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Brexit

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM

992 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/01/2018 00:18

'Quick' Recap.

Once upon a time, despite warnings to the contrary after previously attempting to recreate a speech from the 1930s, Theresa May triggered a50.

A series of events, which included a disastrous unnecessary General Election and losing seats, ensured that we have Brexit by Timetable in which every piece of goodwill was burnt up a long time ago, and the EU decided to go "see ya then".

Only this General Election, made this politically impossible as well as practically impossible, given how this would destroy our economy.

So May did the only thing she could and agreed to lock us in with sufficient progress deal, which is legally binding, if no deal is agreed. Thus giving us in essence a choice between staying in the Single Market and Customs Union due to NI or breaking an international agreement which would destroy all our international credibility and trust.

Except none of the Brexiteers really grasped what was happening. Until this week.

In the meantime we still have had spectacles of Nadine Dorries asking on the infamous WhatsApp Group why we can't stay in the CU. Any Davis saying that he has now apparently 'changed his mind' on the matter. Not that Labour are any better, with Corbyn saying we can't stay in the Single Market and leave the EU. Except of course, Norway is in the Single Market...

Fast forward through a sex scandal that's swept through Westminster, installing self appointing the vampiric Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary, we eventually ended up with a reshuffle which was possibly as pointless and as successful as the General Election. And Gavin Williamson is caught up in a sex scandal.

May has managed to drag the Great Repel Bill through the Commons, without breaking the party, but with much back room dealing and compromise with Remainers. Hailed as something of a victory by Brexiteers, this rather is a fools paradise. At what price to their ideological purity did this come? Is there much Brexit left? And there is much more to come in the Lords, with the LDs committed to working with Labour on securing at least 10 amendments. The two parties have a majority in the Lords if they work together.

Away from parliament we have had the glorious demise of Toby Young, who is forever to be remembered for eugenics.

As it has become apparent that we are increasingly looking like we are on track for BINO, the EU have told us, that we should have sucked up a compromise proposal earlier and now the Norway Option is off the table as we fucked that up by taking too long to disagree amongst ourselves and being arses to EU citz. I paraphrase slightly here, but that's about he long and short of it. Instead we get the pleasure of 21 months of the EU interfering in our law without representation. And we are already locked into this. Now Leavers can moan about this, and shock horror, actually be correct about it too! Transition will be up to 31st Dec 2020 at the latest. Which realistically is still too soon, not that any lying arsed Brexiteer is willing to admit to this. Yet.

The only way to get out of this proposal for better terms? Either beg the EU for something there is no way they will give us or revoke / extend a50.

The fall out from May's reshuffle is still going on in slow motion. Rees-Mogg has got a bigger platform to spout shit he knows nothing about, admit that he has never changed a nappy nor wiped his own arse, thinks women should give birth to football teams, and how he has never visited IKEA and has no plans to do so. Johnson has tried to build bridges. And effed that one up again. Gove has made us all be obsessed by plastic straws and turn into environmental maniacs because no other minister is good at press releases and media stunts. Arch Remainac Liddington, got Deputy PM and took over Brexshit even more from DExEU. Hunt is in no way after becoming PM and Greening is really pissed and when straight back to lead from the Naughty Step.

To cut the long story short: they all hate May and think she's shit

There are thought to be nearly 48 letters to trigger a leadership election in Graham Brady's hands. But not quite. And its not about the letters its about needing 159 MPs to no confidence her... but that is starting to sound more and more plausible in the face of Brexshit hitting the fan.

We now have a leaked impact assessment that we really were not supposed to see which is slightly less worse than Project Fear. But not by much. Its supposed to be by DExEU. Its been suggested that its actually by alt-DExEU aka the Cabinet Department (Robbins and Liddington).

Anyway, nothing is decided. May might zombie on forever. She won't, she's in a crowded field of Tories with stakes. But that sub-committee meeting on Wed 7th Feb is crunch time for something or someone.

Tick tock, tick tock, went the Brexit Clock.

