Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM

[RedToothBrush]

'Quick' Recap.

Once upon a time, despite warnings to the contrary after previously attempting to recreate a speech from the 1930s, Theresa May triggered a50.

A series of events, which included a disastrous unnecessary General Election and losing seats, ensured that we have Brexit by Timetable in which every piece of goodwill was burnt up a long time ago, and the EU decided to go "see ya then".

Only this General Election, made this politically impossible as well as practically impossible, given how this would destroy our economy.

So May did the only thing she could and agreed to lock us in with sufficient progress deal, which is legally binding, if no deal is agreed. Thus giving us in essence a choice between staying in the Single Market and Customs Union due to NI or breaking an international agreement which would destroy all our international credibility and trust.

Except none of the Brexiteers really grasped what was happening. Until this week.

In the meantime we still have had spectacles of Nadine Dorries asking on the infamous WhatsApp Group why we can't stay in the CU. Any Davis saying that he has now apparently 'changed his mind' on the matter. Not that Labour are any better, with Corbyn saying we can't stay in the Single Market and leave the EU. Except of course, Norway is in the Single Market...

Fast forward through a sex scandal that's swept through Westminster, installing self appointing the vampiric Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary, we eventually ended up with a reshuffle which was possibly as pointless and as successful as the General Election. And Gavin Williamson is caught up in a sex scandal.

May has managed to drag the Great Repel Bill through the Commons, without breaking the party, but with much back room dealing and compromise with Remainers. Hailed as something of a victory by Brexiteers, this rather is a fools paradise. At what price to their ideological purity did this come? Is there much Brexit left? And there is much more to come in the Lords, with the LDs committed to working with Labour on securing at least 10 amendments. The two parties have a majority in the Lords if they work together.

Away from parliament we have had the glorious demise of Toby Young, who is forever to be remembered for eugenics.

As it has become apparent that we are increasingly looking like we are on track for BINO, the EU have told us, that we should have sucked up a compromise proposal earlier and now the Norway Option is off the table as we fucked that up by taking too long to disagree amongst ourselves and being arses to EU citz. I paraphrase slightly here, but that's about he long and short of it. Instead we get the pleasure of 21 months of the EU interfering in our law without representation. And we are already locked into this. Now Leavers can moan about this, and shock horror, actually be correct about it too! Transition will be up to 31st Dec 2020 at the latest. Which realistically is still too soon, not that any lying arsed Brexiteer is willing to admit to this. Yet.

The only way to get out of this proposal for better terms? Either beg the EU for something there is no way they will give us or revoke / extend a50.

The fall out from May's reshuffle is still going on in slow motion. Rees-Mogg has got a bigger platform to spout shit he knows nothing about, admit that he has never changed a nappy nor wiped his own arse, thinks women should give birth to football teams, and how he has never visited IKEA and has no plans to do so. Johnson has tried to build bridges. And effed that one up again. Gove has made us all be obsessed by plastic straws and turn into environmental maniacs because no other minister is good at press releases and media stunts. Arch Remainac Liddington, got Deputy PM and took over Brexshit even more from DExEU. Hunt is in no way after becoming PM and Greening is really pissed and when straight back to lead from the Naughty Step.

To cut the long story short: they all hate May and think she's shit

There are thought to be nearly 48 letters to trigger a leadership election in Graham Brady's hands. But not quite. And its not about the letters its about needing 159 MPs to no confidence her... but that is starting to sound more and more plausible in the face of Brexshit hitting the fan.

We now have a leaked impact assessment that we really were not supposed to see which is slightly less worse than Project Fear. But not by much. Its supposed to be by DExEU. Its been suggested that its actually by alt-DExEU aka the Cabinet Department (Robbins and Liddington).

Anyway, nothing is decided. May might zombie on forever. She won't, she's in a crowded field of Tories with stakes. But that sub-committee meeting on Wed 7th Feb is crunch time for something or someone.

Tick tock, tick tock, went the Brexit Clock.

Oh yeah and there's going to be a trade war between the US and EU. And there's some stuff about a ex-Belize diplomat. And Trump's coming to visit us.

Don't talk about flags and protocols

Look at the excoriation Nicola Sturgeon got for supposedly banning the flying of the Union flag except on one day of the year. Front page splashes on the Torygraph, Mail, Express.....

Except she hadn't .

The policy had been changed in 2010 by Alex Salmond in agreement with the Queen_ , to fly the Lion Rampant (the royal standard) instead on royal occasions and all that had happened was that a civil servant had got round to updating the protocols ( without any nudge from Nicola).

Of course, the apologies that the papers printed were in small print on the inside of the newspapers

#fakenews

DGRossetti - there are laws about flying flags in Northern Ireland

Thanks for that ... I once had to work on a UK recruitment system, and the additional effort for NI was an eye opener. Which is one reason why I am hopefully a little bit less ignorant when it comes to the GFA. Although (as shown) I wouldn't claim to have a complete knowledge.

Interestingly, I've never met anyone who has been to Northern Ireland (typically Belfast) who hasn't returned singing it's praises, and saying you have to go.

(A long ago client had a NI estate agency ....)

So she can't be challenged, but can issue a challenge.

But then she's finished politically - "Brexit means Brexit and I intend to make a success of it", bites the dust. I think she would then do a Cameron and stand down as an MP.

