Westministenders: Groundhog Day

[RedToothBrush]

Groundhog day is 2nd Feb.

Its also today. And yesterday. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before.

We have all turned into Bill Murray.

That's Brexit in the UK.

The only progress seems to be linguistic gymnastics not policy.

No action has been implemented, we are still on words going nowhere.

Tick tock, tick tock.

On the plus side if a border between two countries with no convergence is as easy as the congestion charge then Scotland's independence is getting simpler than I had imagined.

imo, it is weakness. She is by far the weakest PM I can remember, going back to the 1960s.
Totally divided party, each group with over 48 supporters available to call for a vote of no-confidence in her leadership
So she is desperately avoiding offending anyone by making decisions

Very much a case of "in office but not in power"

Fantasy across the pond, too:

Trump claimed that he would have rushed to confront the Florida gunman— "even if I didn't have a weapon".
< He's never given a damn for for anyone else, so I'm a little sceptical about our hero >

re Boris advice to May: I expect Boris leaked this himself, to keep his supporters happy

No Trump would have run as fast as he could in the other direction.

et entre nous, le fait qu'une lettre aussi explosive ait pu être fuitée, la veille de la publication demain par l'UE de son texte sur l'accord 1ère phase, (où il est question notamment de la frontière en Irlande) montre à quel point le cabinet de TMay est un panier de crabes

I liked this tweet; questioning the timing of said letter before the EU text is revealed and calling May's cabinet 'un panier de crabes' .

< 'Don't break up britain' The **ing cheek of the woman

After that awayday last week, the Scum quoted a Tory Cabinet minister:

“Thursday was the first time we’ve ever sat round table and all agreed on something.

“Plan A was hard enough.
There is no Plan B.
We’ll get to plan B when we need to”.

Meanwhile, what is happening around the country …

Northamptonshire adult care services 'on verge of being unsafe'

www.theguardian.com/society/2018/feb/27/northamptonshire-adult-care-services-on-verge-unsafe

Cash-strapped council says up to 2,000 cases involving older and disabled people are unassigned

I actually can't quite believe the awfulness of Boris Johnson.

Ryanairis is cutting 300 jobs at Glasgow, but adding 700 at Edinburgh.

They say the cut is due to the Scottish govt Air Passenger Duty (APD) tax.
Naturally, APD - and later on Brexit - can make somewhere with an already weak business case unviable

This illustrates why unless Brexit is indeed SM + a Customs deal,
the UK govt as a whole will have to slash business taxes and in some cases give additional bungs:
Too many UK businesses already on a weak footing.

That would lead to massive budget deficits and / or massive cuts in welfare spending

http://www.warringtonguardian.co.uk/news/national/16051406.JobsattriskassRyanaircutssGlasgowAirporttbase/

O’Brien [Ryanair Chief commercial officer]:

“Passengers mean jobs and around 500,000 passengers will be lost at Glasgow pressurising around 300 jobs which will probably be lost.

“The flipside is that you’re looking at around 700 jobs being introduced to Edinburgh.”

Ryanair said Brexit was also a background factor threatening Scottish tourism and the airline industry.

Ex-colonies to UK: Forget Brexit ‘Empire 2.0’

https://www.politico.eu/article/commonwealth-summit-wont-be-empire-2-0-for-brexit-uk/

Commonwealth leaders are keen to prevent their biennial gathering in London later this year being dragged into the Brexit quagmire.

Organizers of the April summit are studiously avoiding a U.K. focus in any trade talks, keen to ensure the meeting reflects the guiding principle of equality between the 53 nations.
…
Giving evidence to the foreign affairs select committee last week, Minister of State for the Commonwealth and the United Nations Tariq Ahmad said the meeting provided a “huge opportunity” to advance trade deals.

“We are hoping that through the bilateral discussion that will take place there will be huge opportunities to, if not sign trade deals, certainly start those trade discussions as well where they have not begun”
…
Privately though, U.K. government ministers admit there is unlikely to be much progress on trade in April.
One senior U.K. official told POLITICO 6there is “nothing substantive in this space as yet.”^

I remember for so many years during the US war in VietNam that the word "quagmire" was always used.
It haunted the US for years (really devastating for the Vietnamese though)

Increasingly, politicians and media from other countries refer to Brexit as "Britain's quagmire"
It may haunt the country for years - Britain's economic VietNam ?

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3180562-Westminstenders-Break-Up-or-Make-Up?watched=1
New thread.

As for Trump saying he'd rush into the building after the gun man...

Trump is like a dalek before they learned to fly. He's can't use stairs.

He scared of stairs.

I think that might somehow be a bit of a issue in the context of trying to run (yes Donnie, I'd like to see you run full stop) into a school to stop a shooter.

How would that bone spur in his foot that helped him dodge the Vietnam draft play up on him too?

Dexeu with Pascal Lamy.

www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/8b00ce90-e83d-4f76-8c87-b0d2d2174af7

He really exposed the bull thinking. So, these ultras want the UK to have no border or border checks at all. UK totally open with no precautionary checks on anything. No origin checked. You could knock me down with a feather. The Irish side won't be checking items for the UK. So, for example, will kids exposed to lead in unchecked toys not raise any issues for the public?

^I remember for so many years during the US war in VietNam that the word "quagmire" was always used.
It haunted the US for years (really devastating for the Vietnamese though)^

An interesting question from across the pond ...

How would you explain Brexit to an American ? Prohibition, or Vietnam ?

my DB suggested Prohibition, as the only country that managed to hurt was the US.

So, yes, Brexit=Prohibition seems a good working analogy.

Are there any Amercians who claim Prohibition was a success ? Apart from the mafia commission ?

Not Prohibition because Brexit will also damage the Irish economy, so more like Vietnam.

Fair point ... although Canada and Mexico did quite well from Prohibition (as did the UK ...).

Vietnam was obviously terrible ... it was weird having a US penfriend in the 90s, who had lecturers that had served "in 'Nam".

It was also weird meeting US draft dodgers who had settled in the UK - despite Carters amnesty. I guess it's a signal of my politics that I have the utmost respect for them.

This is how we explain Brexit to our American friends, "Imagine Texas actually had an independence referendum and decided to leave the United States, the state laws would stay the same but everything else was unclear. As a Texan you would lose the right to work or travel into another state as an American. You would be told you weren't an American anymore just a Texan and to suggest you were was being unpatriotic"