Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

[IrenetheQuaint]

[BigChocFrenzy]

red The Official Receiver can impose penalties on top managers who have transgressed the defined rules of conducting business.
I hope for O.R. swingeing amounts that exceed the last couple of years managerial bonuses

because the company shareholders can't claw back any bonuses - the managers prevented this:

http://www.constructionenquirer.com/2017/09/13/carillion-bosses-had-bonuses-protected/

Previously, they could have been forced to hand back their annual bonus and share awards in ‘circumstances of corporate failure’ - like now

But in the 2016 annual report the claw back rules were tightened to two circumstances:

• if results have been misstated … which didn't happen according to reports
  
• or the participant is guilty of gross misconduct … that normally requires more than gross incompetence
  
  It seems evident that as far back as mid-2016, managers could see the disaster coming - but their only reaction was to safeguard their own bonuses.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Brexit talks latest: EU to target UK tax haven territories as trade negotiations begin

Cue the grinding of teeth throughout the Tory Party

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-talks-latest-eu-uk-tax-havens-trade-cayman-british-virgin-jersey-guernsey-anguilla-avoidance-a8156201.html

[BigChocFrenzy]

"According to one recent study by Berkeley academic Gabriel Zucman,
there is £1.4tn of “off shore wealth” located in the UK, Isle of Man, Jersey, Guernsey, Bermuda and Cayman Islands alone."

[BigChocFrenzy]

Sinn Féin MP Barry McElduff has resigned over shameful Kingsmill affair

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/sinn-fein-mp-barry-mcelduff-resigns-after-kingsmill-roww_

Since SF are abstentionist, they've no MP to move for a by-election in the HoC.
I'm unsure whether say a Labour or other MP could move for this, if requested by Sinn Féin.
Maybe similar situation to what would happen if a party had only one MP, who then died during the Parliament.

iirc, there is a 1-year time limit that a seat can remain vacant, after which a by-election is called automatically.

[Cailleach1]

Joanna Cherry at 24.36. One of the things the CETA agreement provides for is the preservation of geographical indicators. Prof. Richard Whitman observed that in the CETA negotiations between the EU and Canada, the UK gov't didn't negotiate the preservation of any UK geographical indicators.

France and Italy negotiated up to 42 geographical indicators and exemptions. Brie, prosciutto, parma ham etc. The UK gov't didn't negotiate any. It really has been a failure of Westminster. They didn't prioritise it the way other member states did, according to Prof. Whitman.

No doubt, despite the fact other states did, the British gov't's involved with this dereliction will point the finger at the EU being at fault for their very own failure.

www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09m99v7/select-committees-exiting-the-eu-committee

Probably the most tedious sitting I've seen to date. When Cherry asked one question, the panel member (Erixon) referred to the document she could read to find the answer herself.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Brexit: Jersey Royal potatoes 'could be left rotting in fields' due to lack of EU workers

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-jersey-royal-potato-eu-workers-workforce-citizens-farming-woodside-farms-immigration-a8160206.html

"Polish workers – who had previously provided the majority of seasonal labour – have abandoned Jersey following the EU referendum, according to Charlie Gallichan of Woodside Farms...

Growers are “trying to keep their heads above water until they get reinforcements” from Africa and elsewhere,
he said, warning that the current shortage of staff could result in crops being left in the fields."

[BigChocFrenzy]

Hmm, how did Jersey vote ?

Remember this guy …

Brexit: Leave voter realises his fruit farm empire faces ruin without EU migrant workers

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-eu-migrant-workers-fruit-farm-harry-hall-hunter-partnership-bbc-radio-4-today-a7802381.html

“If I don't have my 2,500 staff that I need, or I have no certainty of that from 2019 onwards, I don't have a business. It's as simple as that.”

[Peregrina]

Since the Channel Islands weren't in the EU, did they have a vote at all?

[mathanxiety]

That article shows what a huge emotional thing the word 'sovereignty' was in the referendum. I know much has been written about emotion vs thought in the referendum, but when you see someone whose livelihood depends on the EU connection so blinded, you have to ask yourself again about the power of that word. What power it had...

[lonelyplanetmum]

I have some unsophisticated night thoughts swimming around on sovereignty, Carillion and UKIP..

A trouble shared is a trouble halved on my mind overnight were:

1. Why aren’t the gov and Leave promoters more bothered by abstract and false concepts of sovereignty than the significant household names that have now been lost.Victims of the referendum, the weaker pound and the imminent loss of EU membership listed before include:

Carillion
150 jobs from Merck.
Jaeger
Travis Perkins
Monarch
Multiyork
Shoe City
Rivington pink wafer biscuits
Southern salads
Lowcostholidays,
Hewden


And those with moves or cuts include?
Jamie Oliver
Lloyds of London
Hiscox
Goldman Sachs
jP Morgan
Standard chartered
UBS
Deutsche Bank

Trying to play devil’s advocate and understand all views. What are the gov’s counter arguments ? Are these losses just a coincidence? Would these crises have happened anyway?

