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Brexit

Westministenders: Stalling for Time

963 replies

RedToothBrush · 12/05/2018 14:32

After 14 defeats, the Withdrawal Bill exited the Lords. In much worse condition than anyone dared to predicted.

Now we have those who were viciously against Lords reform, all of a sudden shouting about how much we desperately need it. Well fancy that. Tradition isn't so attractive if you aren't getting your own way.

Daniel Hannan has suddenly admitted that Brexit is not 'going to plan' (there was one?) and Johnson is still his weekly resignation threat.

It now throws things back into Corbyn's court. The Tory Rebel Forces think that they have the numbers to stay in the Single Market, but are blocked by Corbyn's opposition to it.

The decision on the customs union has effectively been pushed back to the Autumn by May, but we have to make a decision about the Irish border by June or trade talks won't go ahead as planned.

The trouble is that the Cabinet can not decide on which option they want to take, but neither is particularly viable anyway. Max Fac means a border in the Irish Sea which the DUP won't like and the Customs Partnership isn't acceptable to the Empire Tories. In any case it seems unlikely that either option could get through the Commons in their current form due to the growing number of Tory Rebel Forces.

May also has a problem with the grass roots. It is more or less impossible for her to deliver the Brexit they desire whatever she tries.

The growing backlash about the hostile environment also undermines the point of Brexit in reducing immigration. Its is growing apparent, WHY we need immigration and that the people who are being targeted for deportation are simply the easiest to pick off and not the ones that people see as 'a problem'. Indeed you have to wonder about how many immigrants ARE a problem. The idea to control immigration after Brexit was not through the border but through the hostile environment, yet this seems now to be something that will be impossible to continue with politically.

Leave.EU have now been referred to the police for breaking Electoral Law. It also turns out that they found numerous ways to beat the spending limit legally. The female data controller has also been found to have data protection law. Meanwhile Banks and Wigmore as well as Nix (CA and SCL), Cummings (Vote Leave) and Silvester (AIQ) have all been summoned to appear because the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. Zuckerberg also does not appear to have completed his answers to the committee as Facebook have had their homework deadline extended to Monday (and has been asked to appear by the 24th May whilst he is in Europe).

Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee Dates
Electoral Commission - Tuesday 15th May
Silvester - Wednesday 16th May
Cummings / Nix - Summoned to appear Tuesday 22nd May
Banks / Wigmore - Tuesday 16th June

Also in parliament in next weeks is and interesting looking ten minute rule bill named 'Representation of the People (Gibraltar)' - Tuesday 15th May

Anyway, we are all set for the predictable 'who blinks first' brinkmanship with the UK aware that if the EU don't blink we go over the cliff and parliament aware that if May delays long enough she bypasses parliamentary democracy or put it in a position with a gun to its head.

Who is looking forward to this year's 'row of the summer'?
It could be a long, hot summer.

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision and the UK to get some points and not come last. Its not going to happen is it?

OP posts:
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woman11017 · 23/05/2018 14:04

UK legally bound to pay £39bn Brexit 'divorce bill' before EU trade deal agreed, admits minister

Admission exposes Theresa May’s promise that 'nothing is agreed until everything is agreed' to be an empty one, government told

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-divorce-bill-uk-pay-eu-trade-deal-talks-david-davis-suella-braverman-a8364841.html

DGRossetti · 23/05/2018 14:25

The British do seem to be particularly apathetic politically.

which can be taken as a testament to the fact that generally, the UK political system "works" ...

  • risk of real foreign invasion ? Practically zero.
  • mass starvation ? Ain't gonna happen.
  • freedom to do/say/think what you like ? Good enough for most.
  • childrens futures ? No danger of famine, disease, natural disaster, or war.
  • quality of everyday life ? Bearable enough to keep from manning the barricades.

Bread and circuses.

Admittedly frustrating for those individuals who might want more - for themselves, their fellow man or the country. But generally they're a politically noisy minority.

There's also a massive inertia built into the system which acts to restore balance to where it was after any large impulse - sort of a social gyroscope. So even after executing our King, we were back to a Monarchy in no time. Even after the massive shift in peoples politics after 1945, we starting returning to the pre-war setup.

