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Brexit

Westministenders: Amber Alert

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2018 19:25

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

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Thread gallery
51
RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 22:39

Ft on the doctor story

amp.ft.com/content/ab8a2cce-4d5b-11e8-97e4-13afc22d86d4?__twitter_impression=true
May rebuffed Rudd’s pleas for NHS doctors’ visa exemptions
Former home secretary had been urging Downing St for months to relax rules

However, it was reported that Amber Rudd, who quit as home secretary on Sunday night, had for several months been urging the prime minister to relax visa rules for NHS employees, with the backing of Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary, only to be over-ruled by Downing Street.

It has emerged that she even went further, calling unsuccessfully for doctors to be excluded altogether from the “Tier 2” visa scheme covering highly-skilled workers

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SusanWalker · 01/05/2018 22:42

I expect we'll need our imagination. It'll give us something to do if we run out of power and we haven't set up any agreements to borrow some from the EU. After all who needs the Internet or television?

lonelyplanetmum · 01/05/2018 22:48

Never has the phrase 'you and whose army' been more appropriate.

It always fascinates me how Tories in particular still behave as if we rule the waves (and air and sea).

Don’t they remember their own drastic Strategic Defence and Security Review in 2010? In January this year they were again considering massive further cuts to all three arms of the forces.

A quick google reveals that •British Army-Personnel reduced by 7,000 by 2015.
•Royal Airforce -Personnel be reduced by 5,000 by 2015.
Royal Navy -Personnel be reduced by 5,000 by 2015

I always assumed hat’s why we suddenly got those ads recruiting reservists on the radio.

Other stuff included the £3.2 billion,Nimrod maritime patrol aircraft project being scrapped.
Challenger 2 tanks to be cut by 40% . AS90 self-propelled heavy artillery guns to be cut by 35%.

Our great ability to go it alone is nonsense-all just symptomatic of that nostalgic empire inspired hubris.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/18/armed-forces-facing-biggest-shortfall-in-staff-for-a-decade-report

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/proposed-defence-cuts-signal-decline-british-global-capability/

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/06/brexit-undermining-uk-armed-forces-defence-expert-warns

RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 22:48

Emily m @
This is an extraordinary moment. A private secretary breaking his NDA to report bullying in the commons on TV #newsnight now

Lucinda Day @ lucindacday
‘’I signed a cover up... and in a cynical way, I’d been paid to do it. That’s not a good feeling.’’ On #Newsnight NOW, John Bercow’s former private secretary breaks his silence on his experience of Westminster bullying @xtophercook #Newsnight

Get ready for a new speaker...

Today was interesting too. The speaker used his discretion to refuse to allow the BVI amendment after the deadline. It came up in a point of order. This has really hurt the government. His judgement is therefore significant and influential in how things go in the Commons.

If he stood down as speaker would he trigger a by election? Or would he stay an MP. This poses an interesting prospect. He was a blue but many feel he crossed the floor and turned red. But under Corbyn?

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lonelyplanetmum · 01/05/2018 22:50

And the next elections are 2022 - do they really think allowing this is the best short term policy to get them reelected?

Yes because sadly the polls are still showing them in the lead. Hopefully Thursday will be an alarm call?

RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 22:52

Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
great load of tension over the “Customs Partnership” tonight, with Cabinet set to discuss tomorrow... Brexiters have been briefing against for two weeks, because they think its a Trojan horse for a customs union. Big industry against for opposite reason - it isn’t one.

What we know: that McKinseys commissioned to do study into this option that variously involves UK tax authority collecting tariffs for EU and rebating businesses where tariffs are differently depending on where products go - replaces border trade friction with consumer friction

Customs Partnership.

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RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 23:01

Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
General perception is that the main thing going for it is that it basically solves Northern Ireland problem in theory... unlike the other Max Fac “Agreement” option which does require borders... but only if EU agrees

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lonelyplanetmum · 01/05/2018 23:03

They're far more afraid of cancelling Brexit and losing power right now - than they are of crashing the country and bringing it to it;s knees for the next few generations - in a couple of years time.

This gave me a new half formulated thought...about power. I'd always thought politicians and power was kind of an odd mix ,some wanting to do good, bracketing quietly in their constituency, others craving that celebrity presence on the World stage. For some the goal is to be like Farage and his golden lift Trump photo. The goal being to be an international states person . Sort of like once you're a chart success here, you aren't satisfied until you target the American music scene.

However the way things are, our politicians are an irrelevant laughing stock globally and likely to remain so.

So the short term focus on 'power right now' is completely internal. It's actually on a very small minded and insular path. If the Goves, Rees Moggs , Pfeffel's etc are ultimately successful that would only be in having a presence here. So their beliefs have limited their potential stage...

