Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westministenders: Stalling for Time

963 replies

RedToothBrush · 12/05/2018 14:32

After 14 defeats, the Withdrawal Bill exited the Lords. In much worse condition than anyone dared to predicted.

Now we have those who were viciously against Lords reform, all of a sudden shouting about how much we desperately need it. Well fancy that. Tradition isn't so attractive if you aren't getting your own way.

Daniel Hannan has suddenly admitted that Brexit is not 'going to plan' (there was one?) and Johnson is still his weekly resignation threat.

It now throws things back into Corbyn's court. The Tory Rebel Forces think that they have the numbers to stay in the Single Market, but are blocked by Corbyn's opposition to it.

The decision on the customs union has effectively been pushed back to the Autumn by May, but we have to make a decision about the Irish border by June or trade talks won't go ahead as planned.

The trouble is that the Cabinet can not decide on which option they want to take, but neither is particularly viable anyway. Max Fac means a border in the Irish Sea which the DUP won't like and the Customs Partnership isn't acceptable to the Empire Tories. In any case it seems unlikely that either option could get through the Commons in their current form due to the growing number of Tory Rebel Forces.

May also has a problem with the grass roots. It is more or less impossible for her to deliver the Brexit they desire whatever she tries.

The growing backlash about the hostile environment also undermines the point of Brexit in reducing immigration. Its is growing apparent, WHY we need immigration and that the people who are being targeted for deportation are simply the easiest to pick off and not the ones that people see as 'a problem'. Indeed you have to wonder about how many immigrants ARE a problem. The idea to control immigration after Brexit was not through the border but through the hostile environment, yet this seems now to be something that will be impossible to continue with politically.

Leave.EU have now been referred to the police for breaking Electoral Law. It also turns out that they found numerous ways to beat the spending limit legally. The female data controller has also been found to have data protection law. Meanwhile Banks and Wigmore as well as Nix (CA and SCL), Cummings (Vote Leave) and Silvester (AIQ) have all been summoned to appear because the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. Zuckerberg also does not appear to have completed his answers to the committee as Facebook have had their homework deadline extended to Monday (and has been asked to appear by the 24th May whilst he is in Europe).

Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee Dates
Electoral Commission - Tuesday 15th May
Silvester - Wednesday 16th May
Cummings / Nix - Summoned to appear Tuesday 22nd May
Banks / Wigmore - Tuesday 16th June

Also in parliament in next weeks is and interesting looking ten minute rule bill named 'Representation of the People (Gibraltar)' - Tuesday 15th May

Anyway, we are all set for the predictable 'who blinks first' brinkmanship with the UK aware that if the EU don't blink we go over the cliff and parliament aware that if May delays long enough she bypasses parliamentary democracy or put it in a position with a gun to its head.

Who is looking forward to this year's 'row of the summer'?
It could be a long, hot summer.

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision and the UK to get some points and not come last. Its not going to happen is it?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
46
KennDodd · 21/05/2018 07:58

Do you think any politicians will just come out and state the fucking obvious, that a hard Brexit and the GFA are fundamentally incompatible and one of them has to go? How do we think the public will respond to that? I think many will insist it isn't, so bad reactions on the opinion polls, unicorns DO exist.

KennDodd · 21/05/2018 08:01

Also, anybody else think the DUP despite everything they say, actually DO want a hard border?

BigChocFrenzy · 21/05/2018 08:07

No, the way to avoid a new border anywhere is to stay in the Single Market.
However, both major parties are putting party politics before country and are refusing that.

There is insufficient time to create something that completely reproduces the SM, but can be called another name, to allay public fears about FOM etc

The basic 3 prerequisites the EU originally laid out - with just NI border unresolved - must be agreed before October
and possibly even by the end of June, if the EU Council meeting decides to stop trade talks then

My hope is that agreeing the NI backstop by then - and hence a transition - would enable moderate forces to gain acceptance during the extra 20 months that gives.

BUT, the ERG and the disaster capitalists don't want the least painful Brexit

  • some have quietly published to their investors that the best opportunities for profit are when an economy is in meltdown and a society & its public services are disintegrating,
e.g. a bonanza like Russia in the 1990s
BigChocFrenzy · 21/05/2018 08:12

The DUP and many on the Tory hard right HATED the GFA and bitterly opposed it
because they don't do cooperation; they only want to dictate

They would be delighted to roll back all the GFA concessions to Catholics / Nationlists /RoI, which included so much cross-border cooperation
and stopped England ruling absolutely as the DUP & Tory right think it should

BigChocFrenzy · 21/05/2018 08:13

The disaster capitalists, who are a different group, don't give a damn about NI, but a hard border would increase the chances for profit

Motheroffourdragons · 21/05/2018 08:14

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

prettybird · 21/05/2018 08:26

The only way for NI to avoid border infrastructure is for it to be both in the SM and the CU. It might be possible to fudge wangle something where the UK stays in the SM and only NI stays in the CU.

Norway is in the SM but not in the CU, hence the continued existence of infrastructure that is still required and used between Norway and Sweden. The Norwegians have themselves said that their border is not frictionless.

Anyone who has flown into Geneva and hired a car on the French side of the airport will have experienced the "French" land corridor with high wire fences that you drive through to get to France proper. So even with Switzerland, borders exist.