Even now, it feels like universal suffrage could be rolled back (starting, naturally with women).

okdok · 23/05/2018 14:32

Look at France - Macron starts trying to change things in a right wing kind of way, and very soon there's a general strike.

EmilyAlice · 23/05/2018 14:47

It isn't a general strike just some days each week for trains and planes. There are always strikes, frequently at this time of year and they end in time for everyone to go on holiday in July / August. We shrug and say "Bof". 😀

EmilyAlice · 23/05/2018 14:50

However I do think there is more political debate in general in France.

RedToothBrush · 23/05/2018 15:32

Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
“The crunch is coming” - pro Customs union Tory MP says Government knows “we’ll win” any Customs union vote [ie to stay in one], says ERG is now desperate... thinks EEA is now a possibility too based on previously quiet Tory MPs now fed up, but that depends on Labour...

Thinks Government will now push out the difficult Brexit votes until after EU Summit or even Autumn... says only reason that the Lords Amendments might return any earlier is if they want to make a point of losing some of them (!)

Aubrey’s thread does lend credibility the the notion of a dark mood among Tory Brexiters:

Aubrey Allegretti @ breeallegretti
Tory MP Daniel Kawczynski has just emerged from Brexiteers’ ERG meeting. Says he feels “very despondent” about progress of leaving the EU.

Kawczynski says he feels more strongly about democracy than being a Conservative and that some people in Westminster are doing “everything in their power to neuter Brexit”.

Kawczynski vows Tory Brexiteers will undo “ludicrous” and “very unconstitutional” changes to the Brexit Bill by the House of Lords.

In a significant warning to his colleagues, Kawczynski says the Conservatives “have to deal with some of the rebels in our own party”.

OP posts:
CardinalSin · 23/05/2018 16:50

Ian Dunt on how lying comes so easily to Ree-Smug.

DGRossetti · 23/05/2018 16:52

Kawczynski says he feels more strongly about democracy than being a Conservative

a tacit admission that the two things aren't related, then ?

EmilyAlice · 23/05/2018 16:56

Love Nicky Morgan's summary of HMRC evidence about max fac.

"I want to summarise where I think we are at the end of this session ... We are going to have a functioning but sub-optimal border on January 2021 where there will be a trade off between friction, revenue and security. It will take three to five years [to get new customs arrangements in place] depending on which of the two options [is chosen], but that can’t even start until a political decision has been made.
HMRC is recruiting about 5,000 people to make this happen, leaving aside people at the border.
The highly streamlined option is going to cost businesses £32.50, approximately, per customs declaration. That’s a cost of between £17bn and £20bn a year. The NCP (new customs partnership) will have set up costs of about £700m but could be ultimately net neutral [in terms of costs for business] if tariffs are reclaimed.
Just in this current financial year [HMRC is spending £260m implementing Brexit]. And there are 39 other HMRC projects which have either had to be stopped or significantly slowed down in order to get Brexit through.
I’m going to ask you an unfair question now which I strongly suspect you will not want to, or not be able to, answer. But wouldn’t it be a relief if parliament just voted for a customs union?"

CardinalSin · 23/05/2018 17:06

162% rise in British passport holders becoming German!

woman11017 · 23/05/2018 18:20

@faisalislam
NEW: Government to announce tomorrow it will bring back all the Brexit Bills next month to put to the Commons - facing down the (a?) customs union rebels... rebels though are confident they will win. ERG wanted it, now we get considerable fireworks in June. 1922 told today

So that would be decisions on 15 Lords amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill but also some MPs have been told its the long lost Customs and Trade Bills...
It’s getting very serious. & presumably this occurs against backdrop of Cabinet debates, the white paper, & ahead of EU Summit
As I said yesterday, some customs union rebels are baffled by this, suggest that Government may be using Commons as a means to settle Cabinet customs argument... an ERG member tell me if customs union amendments get voted thru PM might have to accept need to go to country...

