Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westministenders: Amber Alert

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2018 19:25

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

OP posts:
Thread gallery
51
RedToothBrush · 02/05/2018 17:03

Esther Webber @estwebber
Conservative Lord Patten introduces an amendment requiring ministers to act in a way that is compatible with the 1998 Northern Ireland Act and the Belfast principles.
Lord Patten refers to the old animosities in N Ireland and says: "It would be shameful if we did anything to make that more likely - it would be a stain on our history"
Lord Patten on Jacob Rees-Mogg comments about the Lords "playing with fire", "I'll tell you what playing with fire is - blundering into Northern Ireland with a policy which is clueless and deluded with a can of petrol and a box of matches in the other hand"

Lib Dem Lord Alderdice, former speaker of the NI Assembly, says if the govt tries to fob off NI commitments to future legislation it will in the minds of Irish and N Irish people "justify the phrase 'perfidious Albion'"

Crossbencher Lord Eames, former Primate of All Ireland, says the border is not just Northern Ireland's - it's the whole UK's - border with Europe and there's "a growing apprehension we will be left to carry the can"

Conservative Lord Trimble says it's "a mistake to link this process with the maintenance of peace in Northern Ireland" and doing so could be seen as "scaremongering"
Lord Trimble says Dublin and Brussels want a special arrangement tying Northern Ireland to the EU which would see its "link to the rest of the UK weakened"

OP posts:
mrsreynolds · 02/05/2018 17:07

Love that pic woman

DGRossetti · 02/05/2018 17:23

Lord Patten on Jacob Rees-Mogg comments about the Lords "playing with fire", "I'll tell you what playing with fire is - blundering into Northern Ireland with a policy which is clueless and deluded with a can of petrol and a box of matches in the other hand"

At least someone gets it, and is speaking it too.

lonelyplanetmum · 02/05/2018 17:41

Bigchoc-I've been surprised all along that the Conservatives are pushing for Brexit, especially a hard one.It is a huge risk..

But it's a risk for the country, less of a personal one if you have a financial cushion.

I think that 2003 review of decades of research on conservative people and their social views linked to up thread and which RTB mentioned before really nails it. People embrace political conservatism (at least in part) because it serves to reduce fear and anxiety, which they are more prone to. In this case it was a fear of many things, immigration, security, terrorism, growing old etc all illogically lumped together which trumped economic fears.

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2018 17:45

In this case it was a fear of many things, immigration, security, terrorism, growing old etc all illogically lumped together which trumped economic fears

What economic fears? A significant proportion of Leave voters do not have economic fears because they are no longer earners and have paid off their mortgage.

There's the issue right there.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 02/05/2018 18:18

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
1. What did the meeting achieve this afternoon? Hear PM has asked for 'revised proposals' further work on both options, No 10 sources suggest both still on the table but...
2. Also being told customs partnership model was rejected and won't go back full cabinet, suggested Williamson and Javid both spoke against it outlining 'significant' and 'grave concerns'
3. So already different versions out there of what happened at the meeting - but certainly the proposals as they currently exist are not viable with Number 10 agreeing they need more work

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 02/05/2018 18:22

Robert Peston @ peston
So chief whip has been co-opted on to Brexit war cabinet - which is why there is total deadlock on way forward for customs. Dead heat in PM sounding of opinion!

Kevin Schofield @ polhomeeditor
As the Brexit war Cabinet breaks up without agreement, Theresa May goes back to the drawing board. Five months before we’re meant to have a withdrawal agreement. Tick tock tick tock ...

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 02/05/2018 18:43

The Lords are currently voting on the Lord Pattern NI Good Friday Amendment.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 02/05/2018 18:56

Esther Webber @estwebber
Govt defeat: Peers vote 309 to 242 for Lord Patten's amendment requiring ministers to act in a way that is compatible with the 1998 Northern Ireland Act and the Belfast principles

10th Defeat

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 02/05/2018 19:06

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
Lots of noise around on #Brexit and customs today. The 'war' cabinet couldn't make decision. Here's what I know from sources in London, Dublin and Brussels. /1
The Olly Robbins presentation to cabinet heavily favoured the idea of a 'customs partnership' over a 'streamlined' or 'MaxFac' solution - still basically the two options outlined in the August customs paper here, and regurgitated at Mansion House /2

Even though the CP has been dismissed as 'magical thinking' etc, the govt is not giving up on the idea.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/637748/Future_customs_arrangements_-_a_future_partnership_paper.pdf
Why? Because, if it worked, it's the only way to get an All-UK solution on customs, avoid a goods border in Irish Sea and preserve some independent trade policy /3
Can it really work? It was dismissed by EU last month for three reasons

a) UK as 3rd country can't be trusted to collect tariffs for EU
b) puts burden on business
c) too expensive and hard for EU own customs machinery.

So why would they accept it now?/4
Well, per source, next time it is presented (IF cabinet agrees to it) it will look more "realistic" to the EU.

What does that mean? Good question.

Per industry source, the UKG has been testing it with some companies in NI. I don't know which. Am told they signed NDAs. /5
Perhaps the men from McKinsey did/can make it work?

