Westministenders: Stalling for Time

[RedToothBrush]

After 14 defeats, the Withdrawal Bill exited the Lords. In much worse condition than anyone dared to predicted.

Now we have those who were viciously against Lords reform, all of a sudden shouting about how much we desperately need it. Well fancy that. Tradition isn't so attractive if you aren't getting your own way.

Daniel Hannan has suddenly admitted that Brexit is not 'going to plan' (there was one?) and Johnson is still his weekly resignation threat.

It now throws things back into Corbyn's court. The Tory Rebel Forces think that they have the numbers to stay in the Single Market, but are blocked by Corbyn's opposition to it.

The decision on the customs union has effectively been pushed back to the Autumn by May, but we have to make a decision about the Irish border by June or trade talks won't go ahead as planned.

The trouble is that the Cabinet can not decide on which option they want to take, but neither is particularly viable anyway. Max Fac means a border in the Irish Sea which the DUP won't like and the Customs Partnership isn't acceptable to the Empire Tories. In any case it seems unlikely that either option could get through the Commons in their current form due to the growing number of Tory Rebel Forces.

May also has a problem with the grass roots. It is more or less impossible for her to deliver the Brexit they desire whatever she tries.

The growing backlash about the hostile environment also undermines the point of Brexit in reducing immigration. Its is growing apparent, WHY we need immigration and that the people who are being targeted for deportation are simply the easiest to pick off and not the ones that people see as 'a problem'. Indeed you have to wonder about how many immigrants ARE a problem. The idea to control immigration after Brexit was not through the border but through the hostile environment, yet this seems now to be something that will be impossible to continue with politically.

Leave.EU have now been referred to the police for breaking Electoral Law. It also turns out that they found numerous ways to beat the spending limit legally. The female data controller has also been found to have data protection law. Meanwhile Banks and Wigmore as well as Nix (CA and SCL), Cummings (Vote Leave) and Silvester (AIQ) have all been summoned to appear because the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. Zuckerberg also does not appear to have completed his answers to the committee as Facebook have had their homework deadline extended to Monday (and has been asked to appear by the 24th May whilst he is in Europe).

Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee Dates
Electoral Commission - Tuesday 15th May
Silvester - Wednesday 16th May
Cummings / Nix - Summoned to appear Tuesday 22nd May
Banks / Wigmore - Tuesday 16th June

Also in parliament in next weeks is and interesting looking ten minute rule bill named 'Representation of the People (Gibraltar)' - Tuesday 15th May

Anyway, we are all set for the predictable 'who blinks first' brinkmanship with the UK aware that if the EU don't blink we go over the cliff and parliament aware that if May delays long enough she bypasses parliamentary democracy or put it in a position with a gun to its head.

Who is looking forward to this year's 'row of the summer'?
It could be a long, hot summer.

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision and the UK to get some points and not come last. Its not going to happen is it?

Negotiations going well with our great friends the Americans then...

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/16/theresa-may-warned-brexit-customs-plan-could-against-law-government/amp/?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
Theresa May warned her Brexit customs plan could be against the law as Government seeks urgent legal advice

Theresa May has been warned by David Davis that her preferred Brexit customs option could be illegal under international law with the Government now seeking an urgent legal opinion.

Mr Davis, the Brexit Secretary, reportedly set out in a letter to the Prime Minister his concern that the customs partnership plan could be open to legal challenge.

Amazing.

survey.

Sam McBride @ SJAMcbride
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar in the Dail yesterday dismissing the 'maximum facilitation' proposal as less useful than deodorant. And, in comments which will unsettle already sceptical unionists, he (presumably misspeaking) moves from opposing a hard border to opposing any Irish border.

Double Amazing.

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
More on Northern Ireland: is Theresa May last Aug in Irish News promising “no physical infrastructure” at the border
1. Is this still gvt policy
2. Does this include doing something that makes the EU require the Republic to put up a boarder
3. How flexible is “border”

Missed this from yesterday:

Harry Cole @ mrharrycole
Government source on Boris missing this afternoon's Brexit war cabinet: "I think his views on this have been widely shared already."