But still the Brexiteers think unicorns exist stick their heads in the sand Confused

BigChocFrenzy · 21/05/2018 08:42

The problem is, the Tories have to show some benefits changes resulting from Brexit - other than economic damage ! - or it is too obvious what idiocy Brexit is

and some of the changes they want are prevented by the SM:

  • stopping FOM
  • out of ECJ

and others by a CU:

  • ability to do their own trade deals

What would give most of what they want is EEA / EFTA plus a customised customs arrangement, to avoid the 1-2 hours delay in goods traffic that Norway has

So, Norway+
which could also include special terms for NI

BigChocFrenzy · 21/05/2018 08:43

but that would remove many of the opportunities for the disaster capitalists to loot post-Brexit
and they have bought a lot of influence in the Tory party and the media

KennDodd · 21/05/2018 08:50

How are the disaster capitalists going to make money out of this?

woman11017 · 21/05/2018 08:57

How are the disaster capitalists going to make money out of this
Food/private security firms/ Medicines/ Cancer treatment etc They've not deigned to organise national infrastructure, but I doubt that deals have not been pencilled in.

RedToothBrush · 21/05/2018 09:40

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-party-faces-future-of-decline-if-it-does-not-broaden-its-appeal-3bs3qndlm
Tory party faces future of decline if it does not broaden its appeal

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/99de2410-5c6c-11e8-a5a8-017dcfd37dc1
Conservatives must look beyond core vote or lose way, warns Michael Gove

Two articles on essentially the same thing.

One poll this weekend had May ahead of Corbyn for who would make the best PM. In the 18 - 25 age group....

OP posts:
Peregrina · 21/05/2018 09:46

It's a bit rich of the Tories talking about bringing prosperity to areas of the country left behind, considering that a significant number of those areas got left behind as a result of Thatcher's policies. Selling off council houses was an easy win for Thatcher, as was taking on the more belligerent of the Trade Unions. I can't see what easy wins are there for the current Tory leadership, and nor can I see them wanting to be a party which predominantly appeals to the working class voter, although they need them to prop up their numbers.

DGRossetti · 21/05/2018 09:54

How are the disaster capitalists going to make money out of this

They already are.

Icantreachthepretzels · 21/05/2018 10:38

[https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/21/support-for-brexit-falls-sharply-in-northern-ireland]]

Backing for leave has dropped 13 points in Northern Ireland - which is a pretty major swing.
Nearly 350 000 people voted to leave in 2016. It would be considerably less now... demands for a people's vote are only going to intensify.

Icantreachthepretzels · 21/05/2018 10:39

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/21/support-for-brexit-falls-sharply-in-northern-ireland

and this time with a working link!

woman11017 · 21/05/2018 12:25

May ahead of Corbyn for who would make the best PM. In the 18 - 25 age group....
Good thread by 19 yr old labour pro EU woman.
twitter.com/tessmillsy/status/998257175565881345

RedToothBrush · 21/05/2018 12:46

www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/senior-tory-plans-raid-pensioners-homes-solve-care-crisis/amp/?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
Senior Tory plans raid on pensioners' homes to solve care crisis

Home-owning pensioners would be forced to pay up to £30,000 each as part of a radical plan to solve Britain's care funding crisis under proposals being promoted by a former government minister.

Damian Green, who served as work and pensions minister and Theresa May's unofficial deputy, suggested over-65s who own their homes outright should be made to release equity from their properties to fund a national pot used to meet the country's rising care costs.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 21/05/2018 13:33

Irexit again: BREXITEERS launch a bid today to convince Irish voters to join with the UK in leaving the European Union.
The move is an attempt to go over the head of the pro-EU Hmm Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/962411/brext-news-ireland-leaving-eu-leo-varadkar

I bet Varadkar is shaking in his shoes 🤦🏻‍♀️

btw, "pro-EU" ? He's pro-RoI, as is his duty to be
but of course anyone who won't sacrifice for Brexit is "pro-EU"

BigChocFrenzy · 21/05/2018 13:44

NI: Voters in North would support remain more strongly in second referendum

Almost 70% would favour remaining compared to 56% in original June 2016 vote

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/voters-in-north-would-support-remain-more-strongly-in-second-referendum-1.3502203

frumpety · 21/05/2018 14:37

Red that Telegraph article does make you wonder if the Conservatives actually want anybody to vote for them ?

DGRossetti · 21/05/2018 15:15

Home-owning pensioners would be forced to pay up to £30,000 each as part of a radical plan to solve Britain's care funding crisis under proposals being promoted by a former government minister.

Hmm, deja vecu ?

Unlikely to happen though. There's no way the vested interests that rely on stupid property prices are going to allow a scheme which seems almost specifically intended to flood the market with houses, as people divest themselves of the capital to prevent the government getting its hands on it.

Anyway, isn't soaking personal wealth a very socialist ideal ?

I guess with this shift - and the concern of the Tories over the Union, they're moving towards a form of National Socialism ?

DGRossetti · 21/05/2018 15:18

Red that Telegraph article does make you wonder if the Conservatives actually want anybody to vote for them ?

Watching an old QI last night, we were left with another great Stalin quote - annoyingly less well known than the tragedy/statistic one ...

It's not the people that cast the votes that matter. It's the people that count the votes ...

GhostofFrankGrimes · 21/05/2018 16:07

Government draws up plans to park lorries on M20 in event of post-Brexit customs delays at Dover - Politics live

www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/may/21/brexit-northern-ireland-voters-sure-hard-border-would-provoke-violence-report-says-politics-live

okdok · 21/05/2018 16:17

I think I read that 95% of RoI citizens want to remain in the EU?
So what are Brexiters actually seeking to achieve in pretenting that they want RoI to join UK in brexiting?

Swipe left for the next trending thread