Westministenders: Stalling for Time

[RedToothBrush]

After 14 defeats, the Withdrawal Bill exited the Lords. In much worse condition than anyone dared to predicted.

Now we have those who were viciously against Lords reform, all of a sudden shouting about how much we desperately need it. Well fancy that. Tradition isn't so attractive if you aren't getting your own way.

Daniel Hannan has suddenly admitted that Brexit is not 'going to plan' (there was one?) and Johnson is still his weekly resignation threat.

It now throws things back into Corbyn's court. The Tory Rebel Forces think that they have the numbers to stay in the Single Market, but are blocked by Corbyn's opposition to it.

The decision on the customs union has effectively been pushed back to the Autumn by May, but we have to make a decision about the Irish border by June or trade talks won't go ahead as planned.

The trouble is that the Cabinet can not decide on which option they want to take, but neither is particularly viable anyway. Max Fac means a border in the Irish Sea which the DUP won't like and the Customs Partnership isn't acceptable to the Empire Tories. In any case it seems unlikely that either option could get through the Commons in their current form due to the growing number of Tory Rebel Forces.

May also has a problem with the grass roots. It is more or less impossible for her to deliver the Brexit they desire whatever she tries.

The growing backlash about the hostile environment also undermines the point of Brexit in reducing immigration. Its is growing apparent, WHY we need immigration and that the people who are being targeted for deportation are simply the easiest to pick off and not the ones that people see as 'a problem'. Indeed you have to wonder about how many immigrants ARE a problem. The idea to control immigration after Brexit was not through the border but through the hostile environment, yet this seems now to be something that will be impossible to continue with politically.

Leave.EU have now been referred to the police for breaking Electoral Law. It also turns out that they found numerous ways to beat the spending limit legally. The female data controller has also been found to have data protection law. Meanwhile Banks and Wigmore as well as Nix (CA and SCL), Cummings (Vote Leave) and Silvester (AIQ) have all been summoned to appear because the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. Zuckerberg also does not appear to have completed his answers to the committee as Facebook have had their homework deadline extended to Monday (and has been asked to appear by the 24th May whilst he is in Europe).

Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee Dates
Electoral Commission - Tuesday 15th May
Silvester - Wednesday 16th May
Cummings / Nix - Summoned to appear Tuesday 22nd May
Banks / Wigmore - Tuesday 16th June

Also in parliament in next weeks is and interesting looking ten minute rule bill named 'Representation of the People (Gibraltar)' - Tuesday 15th May

Anyway, we are all set for the predictable 'who blinks first' brinkmanship with the UK aware that if the EU don't blink we go over the cliff and parliament aware that if May delays long enough she bypasses parliamentary democracy or put it in a position with a gun to its head.

Who is looking forward to this year's 'row of the summer'?
It could be a long, hot summer.

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision and the UK to get some points and not come last. Its not going to happen is it?

I genuinely don't know what I would do if there was another GE anytime soon. I don't want to vote for a brexit backing labour party - but more than anything I want to avoid a tory landslide, and I fear people abandoning labour in droves would hand that to them (not because said people would vote tory instead, but because voting for a smaller party in so many constituencies is basically a wasted vote).

I think I will cry if (when?) they announce an election before March 2019.

G, a 22-year-old woman, is at risk of anti-LGBT persecution and violence if sent to Uganda by the Home Office on Tuesday 29th May

Being gay is a criminal offense in Uganda where there are regular reports of homophobic violence and oppression against the LGBT community and activists. G has made her claim to stay in the UK based on her sexuality. Despite presenting evidence of her sexuality and the clear risk to her life in Uganda, the Home Office has refused her case

‏ @emilycarrigan
🚨URGENT UPDATE 🚨 whilst she was organising her new claim the @ukhomeoffice have just given G a ticket for Tues 29th May on @qatarairways from @HeathrowAirport G will not be safe in Uganda. Please sign and share bit.ly/2J126y7 @jessicafostekew @DeborahFW @sindhuvfunny

www.change.org/p/sajid-javid-mp-stop-the-deportation-of-g-on-may-29th

Exactly.

Who do I vote for?

Not labour under corbyn.
Not the tories. Obv.

Lib dems?
Green?

Great anti brexit stance but their stance on self ID makes me so fucking angry...

