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Brexit

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM

992 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/01/2018 00:18

'Quick' Recap.

Once upon a time, despite warnings to the contrary after previously attempting to recreate a speech from the 1930s, Theresa May triggered a50.

A series of events, which included a disastrous unnecessary General Election and losing seats, ensured that we have Brexit by Timetable in which every piece of goodwill was burnt up a long time ago, and the EU decided to go "see ya then".

Only this General Election, made this politically impossible as well as practically impossible, given how this would destroy our economy.

So May did the only thing she could and agreed to lock us in with sufficient progress deal, which is legally binding, if no deal is agreed. Thus giving us in essence a choice between staying in the Single Market and Customs Union due to NI or breaking an international agreement which would destroy all our international credibility and trust.

Except none of the Brexiteers really grasped what was happening. Until this week.

In the meantime we still have had spectacles of Nadine Dorries asking on the infamous WhatsApp Group why we can't stay in the CU. Any Davis saying that he has now apparently 'changed his mind' on the matter. Not that Labour are any better, with Corbyn saying we can't stay in the Single Market and leave the EU. Except of course, Norway is in the Single Market...

Fast forward through a sex scandal that's swept through Westminster, installing self appointing the vampiric Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary, we eventually ended up with a reshuffle which was possibly as pointless and as successful as the General Election. And Gavin Williamson is caught up in a sex scandal.

May has managed to drag the Great Repel Bill through the Commons, without breaking the party, but with much back room dealing and compromise with Remainers. Hailed as something of a victory by Brexiteers, this rather is a fools paradise. At what price to their ideological purity did this come? Is there much Brexit left? And there is much more to come in the Lords, with the LDs committed to working with Labour on securing at least 10 amendments. The two parties have a majority in the Lords if they work together.

Away from parliament we have had the glorious demise of Toby Young, who is forever to be remembered for eugenics.

As it has become apparent that we are increasingly looking like we are on track for BINO, the EU have told us, that we should have sucked up a compromise proposal earlier and now the Norway Option is off the table as we fucked that up by taking too long to disagree amongst ourselves and being arses to EU citz. I paraphrase slightly here, but that's about he long and short of it. Instead we get the pleasure of 21 months of the EU interfering in our law without representation. And we are already locked into this. Now Leavers can moan about this, and shock horror, actually be correct about it too! Transition will be up to 31st Dec 2020 at the latest. Which realistically is still too soon, not that any lying arsed Brexiteer is willing to admit to this. Yet.

The only way to get out of this proposal for better terms? Either beg the EU for something there is no way they will give us or revoke / extend a50.

The fall out from May's reshuffle is still going on in slow motion. Rees-Mogg has got a bigger platform to spout shit he knows nothing about, admit that he has never changed a nappy nor wiped his own arse, thinks women should give birth to football teams, and how he has never visited IKEA and has no plans to do so. Johnson has tried to build bridges. And effed that one up again. Gove has made us all be obsessed by plastic straws and turn into environmental maniacs because no other minister is good at press releases and media stunts. Arch Remainac Liddington, got Deputy PM and took over Brexshit even more from DExEU. Hunt is in no way after becoming PM and Greening is really pissed and when straight back to lead from the Naughty Step.

To cut the long story short: they all hate May and think she's shit

There are thought to be nearly 48 letters to trigger a leadership election in Graham Brady's hands. But not quite. And its not about the letters its about needing 159 MPs to no confidence her... but that is starting to sound more and more plausible in the face of Brexshit hitting the fan.

We now have a leaked impact assessment that we really were not supposed to see which is slightly less worse than Project Fear. But not by much. Its supposed to be by DExEU. Its been suggested that its actually by alt-DExEU aka the Cabinet Department (Robbins and Liddington).

Anyway, nothing is decided. May might zombie on forever. She won't, she's in a crowded field of Tories with stakes. But that sub-committee meeting on Wed 7th Feb is crunch time for something or someone.

Tick tock, tick tock, went the Brexit Clock.

Oh yeah and there's going to be a trade war between the US and EU. And there's some stuff about a ex-Belize diplomat. And Trump's coming to visit us.

OP posts:
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lonelyplanetmum · 10/02/2018 11:31

Bodkin Adams is very well known around Eastbourne and I thought nationally. It's not new news.

Amber Rudd down the road in Hastings would certainly have heard all about it. It's a pretty tenuous link to the PM really.
If it was going to be used, that would have happened by now surely? Also more likely to invoke sympathy for TM.

lonelyplanetmum · 10/02/2018 11:46

Has anyone got a take on where we stand on the Vienna convention- balancing piloting driverless cars on the one hand, and taking any lorries at allover the channel on the other?

BigChocFrenzy · 10/02/2018 11:51

I expect there is workaround to do both, if the govt is already using the 1968 Vienna Convention to get (a small fraction of) UK lorry drivers certified.
Or some other means

Or of course, the Tory party could stick a hood over May's head and go for the Single Market to avoid most of this hassle.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/02/2018 11:53

It is interesting that the Wiki pages were deleted though.
If there is a push to fire May, then in a crisis, any ammunition might be added to the cannon

lonelyplanetmum · 10/02/2018 11:54

....go for the Single Market to avoid most of this hassle.

