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Brexit

Westministenders: Amber Alert

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2018 19:25

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

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Thread gallery
51
mathanxiety · 04/05/2018 07:19

Yes, the end result is voter suppression. But the populace has to be primed to accept this big change to the democratic process and to the principles underlying the right to vote before suppression can be instituted. This is done by suggestion.

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 07:26

Kevin Schofield @ polhomeeditor
Furious Labour source: "Hundreds of activists were sent to campaign in the wrong places just to feed the outsized egos of a few pied pipers on Twitter. It can’t be allowed to happen again.”

Labour discover the echo chamber. What a shocker...

Status quo result would be good as far as I am concerned. Everyone struggles to spin it meaning something more.

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mathanxiety · 04/05/2018 07:26

Judging by the tales of voters being turned away with EU passports, and the story of Scottish people turned away from hospitals, I would say that there will not be an official ID issued. The best way to create a really hostile environment is to leave it up to individual overweening jobsworths to check credentials to ensure that the law as they see it is carried out to the letter.

The resulting outcry is not a negative - in this case there is no such thing as bad publicity. When grossly unfair treatment is publicised it puts people off emigrating to the UK. Mission accomplished.

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 07:31

Laura Kuenssberg @ bbclaurak
Barnet leader says anti-semitism has made a difference, said he's had Jewish labour voters in tears on the doorstep - says Barnet local party has been trying to deal with problem for 2 years, leadership has been too slow

Nick Cohen @ nickcohen4
I feel sorry for the defeated Labour councillors, but Labour had to be defeated in Barnet. A victory would have been taken as an endorsement of antiSemitism

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RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 07:31

Ian Jones @ ianajones
^How Labour has fared against those targets:
Swindon ❌
Trafford ❌
Amber Valley ❌
Westminster ❌
Carlisle ❌
Plymouth ☑️
Wandsworth ❌
Dudley ❌
Barnet ❌
Walsall ❌
Kirklees - still to come
Tower Hamlets - still to come
#Election2018

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RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 07:34

Carrie Symonds @ carriesymonds
Labour shadow minister: “Jeremy has not spent the 11 months since the General Election winning Middle England, and now never will. We’re not going to do as well as we should, and I suspect these results will show we are past peak Corbyn.”

Please God let this be true. Shut the howlers on twitter up and let the 'evil Blairites' do their job damn job by letting them speak without fear.

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RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 07:40

Norman Smith @ bbcnormans
Methinks likely inquest into Labour spinning of hoped for London results. Most target councils needed swings of more than 7.5% #Election2018

Lewis Goodall @ lewis_goodall
Stunning result for Lib Dems in Richmond. Tories have lost 28 seats- Lib Dems gain 24. Worst result for Tories in Richmond since 1997.

The LDs were predicted to make net loss of seats. Still a while to go but that looks unlikely.

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RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 07:48

Can't be arsed to post the rest of the thread.

Paul Mason @ paulmasonnews
5/ ...to win swing seats in Midlands and S England, Labour needs to get even more outside its comfort zone & fight for centrist votes...

HOWLING WITH LAUGHTER!

You don't say. Instead of slagging centrists off you say?

Christ its be clear as day on the weekly yougov polling. And what people have been saying. But you'd know that if you weren't in an echo chamber or could understand polls.

My fucking god.

Can't wait to see what Owen Jones says about last night.

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Motheroffourdragons · 04/05/2018 08:05

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 08:09

Spoiler: He won't.

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Motheroffourdragons · 04/05/2018 08:15

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 08:24

Norman Smith @ bbcnormans
Peak Corbyn ? "No,no. There's much more to come and its going to get even better" - @jeremycorbuyn #election2018

Get your football manager comparison sheet out now.

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RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 08:46

Owen Jones @ owenjones84
Just look at this. We did two mass @PeoplesMomentum canvasses in Westminster - and Labour got a really big increase in its vote share. In fact: Labour nearly got the exact same vote share as the Tories (which ludicrously does not translate into seats).

Owen jones comes out for proportional representation. Oh wait no he doesn't

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VivaKondo · 04/05/2018 08:49

The resulting outcry is not a negative - in this case there is no such thing as bad publicity. When grossly unfair treatment is publicised it puts people off emigrating to the UK. Mission accomplished.

It also create a system where its everyone that is responsible to check on everyone.
It might well put off immigrants to come over.
It will also create a society where everyone ‘spies’ on everyone. People can take revenge by reporting someome (I know of a case where a woman was reported to the HO out of revenge. It’s creating a huge issue for her to now be able to ‘prove’ she is here legally - even though it shouldnt be as she is an EU citizen). And then it’s up to the person who has been reported to prove they are actually OK (rather than the HO or police to prove they’ve done something wrong)

RESPECT is based on a similar frame of mind.

