Westministenders: Amber Alert

[RedToothBrush]

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

Key result: The Lib Dems gain control of Three Rivers, previously under no overall control
This area covers S Herts and North Watford: almost bordering Dominic Grieve's Beaconsfield constituency. Lib dems are making significant, if modest inroads into tory areas in SE. I wonder if not just London, but outer London/ shires will start to become non tory areas.

Either that or one of them manages to find a charismatic leader. When things are so deadlocked, I think this is the only thing that will swing it. May and Corbyn each have as much charisma as a sweaty old sock.

SE shire demographic includes many young MC Londoners who move to these shires to raise kids.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Latest from Kingston Kingston: With counting in progress, so far the LDs have won 12 seats against the Tories’ 3. They've got 51% of the vote so far to the Tories’ 29%.

There's been more - they've just declared 2 more wards, one which had three Conservative councillors elected and the other that had three lib dems!

@lindasgrant
We had three Labour councillors in Crouch End - they were deselected and replaced by Momentum backed candidates. They all lost to the LibDems.

True-blue Surrey heartland here is no longer quite so blue as before. Tories lost 9 seats and now only have a majority of 1 on the district council.

Lots of local issue candidates though, which did distort the result somewhat.

Good news is that there is now no UKIP councillor in Surrey. I remember them having a lot of support prior to the Referendum among NIMBY locals itching to take their country back from the furriners. Probably all flocked back to the Tories, which makes the result even more encouraging if the Tories are losing wards even with an influx of ex-Kippers.

I thought Surrey council was also on the brink of going bankrupt?

Lib Dems have taken control of South Cambs (previously heavily Tory). This includes most of the suburbs / villages around Cambridge.

Doesn't surprise me at all. I work for a big company in the Cambridge area, Brexit is a huge deal, lots of very disillusioned (former) Tory voters among my colleagues.

As things stand the LDs have gained more seats than Labour with 11 councils to declare.

Not many commentators thought that would be even a possibility.

The Tories will probably think this justifies the referendum and everything since:
UKIP have disintegrated and ⅔ of their support has gone to the Tories
BUT
they seem to be losing some liberal pro-EU Tory voters to the LibDems

So after all that, they are no closer to winning the first substantial majority that they have had since 1987 - or indeed any working majority at all.
Brexit was their last desperate throw of the dice

Think about that:
Labour won large majorities under Blair, but the last large Tory majority was MrsT's over 30 years ago, in the previous millennium

Latest score:

• Lab +63
• Con -w0
• LDem +61
• UKIP -123

Con -20

www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/04/it_systems_still_in_limbo_as_departments_await_brexit_policy_mps/

The two UK government departments most exposed to Brexit have yet to show progress on how their IT systems will cope with the "unprecedented" challenge of leaving the EU – the Public Accounts Committee today warned.

"The Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (Defra) and the Department for International Trade (DIT) face an unprecedented challenge in preparing for Brexit.

(contd)

Totals for Kingston so far - 33 Lib Dems councillors elected and 6 Tories

Jack Hardy @JackHardy9
Labour hold Haringey, but lose seven seats to the Liberal Democrats, who now control the five wards in the west of the borough. Overall breakdown: Lab 42, Lib Dems 15

LDs so far have 17 seats in South Lakeland to the Tories 13. 51 seats up for grabs in total. Counting still on going.

36 Lib Dems to 6 Tories with only two more wards to go

Wow decisive in Kingston then!

Only 5 councils left to declare I believe.

As things stand the LDs have gained more seats than Labour with 11 councils to declare
Non brexit party voting strategy( anti brexit tactical voting) was in place.

@Skapinker
In Crouch End, where one of its supporters told a retiring Jewish councillor he would have more time to count his money, Labour loses all three of its seats.

Hence....Barnet, and a few others, I imagine.

And..... Labour is very quiet on the thousands of lost women labour votes, I notice.

And the 72% of labour voters who are anti brexit.

@britainelects
Pallion (Sunderland) result:
LDem: 60.1% (+57.0)
Lab: 29.4% (-18.4)
Con: 7.3% (-7.0)
Grn: 3.1% (-1.7)

Dan Jarvis has now won the election for mayor, BBC just reported

Maybe Labour will start to listen...

....

....

....

nahhhh.
wishful thinking.

pain have you gone right through the night? Hats off to you.
I thought getting back at 6am was bad enough today!

Maybe Labour will start to listen

Doesn't really work that way, though, does it ? It would effectively be an admission that they're wrong about something to start with.

I suspect that both Labour and Tories will use these results as "proof" that they need to be more whatever-it-is-they-are, not less.

The same way the Tories responded to 1997 by becoming even more unelectable for a while.

I see BoJo has already started ....

They only started counting this morning, for reasons not clear to me, so it's not been going through the night. I'm not actually involved but am in the building for other purposes - it's been handy though!