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Brexit

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM

992 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/01/2018 00:18

'Quick' Recap.

Once upon a time, despite warnings to the contrary after previously attempting to recreate a speech from the 1930s, Theresa May triggered a50.

A series of events, which included a disastrous unnecessary General Election and losing seats, ensured that we have Brexit by Timetable in which every piece of goodwill was burnt up a long time ago, and the EU decided to go "see ya then".

Only this General Election, made this politically impossible as well as practically impossible, given how this would destroy our economy.

So May did the only thing she could and agreed to lock us in with sufficient progress deal, which is legally binding, if no deal is agreed. Thus giving us in essence a choice between staying in the Single Market and Customs Union due to NI or breaking an international agreement which would destroy all our international credibility and trust.

Except none of the Brexiteers really grasped what was happening. Until this week.

In the meantime we still have had spectacles of Nadine Dorries asking on the infamous WhatsApp Group why we can't stay in the CU. Any Davis saying that he has now apparently 'changed his mind' on the matter. Not that Labour are any better, with Corbyn saying we can't stay in the Single Market and leave the EU. Except of course, Norway is in the Single Market...

Fast forward through a sex scandal that's swept through Westminster, installing self appointing the vampiric Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary, we eventually ended up with a reshuffle which was possibly as pointless and as successful as the General Election. And Gavin Williamson is caught up in a sex scandal.

May has managed to drag the Great Repel Bill through the Commons, without breaking the party, but with much back room dealing and compromise with Remainers. Hailed as something of a victory by Brexiteers, this rather is a fools paradise. At what price to their ideological purity did this come? Is there much Brexit left? And there is much more to come in the Lords, with the LDs committed to working with Labour on securing at least 10 amendments. The two parties have a majority in the Lords if they work together.

Away from parliament we have had the glorious demise of Toby Young, who is forever to be remembered for eugenics.

As it has become apparent that we are increasingly looking like we are on track for BINO, the EU have told us, that we should have sucked up a compromise proposal earlier and now the Norway Option is off the table as we fucked that up by taking too long to disagree amongst ourselves and being arses to EU citz. I paraphrase slightly here, but that's about he long and short of it. Instead we get the pleasure of 21 months of the EU interfering in our law without representation. And we are already locked into this. Now Leavers can moan about this, and shock horror, actually be correct about it too! Transition will be up to 31st Dec 2020 at the latest. Which realistically is still too soon, not that any lying arsed Brexiteer is willing to admit to this. Yet.

The only way to get out of this proposal for better terms? Either beg the EU for something there is no way they will give us or revoke / extend a50.

The fall out from May's reshuffle is still going on in slow motion. Rees-Mogg has got a bigger platform to spout shit he knows nothing about, admit that he has never changed a nappy nor wiped his own arse, thinks women should give birth to football teams, and how he has never visited IKEA and has no plans to do so. Johnson has tried to build bridges. And effed that one up again. Gove has made us all be obsessed by plastic straws and turn into environmental maniacs because no other minister is good at press releases and media stunts. Arch Remainac Liddington, got Deputy PM and took over Brexshit even more from DExEU. Hunt is in no way after becoming PM and Greening is really pissed and when straight back to lead from the Naughty Step.

To cut the long story short: they all hate May and think she's shit

There are thought to be nearly 48 letters to trigger a leadership election in Graham Brady's hands. But not quite. And its not about the letters its about needing 159 MPs to no confidence her... but that is starting to sound more and more plausible in the face of Brexshit hitting the fan.

We now have a leaked impact assessment that we really were not supposed to see which is slightly less worse than Project Fear. But not by much. Its supposed to be by DExEU. Its been suggested that its actually by alt-DExEU aka the Cabinet Department (Robbins and Liddington).

Anyway, nothing is decided. May might zombie on forever. She won't, she's in a crowded field of Tories with stakes. But that sub-committee meeting on Wed 7th Feb is crunch time for something or someone.

Tick tock, tick tock, went the Brexit Clock.

Oh yeah and there's going to be a trade war between the US and EU. And there's some stuff about a ex-Belize diplomat. And Trump's coming to visit us.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
67
mathanxiety · 08/02/2018 05:27

DUP already calling these figures, "No more reliable than astrology."

Let's see what their farming supporters think of that in those NI constituencies where farming is the only game in town and where CAP makes all the difference.

DGRossetti · 08/02/2018 06:55

DUP already calling these figures, "No more reliable than astrology."

Well if we can't trust government figures, we may as well use astrology.

Of course, discarding evidence in favour of "feeling" is straight out of the "religious nutters guide to ruling". Let's hope our first-born are safe.

Mistigri · 08/02/2018 07:01

So to recap, a former Home Office and Downing Street special advisor known to have considerable influence over the British Prime Minister is fixated on what he believes is a secret elite cabal led by George Soros.

So, to recap, a former HO and DS special advisor with considerable influence over T. May is an anti-semitic conspiracy theorising nut job.

And they say Labour has an anti-semitism problem!!!

QuentinSummers · 08/02/2018 07:42

I think David Icke was right and George Soros is an illuminati.