Putting the responsibility of policing into the hands of lay people.

lalalonglegs · 04/05/2018 08:54

Owen Jones and Eddie Izzard turned out in Wandsworth yesterday... and they wonder why Labour didn't triumph here Hmm

Westministenders: Amber Alert
Peregrina · 04/05/2018 08:56

It will also create a society where everyone ‘spies’ on everyone.
Then Leavers get arsy when we say we can see parallels with how pre war Germany went and embraced Nazism. Don't think education will save us either. For one thing the Germans were well educated and cultured. Secondly Cameron, Johnson, Gove, May, Farage have also had good or in the case of the men, expensive educations, and look where that has got us.

GaspodeWonderCat · 04/05/2018 09:09

Darren Hughes, chief executive of the Electoral Reform Society, said there was "mounting evidence" of people being turned away from polling stations because of needing identification.

There was controversy on Thursday as some voters in Swindon, Woking and Bromley were reportedly prevented from voting as they fell into areas where a trial was taking place in order to tackle voter fraud.

The Cabinet Office said the pilots were a success.

However, Mr Hughes told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "This is exactly what we are worried about: honest voters, entitled to vote, on the register, but either didn't have or forgot their ID."

He said in the five areas where the pilot is being carried out, there had not been an allegation of fraud in the past ten years, so needing ID "really is a sledgehammer to crack a nut".

Mr Hughes added: "It is honest voters missing out to tackle a problem that is just not there."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-43998600 at 9:02

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 09:12

Nick Robinson @ bbcnickrobinson
You can't accuse UKIP's @PaulJamesOakley of spin. He's just compared his party with the Black Death on @BBCr4today. When I checked that I'd heard him correctly he replied : 'What's wrong with that?"

Black death popular in Derby.

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SusanWalker · 04/05/2018 09:17

Loads of corbynites on Twitter gobsmacked that Labour didn't do as well as expected. Apparently it's because the electorate are selfish and racist. Some people are calling for more blairites to be deselected. Any suggestion that it might just be that people don't like Corbyn is blamed on media bias. I think it will take another GE loss before Labour has another leadership contest.

Peregrina · 04/05/2018 09:19

Recall on a Westministenders thread a good few months ago that someone compared Brexit to the Black Death in that in the long run it was a good thing, because only healthy human stock survived.

GaspodeWonderCat · 04/05/2018 09:33

I think it will take another GE loss before Labour has another leadership contest.

Even then it will be someone else's fault and he will hang onto power until ...
a. There is no more Labour party - just Jeremy, Diane and John (I had a flashback to Babylon 5 and the 3 leads then - John Sheridan, Susan Ivanova and Mr Garibaldi - it was a much better place).
b. A new hope(ful) arises - David Lammy, Keir Starmer ...
c. A new centrist party is formed ...

I just don't think Jeremy will go easily without a massive fight which will tear the party apart no matter the consequences to the country or the party.

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 09:46

Senior Labour sources and MPs are pretty much saying both privately and openly that Corbyn's team is in denial about the reasons for Labour's performance not matching expectation.

This is the projection based on last nights results

Westministenders: Amber Alert
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RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 09:52

I agree GaspodeWonderCat

The issue is the way the Labour Party vote for the leader.

The number of Corbynites in the membership is problematic. If the Labour membership is unrepresentative of Labour voters and is so wrapped up in itself then Corbyn is unchallengeable.

You have the Labour equivalent of the 'swivel eyed loons' who have no counterweight to moderate to the general electorate.

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Peregrina · 04/05/2018 09:56

Assuming that the Tories did only get 305 seats, then the DUP even assuming that they retained their 10, wouldn't be able to bail them out.
If the Lib Dems and SNP + PC supported a confidence and supply arrangement, then Labour could just about form a minority government. I am excluding Sinn Fein, which might mess up my arithmetic.

RedToothBrush · 04/05/2018 10:09

Yes they would.

Trouble is, that Labour would have to do something called 'compromise'.

I can't see that happening on the strength of how they are treating their own centre right.

And I think the LDs and the SNP would be very wary about going into a formal coalition. More likely you would have a confidence and supply arrangement on each issue and Labour going it alone as a minority government.

Which would lead to a new general election. Certainly I think the LDs can only really revive themselves by taking that approach. Its not in their interests to go into coalition again - especially with so many other parties.

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