Westministenders: Stalling for Time

[RedToothBrush]

After 14 defeats, the Withdrawal Bill exited the Lords. In much worse condition than anyone dared to predicted.

Now we have those who were viciously against Lords reform, all of a sudden shouting about how much we desperately need it. Well fancy that. Tradition isn't so attractive if you aren't getting your own way.

Daniel Hannan has suddenly admitted that Brexit is not 'going to plan' (there was one?) and Johnson is still his weekly resignation threat.

It now throws things back into Corbyn's court. The Tory Rebel Forces think that they have the numbers to stay in the Single Market, but are blocked by Corbyn's opposition to it.

The decision on the customs union has effectively been pushed back to the Autumn by May, but we have to make a decision about the Irish border by June or trade talks won't go ahead as planned.

The trouble is that the Cabinet can not decide on which option they want to take, but neither is particularly viable anyway. Max Fac means a border in the Irish Sea which the DUP won't like and the Customs Partnership isn't acceptable to the Empire Tories. In any case it seems unlikely that either option could get through the Commons in their current form due to the growing number of Tory Rebel Forces.

May also has a problem with the grass roots. It is more or less impossible for her to deliver the Brexit they desire whatever she tries.

The growing backlash about the hostile environment also undermines the point of Brexit in reducing immigration. Its is growing apparent, WHY we need immigration and that the people who are being targeted for deportation are simply the easiest to pick off and not the ones that people see as 'a problem'. Indeed you have to wonder about how many immigrants ARE a problem. The idea to control immigration after Brexit was not through the border but through the hostile environment, yet this seems now to be something that will be impossible to continue with politically.

Leave.EU have now been referred to the police for breaking Electoral Law. It also turns out that they found numerous ways to beat the spending limit legally. The female data controller has also been found to have data protection law. Meanwhile Banks and Wigmore as well as Nix (CA and SCL), Cummings (Vote Leave) and Silvester (AIQ) have all been summoned to appear because the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee. Zuckerberg also does not appear to have completed his answers to the committee as Facebook have had their homework deadline extended to Monday (and has been asked to appear by the 24th May whilst he is in Europe).

Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee Dates
Electoral Commission - Tuesday 15th May
Silvester - Wednesday 16th May
Cummings / Nix - Summoned to appear Tuesday 22nd May
Banks / Wigmore - Tuesday 16th June

Also in parliament in next weeks is and interesting looking ten minute rule bill named 'Representation of the People (Gibraltar)' - Tuesday 15th May

Anyway, we are all set for the predictable 'who blinks first' brinkmanship with the UK aware that if the EU don't blink we go over the cliff and parliament aware that if May delays long enough she bypasses parliamentary democracy or put it in a position with a gun to its head.

Who is looking forward to this year's 'row of the summer'?
It could be a long, hot summer.

Anyway, I want France to win Eurovision and the UK to get some points and not come last. Its not going to happen is it?

Yes quite DGRossetti.

If the rumour that May is about to ditch the EU Withdrawal Bill (after me saying yesterday that we look like we are stuck with it) is a point in case.

It was ALWAYS going to hit problems in the Lords. Because the Bill was a load of bollocks to be begin with. The Lords got blamed for pointing this out. Not the government who have tabled a Bill which is utter bollocks.

IF, and that's still a big if, they do ditch the EU Withdrawal Bill, just think how much Parliamentary time has been wasted by the entire process. The decision to plough ahead with something so utterly crap, is May's alone to defend.

As someone pointed out on twitter earlier today (I apologise as I don't recall who it was), one of May's first decisions was to create the Brexit Department and the Department of International Trade.

The former has been sidelined by the Cabinet Office and in recent months David Davis just pops up occasionally to look like the drunk wanker at the party that no one really wants to talk to.

The latter becomes totally obsolete if we don't leave the Customs Union. And there isn't a viable way to leave the Customs Union and maintain the GFA / ensure there is no sea border with the island of Ireland (one would see us reneging on two international agreements and the other is completely non compatible with the DUP).

And of course May went against the advice to get her plan in order BEFORE triggering a50. Look where that has got us so far. With a bunch of super rich vultures circling Brexit Britain to pick at the flesh.

