Westministenders: Stalling for Time

[RedToothBrush]

After 14 defeats, the Withdrawal Bill exited the Lords. In much worse condition than anyone dared to predicted.

Now we have those who were viciously against Lords reform, all of a sudden shouting about how much we desperately need it. Well fancy that. Tradition isn't so attractive if you aren't getting your own way.

Daniel Hannan has suddenly admitted that Brexit is not 'going to plan' (there was one?) and Johnson is still his weekly resignation threat.

It now throws things back into Corbyn's court. The Tory Rebel Forces think that they have the numbers to stay in the Single Market, but are blocked by Corbyn's opposition to it.

The decision on the customs union has effectively been pushed back to the Autumn by May, but we have to make a decision about the Irish border by June or trade talks won't go ahead as planned.

The trouble is that the Cabinet can not decide on which option they want to take, but neither is particularly viable anyway. Max Fac means a border in the Irish Sea which the DUP won't like and the Customs Partnership isn't acceptable to the Empire Tories. In any case it seems unlikely that either option could get through the Commons in their current form due to the growing number of Tory Rebel Forces.

May also has a problem with the grass roots. It is more or less impossible for her to deliver the Brexit they desire whatever she tries.

The growing backlash about the hostile environment also undermines the point of Brexit in reducing immigration. Its is growing apparent, WHY we need immigration and that the people who are being targeted for deportation are simply the easiest to pick off and not the ones that people see as 'a problem'. Indeed you have to wonder about how many immigrants ARE a problem. The idea to control immigration after Brexit was not through the border but through the hostile environment, yet this seems now to be something that will be impossible to continue with politically.

Leave.EU have now been referred to the police for breaking Electoral Law. It also turns out that they found numerous ways to beat the spending limit legally. The female data controller has also been found to have data protection law. Meanwhile Banks and Wigmore as well as Nix (CA and SCL), Cummings (Vote Leave) and Silvester (AIQ) have all been summoned to appear because the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. Zuckerberg also does not appear to have completed his answers to the committee as Facebook have had their homework deadline extended to Monday (and has been asked to appear by the 24th May whilst he is in Europe).

Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee Dates
Electoral Commission - Tuesday 15th May
Silvester - Wednesday 16th May
Cummings / Nix - Summoned to appear Tuesday 22nd May
Banks / Wigmore - Tuesday 16th June

Also in parliament in next weeks is and interesting looking ten minute rule bill named 'Representation of the People (Gibraltar)' - Tuesday 15th May

Anyway, we are all set for the predictable 'who blinks first' brinkmanship with the UK aware that if the EU don't blink we go over the cliff and parliament aware that if May delays long enough she bypasses parliamentary democracy or put it in a position with a gun to its head.

Who is looking forward to this year's 'row of the summer'?
It could be a long, hot summer.

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision and the UK to get some points and not come last. Its not going to happen is it?

The best newspaper correction ever?

This is heartwarming bit of footage.

@RoryHearne
Incredible public support for #together4Yes on #Fairview Bridge Dublin this evening...just listen to those horns honking...gardai honked, ambulances turned on their sirens. Public mood shifting further to support #repealthe8th
twitter.com/RoryHearne/status/999704689498312704

So many people have travelled back to Ireland for this vote. I saw a guy is offering free taxi rides from airport for 'yes' voters. No matter what the result is, this has been a stunning campaign by and for women. (like the great Polish women) Onwards.

MrsDGR and I have just enjoyed a giggle and some discussion following a pleasantly thoughtful reflection on the state of UK politics and Brexit.

(Be warned if you are a fan of Topics....)

(about 30 mins in ...)

Very interesting that the 10-acre Holloway site is to be sold for the paltry sum of £200m.

I suppose the assurance that 50% of the proposed 900 residences (according to the BBC, 5,000 according to the DM) to be developed will be 'affordable' is offered as a distraction to the fact that the developed has somehow got a massive bargain here, and stands to make a huge profit.

www.opendemocracy.net/5050/nandini-archer/reclaim-holloway-prison-london-womens-building
In the case of the Holloway prison site, the Ministry of Justice reportedly awarded the property agent Bilfinger GVA a contract to advise on the sale. It is understood that luxury apartments could be built here, worth billions of pounds—potentially furthering the gentrification of the area and the wider social cleansing of London.