Oh yeah and there's going to be a trade war between the US and EU. And there's some stuff about a ex-Belize diplomat. And Trump's coming to visit us.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
67
SwedishEdith · 31/01/2018 21:20

Robert Peston
‏*@Peston*

On plane to China, PM downplayed civil service analysis of costs of Brexit as “a very preliminary analysis which ministers have not signed off, have not approved”. This is slightly chilling. Ministers’ job is to make policy decisions on basis of evidence, not invent the evidence

frozenlake · 31/01/2018 21:24

FMCG companies are reducing investment in UK and relocating more activities elsewhere but none of them are prepared to say it is anything to do with Brexit and ideally they link an overseas move with a small number of new jobs in UK for a temporary period of time.
I saw some good news about investment by a company in the north of England and said to DH I was pleased but surprised to see this and he told me the parent company was trying to sell the whole company in the UK at present, that wasn't mentioned in the article I read at all.

BigChocFrenzy · 31/01/2018 21:50

Sounds like those naughty civil service experts produced a report which No.10 hadn't "sexed up"

Oh the horror of it: an honest report slipping out accidentally Shock

HesterThrale · 01/02/2018 05:42

Theresa May to fight EU transition residency plan.Theresa May has indicated she will fight a proposal to give residency rights to EU citizens during the transition period after Brexit. She said there had to be a "difference" between those arriving after the UK leaves and those who came before.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42896996

DGRossetti · 01/02/2018 06:51

Theresa May to fight EU transition residency plan.

She should chose her battles. Continuing membership of CU/SM will be pegged to FOM. I'd be surprised (putting it mildly) if the EU would allow any situation where an EU citizen can be discriminated against when compared to another EU citizen.

lalalonglegs · 01/02/2018 07:42

I can't imagine anyone (outside the ranks of swivel-eyed) will imagine for a moment that TM will be successful with this latest demand. It's become quite ritualistic: the EU sets out its position, the UK rattles its sabres, the EU reiterates its position, the UK backs down. She must know that she's just going through the motions now.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 01/02/2018 07:55

So many things about Brexit feel evergreen

Theresa May shrugs off Brexit critics with defiant refusal to quit

amp.ft.com/content/2c64fde2-061c-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5?__twitter_impression=true

woman11017 · 01/02/2018 08:24

The Leaked Brexit Analysis Shows How Cutting EU Immigration Will Hit The UK Economy The January 2018 Brexit analysis seen by BuzzFeed News shows the cost of falling EU migration would more than wipe out the economic boost of a US trade deal

twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/958845046110945281

@Peston
On plane to China, PM downplayed civil service analysis of costs of Brexit as “a very preliminary analysis which ministers have not signed off, have not approved”. This is slightly chilling. Ministers’ job is to make policy decisions on basis of evidence, not invent the evidence

DGRossetti · 01/02/2018 08:51

Ministers’ job is to make policy decisions on basis of evidence

No it's not, and never has been. That's been the problem.

woman11017 · 01/02/2018 08:54

Maidenhead's next MP:

@LordBuckethead
May I propose a further amendment: it will be essential for British MPs to continue to meet in a venue at the heart of international affairs but which has cheaper rent than Westminster. Brussels is the obvious choice.Lord Buckethead added,

@BBCParliament
MPs vote 236 to 220 in favour of an amendment by Labour's Meg Hillier, chair of the Public Accounts Committee, requiring MPs to move out of Parliament while restoration takes place.

TheElementsSong · 01/02/2018 09:25

I read somewhere that many of the MPs who voted against moving out of Parliament (this being the more financially and practically sensible thing to do) were the ardent Brexiteers.

How ironic that they all turned into "Remainers" when it comes to not pissing money and effort away Grin

Eeeeeowwwfftz · 01/02/2018 10:20

Will UK citizens retain FOM in Europe during the transition period? If so, then yes, I think May is pissing in the wind. If not, then I might grudgingly accept that she has a point.

