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Brexit

Westministenders: Stalling for Time

963 replies

RedToothBrush · 12/05/2018 14:32

After 14 defeats, the Withdrawal Bill exited the Lords. In much worse condition than anyone dared to predicted.

Now we have those who were viciously against Lords reform, all of a sudden shouting about how much we desperately need it. Well fancy that. Tradition isn't so attractive if you aren't getting your own way.

Daniel Hannan has suddenly admitted that Brexit is not 'going to plan' (there was one?) and Johnson is still his weekly resignation threat.

It now throws things back into Corbyn's court. The Tory Rebel Forces think that they have the numbers to stay in the Single Market, but are blocked by Corbyn's opposition to it.

The decision on the customs union has effectively been pushed back to the Autumn by May, but we have to make a decision about the Irish border by June or trade talks won't go ahead as planned.

The trouble is that the Cabinet can not decide on which option they want to take, but neither is particularly viable anyway. Max Fac means a border in the Irish Sea which the DUP won't like and the Customs Partnership isn't acceptable to the Empire Tories. In any case it seems unlikely that either option could get through the Commons in their current form due to the growing number of Tory Rebel Forces.

May also has a problem with the grass roots. It is more or less impossible for her to deliver the Brexit they desire whatever she tries.

The growing backlash about the hostile environment also undermines the point of Brexit in reducing immigration. Its is growing apparent, WHY we need immigration and that the people who are being targeted for deportation are simply the easiest to pick off and not the ones that people see as 'a problem'. Indeed you have to wonder about how many immigrants ARE a problem. The idea to control immigration after Brexit was not through the border but through the hostile environment, yet this seems now to be something that will be impossible to continue with politically.

Leave.EU have now been referred to the police for breaking Electoral Law. It also turns out that they found numerous ways to beat the spending limit legally. The female data controller has also been found to have data protection law. Meanwhile Banks and Wigmore as well as Nix (CA and SCL), Cummings (Vote Leave) and Silvester (AIQ) have all been summoned to appear because the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. Zuckerberg also does not appear to have completed his answers to the committee as Facebook have had their homework deadline extended to Monday (and has been asked to appear by the 24th May whilst he is in Europe).

Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee Dates
Electoral Commission - Tuesday 15th May
Silvester - Wednesday 16th May
Cummings / Nix - Summoned to appear Tuesday 22nd May
Banks / Wigmore - Tuesday 16th June

Also in parliament in next weeks is and interesting looking ten minute rule bill named 'Representation of the People (Gibraltar)' - Tuesday 15th May

Anyway, we are all set for the predictable 'who blinks first' brinkmanship with the UK aware that if the EU don't blink we go over the cliff and parliament aware that if May delays long enough she bypasses parliamentary democracy or put it in a position with a gun to its head.

Who is looking forward to this year's 'row of the summer'?
It could be a long, hot summer.

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision and the UK to get some points and not come last. Its not going to happen is it?

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RedToothBrush · 15/05/2018 15:42

It's one letter away from being a potential disaster

I know. What WERE they thinking. Or is that the point. And if that's the point, should we concerned about these people having significant influence in government?!

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okdok · 15/05/2018 15:44

They think he's still popular.

RedToothBrush · 15/05/2018 15:48

Kevin Schofield @ polhomeeditor
BREAKING: MPs vote by 301-289 in favour of a Government amendment killing off Leveson 2.

And off it goes back to the Lords.

Are we going to get some parliamentary ping pong?

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DGRossetti · 15/05/2018 16:00

Are we going to get some parliamentary ping pong?

Maybe it's some sort of unpublicised reality TV show. "British Democracy - 24 hours" or the like.

The past few years - like a falling tide - have revealed how so many people managed to know so little (I would suggest in some cases "fuck all") about the country they live and grew up in.

The fact this ignorance is proudly paraded whilst claiming to "take back control" is an irony not lost on me. Presumably shoehorning me into the metropolitan liberal elite that so desperately need a good kicking.

