The Brexit Arms

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Welcome to The Brexit Arms!
Looking forwards, not backward!

All welcome 🍺

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Basically every Leave voter should be rewarded with a compulsory 3-6 (6 in the more difficult cases) month experience of life as an ordinary working person in one of the very populous countries often referenced in BoJo's global free trading Britain vision.

Upon their return from the Global Britain orientation exercise, it is inevitable that particularly violent pro EU riots would erupt until the hastily organised second ref and the prompt cancellation of Brexit :)

I find it amazing that some can still assert Russia has no involvement or interest in seeing Brexit through.

Legatum made billions in Russia along with the oligarchs who were raping the countries natural resource companies. They wouldn't have been allowed to without approval (bought) from Putin.

It's so dodgy that I can't believe the Brexiteers are all so head-in-the-sand over it.

It was in Russia's interest that we leave the EU. It is desperate to break up that alliance. Whether they actually took action to make that happen or people were just stupid enough to play into their hands, I'm not sure. The outcome, for Putin, is the same.

Blind people with patriotism and they take leave of their senses. History books are littered with this sort of stuff. Play ‘em like puppets on a string.

@humptyboggart

What about the effect to us? I think it makes a difference if Russia tried to subvert our democracy and is continuing to do so. If Russia is involved isn't that an attack on our way of life? Should we not be responding?

Spot on @humptyboggart. Putin had (many) motives, the means and the opportunity to hit the EU and the UK by doing his part to make Brexit happen in retaliation for the Crimea aggression related sanctions, among a host of other reasons. If anyone was on Guardian CiF forums before the referendum, surely they must have noticed they were swarming with ad hoc Russian accounts basically spamming nationalistic and anti-EU slogans. They were easy to tell: ridiculous grammar, sometimes outright interjections in Russian, user names such as OnwardsandUpwards, accounts deleted immediately after the referendum.

Oh my god.

I think I may actually have heard the first positive aspect of Brexit. It will be painful for lower and the middle classes however.

I still think Brexit is a stupid fucken idea. But this effect I had not thought of. And it strikes me as very plausible. And beneficial.

Rather than repeat it, listen to this.

Thoughts?

www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/the-man-branded-most-knowledgeable-caller/

The argument seems quite weakly grounded in data. Glossed over the paradox of Germany not having the same productivity issue despite higher levels of immigration. Sure, there is intuitively an automation suppressing effect but how strong is it really, and - if it is significant -
will Brexit Britain be able to afford any diggers in the first place, and what will the demand for digging look like? Also worth realising that nobody will get kicked out of the country (a serious disappointment for many quitters I'm sure).

But plausible?

What else do you know of that could explain the productivity conundrum in the UK? Even France has seen productivity gains.

By the way even the BOE doesn't know for sure why labour productivity has not improved in the UK as far as I know. It's very hard to prove.

Productivity growth may already be correcting.

"Output per hour – Office for National Statistics’ (ONS’s) main measure of labour productivity – increased by 0.9% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2017. This compares with a fall of 0.1% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2017, as presented in Figure 1. Following two quarters of falling labour productivity, this is the fastest growth rate since 2011, resulting in a level of productivity slightly higher than its pre-downturn peak".

www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/productivitymeasures/articles/gdpandthelabourmarket/julytoseptember2017

This week's employment numbers (wages up despite hours worked down) added to GDP growth exceeding expectations (despite oil pipeline offline) indicate the trend continued in Q4.

Tightness of the labour market and uncertainty about future access to EU workers given not just Brexit but improving economies in rEU look like plausible explanations. The other drivers could be increase to minimum wage and adjustments to welfare system making lower paying employment relatively less attractive.

Definitely worth watching, as would completely rubbish the OBR's November adjustment to the 5 year trend and consequent forecasts.

Definitely worth watching, as would completely rubbish the OBR's November adjustment to the 5 year trend and consequent forecasts.

Not so sure. A tight labour market will still restrain GDP. Many are trumpeting full employment as a good thing but employers perhaps not so much. Also depends on the quality of the available labour pool - ie is there a mismatch in skills required vs available. No point in trying to hire a pastry chef to draft syndicated loan agreements.

But plausible?

Def plausible, but it's all about the magnitude of the effect which could be quite limited given the macro structure of the economy.

What else do you know of that could explain the productivity conundrum in the UK? Even France has seen productivity gains.

British economy is prob more reliant on services which at the moment tend to be labour intensive? So if you are comparing a country which is heavy or heavier on automated manufacturing with the UK of course we will lag behind in productivity measures.

Excellent point. Looser employment laws in the UK likelly encourage restructuring exercises, in which case we could see more of that counter-productive activity in the event of actual Brexit.

Glass of ‘Brino’ 🍷anyone? if you don’t mind I’ll pass and stick to my ‘Vino’ 🍷

I'm joining you, am on my second glass of red Time4chocolate.

Cheers🍻Double

Cheers to you too.

Looks as though Corbyn may be bending to pressure. Offsite meeting to discuss changing Labour Brexshit policy. This will add more impetus to the changing public opinion IMO.

The beginning of the end for Brexshit.

The only reason I would hold my nose and vote for Corbynite Labour would be if he'd pledge to reverse Brexit.
I'm a Labour voter but not for this leader.

Well the result of their “away day” will be interesting. Jeremy is going to have to jump off the fence, will he bow to pressure from within his party or stand by his convictions and long held belief? Ironically, I think we will see Labour want a cake and eat it situation.

Meanwhile Nigel and Aaron are up to something.

Agree gussy.

The less smelly choice ... Maybe LibDem right now and Labour when they change their tune?

No point in trying to hire a pastry chef to draft syndicated loan agreements.

Oh, you mean those "highly skilled" bankers that managed to trash the world economy ? It might have been better for the world it they had been drafted by pastry chefs - at least someone else might have thought to check them.

I didn't like the way he said it, and I didn't like the motivation for saying it. But Gove might just have articulated a greater public unease about "experts" who patently aren't.