Westministenders: Amber Alert

[RedToothBrush]

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

Lucy Powell mp @ lucympowell
Back from 5 hours at #Windrush Centre in Moss Side where I held a public meeting/open surgery. People came from far & wide for advice & help, most are terrified or have heart-breaking stories. I took up 28 cases tonight with 20 more to come. This is one’s first passport: British

I’m confident most cases will now get sorted via new unit. However, most would never have contacted by themselves and live in fear of deportation or other sanctions. The dozens who came tonight is tip of iceberg, I fear.

There are 650 constituencies in this country. If there is just one case per constituency. It won't be. I expect at least 150 cases to pop up around Moss Side on the basis of Lucy Powell's tweets.

Sajid Javid said he'd handle each case himself personally.

Jess Phillips commented he was going to be doing a lot of work.

The cases talked about today in the HoC were horrendous. Every mp had at least one story to illustrate a point and clearly had a good case load of similar ones they didn't talk about.

The scale of this is going to shock when it becomes transparent.

Yes, voting in NI is very predictable.

The ERG is bad enough, but although it's old news I only realised today I have been helping to fund it!

So the membership of the group is paid for partly from dark money and partly from MPs expenses?

www.opendemocracy.net/uk/adam-ramsay/tory-ministers-taxpayer-cash-hard-Brexit-erg

If there was a rival 'Euro and Schengen research group' how would that be funded? Could it also be (doubly) funded by MPs drawing their salary, plus further tax payers' monies, via expenses claims for subscriptions?

Top headline on bbc radio 4 news at 8 was that the ICO will continue to pursue the Cambridge analytica investigation, followed by the breast screening mishandling and then trump’s payment to Cohen being confirmed by Giuliani. Was surprised to hear CA lead, though haven’t listened to bbc news for awhile

A round-up of whether various nations want trade deals with the U.K. (US, China, Japan, Canada, India, Mercosur, Mexico, S Korea, India).
Not really, it seems. Would prioritise their deal with the EU. Only if it benefits them. Only if Britain manages to conclude a withdrawal agreement with the EU. Only if we grant more visas for their citizens. Only if we accept a flood of their cheap beef. Only by accepting unfavourable terms. Only after years of negotiating.
But it wouldn't compensate for the huge hit of leaving the EU anyway.

We really are in a very weak position. But we knew all this. Presumably the Govt does too. So why...?

Conservative MPs are threatening to block Theresa May’s plan for a “customs partnership” with the EU – claiming it would stop the UK doing meaningful trade deals with other countries after Brexit. Brexiteers have claimed that other countries are “queuing up” to strike trade agreements with Britain after it leaves the bloc, and that the supposed benefits of leaving the EU would not be realised under the PM’s plan. In reality, though, the situation is more complicated. First of all, there isn’t a lot of evidence that signing new free trade agreements (FTAs) would deliver an economic boost anything like enough to compensate for the hit from leaving the EU single market and customs union. The Institute for Fiscal Studies says “simple arithmetic” and “a basic understanding of trade” show the gains from such FTAs are likely to be small. But another problem is that countries aren’t exactly queuing up to do deals with Britain – or where they seem to be, things aren’t as straightforward as they appear.

The Department for International Trade says it has “already held discussions with more than 70 countries” and insists “none have displayed any interest in disrupting trade flows, or in erecting barriers to trade that do not currently exist” – but trade experts are concerned that countries will use the UK’s situation to try to extract favourable terms.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-trade-deals-customs-partnership-eu-impact-theresa-may-plan-a8332411.html

If we were to chose to compare ourselves with Australia and New Zealand, when we went into the EEC, they began to find new, and expanding markets, much nearer to home. We by contrast, are looking for markets half way across the globe.

chose =choose.

Thanks for posting this clip yesterday woman. Lammy really has integrity, sincerity and honour. We need more like him. There are some good people in politics. I'm reminded of the saying that women and BAME people have to be of a much higher calibre to be able to succeed, so many will appear excellent when contrasted with standard male, pale, stale politicians.
(Of course, there are exceptions on both sides!)

mobile.twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/991025253831847936

Jennifer Williams @ jenwilliamsMEN
Cllr texts. ‘Not saying early turnout is slow, but I made the poll clerk jump by walking into the room at 8.15am.’ Do go and vote people or otherwise I’m going to be sat in the office eating pizza tonight and blogging about nothing

Nick Cohen @ nickcohen4
Comparing the election fury on my Twitter feed with the near-empty polling station I've just left makes me wonder if I'm following a representative sample of the great British public

Is there a point at which - ignoring the law - a vote can be considered questionable because of such a low turnout ? Or when the winners "win" by such a small %age of the electorate as to be almost farcical ?

It's hard to claim to speak for "the people" when only 5 people in 1,000 actually voted for you ...

