Westministenders: Stalling for Time

[RedToothBrush]

After 14 defeats, the Withdrawal Bill exited the Lords. In much worse condition than anyone dared to predicted.

Now we have those who were viciously against Lords reform, all of a sudden shouting about how much we desperately need it. Well fancy that. Tradition isn't so attractive if you aren't getting your own way.

Daniel Hannan has suddenly admitted that Brexit is not 'going to plan' (there was one?) and Johnson is still his weekly resignation threat.

It now throws things back into Corbyn's court. The Tory Rebel Forces think that they have the numbers to stay in the Single Market, but are blocked by Corbyn's opposition to it.

The decision on the customs union has effectively been pushed back to the Autumn by May, but we have to make a decision about the Irish border by June or trade talks won't go ahead as planned.

The trouble is that the Cabinet can not decide on which option they want to take, but neither is particularly viable anyway. Max Fac means a border in the Irish Sea which the DUP won't like and the Customs Partnership isn't acceptable to the Empire Tories. In any case it seems unlikely that either option could get through the Commons in their current form due to the growing number of Tory Rebel Forces.

May also has a problem with the grass roots. It is more or less impossible for her to deliver the Brexit they desire whatever she tries.

The growing backlash about the hostile environment also undermines the point of Brexit in reducing immigration. Its is growing apparent, WHY we need immigration and that the people who are being targeted for deportation are simply the easiest to pick off and not the ones that people see as 'a problem'. Indeed you have to wonder about how many immigrants ARE a problem. The idea to control immigration after Brexit was not through the border but through the hostile environment, yet this seems now to be something that will be impossible to continue with politically.

Leave.EU have now been referred to the police for breaking Electoral Law. It also turns out that they found numerous ways to beat the spending limit legally. The female data controller has also been found to have data protection law. Meanwhile Banks and Wigmore as well as Nix (CA and SCL), Cummings (Vote Leave) and Silvester (AIQ) have all been summoned to appear because the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. Zuckerberg also does not appear to have completed his answers to the committee as Facebook have had their homework deadline extended to Monday (and has been asked to appear by the 24th May whilst he is in Europe).

Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee Dates
Electoral Commission - Tuesday 15th May
Silvester - Wednesday 16th May
Cummings / Nix - Summoned to appear Tuesday 22nd May
Banks / Wigmore - Tuesday 16th June

Also in parliament in next weeks is and interesting looking ten minute rule bill named 'Representation of the People (Gibraltar)' - Tuesday 15th May

Anyway, we are all set for the predictable 'who blinks first' brinkmanship with the UK aware that if the EU don't blink we go over the cliff and parliament aware that if May delays long enough she bypasses parliamentary democracy or put it in a position with a gun to its head.

Who is looking forward to this year's 'row of the summer'?
It could be a long, hot summer.

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision and the UK to get some points and not come last. Its not going to happen is it?

The Tories took the last GE, with the drop in SNP support and especially MPs, as confirming their belief that Scotland was not serious about wanting independence

So basically, they took it as permission to do what they want, regardless of Scotland

I definitely think that the UK needs a federal structure, if it is to be survive as more than England and its last colonies.

Due to the disparity that would result from electing an upper house for this, I would suggest just take the First Minister of each country, to sit on a Federal Council

This Federal Council would also have the PM of the UK, to give 5 members and would have to agree on key decisions that would affect the lives in all 4 countries,
e.g. like leaving the EU, signing new trade treaties, going to war, abolishing the NHS, renationalising major industries etc

Voting SNP would not mean an SNP govt for any longer than the leaving phase,
because imo after Independence the SNP would seriously shrink, as many of its supporters reverted to the ordinary left / right / centre parties.

NI: UK qualifies implications of ‘full alignment’ Brexit pledge

This - weasel words and backtracking - is why the EU and especially the RoI want every single aspect & term defined precisely, in written text and signed in the Withdrawal Agreement,
before they will agree to any framework for a future trade deal

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/uk-qualifies-implications-of-full-alignment-brexit-pledge-1.3320823

The British government has played down the implications of a promise of “full alignment” of policies to support an all-island economy in Ireland if other ways of avoiding a hard border cannot be agreed.

A senior official at the Department for Exiting the European Union in Westminster said on Friday that the commitment applies only to the six areas of North-South economic co-operation identified in the Belfast Agreement.
These are transport, agriculture, education, health, environment and tourism.

He said that 142 cross-border policy areas identified by the Barnier task force were subsets of the original six, and
insisted that the commitment did not undermine Britain’s declaration that it would leave the single market and the customs union.

“It’s the six areas.
The 142 are a deeper dive across those six areas.
The ambition at the moment clearly is to get cross-border trading arrangements to maintain the status quo as much as we can,” the official said.
There are a very unique set of circumstances that apply to Ireland that don’t apply to anywhere else in the UK.

