Westministenders: Amber Alert

[RedToothBrush]

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

Jesus Christ.

Guinness and Coca Cola who have BOTH had newspaper articles that looked at their supply chain in NI and Ireland and the impact of Brexit last year.

m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/news/cocacola-maps-out-impact-of-brexit-on-allisland-ops-35743409.html
Coca-Cola 'maps out' impact of Brexit on all-island ops
Lisburn plant sends drinks around Ireland

Here's one dated 23rd May 2017.

Also, what EXACTLY did they think the Japanese carmakers were talking about when they had meetings with senior government ministers? What EXACTLY did Greg Hands say to them and reassure them about if it wasn't the supply chain (and customs union / single market?)

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/27/new-nissan-super-plant-hopes-for-tariff-free-eu-access
'No cheque book' involved in Nissan pledge, says minister
Business secretary says carmaker was not offered compensation to keep investing in Britain after accusations of sweetheart deal

This is dated 28th October 2016.

To at this point, ask business to suddenly spell out their supply chains?

What do you think all these businesses have been lobbying about for the last 23 months? The British Bloody Weather?!!!

I'm speechless. The whole lot of them should resign over this. Every last MP who does not understand the customs union and single market.

The worst thing?

I'm not even fucking surprised. To say they are out of touch is one thing. To not pick up a single newspaper saying any of this or to listen to senior international diplomats and business is inexcusable.

What do they think the job of being an MP and government minister actually is? What the fuck DO they do all day? Sit playing Candy Crush until its home time?

Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico
This is a fundamental point. Brexit isn't mainly about us as individuals. It's about the future of our country & its contribution to the world & world history over the long term - including those not yet borne & those not in the UK. Your next 10 years are irrelevant.

So, the next decade of people's lives are meaningless chaff to the True BeLeavers in return for .

Well, that's convinced me - where do I sign up?

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/like-a-jenga-tower-brexits-collapse-is-a-question-of-when-not-if
Like a Jenga tower, Brexit’s collapse is a question of when, not if
And it could be soon

Your next 10 years are irrelevant.

Says a healthy middle aged married man, with two older kids, a house, well established career and reputation and no doubt a good pension.

Meanwhile if you are young, haven't got a house, struggling in anyway what so ever, have health issues - yeah the next ten years don't mean shit.

Those ten years for OTHER PEOPLE are not for YOU to give away Andrew Lilico.

Says a healthy middle aged married man, with two older kids, a house, well established career and reputation and no doubt a good pension
Economics is gendered above all else.

@DavidLammy
I have just received an email from Jay, who is no longer stateless and has become a British citizen today. I think there is something in my eye.
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/windrush-immigrant-son-uk-citizenship-passport-granted-jay-a8346696.html

This young British man had been 'in care', was made 'stateless' and threatened with deportation to a country he had never visited. Guess what colour his skin is. god help the hundreds of 'cared for' children with these in charge of passports and citizenship.

Harry Cole @ mrharrycole
Getting tired of this idea that the EU have “killed off” both customs options. One drip of poison to @pmdfoster does not mark an end of formal negotiations. More like an opening salvo. There’s still months to go on this. Wish pundits would stop doing the Commission’s dirty work.

Peter Foster @ PMDFoster
So @MrHarryCole is tired of idea that both UK customs options are 'killed off' - so this is a good moment to see where we are.

1/Thread

As I reported (accurately) the EU subjected the UK's two positions to a "forensic annihilation" - not quite the same as "killing them off" - more pulling them apart. Let's look at each in turn, and where they are now /2

t.co/bbbITRInUF just pulled them apart.

First 'MaxFac'

That option is still on the table. What the EU made clear is WHY it will not sort out the Irish Border question.

For it to work, the EU would need to agree to UK request to exempt 80% of business on that border - it won't. /3

I did a long thread on why MaxFac wont fix the Irish Q. And why EU and Dublin won't yield on this - see

t.co/G2ZvdwhWvN

But to be clear, this is NOT the same "killing off" off the idea. /4

The UK can indeed have 'MaxFac', a Canada-style FTA and, likely, a zero-tariff deal on goods.

BUT that means it will also have:

- a goods border in the Irish Sea
- costly levels of friction/rules of origin issues etc
- hit to jobs and investment.

Choices, choices. /5

Now, what about the 'New Customs Partnership'?