The Columnist @ Sime0nStylites
David Lidington this morning said, ‘On the island of Ireland’ rather than ‘border’.

!!!

I heard an interesting take on the 52/48 split recently ... with a remainer pointing out that on that scale, the public voted for the 2 softest possible brexit (as 51% would have been for the softest possible).

Struck me as in interesting - and quite valid - interpretation of "the will of the people" on a binary question.

It also has the advantage of mirroring what Leave would have claimed if Remain had won by 2% .... that "The will of the people" was for the 2nd least possible membership of the EU .

Developments in Italy regarding the coalition talks there:

Antonello Guerrera @ antoguerrera
“Working on a potential euro exit for #Italy. Lifting sanctions to Russia. Asking EU auth. to write off 250 billions debt”. It’s the explosive draft of the “contract for the changement government”, the M5S-LEGA agenda. Markets are agitated, bond yields already on the rise. THREAD

1. Where this explosive draft come from? It is was discovered and published by @HuffPostItalia last night. M5S leader Di Maio and LEGA leader Salvini labelled it as “old, out of date stuff”. But it is not so old. The leaked document is dated May 14th, which is 2 days ago.
#italy

2. Anyway, here is the full M5S-LEGA document leaked by @HuffPostItalia 👉🏻 Article in Italian
It’s a draft, M5S and LEGA will negotiate on it for a few days more but it highlights quite clearly which impact a populist M5S-LEGA government may have on #Italy and Europe.

3. But Let’s analyze this agenda M5S-LEGA draft. One main issue is euro, or better, opening the door to a euro exit for #Italy, as Salvini has invoked more than once and some M5S members fantasized about in the past. The leaked draft is pretty clear. 🇮🇹

4. In the leaked file, M5S and LEGA clearly stress the necessity of “introducing specific technical procedures in order to let euro countries quit the monetary union” or to keep themselves out of eurozone “through a permanent opt-out clause” if there is a popular will.
#italy

5. This point is so tricky and contradictory. M5S and LEGA clearly state in the draft that euro isn't irreversible. Moreover, they quote the "popular will", but as I said more than once to my followers, a referendum on euro is ILLEGAL in #Italy: the Constitution forbids it 🇮🇹

6. With regard to EU, Salvini and Di Maio also wrote in the leaked document that "EU treaties must be rediscussed" and they also mention the possibility for #Italy to reduce its contribute to the common EU budget.

7. However, there are more thorny issues: at one point, page 38, in the leaked M5S-LEGA document you can see the intention to ask ECB president Draghi to write off (or freeze) 250 billions of Italy debt (bonds bought by ECB quantitative easing), reducing the sovereign debt by 10%

8. Meanwhile, BREAKING. M5S founder Beppe Grillo in an interview with @Newsweek: "We are in favor of a consultative referendum on the euro. It might be a good idea to have two euros, one for northern Europe and one for southern Europe"
www.newsweek.com/giuseppe-beppe-grillo-comedian-who-nows-head-italys-five-star-movement-talks-925307?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true
Beppe Grillo, Five Star founder and comedian, on Putin's 'clear ideas', the 'dysfunctional' EU and Italy's 'cultural and mental misfits'

9. But let's go back to the M5S-LEGA leaked agenda. Another main point is #Russia: the document sets #Italy in NATO frame, but at the same point it defines Russia "a special ally, a commercial partner, not a menace" so "all sanctions against Russia should be immediately lifted"

10. Other interesting points of the leaked M5S-LEGA draft (I don't want to bore you):
- Strong fight to corruption
- A new potential law on conflict of interest (Berlusconi?)
- More courts, more jails
- Tax fraud amnesty but tougher laws on new tax evaders
#Italy

11. Just two more points and then I'll set you free:
- There is an ambiguous passage on the tax reform and the (low) flat tax, a main promise in Salvini's agenda, which means that the two parties are still at odds on it
- The same on immigration, so still much discussion on it

12. Markets are reacting badly to this M5S-LEGA leaked agenda and that may remind the gloomy 2011 crisis.
- Milan stock exchange soon fell 0.4%
- #Italy government bonds went also down, 10-year yields above 2%
- 10-year spread over Germany up to 137.35 points (129 yesterday)

13. We'll see what happens. One thing is sure: a M5S-LEGA government would be very radical and challenging to Italy and Europe institutions. #Italy may become the first populist big country in EU. If M5S and LEGA strike a government deal, much is going to change.
THREAD ENDS

I suspect we will be hearing A LOT more about this. Of varying quality and accuracy.

