Westministenders: Amber Alert

[RedToothBrush]

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

The prevalent attitude here (South East Tory shire) is that they don't like foreigners, Scots, Irish, Welsh, northerners or anyone from Croydon! Why do these people even want a United Kingdom?

In a nutshell, that explains May and her hostile environment - it's just part of that sort of Tory's DNA.

Does anyone else think like me? Max Fac - Max Factor - cosmetic.

For years I was keen to have the EU referendum - I was fed up with all the sniping.

Now, I want JRM and chums to go nuclear. We need a bomb to remove the (entirely self constructed) roadblock that has paralysed UK politics. I can't see my final years being anything like what I was expecting, so am starting to feel there's nothing to lose.

Or is that just me ?

What would really hammer the UK economy is non-tariff barriers

Uk manufacturing exports
Every aspect of every component in a widget has regulations & standards that must be fulfilled, depending on the type of goods:

e.g. certification of every product from cars to small gadgets - UK certification will no longer be valid,
detailled documentation about
additives in plastic coating, tolerances in machining, durability, recyclability (environmental rules), behaviour under different temperature and humidity, impact safety ....

Uk farming / agricultural exports:

Export to the EU of "animals, germinal products and products of animal origin from third countries", in Regulation (EU) 2016/429 on transmissible animal diseases and animal health.
Article 229 specifies the 5 requirements that must be satisfied before animals and animals products can be allowed entry into the EU from 3rd countries,
i.e. the UK, post-Brexit.

1. goods must come from a country officially listed as permitted to export the relevant categories;
2. they must come from establishments which are approved and listed;
3. they must comply with all relevant animal health requirements laid down by the EU
4. they must be accompanied by animal health certificates and by other declarations and documents as required.
5. the consignments must be presented to a Border Inspection Post (BIP) / Border Control Post (BCP), where they must pass inspection. The fees due must be paid, the "Common Health Entry Documents" endorsed, then the goods must be presented for customs clearance.

Essential Uk Imports
For Uk manufacturers: JIT components, raw materials etc

Added to this, 30 % of all Uk food is imported from the EU
whereas they can, and will, easily replace Uk food

Would the UK govt really stop supermarket shelves being restocked, just to retaliate against the EU?
What would the govt tell people when they go hungry?

Now, I want JRM and chums to go nuclear.

A part of me does, but it would inflict huge damage on the UK. This would would take at least a generation to resolve, and would include the probable break up of the UK. Still if it smashed the current incarnation of both the Tory and to a lesser extent the Labour parties, then it would not be all bad.

Can't scan it, but Private Eyes a good'un ...

Welcome to the Go-Home Office ...

Jeremy Hunt to make a statement in HoC after PMQ around 12.30

Kate McCann @ katemccann
NEW: Hearing Jeremy Hunt will announce independent inquiry into NHS breast cancer screening after PMQs. Sources tell me hundreds of thousands of women weren't invited for screening because of a mistake and hundreds have since developed cancer.

LOOK. A NEW SCANDAL.
Its almost as if someone could predict there would be a new scandal every other week.

(Looks at the OP. sighs)

This would would take at least a generation to resolve,

As will any actions taken now. That's beyond my life, so fuck it. Just do it now.

** I am sure the breast screening is serious but the timing seems kind of squirelly.

Re: People seem to be illogically scared of foreigners and want to keep them well away from their homesteads.

I think RTB hit the nail on the head when she referred to this research linked to below. I don't want to pigeon hole all Tories but I do think influences of fear was very significant in the referendum and that dictates views of solutions now too.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/psychological-differences-between-conservatives-and-liberals-2018-2/#being-scared-can-make-you-more-conservative-1

"A 2003 review of decades of research on conservative people suggested that their social views help ....manage uncertainty and fear.

People embrace political conservatism (at least in part) because it serves to reduce fear, anxiety, and uncertainty; to avoid change, disruption, and ambiguity; and to explain, order, and justify inequality among groups and individuals"

There's a house up from me that's absolutely plastered in Tory local election placards about 6 of them. I saw the owner go and come back from a very short dog walk ( the walk was short not the dog!). When she returned she rushed in and I could hear her house alarm beeping etc.

I immediately thought of the psychological profiling of voters RTB linked to a while back. I did ponder if some one who doesn't leave their house alarm off for 15 minutes is more likely to be motivated by fear in many aspects of life.

Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
NEW: Big voting clash in the Commons this afternoon as gvt seeks to stop Labour forcing disclosure of Windrush documentation 2010-2018.