A local estate agent told the Evening Standard that large sites in this area of the capital are rare and that “any new scheme here will be extremely popular with buyers.”

This is apart from concerns that the history of the site will be obliterated, and major concerns about the inmates being uprooted and sent to prisons far from their families, especially their children. The disturbance of family life that results from incarcerating mothers contributes massively to problems in the children including potential to become criminals, but also to devastating mental health problems.

UK 'chasing a fantasy' in Brexit talks, top EU official warns

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/24/uk-chasing-a-fantasy-in-brexit-talks-top-eu-official-warns

The senior EU official said: “I have to say on the basis of this week’s discussions, I am a bit concerned because
the pre-condition for fruitful discussions has to be that the UK accepts the consequences of its own choices.

“I am concerned that if the current debate continues, in three months’ time it will be the EU that will be made responsible for the Brexit decision.
We need the UK to accept the consequences of its own decisions.

“To paraphrase The Leopard by Tommaso di Lampedusa, I have the impression that the UK thinks everything has to change on the EU’s side so that everything can stay the same for the UK.”

and re NI:
^ “We were not keen to have a discussion on the backstop to the backstop,” the official said.^

And at the idea of using prisoners on day release as employees.

I thought one of the key issues for Brexiteers was that the availability of cheap labour by immigrants drove wages down for the native British?

What rights will these labourers enjoy? Can they join unions?

What wages will these employees be paid?

www.vox.com/2015/9/7/9262649/prison-labor-wages
US ethical problems with prison labour (taking lace within prisons).

In the days of Jim Crow, labourers (actually chattel slaves) were hired out by states to private interests - mining, agriculture, infrastructure contractors, etc.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convict_lease
There were appalling abuses of course, and many prisoners suffered injuries, from untreated illnesses, and many died. Supervision of the programmes was very lax, and companies using prisoner labour could bribe state officials, prison governors, etc to assure a labour supply and no questions asked. Many inmates were only in prison because of a system of peonage that was allowed to flourish in the American South.
(The entire system of leasing out prisoners was based on the same concepts that slavery was built on so no surprises there).

This is appalling on many counts.

The govt may ask the EU for an extended Customs Regulatory Alignment Period to last until 2023.

… ask the EU if we can have a longer CRAP ? 😂

In the spirit of Fox's Atlantic Bridge, copying everything the USA does …
chain gangs next ?

The govt may ask the EU for an extended Customs Regulatory Alignment Period to last until 2023.

Wasn't their plan to say no? After all, they didn't force Theresa May to invoke A50, so if she/the Tory party are not ready, it's not for them to bail the Party out.

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Nerves building among Brexiteers ahead of crunch votes on Withdrawal Bill next month;
1. Anger that latest No10 delay means Lewisham East by-election happens before votes finished, giving Labour an extra MP (yes, it could be that close);

2. Tory EU rebels holding rock solid. Confident their number of 11 from meaningful vote defeat has now risen to at least 15. Only 9 needed to defeat Govt.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/6372443/brexiteer-mps-blast-pm-for-delaying-brexit-vote-until-after-labour-by-election/
Brexiteer MPs blast PM for delaying Brexit vote until after Labour by-election
Leave MPs are livid with Theresa May for risking defeat on Brexit by not putting the EU Withdrawal Bill to a fresh vote until after the Lewisham East by-election

peregrina Yes indeed, the EU may say NO to the Uk taking a longer CRAP

The EU is for the most part logical and liberal. I think they would eventually agree to an extended period, but at a price.

In many aspects of life if you make a mistake you pay for it. We have made a huge mistake as a nation.

Whatever the eventual solution it will cost more on many fronts than the privileged position we enjoyed, but failed to appreciate, previously.

EU officials tear into UK’s ‘fantasy’ Brexit negotiating strategy as talks turn bitter

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-uk-eu-customs-plan-northern-ireland-theresa-may-a8368101.html

Brussels officials told to prepare for no progress to be made ahead of June summit
…
One senior EU official said the UK still lacked negotiating positions on a wide variety of issues and that in others it was “chasing the fantasy of denying the consequences of Brexit in a given policy area”
– while a UK government source accused Brussels of trying to “insult” the British negotiating team < difficult to do that ! >
…
EU negotiators complain that the British side “do not understand” that Britain will not be able to use the European arrest warrant after Brexit,
with Theresa May again having pledged to stay in the system just three months ago. 🤦🏻‍♀️

“There are member states that simply cannot extradite their own nationals to a non-member of the EU.
This is a constraint that unfortunately will apply once the UK is outside,” the senior official said.

