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Brexit

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM

992 replies

RedToothBrush · 30/01/2018 00:18

'Quick' Recap.

Once upon a time, despite warnings to the contrary after previously attempting to recreate a speech from the 1930s, Theresa May triggered a50.

A series of events, which included a disastrous unnecessary General Election and losing seats, ensured that we have Brexit by Timetable in which every piece of goodwill was burnt up a long time ago, and the EU decided to go "see ya then".

Only this General Election, made this politically impossible as well as practically impossible, given how this would destroy our economy.

So May did the only thing she could and agreed to lock us in with sufficient progress deal, which is legally binding, if no deal is agreed. Thus giving us in essence a choice between staying in the Single Market and Customs Union due to NI or breaking an international agreement which would destroy all our international credibility and trust.

Except none of the Brexiteers really grasped what was happening. Until this week.

In the meantime we still have had spectacles of Nadine Dorries asking on the infamous WhatsApp Group why we can't stay in the CU. Any Davis saying that he has now apparently 'changed his mind' on the matter. Not that Labour are any better, with Corbyn saying we can't stay in the Single Market and leave the EU. Except of course, Norway is in the Single Market...

Fast forward through a sex scandal that's swept through Westminster, installing self appointing the vampiric Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary, we eventually ended up with a reshuffle which was possibly as pointless and as successful as the General Election. And Gavin Williamson is caught up in a sex scandal.

May has managed to drag the Great Repel Bill through the Commons, without breaking the party, but with much back room dealing and compromise with Remainers. Hailed as something of a victory by Brexiteers, this rather is a fools paradise. At what price to their ideological purity did this come? Is there much Brexit left? And there is much more to come in the Lords, with the LDs committed to working with Labour on securing at least 10 amendments. The two parties have a majority in the Lords if they work together.

Away from parliament we have had the glorious demise of Toby Young, who is forever to be remembered for eugenics.

As it has become apparent that we are increasingly looking like we are on track for BINO, the EU have told us, that we should have sucked up a compromise proposal earlier and now the Norway Option is off the table as we fucked that up by taking too long to disagree amongst ourselves and being arses to EU citz. I paraphrase slightly here, but that's about he long and short of it. Instead we get the pleasure of 21 months of the EU interfering in our law without representation. And we are already locked into this. Now Leavers can moan about this, and shock horror, actually be correct about it too! Transition will be up to 31st Dec 2020 at the latest. Which realistically is still too soon, not that any lying arsed Brexiteer is willing to admit to this. Yet.

The only way to get out of this proposal for better terms? Either beg the EU for something there is no way they will give us or revoke / extend a50.

The fall out from May's reshuffle is still going on in slow motion. Rees-Mogg has got a bigger platform to spout shit he knows nothing about, admit that he has never changed a nappy nor wiped his own arse, thinks women should give birth to football teams, and how he has never visited IKEA and has no plans to do so. Johnson has tried to build bridges. And effed that one up again. Gove has made us all be obsessed by plastic straws and turn into environmental maniacs because no other minister is good at press releases and media stunts. Arch Remainac Liddington, got Deputy PM and took over Brexshit even more from DExEU. Hunt is in no way after becoming PM and Greening is really pissed and when straight back to lead from the Naughty Step.

To cut the long story short: they all hate May and think she's shit

There are thought to be nearly 48 letters to trigger a leadership election in Graham Brady's hands. But not quite. And its not about the letters its about needing 159 MPs to no confidence her... but that is starting to sound more and more plausible in the face of Brexshit hitting the fan.

We now have a leaked impact assessment that we really were not supposed to see which is slightly less worse than Project Fear. But not by much. Its supposed to be by DExEU. Its been suggested that its actually by alt-DExEU aka the Cabinet Department (Robbins and Liddington).

Anyway, nothing is decided. May might zombie on forever. She won't, she's in a crowded field of Tories with stakes. But that sub-committee meeting on Wed 7th Feb is crunch time for something or someone.

Tick tock, tick tock, went the Brexit Clock.

