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Brexit

Westministenders: Amber Alert

977 replies

RedToothBrush · 29/04/2018 19:25

The coming week is a busy one.

First on the menu is the fate of Amber Rudd, who after her long awaited fifth apology and denial that she saw a memo with targets on (and Brandon Lewis took the responsibility for her) ANOTHER leak has come out of a letter from her to the PM, talking about, you've guessed it Home Office targets.

She is to give a speech to the HoC on Monday. After avoiding the chop/resignation on Friday and receiving the PM's kiss of death with a "The Home Secretary has my full confidence" statement, rumours are most definitely not going away about her resignation.

If this happens, she is almost certain to go to the Naughty Corner to add to May's woes with the other rebels. This is not the week that May will appreciate it.

Watch out for Sajid Javid making more unsubtle hints that he wants the job and how it will be great PR for the party.

The EU withdrawal Bill is in the HoL again tomorrow. Last week it suffered numerous government defeats relating to the Customs Union and the limiting of Henry VIII powers. With the LDs and Labour control most of the house and together with cross benchers and the (to date no less than 17) Conservative Rebels, expect more defeats and amendments to be sent back to the Commons.

Today there is an amendment tabled by Viscount Hailsham (ex-MP Douglas Hogg) with Labour and Lib Dem support. It is being touted as a 'Lords Veto' to block Brexit by some, but is about making sure the government is held to account and does not overstep its powers by not consulting with parliament over final terms. It would in effect strengthen the power of the House of Commons (rather than the Lords) to influence the Withdrawal Bill.

So its quite a big and significant one.

If this wasn't enough, there is a key crucial vote over the Customs Union. Its been touted as Schrodinger's confidence vote. Its not the final vote on the matter (that's later in May) nor is a true confidence vote due to the Fixed Parliament Act, but at the same time it is a real test of May's commitment to leaving the Custom's Union and a real test of the resolve of the rebels. Last week several Conservatives who previously had not rebelled were dropping large hints they would, plus there is the fate of Rudd, who if she wants a future as an MP will find it difficult not to rebel due to her constituency being hugely remain and only having a majority of 300.

If May fails to follow through and bows to pressure from the rebels, Johnson and Davis have threatened to resign and there is some suggestion that letters will go to the 1922 Committee's Graham Brady.

May also has been put under significant pressure by Brexiteers to sack civil servant Ollie Robbins from the Cabinet Office (who has effectively taken over Brexit negotiations from Davis) because he's too Remainy got his hands tied with no where to go because reality.

Other things on the cards:
Tuesday: The Sanctions and Money Laundering Bill is back in the Commons. It might be worth a look at what goes on there (and who takes part).
Wednesday: Labour's Opposition Bill is about Windrush. Expect it to be last minute campaigning for the local elections every bit as much as about the scandal.
The Withdrawal Bill is in the Lords again.
Thursday: We get to listen to David Davis (if he hasn't resigned) making excuses in the HoC whilst in the Lords there is a debate on 'Brexit: Sanctions Policy' so another chance for them to point out great big wacking holes in government Brexit Policy.

Thursday is also the day of the Local Elections, so although Parliament adjourns on Thursday, we have a full day of spin on how Labour 'won' and are going plant magic money trees everywhere (to replace the ones they cut down in Sheffield no doubt) or how the campaign for bins now means that the Tories now have a 'mandate to leave the customs union'. Joy.

Also on the radar are sexual misconduct allegations against Labour's John Woodcock (the much hated by the left John Woodcock) and Labour and the expulsion of Marc Wadworth in the midst of the anti-Semitism row and threats the grass roots will revolt over it. Tuesday is also MayDay (a chequered day in Labour's history) and a mass resignation from the Labour Party by women is planned.

And I'm definitely not betting against there being a likely to be another scandal that rears its head because that's just British Politics at the moment.

But GOOD NEWS.

