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Brexit

Westministenders: Amber Alert

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2018 19:25

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

OP posts:
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DGRossetti · 03/05/2018 16:31

No more or less busy than last time we voted locally ...

lonelyplanetmum · 03/05/2018 16:39

I looked at them and judged..

My 10 year old did that too. Spontaneously came out with it.
" I can tell Tories Mummy."
" How?!"
" They all look the same.They've all got dyed hair and too much make up.. like they care too much about what other people might think."

Now that doesn't come from me and I explained other points of view. Made me smile nevertheless..

DGRossetti · 03/05/2018 16:43

However, I electorally profiled them and 3 out of the 4 looked like tories.

Probably as reliable as astrology ... Hmm

lonelyplanetmum · 03/05/2018 16:58

Voter ID- disenfranchisement has been happening.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/local-elections-latest-voters-denied-right-id-check-identification-polling-stations-london-a8334306.html

  1. There has been no evidence of a significant problem with voter fraud.
  1. There has been a more serious problem with electoral funding fraud ( see BeLeave) which is not being addressed.
  1. When we generally operate a very flexible non compulsory identity card type system, how is this legitimate?
  1. If a pilot is run. Surely it should be 'please bring ID' to record who produces it . But then allow those without ID to vote nevertheless.
  1. Serious criminals, psychopathic murders are not disenfranchised- how can this be right.
  1. Was a democratic central govt decision made about this?
  1. When there are more economically devastating issues at stake why is experimenting with voting systems a priority?

It is almost like an experiment in how far can we go removing normal democratic structures and principles.

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 03/05/2018 17:10

However, I electorally profiled them and 3 out of the 4 looked like tories. .. though my means of identification were less than scientific ( I looked at them and judged).

Round here its relatively safe to assume everyone votes Tory unless they give some other tell, like snarling at the present candidate standing near the polling station (genuinely happened a few times). Usually comes out Tory heavy but not far off!

DGRossetti · 03/05/2018 17:10

Serious criminals, psychopathic murders are not disenfranchised- how can this be right.

If they're in jail they are (for now).

TheElementsSong · 03/05/2018 17:27

The tellers in my polling station said it had been quiet, but that was this morning so maybe things picked up.

If I go solely on number of boards/posters on nearby houses, our ward will be going Labour. With no help from my vote though.

bluerunningshoes · 03/05/2018 17:29

a colleague was turned away from the polling station because they didn't accept the (perfectly valid) european passport. had the polling card as well...

DGRossetti · 03/05/2018 17:30

Our ward is 49.5% Tory .... majority of over 1,000 Sad

We were classed as a disadvantaged area in 2002, (which is why we dodged stamp duty). So assumptions about peoples politics from appearance is a dangerous game.

OlennasWimple · 03/05/2018 17:35

Was there ever a problem with voter fraud

There have been pockets of fraud (in NI in the past, Tower Hamlets) but not a wide-scale national problem that anyone appears to be aware of. Having said that, I do agree with DGRossetti that exercising one's civic right and duty to vote should be done in person, with the bar for postal or proxy votes set high

bluerunningshoes · 03/05/2018 17:35

colleague will try again later btw.

Dobby1sAFreeElf · 03/05/2018 17:36

colleague was turned away from the polling station because they didn't accept the (perfectly valid) european passport. had the polling card as well...
EU voters can vote in local elections, I hope your colleague has complained.

bluerunningshoes · 03/05/2018 17:37

proxy votes should be only allowed in very extreme circumstances or even illegal imo

TheElementsSong · 03/05/2018 17:38

Blueshoes That’s outrageous! Is that one of the wards trialling voter ID? Because otherwise they shouldn’t need ID or polling card at all! (Not that i agree with voter ID anyway).

lonelyplanetmum · 03/05/2018 17:41

Re criminals voting.Sorry I was confused about law changes on that.

I thought that the government proposed legislation to allow prisoners to vote about seven years ago?

I just googled it.Hilariously MPs voted overwhelmingly by 234 to 22 in favour of a cross-party motion that said parliament.should. decide. on .such .an . important . issue!

That's obviously more important than Brexit then!

www.theguardian.com/society/2017/oct/29/government-planning-to-allow-some-prisoners-to-vote-european-court-human-rights

DGRossetti · 03/05/2018 17:46

a colleague was turned away from the polling station because they didn't accept the (perfectly valid) european passport. had the polling card as well...

They should get onto their consulate immediately ...

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 03/05/2018 17:46

Just finished my teller’s shift and there was a slow but steady stream of people. One of the candidates said he estimated that the turn out would be 10% smaller than the general election turnout.

There was a great drive in America to counter vote fraud but it fell apart. Definitely about voter disenfranchisement rather than preventing fraud.

www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/03/kris-kobach-just-got-humiliated-in-federal-court/

DGRossetti · 03/05/2018 17:46

(via Twitter ...)

Hasenstein · 03/05/2018 17:52

"a colleague was turned away from the polling station because they didn't accept the (perfectly valid) european passport. had the polling card as well..."

Pure ignorance, one would hope. EU nationals have always been entitled to vote in local elections, so they must have thought we've already left. Disgraceful either way.

Arborea · 03/05/2018 19:36

My ward is currently Tory too, but I couldn't call how it's going to go. A Lib Dem swing isn't totally inconceivable, but sadly as an area it's heavily Leave, so they'll likely only pick up votes if people are voting on local issues. There's a lot of local anger against the local councillors who are perceived to have put their own interests first a few times too often recently, from both Labour and Tory so that might help the Lib Dems.

DH and I were out early and it was very quiet. We're fairly new to this particular ward so I don't know what is typical.

SwedishEdith · 03/05/2018 20:38

This good. David Davis - the gift that keeps on giving.

twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/992056950077755393

RedToothBrush · 03/05/2018 20:49

Is David Davis, er y'know, ok?

There isn't anything that might be hampering his ability to do his job or something?

Only you start to wonder with so many quotes like that and the fact that he had a reputation for being quite sharp in the past. I remember when he for head of brexit, David Allen Green saying May was serious about Brexit as it was a decent appointment....

sigh

OP posts:
Mistigri · 03/05/2018 21:21

I would be prepared to bet a moderate sum of money that Brexit has literally driven David Davis to drink.

bluerunningshoes · 03/05/2018 21:23

had a text from colleague.
has managed to vote second time round. must have been a traininf error...

Mistigri · 03/05/2018 21:25

I looked at them and judged..

I know this is Very Bad Parenting but when we travel to the UK I play "spot the brexiters" with my kids.