In other news, isn't it all very well for Cameron and Osborne to say that leaving the EU is a mistake now? I mean, it's not like they could have done anything to stop legislating for a referendum in June 2015, is it?

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 01/02/2018 10:43

And that's why history will judge them harshly (I suspect many people are ahead of the game and already are).

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 01/02/2018 10:45

Anna Soubry seems to be getting more and more committed to calling out the farce, which I think can only be encouraging

Anna Soubry MP
‏*@Anna*_Soubry
PM can’t use #EUcitizensrights as red meat to satisfy #HardBrexiteers PM needs to see them off or risk losing the support of moderates

DGRossetti · 01/02/2018 10:46

Will UK citizens retain FOM in Europe during the transition period?

You can bet your bottom dollar the Brexiteers will insist want it.

It is incroyable to think that they will countenance a situation where "British people" have to use a long separate queue (with possible additional checks and requirements) because they have a blue passport.

But you have to give to get.

I'm old enough to remember coming back to the UK from my DFs country and seeing the difference in UK/Non UK immigration prior to 1975, as I could come in as a UK or non-UK citizen. Quite aside from the resources needed to reintroduce such a regime, the politics make it impossible. Imagine a bunch of lads popping over for a stag-do, and 5 of them having to queue whilst the Irish one sails through ...

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 01/02/2018 10:52

Sam Coates Times‏Verified account
@SamCoatesTimes

There are problems with Brexit in Whitehall.

Here’s a small tale of government indecision, prevarication and “no deal” neurosis with big implications. 2 qs:

  1. Have you heard of the Road Haulage and truckers bill🚚
  1. Until you do: Is “no deal” planning *really* happening🐌

The government isn’t keen on you paying too much attention to the haulage bill. This is policy across whitehall - depts told not to highlight its significance

But without it - & we crash out of the EU and rely on WTO rules - will we have food on shop shelves
🚚🍏🥕🥩🚚❓

“No deal” planning - true “no deal” planning rather than DexEU press releases - requires legislation
⚖️
But no major pieces of “no deal” legislation have hit the Commons yet

There have been small bits and pieces (nuclear safeguards for EG). But nothing big.

Until now

This is it

The Gvt acknowledges internally that the Road Haulage Bill is the first proper piece of legislation for “no deal” planning that they’ve put forward

Except they haven’t put it forward. It was meant to come early Jan but it’s now deadlocked, No10 confirm

⏳⌛️⏳⌛️

There are two big problems with the Road Haulage bill - which in theory could and should would apply to every piece of “no deal” legislation the government might want to pass. It’s why Brexiteers like Jacob Rees Mogg are paying attention to this bill.

🔎🔎🔎

First civil service analysis for the bill makes “no deal” look unattractive.

Britain’s 75,000 hauliers can use EU roads because of EU membership. If we crash out they rely on a permit system for “3rd countries”

Officials think we will get 1,200 permits, devastating the industry

So the first reason the bill is causing tension is some Brexiteers in government think this analysis too gloomy.

Some Brexiteer spads are attacking civil service pessimism (sounds familiar!)

Others think it make “no deal” look awful thereby undermining our negotiating hand

🤦🏻‍♂️

The other tension is that Ministers and Officials close to the negotiation also think Haulage bill should be paused because:

  1. We will get a deal so why waste time and money on this bill
  2. The transition negotiations are delicate so why antagonise Brussels

🙄

A government source summed it up [picture 1]

Did I mention Jacob is watching [picture 2]

A No10 source said there was no date for the bill and there was still a lot of work to do on it.

Meanwhile the Department for Transport quote for my story reinforces my claim above that inside gvt they don’t want you to pay any attention to it to this bill [picture 3]

Oh, and a quick reminder from my excellent colleague @GraemePaton that the haulier bill is not the only thing going wrong with the DfT’s post Brexit planning [couldn't attach any more pictures but link here: twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/959006963723046912 ]

This Twitter thread is an expanded version of a story from today’s paper. If it it struck you as interesting then please do consider subscribing to The Times.