Just HOW MUCH has been wasted on Brexit?

I wonder if we will see and hear more and more moderates on all sides taking up positions together in the near future?

If the oxygen of publicity is a limited resource, then maybe the Brexiteers have used all theirs up ? After all everyone knows what JRM thinks. He's made damn well sure of that.

One problem with "shy moderates" is that it can look like bandwagon jumping ... why didn't they speak up before ?

Ian Dunt @IanDunt
The EU's backstop solution to the Irish border is the first domino that leads to soft Brexit
www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/05/16/if-you-want-to-have-a-real-conversation-about-customs-talk-a
If you want to have a real conversation about customs, talk about the backstop

I shall repeat what I have ALWAYS said since BEFORE the vote. Brexit is all about the Irish Border. No option is currently compatible with the border question. It has always amazed me the extent to which so few journalists have really grasped this.

Sam Coates has reflected on it when live tweeting the EU Select Committee grilling of NI Secretary Karen Bradley this morning, where MPs avoided asking about it (until Kate Hoey, raised it to dismiss it).

Ian Dunt's article refers to the RTE article that has been posted this morning as well as this by Sam Lowe
www.cer.eu/insights/uk-must-swallow-unpalatable-irish-backstop
UK must swallow the unpalatable Irish backstop

Peter Foster of the Telegraph has done a lot about the custom union, saying that the current discussion is bollocks, but I don't recall him explicitly mentioning the backstop.

Faisal Islam has also looked closely at the Irish stuff but I don't recall an explicit reference to the backstop from him either. Just that neither government proposal is viable.

I find it quite remarkable to be honest. The forgotten elephant of the referendum itself, just keeps getting ignored in favour of pink elephants.

Not to mention the new elephant is the EU Withdrawal Bill numbers game. All the stuff about the ERG when they are irrelevant if Labour supports staying in the Customs Union with the assistance of Tory Rebels. And the Tory Rebels are with Labour, because no other alternative is a remote possibility within the time frame available.

Every single news outlet should be reporting this as it is. Instead we have this shit show of propaganda, misdirection, lies and bullshitting. From everyone from the BBC to the Mail. From Channel 4 to the Canary.

It is amazing to watch.

The rumour that the EU Withdrawal Bill is about to be ditched, would not surprise me in the least.

One problem with "shy moderates" is that it can look like bandwagon jumping ... why didn't they speak up before ?

Is it true they didn't speak before? Hansard tells a bit of a different story. Many many moderates raised concerns even though they said they would support a Brexit in principle. They wanted those concerns resolved. They haven't been.

The Mainstream Mass Media didn't want to know. Neither did most parts of the social media news outlet for that matter. At every turn they have been dismissed as just being part of Project Fear.

Just HOW MUCH has been wasted on Brexit?

I am sure there are many people (who were rich enough before) who are definitely better off, thanks to Brexit. They'd probably suggest that not enough has been spent on Brexit

(Watch out for that doozy, when it all fails: "We should have spent more on Brexit". Although I must have been on holiday and missed the Daily Mail headlines about millionaires queuing up to pay higher tax to support Brexit).

In fact it would be richly ironic of Brexit failed because of the inbuilt parsimony of wealth.

Do any of the Westminstender Italians have any reflections on this?

My two pence worth is that sweeping spectacular change (of any kind) is difficult to achieve in Italy.
Electoral laws have been re-written many times, but have often been designed to minimise the possibility that the winning party will have working majority. There are also many checks and balances built in the (written!) constitution.

Given that the Confindustria (the Italian equivalent of the CBI) can be a very powerful lobby, I don't think it's likely that the Lega-M5S will manage (or attempt) an exit from the Euro.

What I think is more worrying is the potential for Italy to elect a large group of Eurosceptic MEPs at the next European elections.

Do any of the Westminstender Italians have any reflections on this?

It's not very easy or smart to try and compare different countries political situations (not that it seems to have stopped monolingual Brexiteers).

What I think is more worrying is the potential for Italy to elect a large group of Eurosceptic MEPs at the next European elections.

My sense is that unlike the UKs Brexiteer Brigade - who just hated Europe and anything European - the Italian Eurosceptic drive is less dogmatic, and founded on a "what has Europe ever done for us ?" argument. Possibly stoked by the pull inside the EU that the UK exerted .