Waffling now...

lonelyplanetmum · 01/05/2018 23:03

Beavering not bracketing

lonelyplanetmum · 01/05/2018 23:23

On McKinsey's advice concerning a customs partnership.. there are numerous publications on their website ( example below) which probably reflect some of the advice they have been giving the govt.

www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/europe/productivity-the-route-to-brexit-success

RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 23:33

Charles Tannock @ charlestannock
EU unlikely to farm out its Common Commercial Policy enforcement to a non EU member state. UK's history of compliance with all EU Customs regulations as a member state has been problematic so can't see the trust to extend this beyond the 21 months Brexit transitional period

Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
One leading Brexiter MP tells me: “Customs Partnership is not viable at all. I understand she’s [PM] made her mind up & wants to continue with that concept. She won’t have our support with that”.

It was listed as the Number 2 option in the Customs future partnership paper last summer, but seemed to be promoted to Number 1 at Mansion House speech, I asked the PM if it was her preferred option, and she did not answer

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RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 23:37

Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
also pointed out to the PM at Mansion House that David Davis had referred to the Customs Partnership as “blue skies thinking”... DD said to me afterwards that is not necessarily pejorative

Is it just me who thinks may could end up pissing off both the brexiteers and the rebels on this one leading to both refusing to support it?

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lonelyplanetmum · 01/05/2018 23:39

Couldn't a customs partnership somehow morph into the name for BINO though?

Also I hadn't realised that the Mail on Sunday ( ok to click on critical articles) exposed the Legatum and Russian connection last November.

www.dailymail.co.uk/~/article-5117547/index.html

SwedishEdith · 01/05/2018 23:47

Mail on Sunday is pro-Remain (as is Rothermere, allegedly). It's weirdy Dacre who's the Leaver (and the D Mail's readership, of course).

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2018 00:12

Darth Dacre doesn't seem a happy bunny

Westministenders: Amber Alert
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BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2018 00:20

_ (paywall) Government at risk of 'collapse' as May warned by 60 Tory MPs Brexit customs partnership will sink her_

DT is closer to the Tory Party murky machinations than the Heil

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/01/government-risk-collapse-may-warned-60-tory-mps-brexit-customs/

Theresa May has been warned her government will "collapse" if she does not abandon plans for a post-Brexit customs partnership with the EU.

Sixty eurosceptic Tory MPs from the European Research Group, led by Jacob Rees-Mogg,
have sent the Prime Minister a 30 page report detailing their opposition to the plan.

Number 10 have been directly warned in correspondence that accepting a customs partnership will lead to a "collapse" of the government
because it would mean Mrs May cannot deliver a clean break from the EU and would lose the support of Brexiteers.

Sources have told the Telegraph that the Tory MPs will consider withdrawing support for Government Bills in Parliament,
which would lead to legislative paralysis and put Mrs May’s future as leader in doubt.

The threat of rebellion grew when David Davis wrote to Mrs May in recent days arguing “strongly” against the idea.

One ERG source said: “We have swallowed everything so far – but this is it. If they don’t have confidence in Brexit we don’t have confidence in them.
The Prime Minister will not have a majority if she does not kill off the NCP [New Customs Partnership].”

Mr Rees-Mogg added: < is this letting slip he is the "ERG source" ? Grin>

“The customs partnership is incompatible with the Conservative party manifesto.”

A copy of the report, obtained by The Daily Telegraph, dismantles the argument for a customs partnership which Brexiteers fear will keep Britain effectively in a customs union with the European Union after the UK leaves in March next year.

On Tuesday, Liam Fox warned he could quit as Trade Secretary if Mrs May tried to keep Britain tied to the customs union after Brexit.

The ERG has chosen to speak out now after supporting Mrs May over previous concessions to the EU,
including the £38billion bill to leave the EU,
as well as surrendering control over fisheries
and allowing freedom of movement during the transition period until the end of 2020.

A mass meeting of ERG members has now been called for Tuesday next week
– the day the full Cabinet is expected sign off on the deal hammered out today by the Brexit sub-committee.

Iain Duncan-Smith, the former Tory leader, said opting for the partnership would leave the Government “bogged down in a complete and total mess”.
< would we notice the difference ? Hmm
… omitted several lines of IDs ravings - Nurse ! he's getting worse …

The report was personally handed to Mrs May last week by Tory MPs
and sent to Sir Jeremy Heywood, the Cabinet secretary, Gavin Barwell, Mrs May’s chief of staff, and Julian Smith, the Chief Whip, on Sunday.

The document, titled “Memorandum – the New Customs Partnership”, sets out a series of reasons why the Government should not accept it as a way to trade with the EU after Brexit.
< but main one is: "cos we'll bring you down (if they don't bottle it yet again) >

BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2018 00:36

(paywall) Brexit was meant to be a moment of renewal, but it's been turned into a morale-sapping mess

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/01/brexit-meant-moment-renewal-turned-morale-sapping-mess/

It is hard to recall a more downbeat time in the national demeanour.
Brexit has been turned into an enervating, morale-sapping exercise in making the best of a bad job.