Eurovision starts next week!
(Israel have to be my fav - and are favs to win - but I do like our entry. Though this year looks to be a good year and our unashamed goodbye to the EU probably will be lost amongst them unless she pulls a blinder).

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Thread gallery
51
DGRossetti · 01/05/2018 16:43

David Davis is in front of the Brexit Select Committee at the moment.

So I can go and put the washing out then. Get more sense from birdsong.

RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 16:51

Esther Webber @estwebber
Oh God it's happening again. A minister is repeating a Sajid Javid statement word for word in the Lords - therefore Baroness Williams ends up saying "my parents came from the Commonwealth in the 1960s"

Esther Webber @estwebber
you think they'd be wise to this...

Esther Webber @estwebber
When repeating the statement word-for-word from the Commons goes wrong... Lord Bourne (Sajid Javid's junior in the Lords) refers to his mother struggling to learn English after moving here from Pakistan
15 Mar 2018

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RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 16:54

Ian Dunt is watching David Davis so none of us have to see his face:

Ian Dunt @IanDunt
Can you contain your excitement, people? Can you fuck.

DD says outstanding areas are N.Ireland, some remaining separation issues and governance of the agreement (ie is the ECJ involved).
On N.Ireland: We stand by joint report but don't agree with their interpretation of that - "a division of the kingdom". This is a nonsense and disingenuous analysis of their position but whatever.

Been a while since I watched him do this. I forgot how weird and inconsistent I find his decision to take off his glasses.

DD: Withdrawal agreement must take into account the future trade deal - says it needs to be "pretty substantive".

DD very relaxed. And as ever looks like's recovering from brandy ingested while jogging

How do you imagine intractable disputes being resolved (this is for trade, European Arrest Warrant and civil liberties etc)?
DD: Forum will depend on where situation arises. Ie here if that's where the data is gathered.

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RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 16:58

Ian Dunt @IanDunt
What about a quasi court for agencies? EUratom, aviation etc?
DD says he wants to stay in Easa. Cites Swiss assoc. membership. Tested in Swiss court. Admits we'll struggle to negotiate that.

DD sounds like he might want to fight for British cits rights to free movement a little harder than he has done so far. This is key for many Brits in EU, but they were denied meetings with him and govt failed to secure it.

Annoyingly he says he did not "realise until recently" that this affected the retirement community. he would have realised earlier if he had bothered to hold a bloody meeting with the Brits affected.

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DGRossetti · 01/05/2018 16:59

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-refused-to-budge-on-quotas-for-foreign-medics-after-cabinet-ministers-pleas-for-more-a3828141.html

Theresa May faces a new immigration crisis after it emerged that she overruled Cabinet ministers pleading for more doctors from overseas to fill empty NHS posts.

At least three government departments lobbied for a relaxation of visa rules to let in desperately needed doctors as well as specialist staff sought by businesses, the Evening Standard has learned.

The issue erupted on Friday when several NHS trusts went public about fears that patient safety was being put at risk by doctor shortages.

The crisis came as then home secretary Amber Rudd was fighting for her political life over the Windrush scandal — but No 10’s hard line meant her hands were tied.

(contd)

If Napoleon and Hitler taught us one thing, it's that you can't fight a war on two fronts ....

RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 17:03

Tony Connelly @tconnellyRTE
Davis: we could well be looking at multiple dispute resolution mechanism.
Davis: Nothing keeps me awake at night, I can tell you
Davis: Ireland looked like it was almost resolved in the latter part of last year
Davis: We'll have a tustle over financial services and services more generally. Professional qualifications will be an issue.
Davis: We are starting the negotiations on the future relationship right now. But the signature of the future framework treaty will happen after March because we won't be a third country till then. I hope to conclude the negotiations by then - then sign after.
Davis: Brexit is not the priority of the vast majority of the 27 as it is here.