This Mrs May's preferred idea of acting as a customs agent for EU, collecting tariffs on goods going into EU and UK companies getting to claim a rebate. HMRC hates, business doesn't believe in it, but it could solve border Q /6

Last August the EU called this 'magical thinking' and back at the 'forensic annihilation meeting they were similarly scathing.

But they did not, as @MrHarryCole says, kill it off. Instead they posed 5 questions to the UK side. I can now reveal what these were /7

1) how the UK could legally act as customs agent for the EU?

2) how the rebate mechanism would actually work?

3) how VAT and excise duties would be handled?

Continued... /8

4) how the model would deal with ‘rules of origin’ questions and

5) if the EU would have to mirror the expensive UK scheme at its own ports?

Interestingly, having rubbished this as "magical thinking" it now suddenly seems less "magical" /9

Now @campaignforleo tells Irish parliament it might be workable.

And as @IanWishart reports this morning, the EU are making similar noises. /10

t.co/LbfL6PpkbC

Why? Well as @nick_gutteridge and my colleague @asabenn have mooted, perhaps its because EU now realises that they need to help out Mrs May.

Their assumption Brexiteers would fold - as they did on bill, citizens etc - now seems misplaced. /11

t.co/7VzzFrEFVT

Whitehall officials reckon they can answer these 'five questions' - at least technically.

Tho politically, given levels of alignment required to fix Irish border question, it looks pretty shaky tbh. Business also doesn't believe in it. /12

That said, the EU recognising that it could work, or at least agreeing to entertain its magical properties, might be the basis for short term fix - while everyone works on their tech solutions.

Of course the Irish backstop remains - but what if if cd somehow recognise NCP? /13

So in short, UK options are not dead, they are just not going to happen any time soon - 2023 at best case - and they won't deliver a cake n eat it Brexit.

The choices are there. The UK just needs to accept they need to be made on a realistic basis. There are no unicorns. 14/ENDS

Choices no one wants to admit... we are throwing ourselves over the cliff to avoid facing up to all, whilst screaming 'you pushed me' at a completely innocent and oblivious by stander who is trying to talk us out of jumping.

Harry Cole thinks we have "months to go"? 🤦🏻‍♀️

Not to complete the negotiations we don't.
Everything has to be agreed by latest 1 October, to give time for 38 national & regional parliaments to discuss and approve.

We may even have only about 7 weeks:
the European Council meeting on 28/29 June may stop trade talks, if they think the UK has no solution for a frictionless NI border

• they'll want to give EU businesses & organisations - those who have not yet fully prepped - the clear warning that the UK will be a 3rd country from 30 March 2019, to give them maximum implementation time.

Unlike the UK govt, the EU Commission has been sending "Notices to Stakeholders" over the last year, covering in detail over 60 sectors.
So most EU businesses will be well on their planning / implementation already

10 years isn't just a big deal for the young:

For those of us over 60, it is probably our remaining "fit" time, when we have the health & energy to organise everything for our final years / dotage.

We may not live to see the "sunny uplands" - if they arrive for anyone except the already wealthy

Keep your eyes on YouGov.

Just completed their most in depth Brexit based survey yet. Be curious to know who funded it, or who YouGov hope to flog the results to.

Bear in mind that sometimes the closest option to "Really could not give a shit" is "Don't know". Also (as with the question on my view of the Criminal Justice system) a simple .... slider just cannot capture the complexities of my views.

(Having met with people from YouGov, I also know that they are sometimes constrained by the answers their clients have limited the survey to - usually against advice).

I never seem to get YouGov surveys relating to Brexit (or even Scottish politics) any more.

Maybe because the first few, I was extremely very emphatic in my views - and the unlikelihood of my views changing

I always make a point of answering the "extra" questions as they sometimes sneak political questions in there.

It may have been triggered by a signpost question ... asking what nationalities I hold (UK, EU, Commonwealth or Other) ?

One question was about identity ... English, British and European.

I identify as all three equally ....

One question was about identity ... English, British and European

I'd put British, European then English. In that order. I bet that's odd.

I would put European way ahead, then British, then English

You see, I no longer identify as British (even though, pedantically geographically I always will be - but British at the moment actually means UK-ish ) but am vehemently Scottish and European

....This is a a major change from 38 years ago, when I was spending a year as part of my degree working as an assistante in France and I would have vehement discussions with my French friends and colleagues, stating that I was brittannique d'abord, puis ecossaise et europeene

Ethnically, I am "Commonwealth"

I WANT to say European first. But I don't feel I can cos I am mono linguistic and haven't lived in Europe (though would love to be able to do both). I feel at home in Europe. I am just shit at languages and don't feel I'm qualified to call myself European for this reason!