What should be a moment of renewal and optimism Hmm has been reduced to a barely comprehensible debate over various forms of customs arrangements.

Here is the great divide:
do you favour the New Customs Partnership (NCP) approach (closet Remainer);
or are you a “highly streamlined, technology-based customs arrangement” supporter (true Brexiteer)?

With less than a year to go to the official date for leaving the EU,
our government is locked in an argument
that makes Swift’s satirical war between the Big Endians and the Little Endians over how to break an egg look positively sane.Grin

lonelyplanetmum · 02/05/2018 06:48

The Observer, Andrew Rawnsley comment from Sunday is a good nutshell summary, don't think that it's already been posted.

" The days when Theresa May could muddle through Brexit, keeping her party’s hard Brexiters and unreconciled remainers together, are fast running out:

The hard Brexiters are clearly fearful that Britain will end up in a customs union, or something very similar by a slightly different name. So they are trying to put a gun to the prime minister’s head by predicting that it will trigger cabinet resignations, which I am pretty sure it would, and a full-scale Tory civil war, which would blow away her premiership. They menace her with a confidence vote in her leadership … which would not necessarily remove her as prime minister, but is not a prospect she wants to face, which is why they make the threat. May has not found an answer to this crunch other than to try to delay it. The government has stalled a chunk of the withdrawal legislation to try to swerve the moment of truth, but it won’t be able to duck a binding vote for ever. The great rupture of the Tory party over Brexit cannot be avoided indefinitely. What might look to some like cunning cleverness is, on closer inspection, really an exercise in trying to postpone the inevitable while desperately hoping that something will turn up."

It's just so acutely selfish. The great schism in the Tory party infects everything. It led to Cameron snapping and calling the referendum in the first bloody place. It's still there unresolved, not even a plaster stretched over their great wound. That rupture between them caused the referendum and is still there preventing any attempts at (inadequate) solutions.

AgnesSkinner · 02/05/2018 07:08

A heads up: Rees-Smug will be interviewed by Humphyrs on R4 Today programme at 8:10.

Just so that you can take any blood pressure medication in advance and remove any breakable objects from the vicinity.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2018 07:17

The Tory schism
prevented planning before the referendum
prevented a proper Remain campaign - Cameron blocked any criticism of Tory Leave figure
prevented consideration of the realistic options for Brexit, i.e. those the EU could accept which wouldn't damage the Single Market
prevented serious negotiations to get the best possible deal
prevented realistic planning for post-Brexit

will make the country poorer as more business eventually realise the government is paralysed and hence move out

  • those who don't realise will make losses, or even go broke

The most disgraceful example of party before country

The party that claims to be the most business-oriented and patriotic is recklessly risking grave damage to the country and hardship for ordinary people
(but the disaster capitalists will make a killing out of looting

lonelyplanetmum · 02/05/2018 07:30

will make the country poorer as more business eventually realise the government is paralysed and hence move out

This is already happening day after day there's another report of a business closure or departure.

Parallels can be drawn with a normal plc.An unhealable management rupture would lead to the company's downfall, unless the shareholders act. The problem is the shareholders (electorate) don't recognise the insuperable effects of the management schism.

We need to withdraw Article 50 saying it's too hard for now and we have domestic problems to sort first. Labour and Tory's then need to split into smaller new parties. We need to push through PR. Also can do away with the two sides of the H of C baying at each other. Then create a round collegiate house of commons with smaller parties negotiating, finding compromise, debate and co operation.
Politics was never as broken as it is now and the Tory polarisation is a rotten root cause.

Peregrina · 02/05/2018 07:53

I wish May would say to the ERG people 'Go on then, put up or shut up', and mean it! While quietly telling herself that if she has to quit as PM, 'so be it'.

Then create a round collegiate house of commons with smaller parties negotiating, finding compromise, debate and co operation.

I wish they would. The ideal time would be to start planning now, since they have to move out for refurbishment.

lonelyplanetmum · 02/05/2018 07:53

Rees Mogg gets a lot of airtime.. he's the new quintessential Farrage.

Peregrina · 02/05/2018 07:54

The party that claims to be the most business-oriented and patriotic is recklessly risking grave damage to the country and hardship for ordinary people

I get the impression that the members of the Tory party don't realise how dysfunctional their party has become.

BigChocFrenzy · 02/05/2018 08:22

Unfortunately, the usual alternative looks no better, maybe even more chaotic and divided:

The Official Opposition is in disarray, with some very nasty anti-semitic and anti-women strains running through it
with a totally unfit Opposition Leader - whom most of his MPs think unfit too - surrounded by an unpleasant cabal

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