Unfortunately I think the public (52%) still support Brexit. I watch Question Time sometimes, the audience there always seem very pro Brexit. I get very annoyed with the rubbish questions and statements from the audience. Example: one bloke saying they wanted a 'people first Brexit' followed by a big cheer from the audience. Wtf does that even mean? I very much doubt he had any idea himself.

Much as I want rid of this divided and useless government, I can't see that an another election or referendum would produce a decisively large vote one way or the other. So we'd just be left in limbo land again. Neither here nor there. Because the parties themselves are divided. So what's the answer? One or both parties splitting, reforming?
I wish I knew.

Good news for mother & other UK expats (like me) worried about right to remain:

Looks like any UK citizen resident in an E27 country before the end of the transition period - or if there is none, then imo by Brexit Day - would just need to complete a simple registration form, no tests of any sort

Residence in practice would mean having bank account, address, means of support, paying income tax (for pensioners / wage-earners) in that country

Sensibly, the E27 don't want the expense & work involved in anything more

• and I think we can assume it will be a lot simpler and more efficient than any UK system for E27 expats

If the EU Commission gets their proposal passed, then it will be a uniform document for UK residents across the E27

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/25/majority-of-eu27-favour-simple-approach-on-britons-residency

The European commission proposed a uniform set of identification documents
to be made available for UK nationals who make their home in the EU before the end of the transition period

The main concern now, which is only for UK pensioners:

is whether, after a WTO / no-deal Brexit, the UK govt would continue with the existing EEA-wide S1 system, which refunds E27 state healthcare systems for Uk citizens on UK state pension (likewise E27 countries refund for their pensioners)

Obviously, the EU can press for the UK to agree to that, but in the absence of a proper Withdrawal Treaty cannot enforce it.
So, again it is the UK govt that is the problem, even for its own expats

I have had private healthcare since my young days, but many UK pensioners / elderly expats don't and don't have the qualifying payment years in their EU country of residence to receive state treatment lifelong as pensioners

Private insurers won't take on new customers after a certain age and none will take on expensive existing conditions.

I can't see why the Tories are so afraid of Corbyn - the Brexiteers in the Tory ranks should make friends with him, because he's the most likely person to help them achieve Brexit. (More fool him.)

Mogg and May's paymasters look to be disappointed if Irish abortion ref exit polls prove right.

The exit polls have me in tears. First gay marriage and now repeal the eighth. At least my Irish side is on the potential winning side of referenda. I'm sure that's nothing to do with them being run well or things like facts.

The poll suggests that the margin of victory for the Yes side in the referendum will be 68 per cent to 32 per cent
IrishTimes
The whole thing has had mean in tears dobby fanfuckingtastic if this is kosher prediciton. It means a lot to us and Polish women too.

The Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI exit poll on Friday suggested that voters had backed the change by a margin of 68% to 32%

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/25/ireland-abortion-referendum-polling-day-await-result

Turnout could be one of the highest for a referendum, national broadcaster RTE reported,

I do hope it really was a landslide and a high turnout - exit polls may vary even 5%, but not enough to affect the result (barring funny biz)

Power to our Irish sisters for their victory < fist bump > 💪🏻

Many Irish men get it too, like this guy

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/25/ireland-abortion-referendum-polling-day-await-result

“At the end of the day, I don’t think we are voting on whether people can have abortions;
we are voting on whether poor women can have abortions, because rich people already travel to England,”

To all my Irish sisters, I raise you a tonight.

Now for NI.

Argh, just read that back and it looks awful.
My Irish sisters in ROI, and now for both my British/Irish/Dual/Whatever sisters in NI.

So this vote to allow (restricted) abortion rights in the RoI leaves NI very much out of step, where the only option is still to travel to other parts of the UK?

Potentially pre brexit this vote would also have meant travel to roi became an option too (possibly does under transition and maybe before depending on how quick it turns around in law) . A shitty one granted. But yes, if this goes the way exit polls are suggesting then it leaves NI totally at odds with roi and ruk.

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Excl: Tory grandees plot ‘dream plan’ for Michael Gove to serve as caretaker PM and step down for Ruth Davidson in 2021;
www.thesun.co.uk/news/6381904/tories-plot-for-gove-to-be-caretaker-prime-minister-before-scot-ruth-davidson-steps-in/

The plot comes as a consensus emerges among frustrated Tory MPs that Theresa May will be forced out in a year’s time as soon as Brexit is delivered next March.