Do any of the Westminstender Italians have any reflections on this?

Another thread on the Italian story

Alberto Nardelli @ albertonardelli
1. A short story about why and how the draft Lega-M5S agreement (left), and the statement (right) issued by the two parties last night, are both consistent with Lega's long held position and strategy to leave the euro

2. Back in Jan. 2017 I got word that Lega was exploring mechanisms to leave the euro, including the applicability of Article 50. I was also told the party was having backchannel conversations with M5S. I reached out to a senior Lega official

They denied contacts with M5S, but explained how the party wanted to exit the euro (and the EU). This is what they said:

For an explanation of why Conservatives, and some leftists maybe like Corbyn but not sure whether he is like this, check out Accelerationism. This is a position that things can only get better after they have gotten worse: we need a paradigm shift beyond the current state of capitalism/welfare state and to get there, we need to destroy what is here now. Bannon of course being a prime example of this but JRM here could qualify I think and with him a good (bad) part of the brexiters.
wiki: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerationism

Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
Exclusive: Sky News obtains Government internal “Risk Register” on post-Brexit nuclear safeguards project, required in place by March 2019. All 5 High Level risks, IT, funding, training, staff, ownership nuclear material on red warning on red-amber-green scale: #brexitforensics

Key IT project the Safeguards Information Management Reporting System to track nuclear material post Brexit and post Euratom, required to be in place by end of this year “irretrievably lost” deadline to start in last financial year, red high level risk of it being “ineffective”

To mitigate problems recruiting Nuclear Safeguards inspectors by next March, the Risk Register says that the Office for Nuclear Regulation said it would “redefine person spec” of an inspector and “Grow our own - graduates etc”.. ONR did not answer if that meant lowering standards

Response from Office for Nuclear Regulation and Business Department is that progress is being made ”confident” they’ll be ready on Day 1 Brexit

Cummings and Gove subscribe to the theory RhuBarbarella.

Antonello Guerrera @ antoguerrera
BREAKING. Populist LEGA-M5S government closes in. LEGA leader Salvini: "Home Affairs ministry to LEGA to deal with deportations and repatriations [of migrants]. I'm ready to renounce to premiership". M5S members: "Coalition deal likely today, we're almost ready"
#Italy

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/15/trump-threatens-use-us-trade-talks-force-nhs-pay-drugs/

Donald Trump is ready to use trade talks to force the National Health Service to pay more for its drugs as part of his scheme to "put American patients first”.

Mr Trump has claimed that the high costs faced by US patients are a direct result of other countries’ health services “freeloading” at America’s expense.

(contd)

dg I shudder to think there a 49th best brexit. Though that would equally be worst possibly and as they're now the people, precisely what we seem to be aiming for. Eek.

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
NI secretary Karen Bradley in front of EU Scrutiny Select Committee repeats she wants “no new physical infrastructure” at the border

Bradley makes clear NI has “transformed” in last 20 years but there are “a small number” of people there who still resort to violence.

Karen Bradley is asked ‘so where would the border be’ “That is what we’re working towards....” she says, optimistically, and refuses to express personal preference

Karen Bradley asked what happens if UK strikes a trade deal with the US that allows chlorinated chicken (which wd be banned in EU inc Ireland) “They are matters for further down the line... I’m not going to speculate today ... a long way down the line”

A key point hard to fudge

Kate Hoey asks Karen Bradley to acknowledge there is “a border” for tax, currency etc already managed sensibly. She says she does

Kate Hoey says there are already cameras near the border. Bradley says she wants to “maintain the situation”

Bradley insists “no new checks, no new physical infrastructure, no new ANPR camera”. Asked by Hoey if - on cameras - that’s a silly thing to say, Bradley says no.