Did anyone catch SCOTUS decision yesterday to strike out the 1992 gambling regulations pushed by Congress ? Interesting in itself as an demonstration of how the constitution binds congress, but more interesting when you hear that SCOTUS was lobbied to keep (not strike out) the legislation by the 4 organisations that represent the sports nationwide. As Deep Throat said "Follow the money ..."

DGRossetti · 15/05/2018 16:05

It's 'only' £35 to listen to some music and to stick pins in your eyes see Owen Jones talk in London.

Shades of the full "Hey Wow" sketch I posted upthread from NTNOCN Smile

Youth: "Where's the band ?"
Presenter: "First we're going to discuss the problems facing todays youth. You - what are the problems facing young people today ?"
Youth: "Er..."
(Shout from audience): The Tories
Presenter: "DON'T HELP HIM."

(from memory)

RedToothBrush · 15/05/2018 17:08

I love that Owen Jones, who wrote a book about the demonisation of the working classes, spent the last two days saying it's ok to use the word 'gammon'.

Why 'chav' is not ok and 'gammon' is ok, I'm struggling with tbh.

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Motheroffourdragons · 15/05/2018 17:14

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

RedToothBrush · 15/05/2018 17:25

I'm thinking chav is bad because young, gammon ok because old.

Anyway...

Guido Fawkes @ Guido Fawkes
63 Windrush citizens may have been wrongly deported says @sajidjavid

And more on the Scottish Parliament story.

Nick Eardley @ nickeardleybbc
Breaking: Scottish Parliament refuses to back Withdrawal Bill, 93 votes to 30.

The key word as mentioned in the above BBC article is the word 'consent'.

Kevin Schofield @ polhomeeditor
Constitutional crisis klaxon

David Mundell confirms the UK government WILL over-rule Holyrood and press on with the EU Withdrawal Bill, despite the Scottish Parliament refusing to give its consent to the legislation.

I smell a legal case...

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RedToothBrush · 15/05/2018 17:29

Or two...

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TheNumberfaker · 15/05/2018 17:34

A couple of quick questions for the constitutional experts. What would happen to the EU withdrawal bill if there were to be another GE in the next few months? Would they have to start all over again?
Also how much ping-ponging can there be between Houses if there isn't an interruption to the current session? I think there's some kind of convention/rule that the Commons takes precedence but I'm not sure if that's length of time/sessions or number of ping-pongs.

Motheroffourdragons · 15/05/2018 17:45

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 15/05/2018 18:02

Why 'chav' is not ok and 'gammon' is ok, I'm struggling with tbh.
Because those who are are termed chavs may share his viewpoint and those called gammon don't?
Yes, I'm that cynical.

prettybird · 15/05/2018 18:02

Indeed. Hmm

DGRossetti · 15/05/2018 18:19

but if it is that easy to override a decision by a devolved government then what is the point of a devolved government?

It was never really devolved in the first place, obviously.

It's hard to think of a more in-your-face example of nationalists being right.

One idly wonders what countries outside the UK will make of Westminster pissing all over previous agreements on devolution.

RedToothBrush · 15/05/2018 18:43

I THINK this is the case:

What would happen to the EU withdrawal bill if there were to be another GE in the next few months?

It would be a new parliamentary session. A parliamentary session is usually a year unless otherwise stated (the current one is an unusual 2 years). There are normally 5 sessions in a parliament. A GE ends the current session as it ends the current parliament.

Would they have to start all over again?

No it would continue from where it currently is, if the next government, decided to pursue the bill as part of their manifesto. Of course they could just kill it off by not deciding to follow the bill up. They could introduce a new bill on the same subject instead if they so wished too.

Also how much ping-ponging can there be between Houses if there isn't an interruption to the current session?

As much as Andrea Leadsom timetables it in the Commons / Lords. But it can not be passed as law until it's signed off by both houses. The Commons has the right to overrule the Lords - but not in the same parliamentary session. So a bill gets stuck in limbo until the next parliamentary session if there is no progress and agreement between the two houses.

The EU Withdrawal Bill is unique in its time limitation problem. This isn't true of the Leverson 2 proposals in quite the same way.

