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Brexit

Westministenders: Amber Alert

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2018 19:25

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

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Thread gallery
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RedToothBrush · 10/05/2018 14:28

I saw this tweet earlier today. It speaks volumes in so many ways:

Andrew Keogh @ CrimeLawLine
Sir Geoffrey Vos, the Chancellor of the High Court, has suggested a future law could require people to carry a mobile phone that was permanently switched on in order to make it easier to track and catch criminals.
“As society seems to accept more and more surveillance, I wonder how radical the change I have mentioned will seem to the population in 10, 15 or 20 years' time,” he said in a Law Society lecture. (we published this on our timeline yesterday)

That's just technologically dumb when you have this story about what is apparently going on in China:

motherboard.vice.com/amp/en_us/article/8xkymg/china-brain-wave-hats-helmets-productivity?__twitter_impression=true
China Claims It's Scanning Workers' Brainwaves to Increase Efficiency and Profits
Hangzhou Zhongheng Electric told a local news outlet that it’s reading production line workers’ emotions through sensors in their hats.

Pre-crime and Thought Crime and the Borg become reality.

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RedToothBrush · 10/05/2018 14:30

Ian Dunt @ iandunt
We said it at the time and it remains true now: the greatest obstacle to Brexit is the quality of the people advocating for it.

Hello Daniel Hannan.

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mrsreynolds · 10/05/2018 14:30

For the first time since 2003 child deaths under 1 are rising

Drs are seeing cases of scurvy

Scurvy!!!!

BigChocFrenzy · 10/05/2018 14:30

The Standard with yet more warnings about food bills with a hard Brexit - hopefully the message will eventually spread

Brexit news latest < not really ! > Food bills 'will rise dramatically if Government fails to secure free trade deal with EU

They don't really explain that a ports logjam would mean actual food shortages on the shelves, not just big price rises

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-food-bills-will-rise-dramatically-if-government-fails-to-secure-free-trade-deal-a3835071.html

In a bleak assessment of the impact of Britain’s departure from the bloc, they [HoL peers] suggested grocery costs would rise, businesses could go bust and round year supplies put at risk.

Customers could be left in a two-tier system that means the better off buy more expensive, British goods while those who are poorer are left with lower-standard cheap imports.
< there will be fewer of the better off, if the economy crashes and under / unemployment spikes >

BigChocFrenzy · 10/05/2018 14:51

Why many DUP religious nutters want Brexit at any cost and got into the money shenanigans for the referendum …
The late Rev Ian Paisley who founded the DUP wildly opposed even the Common Market bacjk in Ref 1 … on religious grounds:

in 1975:
“I have found in this Common Market struggle the intense hatred of pro-Marketeers for the true Protestantism of God’s WordHmm

If you stand up and say, for religious reasons, Hmm you are against the Common Market, then you are branded as a bigot.
You are branded as an extremist. . . .

And I want to tell you that we are moving into a time of religious persecution, when these nations of Europe are going to insist on one church;
one church for Europe and that church will be the Roman Catholic Church.“ Grin < batshit alarm >

DGRossetti · 10/05/2018 14:55

For the first time since 2003 child deaths under 1 are rising

Suffer little children ?

Of course, on other threads, Brexiteers have already stated they don't care if people are worse off as a result of Brexit. Presumably that extends to losing children as well as money ?

BigChocFrenzy · 10/05/2018 15:03

http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/exclusive-northern-ireland-s-brexit-fund-1-5511516

Northern Ireland might be about to bear the brunt of Brexit but new government figures suggest that the region will be woefully unprepared for it.

The New European has learned that of the £3 billion set aside for the monumental task of unwinding the UK’s decades-long EU membership, just £15.2 million – 0.5% of the total – will be assigned to the region by March 2019, at which point it could be left policing a hard border.

< maybe use that 1bn bung - or is it already earmarked for DUP favourites ? >

The £3 billion was announced in Philip Hammond’s budget in November to help public bodies prepare for all possible outcomes of the Brexit negotiations – including a ‘no deal’ scenario.
It is to be allocated over two years, meaning half of the money will only come after March 2019, when the UK will leave the EU.

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2018 15:14

Drs are seeing cases of scurvy

Don't forget the rickets
www.theguardian.com/society/2017/dec/23/poorer-children-disproportionately-need-hospital-treatment

Don't worry though. Drs will be seeing less cases soon. Mainly because there will be too few doctors to see patients but thats beside the point...

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DGRossetti · 10/05/2018 15:15

That Stalin quote is waiting in the wings ....

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2018 15:19

Hey what about the promises of bread and work. Don't forget them.

Disaster Capitalism plus bread and work.

shudders

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RedToothBrush · 10/05/2018 15:29

Damien Collins @ damiencollins
Today @CommonsCMS have issued formal summonses to Alexander Nix and Dominic Cummings to give evidence to the Committee as part of our inquiry into fake news and disinformation

Oooooh.