Emails reveal @JulianSmithUK accuse Labour of an “abuse” of power and insisting a 3 line whip

This is a key test of @JulianSmithUK and the Tory whips operation. If they mess this up there will be even more concern in No10 about potential customs union votes in coming weeks

It might be - it might be - that a few brexiteers decide they want to teach the whips office a lesson about where the balance of power lies

The whips office currently warning thy expect to lose in a customs union vote at hands of Tory rebels

Local Election predictions:

Elections Etc @ Electionsetc
Correction: Forecasting Local Election Seat Gains/Losses 2018:
Con +8, Lab +131, LD -83
electionsetc.com/2018/05/02/forecasting-local-election-seat-gains-losses-2018/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

That's beyond my life, so fuck it.
Mine too, unless I live into my hundreds, and even then it's touch and go.

There seems to be a total lack of self awareness from the Conservatives as to why Labour are supposedly mis-using the "humble address" process

If they didn't choose to abstain on Labour motions and make them non-binding and try to turn the House of Commons into a rubber stamp/government dictatorship then Labour wouldn't need to use the humble address process.

Paul Waugh @ paulwaugh
Very significant intervention from no10 on Bercow allegations. PM spokesman says PM thinks "the latest allegations are concerning + shd be properly investigated". Adds "it's a matter for Parliament to decide" how.

Nicholas Soames @ nsoames
Govt shld consider taking Immigration from Home Office and create new Department to deal with backlog and to settle a new effective robust system to deliver the policies we need as a confident open economy after Brexit
#wholenewsetupneeded

Tom Newton Dunn @ tnewtondunn
I’ve heard this view from a growing number of Tory MPs. With huge extra Brexit tasks looking daunting, the logic for a separate immigration ministry becoming irrefutable. The Home Office has been a shambles for 20 years.

House of Fraser in trouble ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43973149

That's some massive retail space to become vacant. Shame we've nailed the housing crisis, otherwise it could be used ....

James Durridge @ jamesdurridge
#Southend Conservatives ready for action #torypowerstance #ToryCanvass

#Southend Conservatives

If you wanted to take the piss out of the conservatives being a bastion of white, male aged privilege you could not have chosen a better picture.

In fact if you had posed that picture to make that point, you'd be accused of hyperbole.

Sam Coates Times @ samcoatestimes
Tory whips starting to look nervous about tonight’s vote. All Tory MPs on the estate told to declare themselves to their whip

Tic Toc tic toc

Remember, on this issue you are unlikely to have Labour rebels and all other parties likely to follow Labour.

That means that the needs to be LESS tory rebels than for Brexit voting (12 rebels for brexit voting is sufficient to cause a problem).

Instead assuming all MPs vote, that means 7 votes against May from Tories (or indeed the DUP), would mean a government defeat.

It seems there is flexing of muscles on this issue, in order to get leverage on the upcoming customs union votes.

@SamCoatesTimes
Tory whips starting to look nervous about tonight’s vote. All Tory MPs on the estate told to declare themselves to their whip

Tic Toc tic toc

bigchoc : fine, humane speech by one of our best politicians atm. Lammy. (To counter the facile racist lord's tweet on Varadkar yesterday)
twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/991025253831847936

X post

woman Lammy is one of the few decent politicians around
imo, we should look at our own seat, whether local gov or GE
and if the sítting candidate has done a good job and votes independently like a decent human being, then vote according to the individual rather than the party.

All parties have too many shits in them to earn an automatic vote

the sítting candidate has done a good job

Our Tories have, to be fair (which is why I have voted for them previously). But they managed to piss me off over a local issue.

In locals voting according to the individual rather than the party is normally a good rule of thumb. Not this time though surely?

If you want to send a message over Brexit, you vote for the most anti Brexit candidate available.

One of our LibDem prospective councillor called around today , he was leafleting. I have to say he was lovely, and was very genuinely pro EU.

lonely I've been surprised all along that the Conservatives are pushing for Brexit, especially a hard one.
It is a huge risk, a leap into the dark - maybe off the cliff - tearing up the last 45 years of govt economic strategy, both parties

I can only assume that Conservative voters just haven't realised that trying to turn back the clock won't bring back the country of their youth, but will just create a car crash whose damage is are likely to last decades

I can understand Corbyn supporting Brexit, also the disaster capitalists, because they both need chaos to fulfill their end goals.
Also those at the bottom of the economic heap, desperate for any change and assuming - wrongly ! - that things can't get worse for them

Conservative MPs realise - dimly in most cases ! - that Brexit means radical economic & trading change; hence why they are heavily Remain
and probably many of those who do support Brexit mase the cynical decision to put their career as an MP before the good of their constituents and the country