Westministenders: Stalling for Time

[RedToothBrush]

After 14 defeats, the Withdrawal Bill exited the Lords. In much worse condition than anyone dared to predicted.

Now we have those who were viciously against Lords reform, all of a sudden shouting about how much we desperately need it. Well fancy that. Tradition isn't so attractive if you aren't getting your own way.

Daniel Hannan has suddenly admitted that Brexit is not 'going to plan' (there was one?) and Johnson is still his weekly resignation threat.

It now throws things back into Corbyn's court. The Tory Rebel Forces think that they have the numbers to stay in the Single Market, but are blocked by Corbyn's opposition to it.

The decision on the customs union has effectively been pushed back to the Autumn by May, but we have to make a decision about the Irish border by June or trade talks won't go ahead as planned.

The trouble is that the Cabinet can not decide on which option they want to take, but neither is particularly viable anyway. Max Fac means a border in the Irish Sea which the DUP won't like and the Customs Partnership isn't acceptable to the Empire Tories. In any case it seems unlikely that either option could get through the Commons in their current form due to the growing number of Tory Rebel Forces.

May also has a problem with the grass roots. It is more or less impossible for her to deliver the Brexit they desire whatever she tries.

The growing backlash about the hostile environment also undermines the point of Brexit in reducing immigration. Its is growing apparent, WHY we need immigration and that the people who are being targeted for deportation are simply the easiest to pick off and not the ones that people see as 'a problem'. Indeed you have to wonder about how many immigrants ARE a problem. The idea to control immigration after Brexit was not through the border but through the hostile environment, yet this seems now to be something that will be impossible to continue with politically.

Leave.EU have now been referred to the police for breaking Electoral Law. It also turns out that they found numerous ways to beat the spending limit legally. The female data controller has also been found to have data protection law. Meanwhile Banks and Wigmore as well as Nix (CA and SCL), Cummings (Vote Leave) and Silvester (AIQ) have all been summoned to appear because the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. Zuckerberg also does not appear to have completed his answers to the committee as Facebook have had their homework deadline extended to Monday (and has been asked to appear by the 24th May whilst he is in Europe).

Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee Dates
Electoral Commission - Tuesday 15th May
Silvester - Wednesday 16th May
Cummings / Nix - Summoned to appear Tuesday 22nd May
Banks / Wigmore - Tuesday 16th June

Also in parliament in next weeks is and interesting looking ten minute rule bill named 'Representation of the People (Gibraltar)' - Tuesday 15th May

Anyway, we are all set for the predictable 'who blinks first' brinkmanship with the UK aware that if the EU don't blink we go over the cliff and parliament aware that if May delays long enough she bypasses parliamentary democracy or put it in a position with a gun to its head.

Who is looking forward to this year's 'row of the summer'?
It could be a long, hot summer.

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision and the UK to get some points and not come last. Its not going to happen is it?

m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/norway-style-brexit-now-dead-after-jeremy-corbyn-signals-to-mps-he-wont-back-european-economic-area-model_uk_5af9dd09e4b09a94524b1630/?yz=&__twitter_impression=true
Norway-Style Brexit Now 'Dead' After Jeremy Corbyn Signals To MPs He Won't Back European Economic Area Model
He told MPs he didn't want UK to be a 'rule taker'

Ah, thank you math. Looked her dad up and then got distracted by this story of another DUP MP. Oops.

'Affair claims leave DUP MP's children 'gutted' - Simpson's alleged lover refuses to talk'

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sunday-life/affair-claims-leave-dup-mps-children-gutted-simpsons-alleged-lover-refuses-to-talk-36903832.html

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/14/may-tries-to-charm-mps-to-avert-tory-dissent-over-post-brexit-customs-plan?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&__twitter_impression=true
May tries to charm MPs in bid to avoid party split over customs plan
Ministers on both sides of debate make it clear that they are unlikely to be swayed

In an attempt to overcome the problems that No 10 acknowledges exist with both options, she has divided the inner cabinet into two groups, with Brexit secretary David Davis and cabinet office minister David Lidington leading talks.

But ministers on both sides made it clear they are unlikely to change their minds, leading many in the Tory party to believe that a Brexit “implosion” is all but inevitable. Only defence secretary Gavin Williamson is thought to be persuadable.

So someone will stop threatening to resign and will actually do it???

I love the euphemism for 'Gavin Williamson will suck up to anyone if he thinks its to his personal advantage'.

And

But a Brexiter source told the Guardian: “They’re neutral to the point of being incoherent. Yes, they’re presenting the facts such as they know them, but they’re not presenting any solutions. We’re all wondering why now, and to what ends?”

Code for 'its incoherent because I'm too arrogant to understand this facts nonsense'

And

Brexiters were frustrated that the customs partnership, described by Boris Johnson as “crazy”, was still on the table. One said: “Isn’t it time for her to give it a Dignitas death rather than this horror show that is just going on and on.”

'Why won't she just do what we say?'

And

Remain MPs were also growing impatient, with one suggesting it was time for May to “face down the Brexiters” and press on with the customs partnership model, which was more likely to get through parliament.

