Westministenders: Stalling for Time

[RedToothBrush]

After 14 defeats, the Withdrawal Bill exited the Lords. In much worse condition than anyone dared to predicted.

Now we have those who were viciously against Lords reform, all of a sudden shouting about how much we desperately need it. Well fancy that. Tradition isn't so attractive if you aren't getting your own way.

Daniel Hannan has suddenly admitted that Brexit is not 'going to plan' (there was one?) and Johnson is still his weekly resignation threat.

It now throws things back into Corbyn's court. The Tory Rebel Forces think that they have the numbers to stay in the Single Market, but are blocked by Corbyn's opposition to it.

The decision on the customs union has effectively been pushed back to the Autumn by May, but we have to make a decision about the Irish border by June or trade talks won't go ahead as planned.

The trouble is that the Cabinet can not decide on which option they want to take, but neither is particularly viable anyway. Max Fac means a border in the Irish Sea which the DUP won't like and the Customs Partnership isn't acceptable to the Empire Tories. In any case it seems unlikely that either option could get through the Commons in their current form due to the growing number of Tory Rebel Forces.

May also has a problem with the grass roots. It is more or less impossible for her to deliver the Brexit they desire whatever she tries.

The growing backlash about the hostile environment also undermines the point of Brexit in reducing immigration. Its is growing apparent, WHY we need immigration and that the people who are being targeted for deportation are simply the easiest to pick off and not the ones that people see as 'a problem'. Indeed you have to wonder about how many immigrants ARE a problem. The idea to control immigration after Brexit was not through the border but through the hostile environment, yet this seems now to be something that will be impossible to continue with politically.

Leave.EU have now been referred to the police for breaking Electoral Law. It also turns out that they found numerous ways to beat the spending limit legally. The female data controller has also been found to have data protection law. Meanwhile Banks and Wigmore as well as Nix (CA and SCL), Cummings (Vote Leave) and Silvester (AIQ) have all been summoned to appear because the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. Zuckerberg also does not appear to have completed his answers to the committee as Facebook have had their homework deadline extended to Monday (and has been asked to appear by the 24th May whilst he is in Europe).

Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee Dates
Electoral Commission - Tuesday 15th May
Silvester - Wednesday 16th May
Cummings / Nix - Summoned to appear Tuesday 22nd May
Banks / Wigmore - Tuesday 16th June

Also in parliament in next weeks is and interesting looking ten minute rule bill named 'Representation of the People (Gibraltar)' - Tuesday 15th May

Anyway, we are all set for the predictable 'who blinks first' brinkmanship with the UK aware that if the EU don't blink we go over the cliff and parliament aware that if May delays long enough she bypasses parliamentary democracy or put it in a position with a gun to its head.

Who is looking forward to this year's 'row of the summer'?
It could be a long, hot summer.

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision and the UK to get some points and not come last. Its not going to happen is it?

We just don't have the time and space for another GE

ok I'm struggling to see the downside of not depending on a sectarian, xenophobic, misogynistic party deeply enmeshed in far right groups across the UK
and used as a conduit by such groups for dodgy funding by dodgy oligarchs

Sensible Unionists are already looking ahead to when they become a minority and are discussing with the RoI what would happen in that future.
The main Unionist party - the DUP - is too stupid and sectarian to do this, which should be part of their duty od representing Unionists.

Their plan seems to be to cut the GFA and to ally with the Tory hard right to thwart future democratic / demographic change.

Fortunately, the RoI and Catholics / Nationalists won't repeat the massive oppression that Unionists - when they were a large majority - used to keep down Catholics and favour Protestants.

It should be a major source of shame for the UK that it allowed one of its 4 member countries to start and then continue this oppression for decades.
Successive UK govts ignored this, until the anger at the injustice and violence finally flared up into Republican violence, which affected the rUK

The USA, Australia and the rest of the world Irish diaspora certainly hold the UK as being negligent and responsible for ensuring that at least in future, the rights of Catholics and Nationalists are upheld.
Otherwise, expect serious consequences from these countries, e.g. when the USA Congress must approve trade deals

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
Brexit klaxon: Remain-supporting digital minister Margot James lays down her own red line on customs “It is utterly senseless for us to sanction a system in which there are any delays in our major manufacturers getting the components they need.”