Look at the excoriation Nicola Sturgeon got for supposedly banning the flying of the Union flag except on one day of the year.

If this latest nonsense makes the Brexit press, they will be praising it to the skies.

Placemat king.

Thanks red

Of course, the apologies that the papers printed were in small print on the inside of the newspapers

Apologies should be required - by law - to be issued in exactly the same form as the item they are apologising for. In fact that was probably the biggest single thing Leveson could have done. Would have taken a morning (including break for biscuits) and be enacted in the afternoon.

Sometimes things really are that simple.

I wonder if those impact reports (of shifting existential status) assumed protection for the financial sector? Given that they appear to have assumed as yet non-existent trade deals outside the EU, I suspect 'yes'.

So an economic hit between 2-8% should be revised up?

Scary, surely?

I've been reading the "If you voted 'Leave', why?" thread and it is interesting. Yes, there are the racists. But I think the people who voted having bought the line - indoctrinated over decades - that the EU was a monster that was swallowing up the UK (rather than a super-effective trade bloc) are more worrying. I suspect that, precisely because they don't see the EU as, first and foremost, an economic bloc that bestowed enormous advantages, they are amazingly resistant to arguments based on economics.

It's as though a hippo has been described as a duck for decades, and explaining that you've given your duck away and there won't be any more eggs is pointless because they just go on thinking about the hippo, and how they're glad the hippo has gone, and hippos don't lay eggs.

Talk of the economic impact of Brexit should be putting the fear of God into the public. But no. I can't help but think this is because of years of indoctrination about the bad, scary EU (so useful as a scare tactic over the years; so deleterious now).

I agree DGRossetti - it would be an incentive to both the tabloids and the broadsheets the Telegraph I'm looking at you on this occasion to check their sources before splashing their headlines across the whole front page if they then had to "waste" a front page printing the retraction.

Does everyone shoulder equal blame for using the EU as a scare tactic or is it split along party lines? At the moment labour and Tory aren’t diverging but historically has it been different? (I know that the tories have but I am ignorant about whether other parties did similar)

Talking of China and the mythical free trade deal, I was out the other day with a friend who works for a (non UK) company with both suppliers and investors in China. She was over earlier this month and at a dinner with some investors they (the Chinese investors) were chortling at the stupidity of Brexit and the British businesses falling over themselves to secure investment. They mentioned that all investment plans for British businesses had been put in hold indefinitely and they were instead increasing investment in continental EU as the UK is no longer a viable prospect. This is only a handful of investors, but I have heard of Chinese backers pulling out of a couple of businesses after the Brexit vote. I imagine the lack of clarity (or indeed any hint of good sense) since hasn't helped with attracting back the money.

All that just to place mark.

I think she would then do a Cameron and stand down as an MP.

And then Lord Buckethead will win the Maidenhead by election!

Chuka Umunna
@ChukaUmunna
Very clear msg from Ireland's Deputy PM @SimonCoveney at @ChathamHouse just now: "If Britain did change its mind...there would be an extraordinarily generous approach from the rest of the EU." "...there would be no country celebrating more than Ireland!" >> the UK has the choice

Yy to apologies / retractions being as prominent as the original story

I don't often sign online petitions, but I would support one that proposed that

Interestingly, I've never met anyone who has been to Northern Ireland (typically Belfast) who hasn't returned singing it's praises, and saying you have to go

I wouldn't say you have to go to Belfast (though it's nice enough), but some other parts of NI are awesome. Skip the Giant's Causeway, though, it is very disappointing!

May is free to resign of course,
but they changed the rules (iirc after MrsT):

she would have to stand down permanently, i.e. she can't challenge her awkward squad to a leadership contest

I wonder how far the 1922 Committee chair is from reaching the magic 48 letters which will automatically call a contest - in which she can choose to stand (if she's a glutton for punishment)

Correction, not a leadership contest, but a yes/no vote of confidence in the leader

If she loses, it would be too humiliating to stand again in the following contest

Sorry this is not Brexit related, but I see that Parliament has voted to move out while the building is renovated. From what I have read the building is an unsanitary fire hazard, so I am pleased that the voted this way. I did note that it was Angela Leasdom who wanted the MPs to vote i.e. instead of making a decision and getting on with it, cross your fingers and hope the decision can be deferred.

After Carillion, now Crapita ?

Capita shares hit 15-year low after shock profits warning

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/jan/31/capita-profit-warning-shares-tumble-markets-nervous-eurozone-inflation-federal-reserve-business-live

Place marking

Interesting that the HoC can show courage to protect their own comfort & safety.

Now we just need them to show courage to protect the rest of the country
< drums fingers … >

Was just discussing capita and the forensic supplier with DH. Why are all these public sector suppliers getting into such difficulties now?
The forensic company is being bailed out by police forces which rather makes a mockery of privatizing stuff.
I thought it was barking to close down FSS anyway

I just read the “Leave vote” thread.

Good grief.

"If Britain did change its mind...there would be an extraordinarily generous approach from the rest of the EU."

Which rather squashes the claim that we have to keep on ploughing ahead because we'd be a laughing stock if we changed our mind . Maybe leavers should crack open the New Testament and read the parable of the Prodigal Son...

Coca Cola cutting jobs. No suggested link to Brexit and whilst I'm no fan of sugary drinks companies is anyone else getting concerned by the number of supposedly successful companies cutting jobs lately?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-42887070