As many as 30 ambitious Tory MPs have already begun canvassing for support to replace her as party boss.
But several senior figures have now settled on a master plan, dubbed the ‘Gove-Davidson succession’.

I really can not see Gove giving up being PM once he becomes it. It sounds like a plot to make Gove PM by making up a plan to con liberal thinking Tory MPs and to trick them into Dictator Gove.

The forward-thinking result in Ireland brings the DUP (and Tory deal with it) into sharp and critical focus.

Still wonderful news about ROI vote! Shows how organised ordinary liberal women and men can vote out even heavily funded extremist political lobbyists.

I think we predicted gove PM, but that's not how I'd spell 'dictator'.
His changes to all exams are 'bearing fruit' dodgy exam questions, poorly run exam boards, and students are used to mark GCSE and A level, as the shortage of teacher markers is so severe.

This could all be useful. Many people know what he's like through what he's done to our kids' schooling. He's a poundland richard the third; and he's the last political card they've got to play. Desperate times for the brexists.

Irish Times Exit Poll Age Group Breakdown:
18-24 YES 87% NO 13%
25-34 YES 83% NO 17%
35-49 YES 74% NO 26%
50-64 YES 63% NO 37%
65+ YES 40% NO 60%

The demographic breakdown looks familiar, and encouraging...... supports the politico article earlier, about demographics and EU vote here.

Michael Isikoff @ isikoff
FBI obtains Spanish wiretaps of Alexander Torshin, the Russian banker and Putin ally who met with Donald Trump Jr. at the NRA convention in 2016. "Trump's son should be concerned," says Spanish prosecutor.

www.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/trumps-son-concerned-wiretaps-show-trump-jr-met-putin-ally-231215529.html?__twitter_impression=true
'Trump's son should be concerned': FBI obtained wiretaps of Putin ally who met with Trump Jr.

SPAIN

As reported by Yahoo News and the Spanish newspaper El País last year, the Spanish National Police were preparing to arrest Torshin in August 2013, when he was expected to fly to the Spanish island of Mallorca in August for the birthday party of Romanov. The arrest plan, which involved the deployment of more than a dozen police officers at the airport and at the hotel where the party was supposed to take place, grew out of a lengthy investigation headed by Grinda into Russian organized crime and money laundering. As part of the probe, the Guardia Civil wiretapped Romanov’s phone and picked up 33 conversations with Torshin.

But Torshin never showed up for the party and he was never arrested. Grinda confirmed in an interview after his talk that some in the Guardia Civil suspected that Torshin had been tipped off to the arrest plan by Russian officials who had been asked to cooperate in the Spanish probe. But Grinda added that he was unable to prove that was why Torshin never showed up for the party.

Despite the suspicions about his ties to Russian money laundering, Torshin continued to travel frequently to the United States and even showed up as part of a Russian delegation in February 2017 to the National Prayer Breakfast, where he was at one point scheduled to meet with President Trump. (The meeting was canceled the night before, after National Security Council officials raised concerns about it.) More recently, Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden sent multiple letters to the NRA asking about its ties to Torshin and other Russian figures, questioning whether Russian money was funneled to the NRA to help pay for the more than $30 million the group spent on political ads and get out the vote efforts during the 2016 election.

Guardian Long Read

www.theguardian.com/news/2018/may/25/how-britain-let-russia-hide-its-dirty-money?CMP=twt_gu
How Britain let Russia hide its dirty money

The tories are kidding themselves if they think the teachers will ever accept Gove as a P.M - even a caretaker one. We don't forget - and everybody knows a teacher...
I can't believe they are unaware of just how toxic he is.

I am at the comparison to him to Richard third (even compared badly). Richard third was a good and competent king, an able administrator and an excellent General, who was betrayed last minute at the battle of Bosworth field and brutally murdered. He then had his reputation destroyed by the man who killed him and stole his throne.
Gove on the other hand - is a shit stain.

The Government, especially DD and the DfExEU (but also LF and his pointless department ), and the non Opposition would probably find these useful as they obviously don't understand the issues and implications that they need to address because they don't like pesky experts . It's simplistic enough for them

Brexit 'Tube-style' map designed by Essex academic
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-44257445