On Marr today Labour's Barry Gardiner was asked "Which Barry Gardiner is the truth? The one that speaks in private or the one on telly now?" And then shown a clip of him saying that Labour's Brexit policy was bollocks.

In response Tory HQ released this statement about Steve Baker

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
Steve Baker @SteveBakerHW the former ERG head who accepted a job in government last year, implies he never says anything in private he wouldn’t say in public

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Although judging by accounts of the ERG meeting 10 days ago, some people are wondering what he actually believes...

I heard he had a hard time from the ERG after sticking to the line in largish meeting of the hard Brexit caucus. There are unconfirmed whispers (which I’m sure he’d deny) he’s not happy.

Which means there are so many levels of unwitting irony in today’s @cchq @SteveBakerHW email

I suppose the question for @SteveBakerHW is how well no deal planning is going (that’s his role in dexeu)

It’s not hard to find ppl in gvt saying it’s not going well at all (in particular IT systems procurement and legislation).

So I can see reasons why he’d be unhappy

But equally just like all other ministers he probably likes being a minister so will swallow it!

Yes I'm sure the Minister for No Deal and key ERG founder is privately saying the same publicly and privately especially after the mouthful May gave Mogg.

He is Minister for the opposite of the government line which he has to defend with the government intention to never need his work.

He is the Minister of Pointlessness. Even more so than Fox.

And he can't even do his pointless job!

amp.ft.com/content/32eb170a-5c2a-11e8-ad91-e01af256df68?__twitter_impression=true
UK has not renewed Roman Abramovich’s visa
Oligarch and owner of Chelsea football club returns to Russia

UK authorities have yet to renew Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich’s visa after it expired last month, three people close to the billionaire have told the FT, as geopolitical tensions rise between Moscow and the west.

The Kremlin-connected, London-based Mr Abramovich — who, with a net worth of £9.3bn, is Britain’s 13th-richest man according to the Sunday Times — has returned to Russia after his investor visa ran out, according to two people close to him.

Mr Abramovich did not attend yesterday’s FA Cup final, which Chelsea, the team he owns, won 1-0.

A third person close to Mr Abramovich said that his request for a new visa had not been denied, but said that UK authorities were taking longer than usual to renew it without offering any explanation. The Home Office declined to comment.

Raises eyebrows.

About those deals we have with countries via the EU, such as Japan

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/20/secret-brexit-deal-scotch-whisky-threat-us-imports?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet&__twitter_impression=true
Secret Brexit deal could threaten scotch whisky
Spirit is under threat from US imports in classified talks to remove barriers to trade

Cheap American Whiskey flooding the market. Melton Mobray pies and Cornish Pasties made in the USA.

What's not to like? Everything will be cheaper. But you won't be able to afford it as you'll have no job or be paying a fortune in tax to support those work shy former pastie makers and distillers.

That FT article about Japan.

The Home Office turned down 6000 skilled worker visas for Japanese companies last year.

‏ @JolyonMaugham
Not one single MP should be lectured on their duties by @SteveBakerHW, a man who conspired to cheat the electorate and to thwart the rules our Parliament had set out.

@SteveBakerHW
In other news, the flowers are coming along nicely

Αnd poor Peter North seems to be having a funny turn also.

Spirit is under threat from US imports in classified talks

Verified account @adampayne26
Adam Payne Retweeted Aubrey Allegretti
For what it's worth, I was told today by a reliable source that a US State Department official who visited London recently warned that the US was "ready to eat Britain alive" in trade talks. "They're frothing at the mouth," they told me.

The M&S chief executive, Steve Rowe, is shutting 100 of its large clothing and food shops amid falling sales and profits. It has already closed 20, affecting about 900 jobs, but staff are braced for the axe to fall on another tranche of stores before the announcement of its annual results on Wednesday

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/20/marks-spencer-to-reveal-latest-list-of-store-closures

I'm trying to work out what "turned down 6,000 Tier 2 visas" actually means. Tier 2 is a relatively straight forward process, and if you met the criteria it is granted. It's even more straightforward if it's a Tier 2 Intra Company transfer.