But in terms of customs union and single market membership, the UK as a whole will be leaving”
…
The prime minister has also said that, during that implementation period, you can expect things to be broadly similar to how they are today.

< without guarantees about the NI border, there may be NO "implementation" / transition period, just Brexit on 29 March 2019.

The way out would be to agree that leaving the SM can be the UK govt's longterm aim - which of course any following govt can drop - but that until the high tech border solutions are available & proven to work, the whole UK will remain in the SM;

In practice this is likely to be 10, 20+ years - and the horse may learn to talk ! >

Mother What you - and I - want is a Federal structure, which the UK certainly does not have

It's fine to want that, but we need to accept that it currently doesn't exist

The Tories and Labour - I don't know about the LDems ? - definitely don't want a Federal UK, which would dilute their power when elected in UK GEs

So it won't happen, unless maybe it becomes a last desperate attempt to stop countries like Scotland leaving the Uk
Currently, Scottish voters have removed any political pressure for this change

May thinks that English voters - who mainly elected her govt - want to leave the SM

The ERG - snapping at her heels - want to leave the SM
She herself wants to leave the SM, to stop FOM

So that's one of her red lines.

First thing I've seen on twitter this morning is this newspaper extract. Not had chance to source. It says Tory MPs are preparing for an Autumn GE.

It suggests it would be triggered by a vote of no confidence in the government. There are three groups who might trigger this: the ERG, the Rebels or the DUP.

The Rebels won't. They fear Corbyn government most. They have no desire to oust the government. They have the parliamentary numbers to get what they want.

The DUP can not go with a back stop option. Not is Max Fac acceptable to them for the sake of the Union. May seems to be supportive of the DUP and in their camp.

The ERG can not accept either the Rebel amendments, the DUP position not an adaptation of the Customs Partnership. Johnson has been noted to have gone quiet and to have been outgunned.

My assumption is that the ERG who don't give a damn about the prospect of the break up of the union or a Corbyn government think they have nothing to lose and are gambling on a high stakes plot with Labour to no confidence the government. Also seeing that the latest polling is slightly in the Tories favour and even if they do lose they hand Labour the poison chalice of Brexit. And perhaps in doing so offer a way of saving the party.

Frankly Labour should abstain rather than be sucked into that trap. They won't.

Who will be the first to say 'not another one'?

Voting SNP would not mean an SNP govt for any longer than the leaving phase, because imo after Independence the SNP would seriously shrink, as many of its supporters reverted to the ordinary left / right / centre parties.

cf. UKIP ?

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/19/dominic-cummings-is-the-true-cowardly-face-of-the-brexiters?__twitter_impression=true
Dominic Cummings is the true cowardly face of the Brexiters
By Nick Cohen

Dominic Cummings is just a troll. He may have trolled the whole country and changed the course of British history, but he’s still the man with an egg for a face, who screams everyone must be accountable for their actions – everyone except him.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-mps-prepare-for-snap-autumn-election-as-theresa-may-hit-by-brexit-deadlock-3ppzg9l3r?shareToken=c310a6f2399158bf5d917c52e2a7f81d
Tory MPs prepare for snap autumn election as Theresa May hit by Brexit deadlock

Times article on that GE rumour. Full article with share token.

Newsnight on Friday said that Rudd, Greening and Green were effectively trying to marginalise the ERG and the Rebels and build a more moderate compromise.

They also pointed out the magic numbers. The 50 odd to trigger a vote of no confidence in the PM which the ERG have. And the 159 to oust May which the ERG don't have.

This is what is happening. You have Johnson and co trying to win the 159 they need and Rudd and co trying to protect the PM by heading it off.

The Times article is the ERG playing the media in response to the Newsnight report. They are trying to stir the pot.

I think, at this stage, unless May herself triggers a GE (perhaps to unblock the EU Withdrawal Bill) an Autumn GE is still more unlikely than likely, but Tory MP on both sides are on manoeuvres and preparing for the possibility and the other parties definitely have wind of it.

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/20/theresa-may-brexit-realists-jacob-rees-mogg?__twitter_impression=true
Brexit realists take control as May slaps down Rees-Mogg
The prime minister finally gave the arch-Brexiter MP a dressing down last week as she took on the cabinet’s Leavers

It was the moment that pro-Remain Conservative MPs had been longing for, but feared would never happen – when the prime minister cut the arch-Brexiter Jacob Rees-Mogg down to size. One MP who witnessed Theresa May’s newfound assertiveness likened it to a long-suffering teacher finally losing patience with the class know-all. “She just slapped him down, decisively. She showed she can do it. She was brilliant.”