Also, understanding (or not) the mechanism of coalition governments has made most Italian quite savvy and pragmatic in voting. I spent a lot longer reading up on various issues before I voted, unlike my UK vote 2 weeks ago, which was a given.

It would help the public/the media/the MPs to understand the importance of the backstop position if the "border in the island of Ireland" stopped being referred to as the "Irish" border and started more accurately, in the context of Brexit, as the "EU border" - because therein lies all the irreconcilable issues unless we end up with BINO

It would help the public/the media/the MPs to understand the importance of the backstop position

You are presupposing that they care. I'm betting you could explain it in detail in a 10 hour scandinavian drama series on BBC4 which is watched by over a million people, and no one would have learned anything by the end.

You only have to refer to the "other thread" (which I notice had to be continued by a remainer, after no Leavers could be found) to see what happens when Brexiteers are confronted with hard questions:

• What's that got to do with it ?
• We won, get over it
• How should I know ?
• We won, get over it
• So ?
• We won, get over it
• And ?
• We won, get over it
• If you care so much, then that's your problem
• We won, get over it
• It's the will of the people (doncha'know ?)

rinse and repeat.

I'd be curious to know what %age of England still thinks that the Republic of Ireland is in someway part of the UK ? I know it's not zero.

Hopefully those foreigners will get the message now ....

www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/16/ukgov_knocks_back_more_than_1000_skilled_it_workers_visa_applications_in_a_quarter/

Thousands of skilled workers – including IT specialists and engineers – have been refused visas this year due to the British government's much-maligned immigration cap.

(contd)

Interesting moment in PMQs regarding trade deals with Africa which we are apparently very keen on. Came across as us doing African countries a massive favour by buying stuff off them and apparently we will be able to get the trade deal we want. Left me with a feeling that what brexiters want is to trade with countries they think we can tell what to do, which again goes back to their dislike of the EU as they won't do as they are told.

Interesting moment in PMQs regarding trade deals with Africa which we are apparently very keen on.

So why can't we do those deals right now ? (Maybe because that damn EU would insist that it's not at the expense of dodgy H&S in teh countries involved ?)

I agree with your analysis DGR. Italian Euroscepticism is a relatively recent phenomenon and is founded on concrete grievances rather than an ideological stance.

It seems to me that the main problems are:

• The fact that Euro membership constrains the government budgetary policies. While I personally think that is a good thing, there is no arguing that it represents a genuine (rather than imaginary) loss of sovreignity

• The fact that Italy received precious little help from the EU in dealing with a massive migration wave, whereby a week of decent weather brings more refugees to the Sicilian coasts than Theresa May has agreed to take in the next Parliament.

If memory serves, when the Italian navy asked the EU to contribute to its search and rescue missions, it was the UK who showed the greatest opposition to the idea...

I'd be curious to know what %age of England still thinks that the Republic of Ireland is in someway part of the UK ? I know it's not zero.

And who some of those people are might surprise you as well!
Anecdotal and not serious but... has anyone else noted that the Bulgarian Minister for magic is present at the quidditch world cup but there is no Irish counterpart present? Cornelius Fudge is there though...
Make of that what you will.

The fact that Italy received precious little help from the EU in dealing with a massive migration wave, whereby a week of decent weather brings more refugees to the Sicilian coasts than Theresa May has agreed to take in the next Parliament.

And yet the Mayor of Palermo has received public support for his humanitarian support for refugees. Which - if you knew how pisspoor Sicily is - puts the UK to shame.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everything_but_Arms

Yes the EU already helps poorer African states with free trade. It's funny how all the things brexiteers want to do we already can do.

Carole Cadwalladr @carolecadwalla
Ok, this is getting good now. Jeff Silvester has just admitted that company was working for SCL (Cambridge Analytica) and Vote Leave at the same time...

Paul Farrelly" "Can you explain why Facebook said that the ads for Vote Leave and BeLeave that you ran shared the exact audiences?" Jeff Silvester: "It's theoretically possible. @darrengrimes_ gave us directions." This is not stacking up. At all.

