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Brexit

Westministenders: Amber Alert

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2018 19:25

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

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RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 10:19

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
Local election results are not bad enough for Labour members to ditch Corbyn. Like Sisyphus, they will keep believing one last heave will push the boulder to the top of the hill, and will blame the MSM when it rolls back down again.

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RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 10:23

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
Equally, they are just good enough to keep May in power, even though she cannot settle Brexit, let alone address the real problems Britain faces. So we are stuck with mediocre irrelevances who not only don't have the answers, but don't even understand the questions.

Or as Matthew Arnold put it so much more poetically:
"And we are here as on a darkling plain
Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight,
Where ignorant armies clash by night."

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Cailleach1 · 04/05/2018 10:27

Gaspode. I'd add Chuka Umunna and Owen Smith to David Lammy and Keir Starmer. Yvette Cooper is from the toxic gen. but she had been good lately.

They need a 'dummy's guide to the EU' lesson, though. They badly seem to want to put a hard border in NI (not Owen Smith). Happily ignorant of CU and SM. SM got rid of border infrastructure in Ireland.

mrsreynolds · 04/05/2018 10:37

Decent night for the lib dems then?

Cailleach1 · 04/05/2018 10:39

And you have to hand it to Abbott on this.

Not only did she defy the whip and vote against the 2014 Immigration Act which hardened the hostile environment and made border guards of doctors, bank managers and landlords, she specifically asked Theresa May a question raising the possibility that the new measures introduced would affect those who are British nationals, but who might appear to be migrants.

So, May was alerted to it. How can she maintain otherwise?

On the recent failed Labour proposal..

Opening the debate, Diane Abbott, the shadow home secretary, said: "Many people feel that, with the Windrush scandal, all roads lead back to the prime minister."

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/05/praise-diane-abbott-one-only-mps-come-out-windrush-any-credit

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/windrush-scandal-tories-vote-block-release-secret-documents-a8333501.html

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 10:50

Decent enough, but I'd caveat that by saying that the LDs traditionally 'over perform' at locals and that EU citz can vote in locals which may well have an impact.

South Lakeland results are still yet to come in too. My suspicion is that things will not be quite so rosy there for the LDs in terms of results, but we shall see.

But they haven't made a significant break through either. More they will be relieved to see + rather than - in results which suggests they have bottomed out now (we shall see).

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Cailleach1 · 04/05/2018 10:58

Lib Dem divided their vote on my ballot. Too many standing. Strategy needed.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 04/05/2018 11:00

Lib Dems made really decent headway in our very Tory area. It's been a fairly startling night.

SusanWalker · 04/05/2018 11:06

I wonder if the BBC will stop giving UKIP so much airtime now their vote has collapsed. I won't hold my breath.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/05/2018 11:19

Meanwhile, tic toc …
There may be a more dramatic move out of businessesafter June, especially after October, if it becomes clear the govt can't won't accept an EEA / Efta type deal.
In the meantime, drip drip …

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/merrill-lynch-to-move-125-jobs-to-dublin-after-brexit-36867563.html

Bank of America Merrill Lynch will relocate 125 jobs to Dublin as it overhauls its banking business in the UK and Europe in preparation for Brexit.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/05/2018 11:20

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/03/post-brexit-port-checks-could-disrupt-fresh-food-supplies-say-freight-bosses

Food staples including lettuce, tomatoes and beef could be in short supply or even disappear from supermarket shelves after Brexit
because of disruptive checks that will need to be conducted at ports, Eurotunnel and freight industry chiefs have said.

Scores of continental favourites that currently sail and rail through the French border – including oranges, lemons and avocados from Spain and fresh flowers from Holland – will be subject to phytosanitary checks in addition to customs checks after Brexit.

DGRossetti · 04/05/2018 11:51

Food staples including lettuce, tomatoes and beef

Don't think we need to wait for Brexit for that.

I can guarantee that by 9:30 tomorrow morning all supermarket veg and meat aisles will look like they've been hit by the last hurricane of the season. (Feels smug as I suggested to DW she get her salad stuff for the weekend yesterday).

Have people forgotten the Great Lettuce Shortage of 2017 ?

prettybird · 04/05/2018 11:55

That's old news BigChocFrenzy - although that won't stop it coming as a surprise to the Government or Labour when it happens Confused

There are none so blind as will not see Hmm

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 11:56

Election Data @ election-data
I think we (should) wave goodbye to any notion that Labour can "choose the future" by going after younger liberals. There isn't a path if you're giving up seats in places like Sunderland, Middlesbrough, Wigan, Bolton, Dudley, Wakefield, and Hull.

Labour lost seven seats to the LDs in Hull.
Hull!!!

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DGRossetti · 04/05/2018 12:29

Labour lost seven seats to the LDs in Hull.

Maybe there's a lesson there Hmm

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 13:01

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Tories gain Redditch -another bad Lab result in trad swing seat-as we said last night, it's like 2 parties are locked in some kind of grim embrace - on results far, a sort of status quo, the trends are being reinforced, May can't truly beat Corbyn, Corbyn can't truly beat May

LDs rumoured to be doing better than expected in South Lakeland and South Cambridgeshire.

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OlennasWimple · 04/05/2018 13:18

I don't like the LD party much at the moment, but I'm glad to see it making a bit of a come-back last night. A pull towards the centre is almost always a good thing IMHO

BigChocFrenzy · 04/05/2018 13:23

From BBC earlier, after 100 out of 150 councils declared
Number of councillors compared to 2014:

  • Lab -2
  • Con +37
  • LDem +40
  • UKIP -92
  • GRN +6
  • Ind +10

The UKIP councillors went ⅔ to Con, ⅓ to Lab, 0 to LDem
So the Ldems had to directly win seats from Lab & Con, rather than gaining from the UKIP disintegration
A good performance from them, but small beer compared to what is needed to become a really significant player.

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 13:24

Turnout in Fallowfield (student area of Manchester) was 17%.

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lonelyplanetmum · 04/05/2018 13:28

Turnout in student area of Manchester was 17%

☹️

BigChocFrenzy · 04/05/2018 13:33

Ah, the BBC site now:

  • Lab +50
  • Con +9
  • LDem +38
  • UKIP -111
  • GRN +4
  • Ind +14
BigChocFrenzy · 04/05/2018 13:34

Are students voting at home ? iirc it's term-time though

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 13:34

Highest turnout in Manchester was 46.3%. (Chorlton).

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BigChocFrenzy · 04/05/2018 13:37

afaik, the only big scalp is no surprise - the Lib Dems have taken Richmond-upon-Thames from the Tories, thrashed them:

+LDem +24
+Con -28
+GRN +4

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 13:40

Prof John Curtice says the BBC's key ward results continue to show marked differences in the pattern of performance between constituencies with a young and an older age profile.

Labour's vote is up on average by as much as 11 points in wards where more than 35% of voters are aged between 18 and 34, but is up by just four points where the proportion of younger voters is less than 20%.

^Conversely, the Conservative vote is up by eight points on average in wards where there are relatively few younger voters, but is down by a point in those wards where there are more younger voters.
"These results appear to provide further proof of the growing age divide in Conservative and Labour support," he said.^

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