Westministenders: Amber Alert

[RedToothBrush]

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

Just to clarify: dh didn't vote Remain because he wanted the UK to break up (even though he voted Yes in the Indyref as he believes in Scotland's right to self-determination and that Westminster can't or won't consider Scotland's needs as the population of England makes the UK constitutional structure fundamentally unbalanced). He voted Remain (as did I) because he believes in the principles of the EU (for all its flaws) and that the world has moved on since the British Empire , that it is good for the UK economy and has broader benefits . In fact, until recently, he was convinced it wouldn't actually happen - and has only recently become more pessimistic because of the lack of common sense emanating from both the WM Government and the official non Opposition . But to paraphrase an old quote, "If you're going to do this damn stupid thing, don't do it in this damn stupid way - or be prepared to accept what (to some) are damn stupid consequences"

I've mentioned on previous Westministenders threads my reluctant feelings of "Hell mend you" towards the rest of the UK: that if England (and it is England, with Wales' support but that is minimal in proportion and the DUP but not NI as a whole ) is going to drag the rest of the UK over the cliff, then a "hard" Brexit will make it obvious that this "Union" is well and truly fucked. Immigrants from FUKD (the Formerly United Kingdom and its Dependancies) will be welcome in an independent Scotland (we acknowledge both the need for immigrants and the benefits they bring )

I do usually manage to suppress those feelings, because I believe that Brexit (both hard and soft) will be toughest on the most vulnerable - and I don't wish ill on them . But maybe an independent Scotland will be able to demonstrate in its success the error of FUKD's ways and hasten Westminster's application to rejoin the EU

On the other hand, I know of people who believed in the EU who were voting Leave "to stick one on that sleekit Nicola Sturgeon" - purely because the SNP were in favour of Remain and they didn't want their vote to be in any way aligned with an Independence supporting party (only peripheral acquaintances and haven't found out since the Referendum how stupid they now feel about the consequence of their Leave votes ).

My No voting friend promised me before the Indyref that if, as I predicted, Scotland's ongoing membership of the EU was at more risk as part of the UK than as an independent party, she would then join me in campaigning for independence. A Labour member until recently , she is incandescently angry at Labour for its Brexit strategy. There is nothing like an angry convert

If Westminster doesn't have the guts to put country (or in this case "state" - as the UK is a state comprising of 3 countries and a province) before party, then it makes me all the more determined to fight for Scotland to have the right to make its own independent away, away from the clusterfuck of Brexit and JRM, IDS, Gove, Fox, Johnson and Farage's wet dreams

Rant over and breeeeaaaathe

How can you spend £12 million on ‘administrative services’ in just 6 months?

I see the Daily Mail is back to its ‘traitors’ diatribe again.

pretty:

1. If leaving the EU causes so many problems, how destructive is the splitting of Scotland and the rest of the UK likely to be? Far more intertwined.
2. This would all take many years, if it happened at all.
3. What will happen if Westminster continue to refuse to allow a referendum?

Surprise!

Yes, we need to get rid of the judges and the House of Lords.

okdok - I will respond this once and not again. As Robin McAlpine of CommonWeal said at a recent talk: don't waste your time on those who don't want to listen or are never going to change their minds. Spend time talking to those who are prepared to listen (like my No voting - now Yes - EU supporting friend and her family).

1. The reason that leaving the EU is so destructive is because WM has unrealistic expectations as to what it can achieve. But if WM can - as it claims - create a "frictionless" border between Ireland and NI, then the same can be achieved between England and Scotland.
   At least in the EU we would be 1 amongst 28 equals - unlike the uneven relationship we currently "enjoy" with England.
   Scotland already has separate legal, education and health systems - and a functioning devolved government (for the moment , until the Withdrawal Bill power grab which will allow WM to assume consent to changes for devolved areas - even if Holyrood explicitly doesn't give consent ).
   It will be harder with the FUKD out of the EU - but given it's going to be tough anyway, what have we got to lose? Which leads nicely on to...

2. At least Scotland produced a White Paper in advance of the Referendum, so that the electorate had an idea of what the vision was. Also, Robin McAlpine (with others) had written a book called "How do you start a new country" - eye-bleedingly boring detail of the sort of things that need to be thought through - the sort of detail (from a slightly different perspective) that WM should have thought about before the EU Referendum, let alone still scrabbling about unable to answer Select Committees looking for answers or assuming that technological solutions will be invented 2 years after the Referendum.

3. Indeed. What happens if Westminster denies another Referendum? The Act of Union was supposed to be a Union of equals. Your question illustrates that it either is or isn't. Westminster can always overrule Scotland - even if every single MP in Scotland supports independence. That was very nearly the case in the 2015 election. Even after the 2017 election, there are still more independence supporting MPs in Scotland than Unionist MPs. Ditto with MSPs.