When Rees-Mogg got his chance he was quick to ask the prime minister why she could not do what seemed the obvious thing for a hard Brexiter like him – forget any deal and just keep open the border after Brexit. “He was basically calling for a no-deal,” said another who attended.

May has often been accused of sitting on the fence on Brexit, of failing to give a lead and ducking out of confrontations with either side in her split party. On this occasion, however, she broke that habit and gave Rees-Mogg a piece of her mind. According to several sources, she spelled out in no uncertain terms the serious problems and costs that would result from having to resort to World Trade Organisation rules, while also stressing the potentially grave security dangers that would follow if and when the Republic of Ireland had to reimpose border controls on the orders of the EU in order to preserve the integrity of the single market.

“It was the most amazing moment when the Rees-Mogg claptrap finally met cold reality,” said one Remain MP who attended. “She became animated in a way she doesn’t normally, she was completely engaged, not robotic at all. She was really concerned about the security issue and she showed she really meant every word she said.”

When do we get to the point where we are "all remainders now"?

www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-boris-johnson-soft-brexit-customs-a8359371.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true
The prime minister is boiling the Brexiteer frogs: the water is getting hotter and none of them has jumped out of the pan
Theresa May's attempt to keep her cabinet together has pushed the timetable for the final stages of the Brexit talks back to quite late in the day, and the legislative logjam in the House of Commons towards the end of this year could be fraught

No, nothing like UKIP

Both look like ducks to me. Parties predicated upon independence for their respective countries. UKIP seems to have evaporated following the realisation of their stated goal. Seemed to me the suggestion that the SNP might undergo the same experience has some merit.

Beyond that, it's an academic debate. I'm never going to vote UKIP and can't vote SNP ....

The SNP will shrink post independence as it will lose those voters who are voting for them purely as a means to an end (although in the Scottish Parliament, there is also the option of voting for the Greens who are also pro-Indy - and where we have a PR system, so that votes aren't wasted).

Labour will have the opportunity to re-invent itself and will regain much of the support it has lost. I look forward to that. Even the Tories, who tended to be more pragmatic "One Nation" Conservatives may find a new impetus.

That is right and proper

However, unlike UKIP, the SNP have proven themselves in government - at both a national and a local level - and at the moment appear to be the only effective opposition in Westminster where they remain the 3rd largest party, despite only contesting Scottish seats.

The Scottish Parliament was designed some even said deliberately in order to keep the SNP out never to have a majority and to force consensus politics. The Labour and Lib-Dems initially governed with coalitions and the SNP have been in power since 2007 - initially with a minority government, then in 2011 with a majority government (when they broke the d'Hondt system of PR) and now again with a minority government (although the Parliament itself is still majority Indy supporting). It's probably better when it's a minority government as, being a unicameral parliament, all the committees that provide oversight of proposed legislation are structured according to the proportions of MSPs.

The LibDems have always supported a federal structure for the UK and, to be fair, on Richard Leonard, the leader of Scottish Labour, he has now come out in favour of federalism (but there again, Scottish Labour are just a "branch office" and Corbyn/UK Labour will never agree to it )

Dh read a book back in the late 70s called "Internal Colonialism" as part of his Geography degree. It described how, with the global British Empire disappearing, all that was left of the Empire for the Civil Service and Establishment to control from London were the "colonies" of Scotland, Wales and NI . Nothing much has changed in the 40 years since - and in fact there has been a new edition of the book, with a new intro, to take into account devolution - but to reiterate that the colonialism has entrenched. The book had argued that federalism was the way ahead - but IMHO, that ship has now long since passed.

However, unlike UKIP, the SNP have proven themselves in government

Fair point !

One to watch.
As polls narrow before the abortion vote, is rural Ireland setting up a Brexit moment
With the referendum in the balance, campaigners are on the streets and social media, trying to swing the undecided
www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/20/ireland-referendum-abortion-divided-between-rival-camps-tech-firms-regulate-ads

Of course we could still have another complete curve ball with another referendum in the autumn...

Just caught up on all this.

FWIW, my opinion is that I cannot see any scenario in which the DUP would willingly accept a wet border; if it happens it'll be by some deft sleight of hand whereby they don't realise it's happened until the cards are laid. (But I see no sign that this government has the skills to pull that off.)

Vote Leave faces scrutiny over £50m football contest

What else is going to craw out of the woodwork ?

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/20/vote-leave-scrutiny-facebook-data-football-contest-brexit

Dominic Cummings, Vote Leave’s campaign director, admitted that the competition to win £50m was a data-harvesting exercise

. Talking about the necessity of data in targeting voters, he said:
“Data flowed in on the ground and was then analysed by the data science team and integrated with all the other data streaming in.
This was the point of our £50m prize for predicting the results of the European football championships, which gathered data from people who usually ignore politics.”

I worry about what will happen when the Tories no longer need the DUP.