Code for 'why are we bothering with the max fac option at all as we're gonna rebel against it anyway.'

Another added: “We’ve got to the point where we just want her to make a decision. We don’t care what she calls it, just get it done.”

Code for 'Kill me now! I'll vote for anything May wants me to, as long as I'm not subjected to another torture session with Gavin Barwell'.

Newsnight tonight (and reports all week, it seems) from Derry, on the 'border' issue. The Brexiters all claimed no border infrastructure was necessary, as ever.
Evan Davis said something like 'the talk from Downing street has changed from no-physical-infrastructure to no-hard-infrastructure' and he pressed the question a lot of 'what harm would a few cameras do?'

I'm shaking with anger that this seems to be the emerging plan by the British government. Literally shaking.

I'm shaking with anger that this seems to be the emerging plan by the British government. Literally shaking.

I sincerely hope that it doesn't reignite the Troubles. I do hope it helps to destroy the Tory party - certainly the Tory party as it's become today. But are we surprised, yesterday from May we heard about a border 'as frictionless as possible' which I pointed out wasn't the same as 'frictioneless'.

It will reignite the Troubles. All this rhetoric of 'a small number of dissident republicans' is bollocks, in the short term there would be widespread civil disobedience to tear down cameras/ignore paperwork booking border crossings/open farmland gates to take across whatever the fuck anyone wants. And if the response is anything other than overlooking all that, then it will then get violent.
And in the medium term it will get even worse; the added burden for business and fears about the violence will affect the NI economy, and when young men lose their jobs violence always increases. Then the anger about the border will mean views will grow even more polarised, and Stormont will never reconvene. Leading to more home-rule (which is mostly being politely overlooked all round at the moment, to give the government time to deal with Brexit), this time with a very angry 50%+ population who feel betrayed by the undermining of the GFA. And then the other attacks on the GFA will necessarily occur - such as dismantlement of north/south and east/west cooperation in multiple areas. Finally the fragile 'British, Irish or both' identity truce will be shown to be worth nothing now the GFA is riddled with holes, and Catholics will begin to be discriminated against once more (just like was attempted by the border staff with British passports forore the other week).
And then BOOM.

We'd get a united ireland out of it eventually. But in the meantime, how much more fear and trauma and injuries? How many more lives lost?

Maybe, in my anger and frustration, I'm being too strong. But I can't think of a way that cameras on the border could play out that doesn't undermine the GFA. (I'm open to suggestions?)
I was bowled over by the depth of feeling when I visited home last week; and not just from republicans, I have to say. Lots of young people -Catholic/Protestant/from mixed families/from immigrant families -
are just as angry about Brexit as English and Scottish and Welsh young people are. Lots of talk about a united ireland from all communities, amongst the teenagers and students, which was a massive surprise to me.

re another DUP affair
"Mr Simpson has been a cheerleader for Christian values "

Usually a sign they are "at it"
Politicians in both the UK & US keep demonstrating this.

Brexiters keep claiming that any border will be the fault of the EU for putting one up.

The Single Market requires an external goods border, by definition
BUT
the UK may well not put up a proper border, due to incompetence and / or wanting to make the EU look the bad guys.

So we might end up with Republicans / Nationalists tearing down an EU-created border infrastructure,
much to the delight & public gloating of Brexiters & the DUP.

What might Republicans & Nationalists do additionally, to express anger at the Uk govt & the DUP, who would be really responsible for the mess ?

"We WANT TO CONTROL OUR BORDERS!"

Except when they don't. Pah.

I agree with your conclusions Somerville.

There will also be effects south of the newly resurrected border. The impact will be felt immediately in border counties whose life will once again feature smuggling and arms caches on isolated farms and a return to the days of banditry and protection rackets, groups of men who are untouchable and never held to account for domestic violence or other non-terror related crimes, partly because victims are silenced by pressure from the paramilitaries, and partly because some of them will be grasses too important to lose. Old scores will be settled. People will separate into mutual protection societies. The Gardai will come under intense pressure to take sides.

I can see Fianna Fail going through more of the internecine wars of the Charlie Haughey/Jack Lynch-George Colley era.. TDs and candidates in border counties will have to address border related issues and the rekindling of Republican organisations, and SF pressure at the polls will increase. Further south and west FF will feel pressure too, especially in some Dublin constituencies, but also in constituencies with a large income from agriculture, especially live beef exports. FF will need to distinguish itself from FG in terms of Republican sentiment or it will lose votes to SF. It will have to remain committed to representing business and agricultural interests that do not want turmoil in NI or Irish border counties. All parties will have to adopt a hard line on the GFA and keep on banging the constitutional way forward drum, but with the rug swept completely out from under their feet by Westminster this will not be easy.

It looks very much as if the WM government are preparing to throw the GFA under the bus. Worse, it looks as if they would actually engage in provocation of Republican elements in order to walk away and claim it was sabotaged by the Republicans - because who but a group of wild eyed, dyed in the wool terrorists who were never happy with the GFA in the first place (because it wasn't a united Ireland) would ever have any objection to an almost frictionless border marked by a few cameras on poles...?

