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Brexit

Westministenders: Amber Alert

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2018 19:25

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

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Thread gallery
51
DGRossetti · 09/05/2018 15:09

I know; she's my MP and I've written to her more than once about Brexit. All I get is 'but people voted and what if the vote were disrespected, they'd never vote again' blah blah blah.

Similar to my (Labour) MP Sad.

Motheroffourdragons · 09/05/2018 15:15

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Mightybanhammer · 09/05/2018 15:48

There are some pretty blood chilling comments from Senior International Trade Adviser jdd on the r North blog over last few days.

I have been keeping away from the debate as it was beginning to affect me badly. How easy it is to allow ones concerns to be quelled by an inner voice saying it can't possibly happen- and this after I have spent months educating myself on the subject.

Reading that blog again I feel literally sick with fear.

How many believe ( like j d d who is half Irish and emigrating to the Republic the week before Brexit) we will end in food riots and rationing after Brexit day?

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 09/05/2018 15:48

Jack Maidment has just continued the thread

Jack Maidment
@jrmaidment
Jeremy Corbyn's spokesman on whether Labour will seek to overturn the Lords EEA membership amendment: “We have indicated in what we have already done what position we take on that.”
Labour peers were whipped to abstain so safe bet that MPs will be told to do the same.

Here's the key exchange with Jeremy Corbyn's spokesman on the EEA membership amendment. Seems pretty clear that Labour MPs will be told to abstain if Govt tries to overturn it. What do you make of this @OwenSmith_MP @ChrisLeslieMP?

Westministenders: Amber Alert
OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 09/05/2018 15:52

Children 'denied free school meals because of parents' immigration status'

Headteachers and campaigners say ministers must review policy that leaves poorest families without access to benefits

www.theguardian.com/education/2018/may/09/children-denied-free-school-meals-because-of-parents-immigration-status

DGRossetti · 09/05/2018 16:01

I think the UK has really missed a trick in developing integrated services.

Surely we could have media outlets like the BBC with programmes like "The Great British Subsistence Diet" where a group of immigrants denied access to benefits show how to eke out 50p to fee a family of four for a week. (Obviously any recipes will become the property of the production company for inclusion in their spin off book and "app").

"The Great British Sewing Bee" could have families of impoverished immigrants showing how to make do and mend when you can't afford new clothes. There might even be scope for a spin-off show, where they get to design Home Office approved patches to make the life of the immigration officer easier ? Some nice star designs perhaps ?

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 09/05/2018 16:19

Kevin Schofield
@PolhomeEditor
I understand Labour will not be pushing the section 40 amendment to the Data Protection Bill to a vote, meaning newspapers will not be liable for legal costs in libel actions they win. Big victory for investigative journalism.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 09/05/2018 16:20

Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
Government have defeated Ed Miliband's Leveson 2 amendment - 295 to 304

DGRossetti · 09/05/2018 16:45

I wonder when these will start hitting the doormats ?

Westministenders: Amber Alert
prettybird · 09/05/2018 17:27

I've posted the link to that Labour Policy Contact Form along with a bit of a rant Blush on my Facebook timeline and encouraged my friends to complete it Smile

I don't have any Brexiters amongst my friends - but there again, I'm not sure I have any many who will ever vote Labour again (the couple that I did know which includes me were either disillusioned with Labour long ago or after the Referendum especially the one who voted No in the Indyref because she wanted to stay in the EU ) - but in a sense, that's the point: they need to know that their policies are turning existing and potential voters away from them.

Dh may disapprove as he now thinks that we need Brexit to be as hellish as possible, in order to ensure Scottish Independence - so I shouldn't be helping Labour to see the error of its ways.

EmilyAlice · 09/05/2018 17:36

I am keeping my Labour membership for the moment as I want a vote when Corbyn finally goes. I do get a bit pissed off when Labour spouts rubbish about people who have lived abroad for more than fifteen years who can't possibly have any links to the UK anymore and therefore shouldn't keep their vote. You don't want my money then?

TomRavenscroft · 09/05/2018 17:45

When will the Commons EEA vote be? I'll wait and tweet/write to/generally annoy Abbott then.

EmilyAlice, can I ask out of interest who you'd vote for for Labour leader?

Motheroffourdragons · 09/05/2018 17:48

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

EmilyAlice · 09/05/2018 18:10

I would vote for Yvette Cooper (who I voted for last time), Keir Starmer (though I think he is a bit boring as a speaker), Dan Jarvis (not much chance now).
We did actually vote in the Referendum but lose our vote next year. The idea that I don't care about the country that is home to my DD and GDs is ludicrous. I spend about six weeks a year in England, read the Guardian on my ipad before most people in the UK have woken up and think I am pretty much up to speed on politics.
I think some people think we live in the far reaches of the the Raj with The Times arriving on horseback once a month.