I think there's some kind of convention/rule that the Commons takes precedence but I'm not sure if that's length of time/sessions or number of ping-pongs.

Its the next parliamentary session.

In theory May could get rid of her EU Withdrawal Bill problem (the Lords amendments) IF we get into a situation of ping pong over the bill BUT the time limitation, which is the thing preventing the government from over ruling the Lords in the first place, makes it difficult to do that.

The window for a GE is very narrow. It's possible, but then that would be a gamble that she could win a GE... I don't think anyone could call it.

Realistically it a) would be a huge gamble because of the GE b) wouldn't necessarily solve the problems if the problem is too many rebel MPs.

Remember, it does not matter who is PM and which party is in government the EU Withdrawal Bill has to pass because of the Brexit cliff edge caused by article 50. Labour realistically couldn't replace the bill with an alternative easy because of the time limitation. Though they would have a theoretical advantage in the Lord's if they worked with the LDs and the Crossbenchers to ensure their concerns are listened to. Even this though would be tight. (Too tight).

So I'd say we are stuck with the EU Withdrawal Bill unless we revoke A50 / have it extended.

Remember if we have another GE that also means we lose more parliamentary time for everything. The Lords are already saying we don't have enough time to scrutinise essential bills that really need to also be passed before the cliff edge. Plus it delays all other parliamentary bills and we just end up with a huge backlog and no progress generally.

What is theoretically possible and what is practical in terms of the evitability of 'Brexit by Timetable' as David Allen Green calls it, are different things.

It will go to the wire whatever happens. That I'm certain of.

The Scottish parliament saying they don't consent is an interesting intervention as they are gambling on the constitutional thing that Westminster can not force anything on Scotland without consent. It looks like they are going for a legal ruling along those lines to stop the EU Withdrawal Bill.

If successful it leaves us with two options: cliff edge or revokation/extension.

So you can see why the Scottish Parliament would want to throw that in. It's win win for them if they are committed to independent.

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Somerville · 15/05/2018 18:52

Good article on NI by Sam Coates www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/centre-stage-why-the-future-of-northern-ireland-is-crucial-to-brexit-3pggnb7fj
Apparently May is increasingly concerned about the future of the Union. No shit, Sherlock

RedToothBrush · 15/05/2018 19:02

From what he's tweeted it sounds like it's not just May getting nervous about NI, its lots of Tories.

Penny dropping ?

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Somerville · 15/05/2018 19:22

Hopefully, RTB.

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 15/05/2018 19:25

Do you think someone somewhere has finally put their head above the parapet and informed the government that NI is indeed part of the UK? It was probably Arlene in fairness.

Arborea · 15/05/2018 19:29

I got a reply from my MP, and astonishingly it actually seems to have been composed by a human:

It is the fixed view of the Shadow Cabinet that Labour is pushing for the post-Brexit United Kingdom to be in a customs union with the same benefits as today. It is fundamental to Northern Ireland that there is no hard border, and moreover no barrier to trade with our biggest partner – the European Union – for businesses in [our constituency].

As a Labour MP, I will be supporting measures to keep the UK within a customs union with the EU

It's short, but at least it's not just buzzword bingo.

woman11017 · 15/05/2018 19:38

And nurses' union:
^Royal College Of Nursing Backs Call For Second Referendum
It's the first union to take the plunge^.
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/royal-college-of-nursing-backs-call-for-second-referendum_uk_5afb04dde4b09a94524c72b6

woman11017 · 15/05/2018 19:43

And the RCN is a predominantly female union, of course. Some how or another, us women have to fix this. Good interview with NI Peace Woman, Monica McWilliams, recently on BBC.
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09yrvz3

woman11017 · 15/05/2018 19:46

Last one! Coaches available departures across the country for June 23rd.
www.peoples-vote.uk/coaches

enochroot · 15/05/2018 20:03

Anyone going from Derbyshire?

woman11017 · 15/05/2018 20:07

There's a bus going from Leeds, but the list will be updated with more buses. enochroot