're all in it together etc etc...
But the thing is, we're not all in it together. Most people don't have the buffer zones and safety nets that the rich do, and a 20% drop in income, for example, means many people will go under. Alienation. Disengagement from societal standards. We're already seeing hope disappearing for many young people which I'm sure is something to do with the rise in crime and drug taking.
It also ignores any philosophical ideas of human equality; that all people are worth nurturing.
We're getting so far away from the relatively fair, decent and caring society that I grew up in, that it scares me.

Revolution in other words

Well I said in June 2016 it was a coup de deceit, not a coup de force.
So I'm trying to assess statistically if revolutions generally are worth it? The US one was in the long run?

Revolutions in the world generally seem to lead to regimes just as or more repressive than the ones they deposed don't they? Chairman Mao, Castro, Robespierre? But it is different on whether you look at the long term or short term period afterwards.If there is a long term improvement is then is hard to assess the extent to which the revolution contributed to the outcome.

Feeling out of my depth...again.

Interesting, lonely I wonder if he is a foot soldier for the delinquents, she did name names in her great speech at the weekend.

@andrew_lilico
"can't get off the island or get food or medical supplies in" - I hope she doesn't truly believe any of this; but I fear she does.

@JMPSimor
Quite right. We absolutely don't. Entirely up to us if we can't get off the island or get food or medical supplies in. Entirely up to us.

Turks are now seeking refuge in Greece too.
30 Turks a day have fled to Greece since snap election decision
stockholmcf.org/30-turks-a-day-have-fled-to-greece-since-snap-election-decision/

.....has often voiced the opinion that America’s only hope of moral cleansing lies in war. Tory Brexiteers tend not to go that far,.....

Perhaps a memory stirs - when we last had the 'moral cleansing' of war, it didn't go the way the right wing wished. Churchill was trounced in the election, and Attlee's Government, elected on a landslide, was far more socialist than any plans Corbyn has.

www.rte.ie/amp/963831/?__twitter_impression=true
UK 'considering third option' over customs dilemma

Let me guess. It's called something like, I can't quite think of it... Oh yes I got it... 'The Customs Union'?

The British government is examining the possibility of the UK as a whole remaining aligned to the EU Customs Union for several years to come as a way of resolving the dilemma over its future relationship with the EU and drawing some of the controversy out of the Irish "backstop" obligation, RTÉ News understands.

Oh what a surprise...

It wouldn't be to do with Commons mathematics and Tory rebels would it? And the fact that everything else is impossible in the time frame? And everything else isn't compatible with the GFA?

Interesting to see this coming from Irish news isn't it?

About the LRB article and Conservative ideology. There’s a telling episode in the 1970s documentary series The World at War - the East End was being heavily bombed in 1940. Churchill visited, smiling and waving with his cigar. Watching the women trying to rescue bits and pieces from a flattened block of flats he said “We can take it!” and they answered, “We’re the ones that take it, mister, you’re out of the way.”