So either companies are failing to support their employees in making good applications (eg not helping them sort out the necessary documentation), which seems unlikely as they would mostly use specialist immigration lawyers to handle the paperwork; or the employees are failing because of things like past criminal convictions, which also seems unlikely in that magnitude.

It's probably to do with companies requesting an uplift in the number of sponsor certificates that they can issue and being refused to the tune of 6,000 requests being turned down. I know I'm being pedantic, but this is a slightly different thing from "6,000 visa refusals"

Cheap American Whiskey flooding the market

Pleased I make my own ...

Nicola Sturgeon has retweeted this from Malcolm Chisolm. He is a former Labour MSP - but one who refused to tow the party line if he didn't think it was the right thing for Scotland which didn't make him popular with the Labour leadership

@MalcolmChishol1: The power grab is more about facilitating trade deals such as this than about UK common frameworks which could easily be negotiated by consent
(with a link to the Guardian article that RTB has linked to about the classified wonder why? US trade talks which could damage the Scottish whisky industry amongst others )

My thought about the Tories needing DUP support is that once they no longer do so they will go for a sea border, which will facilitate a swift departure from the EU.

Olennas Maybe it is like the refusal of the visas to all those junior NHS doctors.

• The Home Office just refusing visas to anyone who doesn't earn over 50k

Remember too, that the Home Office breaks the rules and even refuses to obey xourt decisions.
Anything to bring down the headline number of immigrants, even key workers

ok That would be after a GE then,
because even if Labour abstain to allow the Tories to pass Brexit legislation,
they surely must try for a vote of No Confidence if the DUP announce they have ended the Confidence & Supply arrangement

But rumour has it the GE may be in the autumn. In which case we can have a sea border and a crash out right in time for March 2019.
I agree with ok, as awful as the DUP may be - it will be much worse if events transpire which mean the tories don't need them

Why would a sea border mean a crash-out ?
My understanding is that it can solve the NI border issue to the satisfaction of the RoI and E27

Therefore, the Uk would get a transition until 31 Dec 2020

Yes, the Uk needs to stay in the SM, to avoid economic meltdown,
but the transition would give more time hopefully for the govt and sufficient MPs to accept this, when e.g. they see non-EU countries refusing to give the UK as good terms as they give the EU

Of course, any Brexit is worse than Remain, but Remain is not on the table

It's a bad option for NI, but the best for rUK not a crash-out
The other option for NI - a hard border - is even worse, as it may restart the Troubles

The only option that is good for NI and the whole UK is for the UK to stay in the Single Market,
but that would split the Tory party and of course for politicians it's party before country.

Getting agreement on the NI border means we get a transition deal
That gives time to gain acceptance for the SM and the best deal for everyone.

No border deal means no transition
which means a crashout with a hard NI border and possible restrat of the Troubles, economic meltdown across the UK …

I am comforted in a weird way by the fact that the dup will drop may like a hot potato if she tries to alienate NI from the rest of the uk and by the sounds of your links above all this could go on for years and years.
Motheroffour

The DUP might indeed drop May. But they would not just lie low afterwards and wait to see how things panned out. If they decide to drop May it will be because she is looking soft on the Union. If she appears to be backsliding then they will transfer allegiance to any Tory leader candidate who can give them a solid assurance on the Union. If it looks as if the Tories might need the support of the DUP after the next GE, then they will remain relevant to British politics.

The DUP would probably choose the Union over any other factor in all of this. They would choose Union over the GFA certainly, but also over the prospect of losing an open border, and over the prospect of economic ruin for the agriculture sector in NI. I hope I have them wrong. It would be nice to be able to say there is a chance they would be practical for once.

In the event of an election returning any party with a working majority and the DUP being left out in the cold, an Irish Sea border might be possible. Corbyn would do it, and so would any Tory PM who wasn't wedded ideologically to the Union idea when it comes to NI. (Hard to see who that might be though.) However, this would enable GB to pursue a harder Brexit than it could pursue while tied to the Irish border. (Unless Scotland could act as a braking system).

Obv it's in the interest of the DUP to have a weak government of any stripe. They wouldn't let Labour get away with shrugging off NI without the granddaddy of all fights. Any Tory wishing to be very practical here will also have a massive fight on his or her hands. It might well be that the Loyalists would be the ones to fire the first shots over this.