This point is really key. AIQ submitted written evidence BEFORE the committee published this letter from Facebook. Their answers are completely incompatible. C'mon @commonscms. If Darren Grimes was directing him, how is this possible??

"I would have to answer in hypotheticals," says Jeff Silvester when asked about how EXACT SAME datasets used by Vote Leave & BeLeave....giving a completely nonsense reply.

@DamianCollins now reading the letter from Facebook. The data was EXACTLY THE SAME. Jeff of AIQ has no answer. "I'll definitely look into it. I'll be surprised by that." Either they shared the data, says Collins. Or you did.

@IanCLucas tackles Jeff on relationships to Leave campaigns. You have relationship to SCL. And then ex-SCL employee intros you to Vote Leave. And then after Vote Leave, you're intro-ed to the DUP, BeLeave, Veterans for Britain they all came after Vote Leave....

It's really unclear why Jeff Silvester bothered to get on a plane. Fobbing off the committee. Evading questions. "I'll look into it" is the only answer he can give as to why and how he used exactly the same data set for Vote Leave & BeLeave.

pretty That's an important point:
The NI border is the only land border between the Uk & the EU

Also, we want "frictionless" trade for NI, but we also need it for the whole UK, or the economy will nose-dive.

The issue of more EU support for dealing with immigration flows is just about the only thing on the Liga/5star coalition agreement that is sensible. Italy and Greece have been left to shoulder the burden with very little support. However, I doubt their motives...

Has anyone mentioned all the legislation that isn't being passed thanks to Brexit ?
One of our parliamentary candidates always made this point - the fastness and unpreparedness of triggering article 50 almost straight away would lead to this and in his view is downright criminal.

In case you wondered if she had fallen into a black hole, no such luck:
DExEUgov minister Suella Feranez married & became Suella Braverman a few weeks ago.

This Twitter thread by Dover ports on her visit, has very caustic btl comments about her knowledge of anything relevant:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Portoff_Dover/status/996029021631778816

But it’s important to properly understand Lega’s position: Leaving the euro is existential to its entire platform, and current leadership
Only a few years ago the Lega’s purpose was the creation of Padania and the split of Italy so am sure they can adjust again.

Making a deal is only the very start. I can’t see a coalition between the Lega and 5* lasting - too many of their supporters are complete opposites.

I remember the biggest culture shock for me years ago when I moved to Italy was the matter of fact way people took the collapse of a Government. There is every possibility that a coalition will propose an exit from the euro but considering the length of time it took to get any kind of electoral reform passed here I can’t even begin to imagine euro exit being imminent....

And to be honest as much as I am a EU supporter (and definitely not a supporter of the Lega or 5*) I do think Italy is not getting the level of European support (I am looking at you UK ) it should get and needs to deal with the migrant and refugee crisis. So pressure from Italy regarding reform in this area wouldn’t be a bad thing IMO.

Anyway considering the 5* bunch of numpties here in Rome are presiding over a capital where rubbish piles up in the street for days, where streets are opening up/collapsing every week and where wild boar are now seen regularly in said streets due to the amount of crap they can find to eat I would like to see them try to organize exiting the single currency.

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
^Minister Mel Stride asked by Anna Mcmorrin MP if the Govt plans to shelve the EU Withdrawal Bill to incorporate into the WAIB:
“I can assure the honourable lady that the EU Withdrawal Bill will indeed in the due course of time come back to this House in the normal manner”^

Hmmm.....

On Ireland and reunification, there are now some Irish commentators speculating that Ireland might not want it - too costly to prop up NI. Which would be ironic.

lisa o'carroll
‏*@lisaocarroll*

BREAKING: Pensioner charged over alleged abusive emails to Dominic Grieve, Anna Soubry, Nicky Morgan, David Lammy, Heidi Allen and Eleanor Smith. Full story shortly

It's not very easy or smart to try and compare different countries political situations (not that it seems to have stopped monolingual Brexiteers).

I actually agree, but I do know that this is what Brexiteers will do. It is perfect propaganda for them.

Plus a Eurosceptic voice from Italy WILL have an impact on the UK somewhere along the line. It will be dressed as a positive thing from our POV, but I can see it going the other way too.

TBH I wanted to get a reflection from people who aren't going to view it through the lens of being an ignorant Brit!