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Brexit

Westministenders: Amber Alert

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2018 19:25

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

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Thread gallery
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bluerunningshoes · 10/05/2018 08:18

problem with medicines (authorised centrally via eu agency or not) is, as with everything, that they are not, or only partially, manufactured in the uk.
so no import agreements/tariffs/border hold ups will have a great effect on medicines as well.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 10/05/2018 08:18

The Brexiteers' Customs Plan Would Hurt 145,000 UK Companies, Ministers Have Been Told
Boris Johnson called Theresa May's customs solution "crazy", but a new government analysis warned that his preferred alternative would wipe 1.8% off GDP in the long run.

www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/the-brexiteers-customs-plan-would-hurt-145000-uk-companies

lonelyplanetmum · 10/05/2018 08:24

Yes Mother. There are also dress and Jury rehearsals for the semis and the final. I've muttered about attending for years! Thought I'd better do it quickly before there is visa hassle etc.

We don't actually have tickets for the final (just the semis and rehearsal).There's a huge screen to sit and watch the final in a square too though!

borntobequiet · 10/05/2018 08:24

I was surprised at the BBC broadcasting that as well, on anything other than Farming Today (which I have praised on these boards before).
Lonely! Lisbon! Lucky you! Not bothered about Eurovision at all, just Lisbon

Motheroffourdragons · 10/05/2018 08:32

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

woman11017 · 10/05/2018 10:23

So......

Westministenders: Amber Alert
DGRossetti · 10/05/2018 10:26

Seriously? So is that all EU derived meds on the list? Surely not?

Since June 2016, a lot of medicines have become much more expensive to produce (license fees paid in advance in dollars, companies being paid by NHS in sterling. Go figure).

I know because one of mine disappeared last year. (I'm pursuing that with the Secretary of State for health via my MP).

In theory there is supposed to be a mechanism so when one company (for whatever reason) stops making a medicine, the NHS can make arrangements for an alternative source to be found.

Currently that's broken, as the agency involved has just shrugged it's shoulders and said "yeah, we knew your medicine was off the market, What do you want us to do about it ??"

My consultant has dropped me onto a different - less preferred - medication. Last consult showed it seems to be doing the trick. Of course that might disappear too.

(In my case, the medicines are still being made. But not for a UK market anymore.)

To be fair, the manufacturer was upfront about why they stopped making the medicine - it simply wasn't profitable anymore.

Now that's a much more subtle and corrosive effect of the hammering sterling took 2 years ago. You have to wonder what else it's left unstable and rotten in it's wake.

Obviously no point mentioning any of this to Brexiteers. If they're happy to see (other people) worse off on the altar of Brexit, what's a few premature deaths ? Especially if it's the "right" sort of person ...

mrsreynolds · 10/05/2018 10:54

I haven't seem the list yet tbh but I know that the pharmacy rep has one

DGRossetti · 10/05/2018 11:00

Well I know one medicine for sure ... (looks at Thea)

GaspodeWonderCat · 10/05/2018 12:15

Leadsom refuses to deny reports key Brexit bill being delayed until autumn to avoid Commons defeat
In business questions Valerie Vaz, the shadow leader of the Commons, asked when the EU withdrawal bill would come back to the Commons. And she asked about reports that the government is planning to delay bringing back the trade bill and the customs bill until the autumn because ministers are worried about losing votes on the customs union.

She did not get much in the way of answers. Andrea Leadsom, the Commons leader, said the EU withdrawal bill would be coming back to the Commons, but she did not say when. And she claimed that there was “no hold up” with other legislation like the trade bill or the customs bill. www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/may/10/brexit-theresa-may-under-pressure-to-extend-transition-to-resolve-customs-dilemma-politics-live at 11:34.

So if the trade and customs bill does not get debated till autumn, then no time to let House of Commons to amend/debate or HoL to do same, so trade deal is whatever offered by Europe (agreed by E27 parliaments) and take it or leave it? Cliff edge (hard Brexit) but Maybot not defeated and continues on ... that must be the cunning plan ... whatever happens not her fault but the nasty Europeans. Blame them for food riots/delays/bad weather ...