Bradley: “We don’t want to see change at the border” What about GPS? Bradley says she considers all options

Kate Hoey is now arguing that the Irish are putting in lot of lobbying effort “wining and dining” figures in Brussels, but there is no exec representing Northern Ireland in Brussels defending their views

Bradley says she hasn’t yet been to Brussels but points out she doesn’t have executive powers in NI

Hoey asks about whether Bradley concerned at “negativity of the Irish gvt”

Bradley “we have to respect the different audiences that politicians speak to”; says Irish gvt wants to find a solution

Bill Cash pushing what “no new physical infrastructure” means. Bradley says on technological tracking
1. There are lots of border crossings inc fields and lanes and “we will not change anything”
2. Because of the security situation...

3. Says where or if new infrastructure would be needed but if there were it would have to be carefully policed

Hoey asks whether gvt being blackmailed by dissidents on infrastructure. Bradley says she’s keeping an open mind on options of what to do.

On both customs options Karen Bradley says both can work and there are concerns on both

Bradley says “max fac enables the UK to operate entirely independently of the EU”

Bradley confirms that one customs option minimises the challenges in NI: “There’s no doubt that New Customs Partnership makes border issues easier”

This is supposed to be the European Scrutiny Committee but with 20 mins left to go, nobody has asked the NI Secretary about the backstop negotiation.

Which, arguably, is the key area for discussion.

Experts, huh

Karen Bradley says she thinks there is a majority in NI who want to stay part of the UK

Bradley on the customs partnership: “Nothing would change for businesses whose goods are consumed in the UK”

Karen Bradley now talking about backstop. Says EU text not acceptable but we do need one

(What does it look like? What can we agree? But they’ve moved in again)

^Hoey: Can we rule out the backstop?
Bradley: We don’t want to use the backstop. “The backstop is not where anyone wants to be”^

Asked if she ever had any personal opinions, Bradley replies “I’m not here as a person”

The Karen Bradley session has now finished. I’d say it’s now safe to unmute - but those that have won’t see this message

Echoing the RTE and Telegraph articles posted earlier...

uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-brexit-customs-partnership-plan-could-be-illegal-2018-5

This news report that...
"The Brexit Secretary is said to have used a letter to the PM to raise doubts about whether a 'partnership' arrangement with the EU would break international trade law.

Amid growing speculation that the concept will be killed off, the Attorney General has been asked to provide an urgent legal opinion."

This doesn't quite hang together for me. Woolly David Davis isn't normally that fussed about legality of things. He caused all the furore over well we may renege on our agreements because "nothings agreed until everything's agreed". So why would he now be so concerned about the legalities now? Odd.

My bold below:

BBC News Parliamentary live blog
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-44108570

From 13:18
PMQ: The verdict
Mark D'Arcy - Parliamentary Correspondent

This was a marathon PMQs, finally juddering to a halt at 12.52 pm.

And Jeremy Corbyn continued hammering away at the government’s internal deadlock over the critical question of post Brexit customs arrangements.

It’s just an impression, really, but something about the Labour leader’s tone and body language suggests that he is edging, more and more, toward a very “soft-Brexit” policy.

Maybe this is the inexorable logic of opposition, pushing Labour towards the policy most likely to damage the government and split the Conservatives.

Some on his benches – arch-remainer Stephen Kinnock for one – want to waft him towards their favoured policy of keeping Britain inside the EEA, the European Economic Area.

Theresa May, as last week, stuck to her familiar formulae about the trade arrangements she seeks, without giving much indication of how the government’s open dissention will be resolved.

But perhaps she gave a hint that ministers recognise how much trouble they are in, in the Commons.

Challenged by Labour’s Karen Buck, to provide an early vote on the EEA option, she suggested that vote could come on a number of bills, and then name-checked one that has not yet been fed into Parliament, the promised Implementation and Withdrawal Bill, that will put the divorce deal into UK legislation.