SO down the toilet goes power sharing, the promise of a future referendum on reunification, the freedom to hold an Irish identity and the guarantee that it was equal to the NI British identity, the intergovernmental discussions, and the sense of security that went with all that in nationalist areas. As Somerville points out, the minority is back where it started in 1968 - a Unionist party that has never been able to resist putting the boot in when it comes to the nationalist community has the ear of Westminster.

Perhaps the election of the Unionist farmer to Seanad Eireann is a portent of NI finally coming to its senses, and Unionists whose livelihood depends on completely frictionless trade with the rest of the EU (some of whom must have voted Remain) giving the one fingered salute to the lunatic fringe (the DUP).

Math and Somerville

Despite being 1/4 Irish I bow to your superior knowledge on these matters but aren't you forgetting about the EU? Westminster may be prepared to throw NI under a bus but the EU has to agree to whatever is proposed.From the December agreement....

"
42. Both Parties affirm that the achievements, benefits and commitments of the peace process will remain of paramount importance to peace, stability and reconciliation. They agree that the Good Friday or Belfast Agreement reached on 10 April 1998 by the United Kingdom Government, the Irish Government and the other participants in the multi-party negotiations (the '1998 Agreement') must be protected in all its parts, and that this extends to the practical application of the 1998 Agreement on the island of Ireland and to the totality of the relationships set out in the Agreement."

43. The United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union presents a significant and unique challenge in relation to the island of Ireland. The United Kingdom recalls its commitment to protecting the operation of the 1998 Agreement, including its subsequent implementation agreements and arrangements, and to the effective operation of each of the institutions and bodies established under them. The United Kingdom also recalls its commitment to the avoidance of a hard border, including any physical infrastructure or related checks and controls.

I know everyone knows this but here's a reminder...

49. The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom's intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all- island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.

Can I ask , the Lords have voted on inquiry to continue or be re-established into media conduct , would that just cover print media or does it include all other forms, including social media ?

All of that will be done away with if a cliff edge scenario develops. The UK will unilaterally scupper the GFA if it gets in the way of the aims of the ERG. In this eventuality, the sanctions of the EU won't matter because burning of boats with as much offence as possible caused is the name of their game, and it will actually play right into the hands of the arch Brexiteers with their mantra "They hate us for no reason" and the associated "This was the other guy's fault".

The PM seems completely committed to running at full tilt against a brick wall, unable to juggle more than two facts at any given time. The GFA is as much at risk from plain old stupidity and stubbornness on her part as it is from the libertarian yahoos in the Rees-Mogg camp.

Labour has never had any sort of interest in NI, owes nothing to Unionists or Nationalists and they owe Labour nothing either, but under Corbyn Labour has a vested interest in a hard Brexit, and would walk away from the GFA with fingers in ears humming the Internationale very loudly.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/14/gibraltar-brexit-talks-deadlocked-spanish-airport-demands/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Gibraltar Brexit talks deadlocked over Spanish airport demands

If "the troubles" do start again, it will be in a 21st century manner. Leaving the 20th century British floundering. Also if the troubles do start again, the UK can kiss goodbye to any foreign investment.

And possibly unlike the 1970s, when the collective English actively went out of the way to remain ignorant of the causes of the troubles, there would be a good number of English who do understand the causes - and the UKs complicity in them.

That would be my personal view ...

Thomson Reuters is moving some of it's business to Dublin because of Brexit.

And so it continues...

So does Corbyn want a breakdown in society so that he can bring about some kind of socialist revolution? The hard right (see Banner, who has met with both Boris and Mogg) and the hard left seem to actively want a wrecked country, which they can then re-model.

So does Corbyn want a breakdown in society so that he can bring about some kind of socialist revolution?

He seems very much an old school unreconstructed class warrior, so it's not beyond ken ...

It certainly doesn't seem he's focussing on what's best for the man in the street.

So does Corbyn want a breakdown in society so that he can bring about some kind of socialist revolution?

I don't think he's got that much imagination. I think he's just a dyed-in-the-wool old socialist and is also allowing himself to be railroaded by Labour Leavers.

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/dot-commons-diary/95174/are-labour-struggling
Are Labour struggling to shift tickets for this summer's 'Jezfest' extravaganza?

Hey would YOU like to go to a festival with the nickname 'Jezfest'?

Think of ALL the things you could do over the summer would this be your choice?

It's 'only' £35 to listen to some music and to stick pins in your eyes see Owen Jones talk in London.

20,000 tickets and rumour is they have flogged 1,800.

Still I suppose it could be worse. It could be 'Tory Glastonbury'.

What the hell were they thinking? "Yes what I'd love to do is go to a political festival, rather than one of those fun proper festivals."

Hey would YOU like to go to a festival with the nickname 'Jezfest'?

It's one letter away from being a potential disaster

And if the big knobs at Labour HQ couldn't see that, it's a statement in itself.

Currently I have as much interest in anything Labour as I do in sheep rearing at high altitudes. No knowledge is ever wasted, but not all has any practical use ....