TomRavenscroft · 09/05/2018 18:26

Thanks Emily. I used to like Keir Starmer but feel that he's fallen too much into line with Corbyn recently. Cooper –yes, she's good. Don't really know Dan Jarvis.

We did actually vote in the Referendum but lose our vote next year.

It sucks, I know. I'm sorry for you and for others in your position.

EmilyAlice · 09/05/2018 18:32

I think Keir Starmer is trying to work around Corbyn all the time; imo he has the intellect but lacks charisma. None of them are very strong. Atlee was PM when I was born. 😢

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 09/05/2018 18:42

PARLY
@ParlyApp
Amendment 15 #DataProtectionBill defeated ayes 282 noes 310

okdok · 09/05/2018 19:06

Can't stand people who want to see the UK wrecked for the sake of Scottish independence. And who voted leave with that view in mind.
After Brexit AND Scottish independence I imagine that Scotland will be in a terrible state. Could be a very long time till it gets back into the EU. I'm not sure that Scottish nationalist ideologues are much better than the English variety. Many are in fact pro Brexit.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/05/2018 19:17

mighty I always pay special attention to JDD
I keep trying to console myself that he is a pessimistic bugger and hears too many rumours.

However, his straight reporting of his work reveals horrific ignorance in govt - and very junior civil servants being used beyond their capability, maybe chosen just because they are not "negative"

North and a few others who are actually involved in international trade have been getting very gloomy, ever since May reneged on the NI backstop she had agreed in December.

So on balance, imo, looks like the unthinkable Ultra Brexit - WTO or even accidental crash out - is more likely than a "soft" EEA / EFTA type Brexit.
Even a CETA-type deal would hammer the economy.

Big date is June, where the EU Council are quite likely to stop trade talks - which may cause the UK to storm out too
Really final date is October, where at least the Withdrawal Agreement needs to be ready, to give time for all countries to approve it by 29 March 2019

No WA means no transition, so it really would be an abrupt Brexit then, with the UK as a 3rd country, at Year Zero.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/05/2018 19:23

OK You'll always get a few wreckers & anarchists in any party

However, Leavers are a minority in the SNP, as they are in Sinn Fein and the SDLP. In Plaid too, iirc.
Of all the UK political parties, the nationalists have probably the highest % of Remain voters - hence why the Brexit press keeps hammering them.

The leaders too, were unequivocal about backing Remain in the Ref and also afterwards in very strongly supporting E27 expats in Scotland & NI.

Cherrypi · 09/05/2018 20:51

What has JDD said please? I can’t find the comments.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/05/2018 21:28

Airbus will move all the work for the ground control for the new EU satellite navigation system, Galileo, from the UK to France or Germany should it win the bid.

A €200 million contract from the European Space Agency

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/09/airbus-space-contract-will-move-from-uk-to-continent-because-of-brexit

IrenetheQuaint · 09/05/2018 21:41

I'm suspicious of JDD's wilder claims, but quite sure that "horrific ignorance in govt - and very junior civil servants being used beyond their capability" is 100% accurate.

Martin Kettle is hopeful that the tide in Parliament is turning: www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/09/soft-brexit-lords-tory-moderates

RedToothBrush · 09/05/2018 22:02

www.independent.co.uk/voices/eu-trade-brexit-north-east-customs-union-single-market-a8343591.html?amp&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
The Northeast will be hit hardest if we stop trading with the EU – that's why we're demanding a new Brexit vote
Our region is an export powerhouse. Sixty per cent of our trade is with the EU. All of that could be at risk if we quit the customs union and the single market

Phil Wilson, Paul Williams, Bridget Phillipson, Anna Turley, Catherine McKinnell

Joint opinion piece from a bunch of Labour MPs.

To my knowledge these are NOT the usual suspects who have made noises along these lines before.

Jonathan Lis @jonlis1
Big coup, this. A couple of these MPs haven’t publicly been anywhere near anti-Brexit movement, and also represent Leave-voting seats. If they can be brave enough to put their heads above the parapet to challenge this shambolic govt, hopefully more of their colleagues will too

Rowena Kay @ rowena_kay
Brave. Or far sighted. Voters won't thank them for a Brexit that closes their employers and destroys their community. Whatever box they crossed in 2016.

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RedToothBrush · 09/05/2018 22:07

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/09/arron-banks-company-provided-12m-of-services-to-leaveeu?CMP=share_btn_fb&__twitter_impression=true
Arron Banks company provided £12m of services to Leave.EU
‘Administrative services’ were provided prior to £700,000 spending cap taking effect

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