Ian Dunt @IanDunt
Spoke volumes that govt refused to guarantee EU citizen rights in order to secure reciprocal rights for Brits in EU, but then seemed utterly uninterested when the latter group tried to tell govt what they needed.
Anyway.
I understand from my contact in the cabinet of a key EU politician that the UK Government was offered this by the EU but showed no interest in taking it up.

DD says we "absolutely" must have ratification of trade agreement done by end of transition in Dec 2020. He has almost no chance of achieving this but when did accuracy matter in this shitballoon.

DD says Netherlands in a really weird way.
Like they are the Lands of the Nether people.

"Part of my job is to make sure each individual country is aware of its interest in Brexit." Christ. I'm so glad I cant see the meetings between DD and other countries. Be fucking mortified.

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RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 17:07

So far, its going well.
If you had predicted yet another Davis car crash of irresponsibility

Ian Dunt @IanDunt
DD reminded that he is talking nonsense. He said earlier MPs would need details of trade deal cos of all the money we;re spending as part of it. He's told that money relates to current financial period, not the FTA. He instantly gives in.
He is now pressed on it - there's no way to use it as leverage, is there? DD: "We haven't yet concluded the legal text. It depends on what conditionalities are in it."

Tony Connelly @tconnellyRTE
Davis: there are countries, or even provinces, for whom Brexit is of existential importants. The Benelux countries for example. A hard brexit wd affect their economies by 3-4pc.
Davis: Bavaria has an enormous trade with us, whether BMWs, Airbuses or agricultural products. It's part of my task to ensure that each country is aware of their own exposure to Brexit.
Davis: We haven't yet concluded the legal text, so the money from the exit bill could be leveraged in the negotiations.

OMFG.

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DGRossetti · 01/05/2018 17:09

Annoyingly he says he did not "realise until recently" that this affected the retirement community.

Going back, there were some folk who argued that "thick as mince" was hyperbole and cruel. I hope they now acknowledge it was accurate and kindly ....

RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 17:11

Ian Dunt @IanDunt
Translation: That's a no.
Why did you agree instantly to a 21 month transition instead of sticking to our argument for 24 months?

Pointless question really. If someone tried to build a space ship with 23 bricks, the fact they didn't have 40 would be immaterial.

DD says commercial interests in UK needed "certainty by March" rather than worrying about the nature of the transition. In other words: He was reaching the pre-emptory cliff edge of businesses making decisions because they'd reached the 12-month lead-in.

DD asked about customs union amendment. Told committee has head from CBI and TUB that both want it (cats sleeping with dogs, locusts from the sky etc).

Tony Connelly @tconnellyRTE
Davis: while the economic partnership won't bite until Jan 1 2021 we want to get the security and defence partnership as soon as we can.
Davis: if we had tried to go beyond Dec 2020 (for the transition) we'd have been in a new MFF, ie seven year budget. And the bill for that would have been quite big.

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RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 17:16

Ian Dunt @IanDunt
DD blathers on. "Not sure which amendment to the withdrawal bill you;re talking about". Yes you are David.

"We;re going to have to resolve this matter in the Commons and the Lords as well," he admits. DD insist they have to leave cos British people were told this by both campaigns.

Fuck me backwards David that argument will make a lot more sense when we see that money for the NHS.

'No but THIS LIE we intend to keep!'

Apparently British trade policy is now defined by what Cameron said offhand on the fucking Marr programme. DD just cited it like it was gospel.

DD also presumably pursuing policy of all the German car manufacturers lining up outside Downing Street.

Tony Connelly @tconnellyRTE
Davis: we view leaving the EU as leaving the SM and CU. That's what the British people were told in the referendum by both sides of the arguement. Cameron, Osborne, Johnson, Gove all said that's what it means.
Davis: you don't get control of your borders if you're in a customs union.
Davis: in the last 20 years exports to the UK have going 60pc 40pc to the EU to 40 - 60. Being outside the CU gives us our own commercial policy, to open up those export markets.
Davis: we will make these arguments when it comes to the primary legislation [ie, despite all the amendments over the customs union]

How much more of this shite can I take?