Delays to no-deal bill raise fears that Theresa May is going soft

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5f64dbd0-06e0-11e8-8e80-008642e5faa1

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM
Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM
Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM
OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 01/02/2018 10:54

Liam Fox admits being in EU doesn't stop more trade with China

International trade secretary says bilateral deal with China ‘some time away’ and argues embattled May deserves same respect in UK that she gets overseas

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/01/liam-fox-admits-being-in-eu-doesnt-stop-more-trade-with-china?CMP=share_btn_tw

DGRossetti · 01/02/2018 11:01

argues embattled May deserves same respect in UK that she gets overseas

er, he doesn't really mean that does he Hmm ????

RedToothBrush · 01/02/2018 11:17

www.thesun.co.uk/news/5471789/senior-minister-preparing-to-resign-and-denounce-theresa-may-from-the-backbenches/
It May be the end Senior minister ‘preparing to resign and denounce Theresa May from the backbenches’
The respected Tory MP has told allies he is close to resigning in a principled protest at the PM’s failing leadership

The minister - whose identity is known by The Sun - is one of a number not in the Cabinet left very frustrated by the PM’s failure to promote the younger generation into senior jobs during her botched New Year reshuffle.

No10 aides will fear his outburst is likely to trigger a chain reaction of other ministers and MPs also speaking out in a bid to persuade the PM to set a date for her early departure.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 01/02/2018 11:19

Nadine Dorries @NadineDorries
Only MPs in Westminster trying to bring down Prime Minister are a dozen remainers. Every Brexiteer MP is solidly behind the PM and absolutely loyally supports her100%. Anna Soubry shooting her mouth off in Parliament in order to grab daily headlines does not alter that fact.

No one want to jump first.

OP posts:
Dobby1sAFreeElf · 01/02/2018 11:24

Solidly behind the PM, with proverbial knives ready I presume.

Peregrina · 01/02/2018 11:24

Re the No Deal Road Haulage stuff - I actually have to agree with Rees-Smug on this one - we do need some planning as to what we would do if we don't get a deal. If we get a deal, we scrap those plans with thanks - money wasted, but then, this Govt has got form for wasting money on vanity projects, so what's the difference?

Take food - we haven't been able to feed our population without imports for nigh on 200 years now. The plans need to be put in place Now - even printing and distributing ration books, and working out who collects which rations from where takes time to plan and implement.

Will the Brexiteers - the suck in up you lost brigade we saw so much of on these threads a year ago - really be telling themselves as they queue for three hours at passports, or have to join a food queue, or worse, accept rationing, "It's all worth it because we are out of the hated EU"?

DGRossetti · 01/02/2018 11:32

Even if the rumoured earthquake alluded to upthread comes to nothing, I suspect Theresa May will have to be much more circumspect about leaving the country in future. (As an aside it's telling that not once did I hear anything about the Foreign Secretaries part - or otherwise - in Mays China visit).

I suppose it completes the metaphor of a lame duck who now can't fly.

Peregrina · 01/02/2018 11:34

The minister - whose identity is known by The Sun - is one of a number not in the Cabinet left very frustrated by the PM’s failure to promote the younger generation into senior jobs during her botched New Year reshuffle.

Ooh, who could that be? Any guesses? Sooner or later someone will leak the name. Is May back from China yet?

DGRossetti · 01/02/2018 11:36

The plans need to be put in place Now - even printing and distributing ration books, and working out who collects which rations from where takes time to plan and implement.

Before that you would have to have plans for civil order. And that is troops on streets. Nothing the Northern Irish won't have seen. But it will be a shock in Tunbridge Wells.

Mrs Thatchers one red line was troops on the streets. She hated needing the SAS to break the Iranian embassy siege and insisted that any future operations were carried out by the police. Hence "riot city" which was on Hounslow Heath (did anyone ever fly over it on the way to Heathrow and see their airliner on fire sometimes ?).

Now Churchill, on the other hand.