The thing is, WM can't actually create a frictionless border between the UK and Ireland. So this wouldn't work for Scotland.
Yes, things will already be bad. But that doesn't mean that people will be happy with things being made even worse.
If the UK continues on its current path, I would love to see Scotland find an escape route. Really. But I'm not sure that it's realistically possible. I hope that it will be looked at in a hard headed way, not in an ideological nationalistic kind of way. Was talking to a Scottish nationalist yesterday, who basically said that it didn't matter if people in Scotland had a terrible time for 50 years, as long as Scotland was free. Very like talking to a Brexiteer. So sick of this kind of nationalism.
Genuinely interested in what would happen if WM continued to deny a referendum / independence if there were a successful referendum. Was talking to a French friend about this and apparently the view there is that WM will never allow Scotland to leave the UK.

An example of independence working out fine is Ireland.

Ireland even managed to incorporate the common law legacy of British rule and continues to have a common law system.

Scotland otoh enjoys a hybrid system and this hasn't prevented the smooth integration of England, Wales, NI and Scotland up to now.

Of course within the framework of the EU it is far easier to rub along together, but Ireland and the UK managed to trade with European countries before joining the EEC, enjoyed travel arrangements, residency arrangements, voting, banking, property purchases, etc., and there were many business links.

If Scotland were to become independent I could see a loose economic alignment developing between Ireland (excluding NI) and Scotland. It would make sense across many sectors of the economy of both countries, and it might make sense from a regional EU aid perspective too to have some regional amalgamation. This would all make a heck of a lot more sense if NI were to cut loose from Britain too.

Was talking to a Scottish nationalist yesterday, who basically said that it didn't matter if people in Scotland had a terrible time for 50 years, as long as Scotland was free

That's rather an extreme example of separatist sentiment. A bit of a straw man almost.

There has been a White Paper on the effects of independence, and as Prettybird mentions, at least one book. I don't think Scots are wild eyed boat burners scoffing at reality (unlike the English).

Buteo Wed 09-May-18 22:52:30
How can you spend £12 million on ‘administrative services’ in just 6 months?

Indeed, that's a large and very stinking rat.

I'm away... unbelievably in Lisbon attending Eurovision for the first time! ( I was sitting next to a Regretter on the flight too.)

BUT I was just gobsmacked to see this on the BBC business news. The BeeBeeCee!

"The committee said there was a "striking" contrast between the government's apparent confidence over the risk of disruption to food supplies and the "vocal" concerns of industry and consumer bodies."

"Most companies had no idea what the impact of Brexit would be on their business, she said."

The tide is turning folks- keep plugging away, signing petitions, writing to MPs. I'm writing to thanks to some members of the HoL.

There is a small silver lining in Trump's recent shocking Iran cloud. Surely now everyone can see that it is too risky to rely on the US for anything let alone food supplies?

www.bbc.com/news/business-44060430

Wait - you're at the Eurovision???

Yes... I'm a bit embarrassed! But yes. I am! I really am!

lonely I'm exceptionally jealous

Dh still head in the sand

It's driving me nuts 😡😡😔😔

I'm just not sure what prep to do for next March!?

Hopefully mine and dc Irish citizenship and passports will be sorted by then

But what else can I do?

Save some money I guess
Start putting away long life food?

Btw our Drs surgery has been given a long list of meds it can no longer prescribe due to "licensing issues"

So, hoarding meds too I suppose?

Christ.

Btw our Drs surgery has been given a long list of meds it can no longer prescribe due to "licensing issues

Seriously? So is that all EU derived meds on the list? Surely not?

Also Im still amazed that the BBC carried an accurate- what are we doing type article. It's significant that they did so on food. As this is The key survival thing, it is therefore going to be understandable to most people surely?

Also not on the BBC: our 9 detention centres (compared to 10 in refugee welcoming Germany)

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........WM will never allow Scotland to leave the UK.

I don't think the WM Govt of the time 'allowed' Ireland to leave the UK, but leave it did, leading to the situation in NI - with a gerrymandered boundary to maintain a Protestant majority.

Here's some of the HOL report lonely referred to:

Food security is critically important, but agreeing on the best way to provide food security raises tensions between the different priorities we have considered during this inquiry. As the UK prepares to leave the EU, it is unclear whether the Government’s goal is maintaining or even reducing food prices, or maintaining high animal welfare and food safety standards; protecting UK producers, or seeking new trade agreements with other countries

129.We agree with witnesses to this inquiry that the Government should produce, with some urgency, a comprehensive food strategy for the UK that sets a clear policy direction for ensuring the UK’s food security in a post-Brexit world

www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/eu-energy-environment-subcommittee/news-parliament-2017/brexit-food-prices-report-publish/

publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldeucom/129/12909.htm#_idTextAnchor075

This report doesn't seem to have made its way to msm.

But it is mentioned on the BBC which I found astonishing.
It's only in the business section admittedly, as if a maverick journalist slipped it past the usual BBC agenda.

Think the words " with some urgency " are significant.

Found it! Thanks lonely I'm sure it wasn't hidden. Have a great Eurovision.
The Freight Transport Association said the "paralysis" at Dover and on the surrounding road network caused by the French ferry workers' strike in 2015 could be repeated if no customs solutions were found
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44060430

........WM will never allow Scotland to leave the UK.
Which sort of proves the point that the UK a union in name only.