Not.

prettybird · 08/02/2018 07:55

Someone yesterday interviewed about these figures said that yes, these were forecasts, and yes, you could say that they might be wrong but that there are some basic facts about trade that are inevitable - and used the analogy that if you stuff yourself with fat and sugar for two years and don't exercise, then most people would forecast that over that period, you would put in weight. Its a natural consequence of your actions - but the forecast is of just how much you will put on and not false news Confused

woman11017 · 08/02/2018 08:12

Control the food; control the people.
www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-uk-risk-food-shortage-rising-prices-animal-welfare-lords-committee-a8199326.html

Probably best to read this article with a stiff drink. Even though it's byline, anyone who's studied history or worked with amnesty, will recognise the signs.
www.byline.com/column/67/article/2040

Nothing that we didn't predict here 18 months ago though.

missmoon · 08/02/2018 08:52

“Someone yesterday interviewed about these figures said that yes, these were forecasts, and yes, you could say that they might be wrong but that there are some basic facts about trade that are inevitable”

I agree, and I also think referring to these figures as “forecasts” isn’t very appropriate. They are not forecasts in the sense that we are trying to model the future state of the economy, they are predictions of how volumes of trade will change under different scenarios, based on actual data on current volumes of trade. It’s a relatively easy thing to model. We know exactly when it will happen, we know the exact details of trade tariffs under different scenarios (although there is some discussion about the extent of non-tariff barriers), and there are good estimates of the multiplier effects (indirect effects on other sectors) for the different industries and regions. The figures don’t show the likely economic outcomes, but only how much higher/lower actual GDP will be under the different scenarios.

Mistigri · 08/02/2018 09:25

missmoon spot on. I work in the strategy team at a large manufacturer and my job involves modelling the impact of different scenarios - it is "forecasting" in the wider sense of the term, but to understand the model outputs you have to understand the assumptions they are based on. We know our forecasts will be wrong, but there is value in examining the impact of different assumptions and what they mean for business decision-making.

prettybird · 08/02/2018 09:38

missmoon - that's pretty much what "whoever it was" said Sad It's not "rocket science" forecasting. This is pretty basic modelling Sad

TheElementsSong · 08/02/2018 09:52

Ah, but it's all Talking Britain Down.

mrsreynolds · 08/02/2018 10:16

My dh is seriously pissing me off
He works in manufacturing
He refuses to see why brexit is bad news for him/hos company because they "don't do much business with the eu"
Ffs

DGRossetti · 08/02/2018 10:21

He refuses to see why brexit is bad news for him/his company because they "don't do much business with the eu"

Is he management, executive, or shop floor ?

mrsreynolds · 08/02/2018 10:49

Believe it or not higher management....

mrsreynolds · 08/02/2018 10:50

(Although the head honcho was a member of the original referendum party in the 90s....remember then!??)

prettybird · 08/02/2018 10:54

Presumably, if the UK economy tanks, then UK demand for his company's product will reduce. Will he believe the danger to his company then when it is too late ? Confused or will it be the nasty EU's fault for "punishing us"? Hmm

mrsreynolds · 08/02/2018 11:11

Fuck knows
He's adamant brexit won't happen
"They wont do something so stupid"
I do not share his view

DGRossetti · 08/02/2018 11:17

"They wont do something so stupid"

was probably the chorus of 1913 Sad ...

mrsreynolds · 08/02/2018 11:25

😔

woman11017 · 08/02/2018 11:44

"Fascism's not happening because my tea gets made and the football is still on" is quite a common male syndrome atm MrsR

Film below:
Lots of EU flags at 'eurovision' then BBC man tells them to keep the flags down. Listen to 3000 boos. Audiences says no.

mrsreynolds · 08/02/2018 11:46

woman
I foresee many arguments in our future 😔

BigChocFrenzy · 08/02/2018 12:25

woman That's outrageous that JRM has such huge financial interest in a WTO Brexit
Some idiots think he's their champion, the defender of the poor and left behind Confused
Boy, have they been conned

brownelephant · 08/02/2018 12:26

so basically jrm has a conflict of interest...

BigChocFrenzy · 08/02/2018 12:32

We need to tackle govt lies about the unemployment figures
and also realise the millions of frustrated people who turn to Brexit and political extremes

Unemployment in the UK is now so low it's in danger of exposing the lie used to create the numbers

The real figure is MUCH higher than the massaged official one.

21.5% of British workers are either officially unemployed, inactive, or employed part time even though they really want full-time work.

Also, many people don't want to put themselves through the histility & judgement of Job Centres and JSA, so they are not in official figures as unemployed

http://uk.businessinsider.com/unemployment-in-the-uk-is-now-so-low-its-in-danger-of-exposing-the-lie-used-to-create-the-numbers-2017-7?r=UK&IR=T

The 'gig economy' has broken a fundamental link in capitalism that was good for workers

The last time the unemployment rate was at its present "4.6%" rate, in 1975, average earnings were increasing by around 30% p.a.

But today, average wage growth is only 1.9% - because REAL unemployment and under-employment is not 4.6%

http://www.businessinsider.de/low-unemployment-wage-increases-gig-economy-2017-5?r=UK&IR=T

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM
HesterThrale · 08/02/2018 12:54

Slightly off-topic, but good on Jo Swinson this morning for putting John Humphrys on the spot. In an interview about Westminster sexual harassment, she suddenly asked him if he'd apologised to Carrie Gracie about those remarks he made which were recorded. I heard it and he was rattled. (Said he'd emailed her. Email??? He sits next to CG in the studio so often. Hope he spoke to her as well.)

Brave of JS. People need to be challenged on air, live, very directly, much more often.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-42978995/john-humphrys-put-on-spot-over-carrie-gracie-remarks-by-jo-swinson