BigChocFrenzy · 10/05/2018 12:26

lonely Enjoy Eurovision & Lisbon Smile

BigChocFrenzy · 10/05/2018 12:29

Is a spiteful/ frit UK govt going NC with the RoI gov?

Since the GFA, the UK & RoI leaders have always talked & phoned frequently
BUT
This has stopped …

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/varadkar-has-not-been-in-touch-with-may-in-six-weeks-36892208.html

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and British Prime Minister Theresa May have had no contact in six weeks despite impasses in Brexit and the re-establishment of the Northern Ireland Assembly.

Also, Gove twice snubbed meeting RoI Agricuture Minister

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/agri-business/eu/gove-snubs-brexit-meeting-with-creed-for-a-second-time-36888260.html

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2018 12:30

Seriously jealous lonely. I LOVE Eurovision.

Peston on the latest Johnson Gaff:

Boris has been Boris again, to use the prime minister's indulgent phrase.

In the Commons yesterday, the foreign secretary harpooned the former defence secretary Sir Michael Fallon - and in the process he both broke the convention that ministers do not reveal cabinet conversations, and he traduced a Tory colleague.

I am told he has written a letter of apology to Sir Michael.

When Johnson took questions on President Trump's unilateral decision to pull out of the international deal to constrain Iran's future nuclear capability, the so called JCPOA, the former defence secretary Sir Michael Fallon said this:

"Is not the president right in his analysis of this rather flimsy agreement, which should never have been called comprehensive, in that it does not include missiles and that, far from constraining Iranian behaviour, it has enabled the regime to use its new financial freedom to interfere in Syria, in Iraq, and above all in Yemen, and to sponsor further Houthi attack on our friends in Saudi Arabia?"

Johnson reply was sharp and dismissive: "I do not recall him making those points when he was serving so well as Secretary of State for Defence when the deal was done, and I disagree with him".

Fallon's friends were shocked by Johnson's statement. They say

1) that Fallon has been critical of the limitations of the JCPOA for a considerable time;

2) that Johnson seems to have broken the convention that cabinet conversations are not aired in public;

3) that Johnson was not in the Cabinet when the JCPOA was agreed, so he could not know what Fallon said at the time;

4) you don't put down colleagues like that.

I am told Fallon - who resigned from the cabinet in November after conceding his previous conduct with women had not matched standards expected of the armed forces he represents - was pretty upset. And in the end Johnson conceded and has written a letter of apology.

But Johnson has done himself no favours among unaffiliated Tory MPs who might have considered voting for him in a future leadership election.

12.22 Addendum. Johnson’s aide is insisting his boss has not written Fallon a letter of apology, though they have spoken. I am somewhat astonished given what my sources told me. But there you are.

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RedToothBrush · 10/05/2018 12:41

Robert Peston @ peston
The @BorisJohnson row with Michael Fallon just got juicier. Johnson apologized to him in a text and said he would also tweet an apology. He hasn’t tweeted.

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BigChocFrenzy · 10/05/2018 12:43

The DUP might consider using its current power in Westminster to push for a border referedum while they can still win it

  • because under the GFA, there couldn‘t then be another poll for 7 years

BUT
Faced with a hard Brexit, a majority for^ a United Ireland may even exist already^

http://www.progressivepulse.org/brexit/will-sabre-rattling-towards-ireland-work

Westministenders: Amber Alert
RedToothBrush · 10/05/2018 12:47

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (+1)
LAB: 38% (-)
LDEM: 9% (+2)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
GRN: 2% (-1)

via @YouGov, 08 - 09 May
Chgs. w/ 01 May

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BigChocFrenzy · 10/05/2018 12:47

A real indicator of May's impotence and the govt shambles is this lack of Cabinet responsibility,
normally a prerequisite for govt

The fact that Bojo hasn't been sacked, when he would have been sacked 10 times over in normal times

  • or never appointed Foreign Sec in the first place - is an astonishing indictment
RedToothBrush · 10/05/2018 13:10

Anyone in need of a bit of light relief?