Is it a price worth paying for avoiding some regulatory alignment on food ( aka sovereignty)?

2. Also trying to understand the mentality of the UKIP (and the almost UKIP brigade like FIL). Why don’t they ever mention the regular Russian air and sea visits? Recently we and the Belgians have rushed to escort Russians out of our air and sea zone. If you have a tendency to be xenophobic, why don’t Russian military craft bother you more than being a member of a hugely beneficial trading bloc?

Why be so distrustful of a hugely beneficial trading bloc that we used to help lead, but be relaxed about Russian military visits?

(I wonder if FIL tries this hard to see my point of view. I expect not.)

[lonelyplanetmum]

Sorry a few typos ..
Why are the gov and Leave promoters more bothered by abstract and false concepts of sovereignty than the significant household names that have been lost?

[DGRossetti]

I think UKIP are fast becoming an irrelevance. A lot of bluster, but will they have the electoral backing they previously enjoyed.

I'm probably a bit boring over this, but I want to see the cosmic irony of trying to create a sustainable electoral base from harnessing the power of the "politically unmotivated" fully realised. It must be due a Hollywood-style movie, with someone like - say - Morgan Freeman solemnly repeating the mantra that everybodies got one vote in them to a stereotypical Hollywood liberal in a feelgood film about ... something.

Yes, everyone does have at least one vote in them. And UKIP have used it.

[frumpety]

Lonely I would imagine your FIL is relaxed about the Russian visits because they have been happening for years , or at least that is the information that has been on mainstream media in recent months .

[lonelyplanetmum]

Frumpety-yes agreed the Russian visits seem to have been happening for a long time. But one of FILs main arguments for relinquishing our seat at the table of the biggest trading bloc in the world is (and I quote, said shouting) " 'They' want to take us over."

I really don't think FIL is alone in this belief. Why are people of FILs mindset, so distrustful of the EU that they will relinquish the collective protection of being a member state. Yet are completely trusting about Russian military visits and happy to go it alone.

It's just illogical. FIL and others display project fear over the EU and yet adopt project trust over Russian incursions.

[AgnesSkinner]

how did Jersey vote ?

It didn’t - as a Crown Dependency and not part of the EU only thise that had been resident in the UK within the past 15 years got to vote.

[lonelyplanetmum]

Rosetti-I hope UKIP are fast becoming an irrelevance.
It never ceases to amaze me how much oxygen UKIP are given by the BBC and media generally. The Green Party by contrast has shown longevity , consistency, returned actual MPs and MEPs and local councillors. Yet by contrast gets scant attention.
Think we are guilty of that on this thread too. Will try and mention Green Party views to redress the balance!

[BestIsWest]

Surely it’s the wrong time of year to be picking Jersey Royals?

[NeopolitanChocolates]

Fruit farmer from Jersey, what a plonker

[frumpety]

I guess it isn't as much a trust of Russia , more a blasé attitude, probably accrued after living through the cold war and subsequent years . Fascinating programme on R4 yesterday about Russian humour , think it might have been a repeat .

[AgnesSkinner]

They’ll be planting Jersey Royals at the moment - still done by hand. Daffodil picking will be starting now though.

[lalalonglegs]

Leavers have found a new mission - they are demanding a commemorative set of stamps to mark our exit from the EU. Blue (or possibly black) passports, a set of stamps, their priorities are completely batshit a bit odd.

[lonelyplanetmum]

Lala -well as leavers seem to get what they want the remaining half of the country will probably have embarrassing stamps imposed upon us too.

My new mission is to balance political coverage for the Greens. There is lots of press attention concerning UKIP and Labour's current stance on a further referendum.

The Green Party have consistently concluded there is no choice but to hold a ratification referendum which gives people the option to remain in the EU if they wish, or to vote back the Government’s deal.

I can't decide what I think personally as referendums have been seen to be cataclysmic and flawed, but I don't know why the LBC radio presenter who used to lead UKIP gets his oscillating views given public credence but the Green Party stance rarely gets a look in.

[Holliewantstobehot]

I don't understand the Russian thing either. If I thought I'd been manipulated into voting a certain way by Russia I'd be livid. But no one seems to care. Leavers seem to blinded by their hate for the EU.

Will be daffodil season in Cornwall soon too.

[Mistigri]

“If I don't have my 2,500 staff that I need, or I have no certainty of that from 2019 onwards, I don't have a business. It's as simple as that.”

While I have a lot of sympathy for ordinary leave voters who have changed their minds, or who think that the government is implementing their vote badly, you'd have to be a saint not to gloat about this.

Rich landowner votes to destroy his own business model, gets what he voted for.