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mrsreynolds · 10/05/2018 15:32

Sigh

I foresee more arguments with dh about prepping for this clusterfuck

DGRossetti · 10/05/2018 15:38

Eugenics in the age of Facebook.

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2018 15:46

Should I be relieved or worried that my house is not selling?

Should we wait for the Great House Price Collapse of 2019, when no one has a job and can't afford food and the mass slums out of fly tipped rubbish start to appear?

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mrsreynolds · 10/05/2018 15:57

a large part of me wants to sell up and run the fuck away

Dh just will not see what's happening. He only reads his parents daily heil if we go up there...😩

DGRossetti · 10/05/2018 16:00

Should I be relieved or worried that my house is not selling?

An exodus of EU nationals - leaving their homes to sell, or empty looking for tenants - might be just what the housing crisis needs to fix itself.

Of course this is the doomsday scenario for "housebuilders", as it'll see the value of their stock decline. In fact things might be so serious that they need to pressurise government into fixing the market (again). Maybe some sort of scheme to gift younger first time buyers a lump sum, so as to keep house price inflation going ? Watch out for that one .....

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2018 16:26

Maybe some sort of scheme to gift younger first time buyers a lump sum, so as to keep house price inflation going ? Watch out for that one .....

I saw talk on twitter for £10,000 to go to first time buyers just yesterday. No idea who said it. Just saw it and thought exactly that.

We've just had a spat of £500,000 house building near us. They are now just about the houses that have been on rightmove longest. None have sold. Not one. Not at all surprised. Over priced and the market is flooded with houses in that price bracket. Still laughing that they are unsold. I'm wetting myself at the guy who has just put six houses priced over a million down the road... that's going to be a local scandal.

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DGRossetti · 10/05/2018 16:39

I saw talk on twitter for £10,000 to go to first time buyers just yesterday. No idea who said it. Just saw it and thought exactly that.

www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/a-new-generational-contract-the-final-report-of-the-intergenerational-commission/

below is the executive summary

The Intergenerational Commission was convened by the Resolution Foundation to explore questions of intergenerational fairness that have risen up the national agenda.

This report contains the Commission’s conclusions, drawing on a deep and wide-ranging examination of the experiences and prospects of different generations in Britain.

It provides a comprehensive analysis of the intergenerational challenges the country faces and sets out a policy programme to tackle them.

Policy recommendations
Jobs and pay – progress in work

Introduce a £1 billion ‘Better Jobs Deal’ – an active labour market programme offering practical support and funding for younger workers most affected by the financial crisis to take up opportunities to move jobs, change region for work, or train to progress.

Boost pay progression via new sector deals in lower-paying sectors as part of the industrial strategy, and provide new guidance on pay review processes within businesses to improve transparency.

Improve security for self-employed, atypical and the lowest-paid workers via extended statutory rights and greater certainty around working hours.

Enhance the rights of unions to speak to employees in their workplace and encourage innovation in models of worker organising, including reduced union membership rates for the young and better use of technology.

Ensure that apprenticeships are underpinned by rigorous regulation of quality; engage with employers flexibly on T Levels to ensure that the targeted volume of work placements can be delivered; and maintain high-quality specialist technical provision that does not fit neatly within these routes.

Ensure lifelong learning options are available to lower-qualified young people who will not benefit from post-16 technical reforms but who are struggling in today’s labour market.

Boost the funding of technical education provision and underpin the ‘Better Jobs Deal’ by cancelling 1p of the corporation tax cut planned for 2020.

Houses – renovating the market

Introduce indeterminate tenancies as the sole form of private rental contract available in England and Wales, following Scotland’s lead.

Introduce light-touch rent stabilisation that limits rent rises to CPI inflation for set three-year periods.

Establish a housing tribunal system which has powers to adjudicate on possession applications and challenges to rent rises.

Bring England into line with the rest of the UK by requiring landlords to register with their local authority.

Revisit housing benefit rules to improve support for younger families on low-to-middle incomes.

Limit future Help to Buy equity loans to those with an annual household income of less than £60,000 a year.

Replace council tax with a progressive property tax – including a tax-free allowance and multiple tax bands – that is related to up-to-date values.

Halve stamp duty so it supports property purchases by first-time buyers and movers and retain a higher tax rate on the purchase of additional properties.

Give city and city-region mayors the authority to limit residential property purchases in housing hot- spots to those resident in the UK.

Introduce a time-limited cut to capital gains tax for owners of additional properties selling to first- time buyers.

Create a unit of highly skilled planners in central government to support local authorities in areas of high housing need, and with a full five-year land supply, to deliver high-quality developments.

Homes England should support five local authorities that are prepared to pilot community land auctions by 2020.

Support the development of the build-to-rent sector by exempting from the stamp duty surcharge on additional properties any institutional investors that either construct build-to-rent properties or buy them within five years of construction.

Reform the viability process to ensure that builders deliver on their up front affordable homes commitments except in exceptional circumstances.

Allow local authorities to raise additional money to build new homes via a property tax building precept and new borrowing flexibilities.