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RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 17:26

Tony Connelly @tconnellyRTE
Davis: there is already a border in NI, on tax, on excise, VAT, a currency border, a judicial border.
Davis: in the event we get an FTA there will be no tariffs [ie btwn North and South]. It won't be a tariff issue, it will be a regulatory + rules of origin issue. That's a single market issue, not a customs union issue.
Davis: if you're a small business you probably don't send the product youself, you'll use an intermediary. If you do, then you shd be capable of being an Authorised Economic Operator [ie, trusted trader
Davis: on Ireland we are very, very engaged on getting the energy issue right, that's one of the North South strands
Davis: there's undoubtedly economic nervousness around the Irish border. That's one of the things we need to deal with: but there is a border there at the moment. It's not visible, but it does work.

Ian Dunt @IanDunt
DD told CU is only way to stop hard border in Ireland. Emits standard-issue Leaver guff. There is already a border etc. Sigh.
Says tariffs not a problem, it;s about single market. Then, as if it;s nothing, that it;s about rules of origin.
It is a single market and country-of-origin issue. And that that is precisely the problem. Might as well the stabbing was fine apart from the problem with the knife.
'Authorised economic operators'. Drink. 'Having no tariffs'. Drink. 'Electronic notification'. Drink. 'Not too difficult'. Drink.

Sam Lowe @SamuelMarcLowe
Rules of origin are pretty much the definition of a customs union issue.

Ian Dunt @IanDunt
Guys I'm not sure DD is on top of this shit.

Ok I can take no more. At least for now....

I have my brains to blow out
I have dinner to make.

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Motheroffourdragons · 01/05/2018 17:30

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Motheroffourdragons · 01/05/2018 17:34

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This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

Icantreachthepretzels · 01/05/2018 17:48

I do not believe that anybody was told what leaving the EU would mean in terms of SM, CU or borders

Quite the contrary, in fact. I believe even Farage himself cited Norway in the run up to the referendum.

whilst I will always be angry at anyone stupid enough to who believed the lies of the leave campaign - we need more people like this guy.
www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/it-is-ok-to-change-your-mind-on-brexit-says-hugh-norris-1-5498723
The remainer nows will carry far more weight with leavers who aren't that interested than us remoaners will.

In other news - I have finally worked out how to do strike throughs double dashes Grin

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 01/05/2018 18:04

Home Office told thousands of foreign students to leave UK in error

Accusations of faking English tests came amid department’s ‘hostile environment’ policy

amp.ft.com/content/2ae9b7d2-4d0c-11e8-8a8e-22951a2d8493

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 01/05/2018 18:17

Re: Boris Johnson signing the ratification of the new supranational European court that was discussed on the last thread - Faisal’s expanded thoughts

Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
going to have to do thread on because this is more than just amusing coincidence...
ratification INCREASES jurisdiction of European judges, including some based in Luxembourg, in UK, further integrates UK into European single market, in a new Court which asserts primacy of EU law

  1. An FCO Official lodges a new legal instrument “instrument of ratification” of the Unified Patent Court signed by Boris Johnson with the European Union Council in Brussels last week:
  1. So Boris Johnson’s signature has just ratified UK membership of a new European court that “shall apply [European] Union law in its entirety and shall respect its primacy”...

... when Govt policy is to end the jurisdiction and primacy of EU law in the UK...

  1. The Court that the Foreign Secretary has just signed the UK up to will be staffed by judges from different EU nations signed up to it, and its Court of Appeal “shall have its seat in Luxembourg” - sweepstake on how far from the ECJ??
  1. The new Court will have serious powers in places where it has jurisdiction- freezing orders, inspections, injunctions, fines, corrective measures - so not just a minor trade tribunal
  1. And though not a full EU institution, it is only open to EU members, is the result of an EU Council decision, the Johnson signature lodged at Its Brussels HQ... and refers to European Court of Justice on EU law matters “decisions of the Court of Justice shall be binding”

Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Might have missed this amid Rudd resignation...Boris signature means supremacy of EU law now wider, as UK signs up to effective Single Market in intellectual property..if this is ok pooling of sovereignty benefiting Uk economy, then it might open up similar mechanisms for Brexit

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 01/05/2018 18:59

BBC Newsline
@bbcnewsline
DUP: Varadkar's visit to Northern Ireland showed 'disrespect'

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-northern-ireland-43950115

Lord John Kilclooney
@KilclooneyJohn
Replying to @bbcnewsline
Typical Indian

BigChocFrenzy · 01/05/2018 19:40

That's the 2nd time this Unionist peer has been racist about Varadkar.
High time the HoL standards committee examined this blatant racism being tweeted by one of its "noble" members
He should be suspended

Rdoo · 01/05/2018 21:56

Varadkar has been attacked personally a number of times by the DUP/Unionists.

This from just a couple of weeks ago from Sammy Wilson, one of the MPs propping up Theresa May's government. (Referring to Varadkar's sexuality)

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dup-mp-criticised-for-referring-to-leo-varadkar-gaily-introducing-new-rules-on-beer-36827131.html

Varadkar shows remarkable restraint in never rising to it.

lonelyplanetmum · 01/05/2018 22:00

blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/05/01/demographic-trends-will-pull-british-public-opinion-in-a-pro-european-direction/

"Generational replacement is therefore likely to slowly pull attitudes in a more liberal direction, with older, more socially conservative cohorts who came of age before Britain joined the EU slowly fading away, while new socially liberal and cosmopolitan young voters, who have no memory of a Britain outside of the EU, join the electorate."

We already knew this. So it's perfectly legitimate for a differently composed government ( composed of who though?) to say:

" Look. We heard your views in 2016, and some of us agree with you. However it is the job of government to undertake long term planning. Therefore with a heavy heart we must acknowledge that (having listened to your advice) we still must retain our EU membership, as that is what the people of the near future want and the demographic trends are another factor which we are morally obliged to consider ."

The problem is of course decision making is predicated on short term party first tactics aimed at the next election..

RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 22:14

Robert Peston @ peston
@GavinWilliamson raises prospect of military action without allies by post-Brexit UK. “Sometimes it is right to act alone

Never has the phrase 'you and whose army' been more appropriate.

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RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 22:16

Robert Peston @ peston
“In a post Brexit world, our only limit will be our imagination” says @GavinWilliamson. Hmmm

Tries to visualise our army.

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RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 22:20

Robert Peston @ Peston
Apparently Brexit is “urging us only to look forward and never back”, says @GavinWilliamson. Not sure that is necessarily a good thing

Is this so you don't have to visualise the imaginary army behind you nor think about how pitiful and weak we have become compared with the days of the Empire?

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Icantreachthepretzels · 01/05/2018 22:23

The problem is of course decision making is predicated on short term party first tactics aimed at the next election..

But considering that without transition we will be in complete chaos this time next year and if transition goes ahead, then we fall off a cliff and into chaos in 2021 - and the next elections are 2022 - do they really think allowing this is the best short term policy to get them reelected?

If they cancelled this whole shit show now, know one would even remember this had happened by 2022.

They're policies, at the moment, are designed to allow them to survive this instant and to hell with the near future. They're far more afraid of cancelling Brexit and losing power right now - than they are of crashing the country and bringing it to it;s knees for the next few generations - in a couple of years time.

I find that mind boggling. They cannot kick the can down the road forever.

RedToothBrush · 01/05/2018 22:32

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5677905/amp/Liam-Fox-QUIT-Theresa-drops-red-line-EU-customs-union.html?__twitter_impression=true
Liam Fox makes clear he will QUIT if Theresa May drops red line on EU customs union as Brexit 'War Cabinet' showdown looms

If May does drop the red line on the customs union, the point of Fox's department ceases to exist.

So this is a bloody hard decision for him to make.

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