Oh yeah and there's going to be a trade war between the US and EU. And there's some stuff about a ex-Belize diplomat. And Trump's coming to visit us.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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BigChocFrenzy · 04/02/2018 18:15

As I've said, I think Corbyn is hoping for a Year Zero Brexit, when the economy would go into total meltdown
and a desperate and angry population would accept drastic measures that they never normally would

The question would be whether it is the hard left or the hard right who can best take advantage

Leave / Remain at this point would be irrelevant; it might be who can get the most people out on the streets

  • and Tory supporters are overwhelmingly the over-50s and especially over-65s; pretty unequal contest there

RNorth says Treasury forecast may be too optimistic

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86761

"Certainly, by our reckoning, the WTO option could cost us ten percent of GDP in the first full year of Brexit.

And if the domino effect kicks in, it could trigger an economic winter that takes 20 percent annually from our GDP and lasts for decades."

BigChocFrenzy · 04/02/2018 18:19

imo, WTO Brexit could be a Black Swan Event for the global economy, not just a regional mess

Think of the chain reaction of the US sub-prime market being miscalculated … leading eventually to the 2008 Financial Crash
Now think what happens if the (former) #5 economy in the world goes off-line

borntobequiet · 04/02/2018 18:20

Somewhat ashamed to be laughing about the idea of Michael Gove being assaulted with text books. I once had a text book thrown at me but it was a long time ago and they missed. Its title was Maths is Fun.

ElenaGreco123 · 04/02/2018 18:51

Off to google Shetlands house prices.

MsHooliesCardigan · 04/02/2018 19:40

www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-68595404.html

Elena I’ve got my eye on this one

BiglyBadgers · 04/02/2018 20:54

This one has its own pier! A bit of redecorating and I reckon I could go enjoyably gothic in it, spending my days in black lace veils staring out to sea and making morbid pronouncements to any who venture near.

www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-69530633.html

HesterThrale · 04/02/2018 21:23

Interesting idea being launched by Andrew Adonis. I'm still unsure about a 2nd Ref though. But I keep hearing about this notion of extending Article 50.

If Labour can be persuaded to work with Tory rebels and support the Adonis amendment when the EU withdrawal bill goes before parliament in the autumn, the hope is that a second poll could be held before Britain leaves next March. If there is no time, then – in theory, at least – a short extension of article 50 could see a referendum in June 2019, three years after the last one.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/04/andrew-adonis-launches-drive-reverse-brexit-second-referendum

TheElementsSong · 04/02/2018 21:26

twitter.com/MarkHennessy/status/959931802885545984

Asked why German exports to China out-scores the UK six-to-one, Conservative deputy chair James Cleverly said the UK has been ‘dissuaded’ by EU membership from exporting globally — the intellectual barrenness of this nonsense is woeful

woman11017 · 04/02/2018 21:53

Protesters who disrupted a speech by Tory Jacob Rees-Mogg would face up to 12 months in jail under a new law proposed by Theresa May

On Tuesday the PM will unveil plans to create a new offence of intimidation in public life in a speech to mark 100 years of votes for women

The new law, due to come in early next year, will also cover threats made on social media

Intimidating parliamentary candidates will be an offence and council candidates will no longer have their addresses published on ballot papers, bringing them into line with prospective MPs

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-proposes-new-law-would-11964577

Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM
SwedishEdith · 04/02/2018 22:31

The Secret Barrister
‏****@BarristerSecret
The Secret Barrister Retweeted CCHQ Press Office
I thought I’d been prosecuting offences involving threats and intimidation for years under the Protection from Harassment Act 1997, Offences Against the Person Act 1861, Public Order Act 1986, Crime & Disorder Act 1998 & Malicious Communications Act 1988.

Must’ve imagined it.

The Secret Barrister
‏****@BarristerSecret
I’d be grateful if @BrandonLewis could help me by pointing out where the need for this new exciting criminal law arises, and how the behaviour he fears is not already covered by existing law. I’m sure the confusion is down to ignorance on my part.

The Secret Barrister
‏****@BarristerSecret
The Secret Barrister Retweeted Brandon Lewis
Brandon has replied to confirm that his party is seeking to extend the ambit of electoral law, rather than “make it against the law for people to intimidate others”. I’m grateful for the clarification. Perhaps @CCHQPress should delete its silly tweet.

Brandon Lewis‏Verified account
@BrandonLewis
Replying to @BarristerSecret
Gives same protection to local election candidates as general election ones, not having to publish home address & also bringing intimidation into electoral law.

8:14 PM - 4 Feb 2018

SusanWalker · 04/02/2018 22:32

This is quite an interesting thread. Apparently Nadine Dorries has been passing on info from JRM et al which isn't true. Quelle surprise! mobile.twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/959582437591453696

I don't think I could cope with the cold in Shetland. Maybe I'll go Scillies instead.