In case CA disappears …
Like Windscale was renamed to Sellafield after spewing out radioactivity

The core of CA is going into the new Mercer setup: Emerdata☠️

https://amp.businessinsider.com/cambridge-analytica-executives-and-mercer-family-launch-emerdata-2018-3

•	The power players behind Cambridge Analytica have set up a new company - and thedaughters of Donald Trump-supporting billionaire Robert Mercer have just joined as directors.
•	Rebekah and Jennifer Mercer joined Emerdata on March 16, but it is shrouded in mystery.
•	<span class="italic">Alexander Nix, the suspended CEO of Cambridge Analytica, is also a director,</span> as well as other executives from parent firm SCL Group.
•	Emerdata also lists Johnson Chun Shun Ko, a Chinese executive from Frontier Services Group, the military firm chaired by prominent Trump supporter Erik Prince.

It isn't clear what Emerdata does, though the company is listed under "data processing, hosting, and related activities."
It shares an address in Canary Wharf with Cambridge Analytica's parent, SCL Group.

My local polling station was empty this morning though usually never busy anyway. But I've been telling at another and its been steady though not packed.

I'm reminded of the saying that women and BAME people have to be of a much higher calibre to be able to succeed

Hester, I really thought Lammy was so eloquent on the rights of the Windrush people to their citizenship. Abbot kept saying things like they are proud to be British and are patriotic. I cringed at this. Lammy nailed it. They have a right. They don't have to be proud or any prouder than any other citizen. They don't even have to be patriotic or more patriotic than any other citizen. They have a right.

Yes, women and People of Colour shouldn't have to be higher calibre to succeed.
But sadly, we do

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
^Crystal Palace councillor Angela Wilkins wrote on Twitter: "Just been round the C Palace polling stations.
"5 people not able to vote due to £voterID pilot and several walked away because of queues @CatSmithMP @labour4bromley. So why are we doing this?"^
Labour MP for Lewisham West and Penge Ellie Reeves wrote on Twitter: "Just been to vote. Was informed that two people had already turned up without ID this morning so had been unable to vote."

Well DW and I will pop into vote on the way to an afternoon coffee treat, and seeing if she can get some salad stuff for the weekend.

Our issue is they have moved the polling station from the primary school we've always used, to the college next door. (Which does make me wonder if they've closed the college for the day ???). Part of the boundary changes, apparently.

"Just been to vote. Was informed that two people had already turned up without ID this morning so had been unable to vote."

Ridiculous I read/ heard on the radio there have been 27 cases of voter fraud identified in previous elections.

When there is no time to sort anything out ( Windrush, NHS, education) why on Earth are pilots about non existent voter fraud happening?

why on Earth are pilots about non existent voter fraud happening?

Because the voters are likely to be poor, and therefore more inclined to vote Labour. If the Tories can't win by fair means they will use foul.

On a completely separate issue, a local library in Oxford has been kept open because people have raised £90,000 to do so. This made me think of David Cameron's mother whining about the cuts to the local library service. I wonder whether she chipped in?

Was there ever a problem with voter fraud ?

One thing there has been a problem with, that nobody wants to address, is the rise of postal voting has led to some (anecdotal, but surely worthy of further investigation) cases where community elders collect all the polling cards from people, so they can vote on their behalf.

Personally, I think voting is the one area where personal presence should be the benchmark, and any deviation is very carefully controlled.

I say that as someone whose DW has to use a wheelchair and is daily a victim of societies ignorance of disability issues.

why on Earth are pilots about non existent voter fraud happening?
Meanwhile one of the officer's round our way has been chasing cases determined not to disenfranchise anyone. Its that sort of joined up thinking that goes down well with the electorate eh ?

On a completely separate issue, a local library in Oxford has been kept open because people have raised £90,000 to do so. This made me think of David Cameron's mother whining about the cuts to the local library service. I wonder whether she chipped in?

There's a phrase you''' never heard now, but our Victorian forbears would have been familiar with:

By public subscription

But that was in an age when the monied classes actually felt they had to assuage their everlasting souls buy helping the less fortunate - inspired by their Christian faith.

Our local library still bears the legacy of those days ... they embedded it in the brickwork "By public subscription ... A Reading Room". (A library only open 9-1 and 2-5 Tuesdays).

Being a massive pre-raphaelite fan, I know that there was a great drive in Victorian days for the well off to subsidize classes for the working poor ....

Been a steady stream of voters out our local polling stations. The turnout looks higher than usual for a local elections only election. It's going to be an interesting count round here, but for local reasons.

There were two people leaving when I arrived at my polling station - one already in there when I went in - and one arriving as I left... I've seen it quieter for general elections tbh.

However, I electorally profiled them and 3 out of the 4 looked like tories. .. though my means of identification were less than scientific ( I looked at them and judged).