That might be overdoing it a bit - but stakes are very very high... as a leading Tory rebel told me yesterday “the crunch is coming”

KennDodd · 23/05/2018 18:35

What a mess! I'm getting more and more pissed of with Leavers who stupidly voted for this situation and are now 'bored'. Top tip for voters in future, if Putin wants you to vote for it, it's not a good thing for the UK, he does not have your best interests at heart.

pointythings · 23/05/2018 18:37

Has anyone posted this yet? www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/23/ex-mayor-of-ipswich-inga-lockington-denied-citizenship-after-almost-40-years-in-uk. The hostile environment starts to bite EU citizens...

woman11017 · 23/05/2018 18:38

@SamCoatesTimes
Vote Leave's Dominic Cummings calls for Theresa May to be ousted next year after brexit

Shock not.

woman11017 · 23/05/2018 18:45

The hostile environment starts to bite EU citizens...
I'm going to call it apartheid. Same techiniques, same funders.

Corbyn's Socialist workers party supported that by default too, as they wouldn't support the African National Congress as the ANC 'were Stalinists', apparently. Hmm

BigChocFrenzy · 23/05/2018 18:46

SM & CU: Fundamentally different:

The Single Market assumes goods are in free circulation, unless proved otherwise.
i.e. no internal checks, frictionless trade across internal

Hence why the SM needs defined external borders around which all the checks & certifications are done.

A Customs Unions assumes goods are not in free circulation, unless proved otherwise

BigChocFrenzy · 23/05/2018 18:51

I think some people have noticed the UK - and its politicians - needs help understanding this … Smile

EU Commision: Slide on customs controls

Explaining clearly why CU is not enough for frictionless trade: that also requires the SM

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/customscontrolss_0.pdf

in the case of a customs union, the levying of customs
duties is removed and proof of free circulation is required instead of
rules of origin.

All other checks and controls are still necessary

Westministenders: Stalling for Time
Dobby1sAFreeElf · 23/05/2018 19:22

Just for giggles and to lighten the mood, here's a selection of @jimmfelton 's NOW WE GO LIVE TO BREXIT gif tweets

[https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2018/05/22/someone-found-gifs-absolutely-nail-brexit-21-funniest/]]

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 23/05/2018 19:22

www.thepoke.co.uk/2018/05/22/someone-found-gifs-absolutely-nail-brexit-21-funniest/

Or an actual link Blush

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 23/05/2018 19:52

via
@The3Million
Are you an Irish EU citizen in the UK and thinking that the Common Travel Area will protect your #citizensrights?

There seem to be some serious doubts:
"The Common Travel Area is a political agreement. It is non-binding and confers no legal rights"

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/05/after-windrush-will-rights-irish-brexit-britain-really-be-safe

woman11017 · 23/05/2018 20:10

It is non-binding and confers no legal rights

Didn't Arendt write about how they make the lies bigger to hide them?:

Brexit has made Britain more welcoming to immigrants - Michael Gove
www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/05/21/brexit-has-made-britain-more-welcoming-to-immigrants-michael-g/?guccounter=1
Mike Galsworthy has an uncharacteristically furious twitter response to that bare faced lie.

people have noticed the UK - and its politicians - needs help understanding this

Venezuala is what happens when governments don't understand economics. A R4 prog this week mentioned that Venezualians have on average lost 12kg this year. It was the 4th richest country in the world in 1950. Now starving.
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/venezuela-the-country-that-should-have-been-so-rich-but-ended-up-this-poor-a7038421.html

BigChocFrenzy · 23/05/2018 21:58

Even for a Brexiter, that is a particularly bare-arsed lie from GoveAngry

woman11017 · 23/05/2018 22:34

@faisalislam
Also we’re hearing that it’s all the Brexit Bills - including the Trade and Customs Bills, which already include double figures Tory rebels as Amendment signatories ... not just EU Withdrawal Bill Lords Amendments - confirmation from Leadsom tomorrow

ERG Brexiter Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen hints at General Election tells me Tory MP rebels that vote against the Government in coming Withdrawal Bill votes will be “named and shamed” and held to account by their constituents and “ultimately it might be sooner than they think”

BigChocFrenzy · 23/05/2018 23:08

George Parkerr@GeorgeWParker* (FT political editor)
This is scarcely believable:
I'm told the cabinet has never been briefed by HMRC that the "max fac" option might cost business £20bn a year.
This option has been on the table since last August, but ministers have never been told what it would cost??
6:25 pm · 23 May 2018
🤦🏻‍♀️