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Brexit

Westministenders: Amber Alert

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2018 19:25

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

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Thread gallery
51
BigChocFrenzy · 04/05/2018 13:47

iirc, the turning point is about age 47
Younger than this, Labour have a majority; older and the Tories do

BigChocFrenzy · 04/05/2018 13:50

Yet another offensively sectarian councillor in NI

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/cmon-paddy-eu-can-leave-too-councillor-slammed-for-racist-famine-tweet-36872136.html

A Belfast City councillor has been reported to a local Government watchdog over a "racist, sectarian and offensive" tweet.

Independent councillor Jolene Bunting, who has previously caused controversy by associating with and supporting far-right group Britain First,

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 13:56

Boris Johnson @BorisJohnson
Jeremy Corbyn has been abandoned in many leave areas – his pledge to stay in the customs union means he is not trusted to deliver Brexit. PM’s clear Mansion House vision for leaving the single market and customs union a key part of Tory electoral success 3/3

Arj Singh @singharj
Brexiteers enjoying the Tories' performance in Leave areas and using it as leverage for their favoured customs model. But veteran Tory pollster Lord Hayward told me earlier Brexit hasn't come up on the doorstep at all. Story online soon (battling technical gremlins)

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RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 14:00

Press Association @PA
Key result: The Lib Dems gain control of Three Rivers, previously under no overall control

(Three Rivers is just to the South West of St Albans if you are not familiar with the name).

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RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 14:05

In the Sheffield City Region mayoral election, Labour's Dan Jarvis had 43.8% of the vote after Sheffield, Doncaster and Rotherham declared.

His hopes to get through on the first ballot were on resting Barnsley, where he is the MP.

But it didn't quite get him there, and with PA reporting he has 47.9% of the vote, the contest will have to go to a second round under the supplementary vote system.

BBC Look North's political editor James Vincent says: "Dan Jarvis hasn't done enough to win on first preference, so we'll be looking at second preferences. That will be seen a failure for Labour."

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RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 14:10

Heather Stewart @GuardianHeather
Hearing the LibDems could be in for a really good result in Kingston, which they’ve been targeting heavily. Rumours the Tories could even go down to single figures.

Its starting to look much better than it did earlier for the LDs.

Labour currently up 51 seats, Lds up 42 and Cons up 7.

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RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 14:22

Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot
Reports that Heidi Alexander is making an announcement later....

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/25/heidi-alexander-thought-to-be-considering-role-at-london-city-hall?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Heidi Alexander thought to be considering role at London City Hall
Labour MP quit as shadow health secretary in 2016 in protest at Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership

Also
BBC predicted national share based on results for local elections (for comparison with 2014 rather than the GE) Dr Curtice's projections.

35% Con +6
35% Lab +4
16% LD +3
14% Others

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DGRossetti · 04/05/2018 14:31

Its starting to look much better than it did earlier for the LDs.

I think it was on these very threads that someone pointed out that even if LDs don't win, getting an increased %age of the vote affects press coverage etc.

I know UKIP have an MEP presence (the irony) but do yesterdays results mean I shouldn't have to hear from them again on the BBC about UK issues ?

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 14:35

I thought UKIP's safest seat was on the Question Time panel...

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OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 04/05/2018 14:35

I'm in the building where the Kingston vote is being announced - they're gearing up to do it soon!

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 04/05/2018 14:38

The candidates have been saying that it’s looking positive for the Lib Dems- nothing official yet but their stacks are noticeably higher in several wards

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 14:39

Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ
Labour basically need another 64 seats to win a majority
How many of those are in London? = 7
How many of those are in non-London England? = 42

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BigChocFrenzy · 04/05/2018 14:42

pain is our reporter in the spot - more reliable than the Beeb

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 14:42

Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor
Heidi Alexander waiting until the Lewisham count is over later tonight before announcing she is standing down as an MP, I'm told.

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RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 14:47

(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges
Not entirely sure what the sourcing is, (seems to be from the BBC). But it appears there has actually been a 1% national swing from Labour to the Conservatives, (on 2014 result). Which is incredible. Jeremy Corbyn is performing more poorly than Ed Miliband.

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RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 14:49

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
June 2017 looks like Peak Corbyn, but then May 2017 looks like Peak May..as LibDems return. My take #LocalElections:

news.sky.com/story/have-jeremy-corbyn-and-theresa-may-both-passed-their-peak-11358021
Have Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May both passed their peak?
If Jeremy Corbyn has not peaked, then he has certainly plateaued, says Sky's Faisal Islam, while the PM still faces Brexit hell.

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OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 04/05/2018 14:50

Sam Coates Times
@SamCoatesTimes
BBC Projected National Share of the vote today compared to GE17
Con 35 (-7)
Lab 35 (-5)
LD 16 (+8)
Other 14

Sam Coates Times
@SamCoatesTimes
BBC Projected National Share of the vote
Con 35 (+6)
Lab 35 (+4)
LD 16 (+3)
Other 14 (-13)
(Compared to 2014)

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 04/05/2018 15:02

First ward of 16 declared (won’t post all 16 as they come in but thought the inaugural result would be nice!)

Westministenders: Amber Alert
RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 15:05

14 gains for the LDs in South Cambridgeshire.
It means they take control of the council.

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RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 15:05

Professor Sir John Curtice says: "There is insufficient evidence to be able to claim with any confidence that either the Conservatives or Labour would have been ahead in a general election in which the pattern of voting reflected that in today's local elections.

"Labour's projected 35% is the party's best performance in a PNS (projected national share) since 2012 when it scored 38%.

"However, whereas in 2013, 2014, and 2016 the party was estimated to be narrowly ahead of the Conservatives, this time it is only neck and neck with them.

"Nevertheless Labour are able to claim that, relative to the Conservatives, though not in terms of the party's absolute share of the vote, their performance was better than in last year's general election."

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missmoon · 04/05/2018 15:06

Lib Dems have taken control of South Cambs (previously heavily Tory). This includes most of the suburbs / villages around Cambridge.

missmoon · 04/05/2018 15:07

Sorry, X-post, but this is really significant, the council was previous 2/3 Tory.

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 15:12

Will Jennings @drjennings
Some of the voting patterns from the 2018 local elections (Labour to Conservative swing from 2014 to 2018)... Conservatives gaining in areas that voted Leave, and in towns - but not cities.

Westministenders: Amber Alert
Westministenders: Amber Alert
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RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 15:13

Will Jennings @drjennings
Note that there is much less structure to Labour's vote around Brexit... much like #GE2017.

A clear pattern of the Conservatives making gains in areas that voted UKIP in 2014....

Westministenders: Amber Alert
Westministenders: Amber Alert
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RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 15:17

Will Jennings @drjennings
Despite positioning themselves as the party of Remain, there is little structure to the Lib Dem vote according to Brexit (the line of best fit is distorted by results in Richmond)...

To the extent these elections were about Brexit, they are dominated by the unwinding of UKIP's support - which was rooted in deeper underlying social and political forces (for that, see @robfordmancs)

Rob Ford @robfordmancs
35-35 Dead heat in the BBC projected national shares.

Both Cons and Lab advance where already strong. Neither advance where weak.

Lab can't win a GE on big cities alone. Con can't win a GE majority if big cities continue to totally reject them.

Diagnosis? Deadlock.

The race for the centre ground starts NOW. GO!

watches the tumbleweeds

Westministenders: Amber Alert
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