The Brexit Arms

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Welcome to The Brexit Arms!
Looking forwards, not backward!

All welcome 🍺

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You tease!

Was it on the shelf next to the English-Mandarin dictionary (which was one that you actually wanted but didn't realise you'd bought the wrong one until you unpacked your bag in Beijing)?

Ok ok... I used to work in Siberia relatively close to the border with Outer Mongolia. This was in the late 80s. I spent a lot of my free time in bookshops and looked out for obscure gems to send back to the UK. This was one of said gems.
Actually, the location sounds exciting but the browsing bookshops out of boredom bit is not that interesting.

The thought of browsing bookshops is ALWAYS interesting.

I'd LOVE to go to Siberia; well, Russia generally. Mongolia too, actually. I'd like to spectate at an eagle-flying contest.

I thought it was good fun at the time. Still do. So does my dh and dd. But I think our interest is a bit specialist judging by most people's reactions.
Imagine how much fun I have browsing on the kindle now that they kindly invented the internet for me.

Browsing, or spending a fortune you really can't afford on all those lovely easily available Kindle books...

Or is that just me?

I just bought two books today

Thats to go with the 40+ physical books I haven't read yet

And the hundreds of kindle books

I think i might have a problem

Is buying a book and putting it in the pile next to your bed not the same as reading it then?

No thats the definition of optimism there

And God created Kindle samples. It helps control my habit

Kindle Samples from Amazon: Actually Taking Back Control (R)

Londonmum, I love it

http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/diaeia2018d1en.pdf?utmsource=World+Investment+Network+%28WIN%29&utmcampaign=c7d2f41635-EMAILCAMPAIGN20180123&utmmedium=email&utmterm=0646aa30cd0-c7d2f41635-69979489

Just picked this up off Twitter. No time to read as going into work. Poster says FDI flow into UK dropped 90% while tripling in Germany.

Is this what the report actually says? Can someone check?

404

Have looked into PDI and can't find any figures beyond 2015/16 when were the largest beneficiary of international finance in the EU.

Couldn’t find Olivia's report either - found one which said that FDI into the UK was huge in 2016 due to mega M&A deals being done (eg Shell buying BG Group, SoftBank buying ARM etc) so there could well have been a comparable drop in 2017.

It’s pages 70 to 78 here:

unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/wir2017_en.pdf

Brexit is likely to have a limited impact on FDI until the terms of the departure become clear. Cross-border investment data up to 2016 show few discernible effects of the Brexit vote. The widely held expectation before the referendum in June 2016 that the United Kingdom would vote to remain in the EU might explain the lack of impact so far. Moreover, transactions that took place in 2016 are the result of decisions that predate the referendum. Many of the M&A deals completed in 2016 were announced in 2015 or earlier. Any potential change in FDI plans caused by Brexit would take a few years to translate into actual flows.

If M&As targeting global MNEs based in the United Kingdom continue to dominate future investment inflows to the country, then Brexit should not have much impact on FDI to the United Kingdom. But FDI could still suffer from the relocation of financial institutions to continental Europe or from missing out on opportunities to host production facilities that target the EU market, once the terms of the departure became clearer.

Couple of interesting articles on FDI in 2016 / 17 and the outlook. ONS 2017 stats not out yet.

www.ey.com/uk/en/issues/business-environment/ey-uk-attractiveness-survey

en.portal.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/united-kingdom/foreign-investment

Of note that there was one huge investment which made 2016 a record year for the UK. Therefore unsurprising that UK has dropped back. Even if 2017 has fallen away by 90% it would make it pretty much in line with 2014 and 2015. The figures are very lumpy.

The EY comments are starting to look a wee bit on the gloomy side so this from Dan Hannan for balance.

"Unemployment falls again. More people are in work than ever before. Oh, and borrowing is falling, exports rising, the stock exchange at a record high, manufacturing surging etc etc. If you’re still gloomy, it’s because you really want to be."

x-post with Agnes. Unusually we seem to agree.

howabout

Me too - had a quick look this morning before I went to work, could only find 2016 which reported an unusually bumper year.

"Rees-Mogg chairs the European Research Group of pro-Brexit Tory MPs. He warned against allowing Brexit to become “only a damage limitation exercise”, arguing, “The British people did not vote for that. They did not vote for the management of decline. They voted for hope and opportunity and politicians must now deliver it.” "

Haha, the hope, the opportunity, the cake and the unicorns: all shall be delivered by the almighty politicians just because "ze peepl" were duped into thinking they voted for all that good stuff.

"Unemployment falls again. More people are in work than ever before. Oh, and borrowing is falling, exports rising, the stock exchange at a record high, manufacturing surging etc etc. If you’re still gloomy, it’s because you really want to be."

Unemployment may be low but scratch beneath the surface and you'll find zero hour contracts, low pay, underemployment. This is a Tory government problem of course, not an EU one. Borrowing is falling because people are broke, the high street had a poor christmas. Manufacturing is doing better because of cheap exports. This will be short lived as Brexit bites - see Jaguar Landrover cutting production as evidence. Import costs have gone up including food due to the referendum induced weak pound. The man and woman on the street are poorer but I'm sure they be cheering on the elites and their stock market highs..

They voted for hope and opportunity and politicians must now deliver it.” "

By sprinkling fairy dust throughout the land....

Anyone know why Rees Mogg was beating Dotard Davis up for in respect of the transition period? Seems he referred to the UK being a vassal state and didn't like it?

I'm confused. If the argument is that the UK is a rule taker now and that the EU is a dictator what's the difference between the UK now and the UK during transition?

Unless of course the UK is not actually a rule taker now ?

Sorry I don't get this