What is interesting about that is that the EU Withdrawal Bill, due to clear the Lords today, would provide a much earlier opportunity for an EEA vote. And indeed lots of other awkward votes for the government.

Peers have already inserted an EEA requirement into that bill, and MPs will have to decide to accept or reject it.

There is a rumour that ministers are so concerned about a series of possible Commons defeats on this bill that they might shelve it indefinitely, and maybe put parts of it into that promised Withdrawal and Implementation Bill in the autumn… at least kicking the can down the road for some months.

Although other voices insist votes will take place in June.

But the fact that there are even rumours it underlines the government’s continuing problem that there does not appear to be a Commons majority for the PM’s version of Brexit.

So a combination of Jeremy Corbyn and his pro-EU backbenchers gave the PM an uncomfortable interlude.

For the SNP Ian Blackford opened another Brexit front, by highlighting the opposition to the government’s plans in the Scottish Parliament. But that was a predictable line of attack and Theresa May was prepared. Both side put their line on the record.

And the PM also got in a pre-emptive concession on the Grenfell Tower issue – announcing new government funding in advance of the Labour Opposition Day debate this afternoon.

A neat piece of choreography with backbencher Bob Blackman, aimed at taking some wind out of Labour’s sails this afternoon.

Boom.

Laura Kuennsberg @ bbclaurak
Stagecoach has confirmed East Coast mainline being brought back into public ownership - statement from Grayling later

From yesterday...

Ian Dunt @ iandunt
When the backstop proposal was first included in the December agreement, British journalists and politicians were SHOCKED, SHOCKED I TELL YOU.

Then no-one talked about it. February rolls around and it is translated into detailed legal text in the February draft protocol and again, people lose their shit.

HOW DARE THE EU INTERFERE IN OUR TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY, IS THIS SOFT BREXIT BY THE BACK DOOR, MY GOD MAN.

Then no-one talked about it again.

Now we've spent weeks - actual weeks of our actual lives - obsessing over the Cabinet formations in an endless fight over customs proposals which the EU has already rejected.

And at the end of it, God knows when, at the heat death of the universe presumably, they'll go back to the EU and the backstop will still be there and then they'll lose their shit again.

And then it'll be there in the final withdrawal treaty in autumn and the Commons will have to vote on it and once again they'll say: MY GOD HAVE YOU SEEN WHATS IN THIS?

Many things have gone wrong here, but prime among them is the hopelessly inward looking nature of our press and politicians, who've continued rabbiting on about fuck all while the decisions are made elsewhere.

Meanwhile elsewhere:

Donald Tusk @ eucopresident
Looking at latest decisions of @realDonaldTrump someone could even think: with friends like that who needs enemies. But frankly, EU should be grateful. Thanks to him we got rid of all illusions. We realise that if you need a helping hand, you will find one at the end of your arm.

This doesn't quite hang together for me. Woolly David Davis isn't normally that fussed about legality of things. He caused all the furore over well we may renege on our agreements because "nothings agreed until everything's agreed". So why would he now be so concerned about the legalities now? Odd

Whilst it's not clearly a given, if we take that Brexit just won't happen (for whatever reason) then we need to think about how the people with most shit on them will try and spin it.

So shifting the blame to some unspecified "international trade law" might be one way

It seems to me the whole tenor of any Brexit debate has shifted into a sullen resignation that it won't be anything like anyone promised, and an increasingly frantic attempt to avoid situations where the phrase "we told you so" is the only truthful answer.

Has anyone mentioned all the legislation that isn't being passed thanks to Brexit ? Like the legislation to prevent partners accused of domestic violence from being able to cross-examine their victims in court ? Totally blown out of the water for at least 5 years. Or legislation to amend student loans. Ditto.

We're all victims of Brexit already.

My (reasonable, female, Tory Remainer) MP was on World at One alongside Adonis, talking about the EC main line decision. They were singularly in agreement. I’ve never actually heard her on a news programme before (well I don’t monitor the airwaves 24/7, but she really isn’t high profile despite being pretty competent). I wonder if we will see and hear more and more moderates on all sides taking up positions together in the near future?