ElenaGreco123 · 04/02/2018 22:37

I like those houses. Grin

HesterThrale · 04/02/2018 22:49

I agree Susan. Warmer in the Scillies. But also more expensive.

www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-40571169.html

woman11017 · 04/02/2018 23:00

Thanks Swedish addresses.

@faisalislam
“a” Customs union timeline
Thur: Gov legislates fast track power for “a customs union”/ Fox doesnt rule out in iv with me/ FT: being prepared
Fri: PM doesnt rule out in iv with me. Fox rules out
Sat: “dream tkt/cavalry coming”
Sun: Rudd doesnt rule it out. Raab does. No 10 does

woman11017 · 04/02/2018 23:03

As in not having to publish home address & also bringing intimidation into electoral law

SusanWalker · 04/02/2018 23:18

I saw that house. It's flats inside and beautifully done. You have to bear in mind the savings in fuel costs for heating unless you are planning a windmill?

BigChocFrenzy · 04/02/2018 23:27

"Brexit preparedness:" EU notices to stakeholders:

Notices published to 25-30 sectors so far.

The EU basically informing all business & public services who have trade / data share / other connections with the UK
how all this will change when / if the UK becomes a "3rd country."

Major consequences, so those stakeholders will soon start implementing alternatives to the UK, unless they believe UK govt fantasies - or receive sufficient bungs from the taxpayer.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/brexit-preparednessen?fielddcoretagsstid_i18n=22848

Cailleach1 · 05/02/2018 08:24

@StevePeers
Beneath the mask, Jacob Rees-Mogg is a dangerous and deceitful bully on secondment from the 18th century

On the Independent article about him. "Beneath the mask Jacob Rees-Mogg is a dangerous and deceitful bully". No pulling punches with "Was there ever a more exquisitely polite thug?"

www.independent.co.uk/voices/jacob-rees-mogg-lies-brexit-theresa-may-dream-team-boris-johnson-michael-gove-deceitful-bully-18th-a8194011.html

It was quite a device planned with his buddy and used to pass a falsehood around a televised Parliament. You would think he'd own up considering there is a recording of the incident. But no. Pass blame on something which is non existent. How people can go along with any pretence of him being other than deceitful after this act is beyond me.

They are setting up the blame for when it all goes belly up. Same as John Mann on question time. After question on customs union. Going on about how the economy and pound didn't die after vote. No emergency budget. And how debt going up. Well a little matter of Mark Carney pumping nigh on 300billion into the economy might have something to do with it.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/mark-carney-says-bank-of-england-ready-to-inject-250bn-into-economy-to-keep-uk-afloat-after-eu-a7100486.html

And it is still having an effect. All this is before the extension transition period. Or even Brexit.

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-boe/boes-carney-sees-10-billion-pound-brexit-hit-to-uk-economy-times-idUKKBN1FE16I

lalalonglegs · 05/02/2018 08:25

There is a heartbreaking story about a delivery driver who appears to have died after he cancelled several diabetes management appointments rather than risk £150 fine for not completing his shift. Yay, yay to the erosion of workers' rights in our brave new global economy Hmm.

BigChocFrenzy · 05/02/2018 08:43

That's horrendous, lala Sad

MsHooliesCardigan · 05/02/2018 08:44

I heard that on the radio lala. It’s absolutely disgusting. When people have health worries, they don’t need that exacerbated by anxieties that they will lose their job or not bro able to pay their bills.

Cailleach1 · 05/02/2018 09:55

If the audio of Charles Grant had not been held by a third party, maybe it would have never seen the light of day. Wonder if there are actual sectoral impact assessments which are being sat on. Because they are being held by a mendacious, sly and crooked lot somewhere. Maybe I mean the gov't.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 05/02/2018 10:08

"When Theresa May talks about Brexit," says one senior EU diplomat, "we hear the captain of the Titanic talking about an iceberg that works for everyone."

It will soon be too late to salvage the Brexit trade talks

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/73997a38-09ed-11e8-a5b3-3d239643ad40

DGRossetti · 05/02/2018 10:12

council candidates will no longer have their addresses published on ballot papers

That's a shame, one of my criteria for selecting a candidate has been the fact they are local.