As my Mum would have said
' Some people just have to learn the hard way..'

Goes off whistling " There's a hole in my bucket.." in an unhinged manner.

Bodoni · 10/02/2018 12:14

I thought the Brasier biog was interesting in explaining how May is the way she is - don’t notice anything amiss, Authority is absolute.

mrsreynolds · 10/02/2018 12:19

My own - admittedly not very educated - guess is that if the Tories get hammered in typical elections in May then there will be a leadership challenge.
I think that's what JRM, gove and bojo are counting on.
Will this mean another summer GE?

mrsreynolds · 10/02/2018 12:19

local elections
No such thing as a typical election

BigChocFrenzy · 10/02/2018 12:21

No time for another GE, yet another 6 weeks wasted at least (and another £150 million)
Even if JRM or Bojo become leader with a wave of popularity, they'd remember what happened last GE, within a few weeks.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/02/2018 12:22

Unless the new leader just wants a WTO Brexit, in which case, no need to consider negotiating deadline of October

BigChocFrenzy · 10/02/2018 12:25

I still don't think they'd risk Corbyn getting in and turning Brexit Britain into a higher-tax country with a boosted state sector, renewed union rights etc, instead of their Singapore on Thames dream

mrsreynolds · 10/02/2018 12:26

Might not have an option though?
Quite a few mps have already said they wouldn't serve in a JRM led govt

Eeeeeowwwfftz · 10/02/2018 12:43

May will triumph in the locals. Mark my words.

lonelyplanetmum · 10/02/2018 12:48

I agree local Tory councillors will retain and gain seats.

lonelyplanetmum · 10/02/2018 12:55

Apologies if this was posted on Thursday but finally the 15 year rule is being changed. That IS interesting.

www.thelocal.de/20180209/long-term-brits-in-germany-to-get-back-vote-as-london-announces-end-to-time-limit

Violetparis · 10/02/2018 13:05

Eeee and Lonely why do you think May/Tories will do well in the local elections ? Just curious as to why you think this, I have no idea as to what might happen.

lonelyplanetmum · 10/02/2018 13:18

I think it because the last few weeks have been usual levels of appallingness. For example, the non existent Impact assessments finally emerging, showing a range of realistic absurdly unnecessary economic downsides of resigning from the EU. Attempts by JRM to turn on his fellow Treasury ministers and civil servants and imply they would cook the books.
Yet still the Yougov graph shows^ a sharp^ upward movement in Tory support.

Even the whole cabinet eating a litter of kittens raw and live during a party political broadcast wouldn't stop true blue voters.

go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=www.thetimes.co.uk/article/poll-lead-brings-relief-for-tory-party-after-infighting-ss929xtmw

Violetparis · 10/02/2018 13:31

Thanks Lonely, I hope you are wrong Sad

mrsreynolds · 10/02/2018 13:47

Hope you're wrong too lonely
😔

prettybird · 10/02/2018 13:48

I had an argument with my parents in 1992 when we were despairing about the result of the GE, saying that I didn't think Middle England would ever get out of its rut of voting Conservative.

I was wrong.

It used to be said that a monkey in a red rosette would win in Scottish constituencies, as voting Labour was so ingrained.

That was wrong.

Strange things can happen.

Don't give up hope.

(Admittedly, at least in Scotland we do have a realistic alternative Wink even if for the moment we are stuck with what Westminster dictates Angry and I use the word "dictates" deliberately Hmm)

lonelyplanetmum · 10/02/2018 14:10

Do you know what else I've noticed among friends, 48% groups, MN etc ? Despite all the evidence, insight, facts etc there seems an increased resignation amongst remain voters. Maybe it's just me, but the absolute upper limit of hope seems any kind of EU trade arrangement. ^
^
Whereas there were some people who were never giving up, hoping for being more holistic participants in the EU, hoping for being the key players that we were, with all the cultural, funding, arts, research, work , study, international support, peace promoting, collective benefits. These hopes seem to have become far more forlorn and worn down now.

On that depressing note I'd better set off on the start of our half term visiting...

Icantreachthepretzels · 10/02/2018 14:12

I had an argument with my parents in 1992

I managed to read that as 1922 three times! I just kept think -fuck me - how old is prettybird ?

BiglyBadgers · 10/02/2018 14:26

I wonder with local elections how much local issues effect votes and turnout more than in general elections. We are hitting a point when local council cuts are really starting to hurt people. Lots of councils are cutting care services, libraries, etc and it has become noticeable. Will this hit local elections and result in incumbents from all parties being pushed out?

prettybird · 10/02/2018 14:38

Grin Icantreachthepretzels - you even made me doubt what I'd typed ShockWink

BigChocFrenzy · 10/02/2018 14:41

Irish Times discussing measures so that RoI citizens in NI could keep their EU rights after Brexit

Note: that's not for the other E26 citizens, only RoI

www.irishtimes.com/opinion/noel-whelan-eu-rights-of-irish-citizens-in-north-a-brexit-dilemma-1.3385131?mode=amp

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