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Brexit

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The Brexit Arms

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BrexitArmsLandlady · 19/01/2018 15:17

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Welcome to The Brexit Arms!
Looking forwards, not backward!

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The Brexit Arms
OP posts:
OliviaD68 · 28/01/2018 11:48

@DGRossetti

Don't think you have this right. I think you have the media story.

Syndicated loans are drafted by lawyers not bankers.

Syndicated loans - whether investment grade or leveraged - performed well through the crisis. CLO performance - which had mainly sub investment grade US and EU collateral - was very strong. Hardly any losses. Unlike the perception you may have had.

As did commercial real estate lending and residential real estate.

SME lending is always a dog in a recession.

What blew up the world in my view - generalised cluelessness across the board. Banks, investors, regulators, consumers. I saw this repeatedly as an advisor.

And this was true of a few markets only but the fear spread fast because one of them was the US.

howabout · 28/01/2018 12:06

Semantics Olivia when the lawyers are acting under instruction from / advising the bankers and accountants. Repackaging and passing on till no-one understood the underlying risk they were holding. Always obvious something was wrong when lending rates were below savings rates as they were in the UK and elsewhere.

LondonMum8 · 28/01/2018 12:12

Let's not forget the Clinton/Bush's brilliant programme to enable mass home ownership in the subprime sector. Giga Help to Buy on all-American steroids. What could have gone wrong.. The US government just wanted to help the people (!), and to be fair on a smaller scale to what tov. Corbyn would have implemented while tearing evil capitalist economies into actual shreds :)

OliviaD68 · 28/01/2018 12:23

@howabout

Yep. So we agree it wasn't just the bankers who didn't know what they were doing but investors too. And regulators. And the consumers who took out the loans etc.

Bankers are an easy target. Truth is everyone fucked it up.

OliviaD68 · 28/01/2018 12:23

And @LondonMum8 rightly added politicians to the mix.

OliviaD68 · 28/01/2018 12:25

Anyway this is not Brexit related!

LondonMum8 · 28/01/2018 12:56

OK, back to Brexshit:

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-28/europe-closes-in-on-fresh-trade-deal-as-trump-puts-up-barriers

The EU are seriously pressing ahead with the global trade agenda, in opposition to Trump. Meanwhile TM's Trump Lapdog Government are working Mongolia. Cheers Brexiters, hopefully the hangover isn't too bad :)

"Europe is approaching the next stop in its global market-opening drive aimed at countering U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist tilt.

Top officials from the European Union will meet with the Mercosur group of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay on Jan. 30 in Brussels to gauge the prospects for a free-trade deal that would follow groundbreaking commercial pacts with Japan and Canada.

The EU-Mercosur talks began almost two decades ago, faltered and were re-started in 2010. Trump’s move into the White House a year ago with his β€œAmerica First” agenda prompted an EU push to wrap up the negotiations, which advanced before getting hung up last month over the politically sensitive issues of agriculture and cars.

β€œOur aim is to conclude a very ambitious trade agreement between us and Mercosur in the coming weeks,” EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said in an interview in Brussels last week. β€œWe aim to finalize this very soon because the clock is ticking.”

EU policymakers are seeking to keep markets open worldwide in the face of Trump’s anti-globalization stance and to underscore the bloc’s continuing commercial clout as the U.K. prepares to leave. In addition to building on existing European free-trade pacts with partners that also include Singapore, Vietnam and South Korea, a deal with Mercosur would give the EU political momentum as it gears up for talks with Australia and New Zealand.

The U.S. threat to the global order in place since the end of World War II was highlighted last week when Trump invoked rarely used β€œsafeguard” rules to impose tariffs on U.S. imports of solar panels and washing machines."

OliviaD68 · 28/01/2018 13:37

Oh good. So the U.K. will miss out on that too.

Raising trade barriers ... to increase trade.

That's the Brexshit mantra.

OliviaD68 · 28/01/2018 13:46

latest poll.

Worth a read. White lower class out of work or retired males are the hard core of Brexshit.

Disaffected.

Grand.

But it seems there is widespread support for Ref2.

time4chocolate · 28/01/2018 13:53

Climate change and carbon footprint not an issue for the EU then where this particular deal is concerned!!

LondonMum8 · 28/01/2018 13:58

Yep, those folks will lead the country to the sunlit uplands with Tories' help, guaranteed. Once there are no longer any benefits, NHS or state pension left, the Hard Work of Global Britain will start. Recommend Brexshiter pensioners visit Glorious Global Asia and carefully observe 80 year olds sweeping the streets for a bowl of rice.