Pensions – saving for tomorrow

Maintain the value of the new State Pension relative to earnings at a slightly higher level than the current position, funded by freezing ‘protected payments’

To maintain fairness between generations, continue to link the State Pension age to longevity, aiming to provide a broadly consistent share of adult life in retirement on average to each cohort.

Develop a system that places requirements on firms and individuals contracting self-employed people to make contributions to their pensions, and provide default routes via which the self- employed can save into pensions.

Lower the auto-enrolment threshold to the equivalent of working 15 hours per week on the National Living Wage – currently just over £6,000 a year.

Narrow the gap between minimum employee and employer auto-enrolment pension contribution over time.

Support further progress on occupational pension saving among low- and middle-earners during a period of rising minimum pension contributions by providing a flat rate of income tax relief; and exempting employee pension contributions from employee National Insurance, funded by capping tax-relieved lump sums drawn at retirement to £40,000.

Promote larger pensions schemes better able to share risk among savers, while laying the path for long-term development of ‘collective defined contribution’ schemes.

Reform pension freedoms by introducing a default product providing a guaranteed income in later life, and stimulate the market in retirement income products.

The state – delivering for all generations

Use £2.3 billion raised from a new progressive property tax to address gaps in public social care funding. Alongside this, introduce user charges on assets so wealthier individuals contribute towards their social care costs in England. However, set the asset floors and cost caps such that no more than a quarter of assets can be depleted.

As one element of a new ‘NHS levy’, charge employee and self-employed National Insurance contributions on the earnings of workers over the State Pension age, raising £0.9 billion in 2020.

As the second element of a new ‘NHS levy’, place a charge that mirrors employee National Insurance contributions on private occupational pension income, but initially at half the main rate and with a higher starting threshold.

Lift the benefits freeze a year early, uprating working-age benefits in line with inflation in April 2019, at a cost of £1.7 billion.

Maintain the commitment to increase public investment in infrastructure while sustainably reducing debt over the medium term.

Abolish inheritance tax and replace it with a lifetime receipts tax with lower rates and fewer exemptions. This should be levied on recipients, with a tax-free allowance to encourage broadly shared inheritances.

Introduce a ‘citizen’s inheritance’ – an asset endowment to all young adults who entered the labour market during the financial crisis and since – to support skills, entrepreneurship, housing and pension saving.

Engender engagement in the democratic process for each successive cohort by lowering the voting age and automatically registering young adults attending school, college and university to vote

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2018 16:50

Limit future Help to Buy equity loans to those with an annual household income of less than £60,000 a year.

Tbh, I agree with this. I also think that Help to Buy should not be allowed on properties up to £600,000. (Like wtf?!). Unlike in England its capped at £300,000 in Wales.

Help to Buy tends to distort the market most at the top of incomes and the higher the price of the home.

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DGRossetti · 10/05/2018 16:53

www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/10/galileo_exiting_the_european_union_committee/

As the imagined strains of Sonny and Cher’s hit "I Got You, Babe"* died down, the UK Parliament’s Exiting the European Union Committee spent a chunk of yesterday morning asking the UK space industry the same old questions.

Patrick Norris of UK Space, Colin Paynter of Airbus and Dr Belddyn Bowen of the University of Leicester were on hand as witnesses yesterday to deal with the latest round of enquiries from UK politicos regarding the potential loss of Galileo work and potential home-grown alternatives.

(contd)

DGRossetti · 10/05/2018 16:56

Help to Buy tends to distort the market most at the top of incomes and the higher the price of the home.

You know what the best "help to buy" would be ?

If there were actually some fucking houses that could be bought.

If we gave every citizen in the UK a million pounds, there'd still be some people who could not afford a home.

People who suggest any solution by tinkering with "help to buy" or any other soundbite attempt to artificially game the market either hasn't thought it through, has drunk the kool aid, or has absolutely no desire to see the housing "crisis" end anytime soon.

DGRossetti · 10/05/2018 16:57

Was the post WW1 slogan

"loans fit for heroes" ?

RedToothBrush · 10/05/2018 18:53

If there were actually some fucking houses that could be bought.

Exactly my point. Small 2 and 3 bed.

Election Data @ election_data
Something remarkable in the YouGov polling from today. These are figures for those in social grade C2DE (January numbers in brackets):
CON 43% (35% in January)
LAB 40% (46%)
LD 7% (6%)
UKIP 3% (7%)
GRN 2% (2%)
Seven-point swing to the Tories from Labour since January

These are the figures for Con-Lab performance amongst C2DEs since 1997
1997 Lab 55, Con 24
2001 Lab 52, Con 27
2005 Lab 44, Con 29
2010 Lab 35, Con 34
2015 Lab 36, Con 30
2017 Lab 44, Con 42
Source: Ipsos-Mori How Britain Voted series

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mrsreynolds · 10/05/2018 20:10

But...but....why?....how?...

woman11017 · 10/05/2018 21:04

But...but....why?....how
Τhe ukips MrsR and their bosses. And Mr Corbyn.

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