From ThePoke: Vladimir Putin The BeeGees Remix

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GlassOfPort · 10/05/2018 13:35

I don't think this has been posted already

blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/05/08/eu-professional-migration-to-the-uk-is-down-26-per-cent/

A very balanced, but nonetheless worrying account, of the impact of the referendum on the recruitment of EU professionals.

It does much what we see in my workplace where we seem to be receiving less and less applications from EU citizens

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2018 13:44

Well this really is an interesting one:

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/95065/furious-tory-mps-accuse-ministers-abuse
Furious Tory MPs accuse ministers of 'abuse of power' after Labour boundary bill is blocked
Conservative backbenchers have accused their own government of an "undemocratic" outrage after a bill that won support from both sides of the House of Commons was blocked by ministers.

This relates to the Boundary Commission Report that the HoC should be reduced from 650 seats to 600. The Tories have a manifesto pledge to do so.

But there are several issues here:

  1. its regarded as gerrymandering by the opposition
  2. backbenchers fear it would give government too much power as too many MPs would have ministerial role and thus obliged to follow executive directives rather than encourage parliamentary debate
  3. mps would be asked to vote themselves out of jobs
  4. the balance of seats in NI and the DUP position / influence

So for the government to actively block a cross party move to kill a Tory Party manifesto pledge of this kind, is an 'interesting' move.

Quite how May intends to get any changes through is baffling. The thing is she also clearly doesn't want to be seen to be defeated on the issue - particularly via a Labour amendment - either.

Its a fudge to maintain the status quo without being seen to maintain the status quo.

Which makes it completely in keeping with May's premiership where we run to stand still without going anywhere but spend a long of time, effort and energy to do precisely nothing whilst pretending we are headless chickens.

Its like a Friday afternoon in summer where you've got tonnes of work to do but you just can't be arsed as its difficult and you know if you start it you'll get sucked into it, so you use up lots of energy huffing and puffing to look like you are working hard, but the reality is, that as soon as it hits one second past five you'll be half way down the corridor on your way home.

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RedToothBrush · 10/05/2018 14:00

www.theneweuropean.co.uktop-stories/michael-fabricant-u-turns-on-brexit-and-the-eurovision-song-contest-1-5512196?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social_Icon&utm_campaign=in_article_social_icons
Brexit should mean Britain also leaves the Eurovision Song Contest, a Brexiteer today told the Commons.

Now they really can get fucked.

Australia? Israel? Azerbaijan?
Those well known non EU European countries.

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Arborea · 10/05/2018 14:14

A nice piece from the Irish Times summarising the DUP's dilemma: www.irishtimes.com/opinion/dup-faces-heavy-responsibility-for-brexit-position-taken-lightly-1.3489256

I have also written (again) to my Labour MP to urge him to have the courage of his convictions and come out in favour of continued SM and CU membership.

I also asked him how he's getting on with the Secret Barrister's book thesecretbarrister.com/ All MPs have been given a free copy, crowdfunded by the Criminal Bar Association. Although I'm not a criminal lawyer I am deeply worried by the effect of continuing cuts to the justice system, so I thought I'd remind my MP that his party needs to consider the issues, and pledge to properly invest in it.

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2018 14:18

Press Association @ pa
#Breaking Communities Secretary James Brokenshire has announced he is sending commissioners to take over the governance and strategic financial management of Northamptonshire County Council

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DGRossetti · 10/05/2018 14:19

www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/10/uk_eu_spying_privacy_brexit/

There is no doubt that the UK's surveillance regimes will come under scrutiny in negotiations on continued data flows with Europe after Brexit, and the government needs to start preparing for that now, MPs have been told.

The British government has been repeatedly warned that gaining an adequacy decision from the EU will not be simple – or fast – and today data protection, law and policy experts emphasised this to members of the Exiting the European Union Committee.

James Mullock, a partner at law firm Bird&Bird, said that decisions can take about two years to go through – which, if the formal negotiations start on the official Brexit date, March 29, 2019 – could mean it would go four months beyond the transition period, which is due to end on December 31, 2020.

(contd)

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