But even if the tech did work, it would require UK to subscribed to a lot of ECJ oversight to fix objection a) above. And maybe other intrusive elements, like EU spot checks. Could cost too. /6
It still all seems pretty far-fetched as @jl_owen notes here for Institute for govt.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/government-customs-proposals-do-not-solve-problem

But still interesting that serious people are trying to make it work - it's not just Theresa May delusion, apparently. /7
Part of the problem is to consider the alternative.

The ERG do a pretty good job of demolishing the CP in their 30-page report.

It won't be ready til 2023 and will require such levels of alignment, the UK ends up in what looks very much like vassalage /8
Where ERG and @JacobReesMogg fall down hopelessly is in describing the value of a "MaxFac" as part of a basic FTA, where UK is outside Customs Union, when UK economy is reliant on services.

This para almost admits as much. /9

Westministenders: Amber Alert
OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 02/05/2018 19:07

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
309 Content, 242 Not content: Majority 67...
Victory for Patten Amendment - will now be voted on in Commons, similar amendment on Northern Ireland was withdrawn in Commons in December after Government appealed not to oblige it to be seen to vote against GFA

Oh. Oops.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 02/05/2018 19:07

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Brexiters claim they have won the argument in subcommittee, with a majority in favour of “maximum facilitation” model - that is deemed to be difficult for N Ireland border. New Home Sec Javid definitely pro Max fac not Customs partnership...but both options may also be “evolving”

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 02/05/2018 19:09

Max Fac doesn't work for the DUP.
They would rather stay in the customs union.

And the Lords just voted for the Good Friday Agreement to be maintained and Max Fac is incompatible with that.

Oh dear. Oh dear.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 02/05/2018 19:10

Commons currently voting on Labours attempt to get the Windrush documents from the Home Office.

Result due in 5 mins.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 02/05/2018 19:15

CA 'shutting down'. How can a shell company close?

www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/cambridge-analytica-shutting-down-closing-uk-us-facebook-data-scandal-controversy-a8333496.html

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 02/05/2018 19:17

Government comfortably defeat the windrush motion (Looks like someone on the opposition benches abstained).

OP posts:
prettybird · 02/05/2018 19:29

That's a shame (and shameful by those that abstained Hmm).

Looks like in the quest for answers the onus is back on the Home Affairs Select Committee and/or the review on the Windrush Scandal that is due to report before the summer recess. It speaks volumes that I have more confidence in the former getting meaningful results than the latter.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 02/05/2018 19:37

Emerdata was established earlier this year with all the main people involved in Cambridge analytica

amp.businessinsider.com/cambridge-analytica-executives-and-mercer-family-launch-emerdata-2018-3

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2018 19:38

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
The consensus from both sides of the SN cabinet subcommittee seems to be that the customs partnership - which TM threw her personal authority behind - is down but not (as some claim) out.

Figures from both sides also agree they don’t know what happens next...

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 02/05/2018 19:39

David Carroll @profcarroll
SCL is apparently shutting down also but will remain subject of the @ICOnews investigation. Follow @issielapowsky’s coverage.

OP posts:
OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 02/05/2018 22:20

YouGov
‏*@YouGov*
Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?
Theresa May 37%
Jeremy Corbyn 27%
Don't know 36%
yougov.co.uk/news/2018/05/02/voting-intention-conservatives-42-labour-38-30-apr/

Westministenders: Amber Alert
BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2018 22:35

West Tyrone by-election is tomorrow

It was caused by the resignation of the Sinn Fein MP, after he released a dreadful video on social media, apparently mocking the "Kingsmill Massacre" of Protestant civilians on its anniversary.
Public reaction was so outraged that Sinn Fein had to disown him.

SF won just over 50% of the votes in this seat at the last GE, nearly double the DUP vote.
Even after the scandal and even in a by-election, SF remain favourites,
but an upset would mean another DUP MP

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2018 22:38

I honestly don't want to know the results tomorrow of the locals

One or other of them will being spinning it in some bullshit fashion.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2018 22:41

Car tech firm Aptiv moving global HQ from UK to Dublin

Probably not directly caused by Brexit
Whatever the combination of reasons, it does show that the RoI is becoming more attractive to high tech firms than the UK

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0502/959770-aptiv-moving-to-dublin/

Technology company Aptiv has said it is moving its global headquarters from the UK to Dublin.
The self-driving and connected car tech company has already recruited 150 people in IT, manufacturing, supply chain, finance, treasury and legal roles here.
Aptiv said it plans to grow its Irish workforce to 250 by the end of 2018 and will move into its new offices on Hanover Quay in Dublin city centre by the middle of the year.

Aptiv's technology is used in the development of autonomous vehicles and it focuses on developing active safety systems, electrical architecture, connected services and software necessary for automated driving.

Somerville · 02/05/2018 22:51

an upset would mean another DUP MP

I have lots of concerns at the moment, but this is not one of them. West Tyrone is about 70% Catholic.

Swipe left for the next trending thread