“The European arrest warrant is simply not available.

I don’t think you can expect member states to change their constitutions in order to continue extraditing their nationals to the UK.
These are not bureaucratic issues.
We are talking here about the lives and liberty of citizens.
This is not something that can easily be done.”

The Uk will be a 3rd country, unless it chooses an EEA /EFTA Brexit
There are no "mates rates" for former members who bugger everyone around

I think the EU will only agree to a transition if their own businesses & organisations need the time
and even then, they may not unless the NI border backstop is agreed by EOM June, or September at the latest

Also, there may still be unexpected show-stoppers such as expats rights and the ECJ

Also very true from Ivan Richards' excellent speech

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/24/uk-stop-blather-face-reality-brexit-trade-ivan-rogers

In a thinly veiled attack on Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, and Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, Rogers said he despaired of
“people professing themselves free traders who have only a hazy understanding about multilateral, regional and bilateral free trade deals,
have never negotiated one – but know it’s straightforward, once one has left the EU.”

Nothing to do with Brexit < whistles nonchalantly >

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/25/uk-economy-posts-worst-quarterly-gdp-figures-for-five-years

UK economy posts worst quarterly GDP figures for five years
Growth slumps to 0.1%

< E27 growth increasing, so far immune to this strange phenomenon affecting the UK >

We are talking here about the lives and liberty of citizens.

That's your problem right there.

The UK cares for neither, so had a genuine problem understanding countries that do.

The Times thinks we have passed Peak Mogg re media presence and that his star is on the wane.
< crosses fingers & toes >

They even have a graph of his media mentions

Rees-Mogg's colleagues can barely contain their glee.
A Leave-supporting Tory minister says: "If it looks like he's shifted from principled to personal it could be very damaging for him."
A cabinet minister calls him a "one-tick pony".
A Remainer MP adds: "The parliamentary Tory has definitely passed peak Mogg. We're hoping the media follow our lead."
…
Let's not get ahead of ourselves
…
He also remains the bookies' favourite to be the next Tory leader.
But then so was Boris Johnson once. And David Davis.

If (fingers crossed) the Irish ref goes the right way, it would be one in the eye for Mogg's bosses too:
edition.cnn.com/2018/05/23/europe/ireland-abortion-referendum-american-campaigners-intl/index.html

Labour voters move from 2 to 1 for remain to 3 to 1 now.

Since the referendum around 1.2m electors have died, while 1.4m have joined the electorate. If we extrapolate from YouGov’s data from the youngest and oldest voters, and take account of variations in turnout by age, then I reckon that around 600,000 Leave voters, and 300,000 Remain voters have died; while 650,000 young Remainers and 150,000 Leave supporters have joined the voting population. Combine these figures, and these demographic factors have given us 350,000 extra Remain voters and 450,000 fewer Leave voters

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blogs/peter-kellner/new-polling-analysis-reveals-that-a-second-referendum-would-swing-to-remain

Labour voters move from 2 to 1 for remain to 3 to 1 now.

Plus a number - albeit small - of people who won't vote for a Brexit-backing Labour party (raises hand).

A second Referendum could swing the vote to Remain?Is Theresa May likely to allow this, to try to buy off the extreme right? Personally, I would like to see them launch a leadership challenge and see what they do with Brexit - assuming their candidate won.

Joins DG
(Raises hand)

Personally, I would like to see them launch a leadership challenge and see what they do with Brexit - assuming their candidate won.

Maybe the least likely of any outcome.

We're through the looking glass now. No-one, no-one want's to own Brexit. In fact that could ultimately be the driving force between finally ditching it.

It's a shame the UK doesn't work like the US. If it did, Theresa May could appoint her vice Prime Minster, then become "incapacitated" ... invoke the 25th, and effectively "appoint" the next Prime Minster. It would be a powerful weapon in keeping the Rees-Mogg contingent quiet.

I'm starting to wonder whether it's possible to have a General Election, anyway. the FTPA makes things more interesting. There's also the possibility that the Queen might "request" parliament tries to come up with some sort of majority before dissolving it .

After all, the whole point of the FTPA was to stop GEs being called for political advantage (and if nothing else, last years was a sound slap around the chops for both parties for trying it on ....)