Moussemoose · 28/01/2018 14:02

Vernon Bogdanor in The Observer agrees with me about ref 2 being constitutionally viable.

"A sovereign parliament, it is often said, cannot bind itself but nor, surely, can a sovereign people;"

I'm rather pleased with myself.

time4chocolate · 28/01/2018 14:08

Mousse constitutionally viable maybe yes, but you can’t run it again on the same question.

Olivia - if I was a remainer I wouldnt want to have a Ref 2 based on those poll results.

OliviaD68 · 28/01/2018 14:11

@time4chocolate

Question will be on the deal. So different yes.

Those poll results are today. ref2 will be almost a year away. Plenty of time for more bad news and a greater shift against Brexshit.

time4chocolate · 28/01/2018 14:16

Londonmum8 - the NHS and state pensions is a ticking timebomb and has been for some years. It will likely explode with or without Brexit.

FaithHopeCharityDesperation · 28/01/2018 15:06

Mousse constitutionally viable maybe yes, but you can’t run it again on the same question.

Yy.

I don't think it should be run again from a personal point of view, and I don't think it will wash with voters who are already distrustful of politicians.

However, if it were to be run again, the question would need to be more explicit to counteract the 'but people didn't vote on what tyoe of brexit' mantra.

Along the lines of:

  • Leave
  • Leave (but remain part of single market & customs union)
  • Remain

The leave vote share would be options 1 & 2 combined, Remain vote share option 3.

The direction of Brexit (should leave have higher vote share) would be indicated by the outcome of 1 & 2.

FaithHopeCharityDesperation · 28/01/2018 15:07

what tyoe of brexit

I'm unsure what a 'tyoe' is, but it was clearly important to me! WinkGrin

OliviaD68 · 28/01/2018 15:10

@FaithHopeCharityDesperation

Leading questions. Three votes. Two of which are Leave.

Should really be the deal on the table at that time or Remain.

Just leave without a deal is not an option as we all know by now.

Moussemoose · 28/01/2018 15:15

Rather obviously the question would have to be different.

But it should be made clear this referendum does not bind Parliament.

It is interesting that constitutional thinkers are putting together these arguments.

howabout · 28/01/2018 15:17

Referendums don't work with 3 options as impossible to get a majority decision - a bit like 4 Party FPTP.

You must have meant Tayo the friendly bus Faith. Grin He was impossible to buy for DD3 when she was little and now he is available on Amazon she has grown out of him. Sad Hoping PH and co aren't quite so cavalier with giving away the Β£350m for even less than we were getting as members.

www.amazon.co.uk/TAYO-Little-Korean-Animation-South/dp/B00APTAACE/ref=br_lf_m_3rut7eq53wrq6ds_img?s=kids&_encoding=UTF8&tag=mumsnetforum-21

LondonMum8 · 28/01/2018 15:20

"time4chocolate

Londonmum8 - the NHS and state pensions is a ticking timebomb and has been for some years. It will likely explode with or without Brexit."

Not sure about likely, but to state that there is a possibility is meaninglessly obvious. Here is a flash IQ test for you though: are they more likely to explode once we have decimated our financial services gravy train and given away our profitable Gateway to Europe status, both underpinning our economy?

OliviaD68 · 28/01/2018 15:32

Tough one @LondonMum8

Tough one.

It depends on what land we are in. In unicorn land smash the country and everything will be ok ...

FaithHopeCharityDesperation · 28/01/2018 15:52

πŸ˜‚ I must have meant the friendly bus howabout!

I've never heard of him before - I've had many a fraught Christmas trying to get doctor who stuff though Grin
Thank goodness those days are passed now!

time4chocolate · 28/01/2018 16:00

londonmum8 obvious. Here is a flash IQ test for you though: are they more likely to explode once we have decimated our financial services gravy train and given away our profitable Gateway to Europe status, both underpinning our economy?

Oooh let me thinkπŸ€”...... no sorry my IQ is not up to that kind of analysis.

oliviaD8 are you actually having a MN conversation with yourself Shock? (alta ego *londonmum8) I can’t believe that there might another with your posting style, I thought you were unique Wink

OliviaD68 · 28/01/2018 16:06

@time4chocolate

Just me. No alter ego. I am unique. Aren't we all?