I'm still staggered that the govt is only now asking business about their supply chains
(assuming Bloomberg is correct)
A much worse state of play than I had feared

This is one of the actions that should have been taken before inviting A50 - and the govt should have waited for the responses from all the main UK sectors.

Absolutely no assessments or planning before starting the most far-reaching actions affecting the UK economy, agencies, infrastructure post-WW2

It's like the main breadwinner giving notice to quit their job, with no plans to find another job, or even what sort of job they want, or salary they can expect,
while they have the commitments of a large mortgage and their promise to support several dependent DC, elderly parents and disabled family members.

Totally irresponsible
We can only hope they realise the misery of what no deal means for ordinary people for the next 10 years or soand instead suddenly beg for EEA / EFTA

Me too red though it misses Irish in may case

Sorry cross posted, I meant to the identity order

Feeling European is a demos, an emotional attachment and loyalty.
It doesn't require knowing another European language, or having lived in another European country

There are many monolingual Europeans - who have forgotten their school English / French / German
They may be mostly older & less educated wc, but cam feel just as proud of the EU ideals and achievements

The continent suffered more from invasions and conquest in the 20th century, so for many citizens there,

it is not just about a trading bloc - as it is for many in the UK - but about avoiding the horror of European conflict described to them by parents & grandparents, recorded in their museums, art, literature.

If you share the ideals, then proudly call yourself European.

Uh Oh, May already has her alibi …

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/like-a-jenga-tower-brexits-collapse-is-a-question-of-when-not-if

Most people do not realise that the prime minister has already warned us of the possible consequences of Brexit.

One year ago she stood outside 10 Downing Street and made them explicit.

“If we don’t get the negotiation right, your economic security and prosperity will be put at risk and the opportunities you seek for your families will simply not happen,” she said.
“If we do not stand up and get this negotiation right, we risk the secure and well-paid jobs we want for our children and our children’s children too.”

One year later, she cannot even agree a negotiating position with her own cabinet.
…
The tower of Brexit is being simultaneously built and razed.
It places too much weight on feeble foundations and surrenders too many bricks from different angles.
It cannot satisfy the demands of reality because it was only ever designed to exist in the imagination.
The tower will collapse

One question was about identity ... English, British and European

It was a yes/no question for each. So you could identify as English only, English and British .... etc. (You could also identify as none of them - so presumably that would be for citizens of nowhere ?)

However (underscoring how shit any polling can be ...) there's absolutely nothing to define the key word in all of this ... identify.

What is it to "identify" anyway ?

For myself, the concept of "identifying" as European is based on the inescapable fact that the British Isles can be nothing other than part of the continent of Europe, and as such most of my interactions with people who are not native Britons is with "Europeans". Thus my "identifying" with them.

However, some peoples view of "identity" might be formed on wearing union jack underwear. Or knowing a national anthem. Or what team you support in international tiddlywinks. Or what food you like. Or displaying certain types of behaviour (or refraining from others).

So with such a - frankly shit - question, it's hard to see what hidden insights YouGov will glean from a random sample ...

Most people do not realise that the prime minister has already warned us of the possible consequences of Brexit

Well the really thick ones perhaps ?

For myself I took If we don’t get the negotiation right, your economic security and prosperity will be put at risk and the opportunities you seek for your families will simply not happen

as the threat it was meant as. And I responded (and will continue to respond) accordingly.

No government should ever govern by threat ... and when they do totalitarianism is round the corner.

Fuck you Theresa. I ain't gonna play Sun City.

I am European.

I have two EU flags which have been got out of the cupboard this week.

They will be flown next March 29th/30th. With pride and with sadness.

I am European

Because I live on the continent of Europe

I happen to be of half English and half Irish descent (With a bit of French mixed in)

I cannot understand those for whom this is hard to grasp

But it's all about the feelz now

Geographical, societal or economic facts?

Pah!

The whole proposition of identifying with a random geographical area and culture seems daft to me. Especiallly these days of tinternet and planes.

One question was about identity ... English, British and European
Like asking dogs which trees they like to relieve themselves on.