Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

Yes the posturing and prevaricating is a distraction but if Labour were to feel the public pressure (perhaps from people voting tactically for an anti-brexit party seeing as a vote for labour is now taken as a statement that you're pro-brexit) and then modify their stance accordingly, couldn't they defeat the withdrawal bill with the help of some Tory rebels, possibly making revoking article 50 more plausbile, or is that too pie in the sky?

Just typing it out makes it seem fairly far-fetched but what actions can we plebs take to try and subvert the worst of this? This is the only strategy I can think of (other than supporting the legal challenges and emailing MPs etc) and it's utterly depressing.

James O'Brien
‏*@mrjamesob*
The chairman of Carillion, Philip Green (not that one), is an adviser to the Prime Minister Theresa May on corporate responsibility. It's unlikely that you'll read anything more emblematic of the national pageant than that this week.

As always, thanks for the thread.

What I really don’t understand is why the govt had not bailed out Carillion this weekend? What is the motive behind not doing it? Bad press? Nationalisation yes I know this is a far stretch!

It makes no sense to me?

So if Carillon was the company who made mega bucks on the PFI scandal - how come is it in this position now when the NHS has lost millions from this?

Someone on R4 this morning basically summed it up as really, really bad management. They took on more than they could deliver and the banks freaked out and stopped funding them. I think someone on the last thread mentioned that the head honchos had conveniently just passed policy that protects their bonuses though, so that's OK.

What I really don’t understand is why the govt had not bailed out Carillion this weekend? What is the motive behind not doing it? Bad press? Nationalisation yes I know this is a far stretch!

The Tories still go to town on Gordon Brown for bailing out the banks. I know they are two faced sods at the best of times, but bailing out a private company would have been a tough sell even for them.

Someone on R4 this morning basically summed it up as really, really bad management. They took on more than they could deliver and the banks freaked out and stopped funding them.

See also: GEC ...

You end up with these ludicrously enormous companies that can put in the lowest bid for any old tosh, get the contract, and then whine that they will go bust unless you double the price. I've known plumbers and roofers that do this.

You also ensure the contracts are so badly written that there is no comeback on companies that engage in this kind of behaviour.

You think that's bad ? Don't forget how the cost of the RAFs F35s has risen dramatically.

On the flip side, nationalising industries suddenly sounds like a bloody good idea.

What I really don’t understand is why the govt had not bailed out Carillion this weekend?

EU rules on state subsidy ????

Plus, for the time being, the government is frantically briefing reporters that all the Carillion contracts can be farmed out to the firms that Carillion sub-contracted and it will all be very easy and nothing to worry about... Where have we heard that before ? It's not going to take too many subbies who are owed money by Carillion to refuse to keep working until those payments are made for this whole new structure to collapse. (It also begs the question why get super-firms such as Carillion to take on these massive projects if government can simply procure the workers and expertise directly and simply?)

I see @bigly, it is an ‘image’ issue.

However, isn’t the only option renationalisation? Unless another company buys out the contracts?

Or is the govt just not thinking far ahead?

Im hoping for renationalisation but cannot see how that works with the Tory ethos

Thanks, Red .

Bigly.
The Tories still go to town on Gordon Brown for bailing out the banks. I know they are two faced sods at the best of times, but bailing out a private company would have been a tough sell even for them.

Hasn't Chris Grayling just given Virgin and Stagecoach mega bucks to continue with their contract for East Coast Trains? Wasn't this what Andrew Adonis was trying to nail Grayling on? I don't understand the difference here...
(Probably my minimal knowledge of this area...)

Adonis is tweeting furiously about Carillion today.

The whole thing stinks.

Delurking to say thank you to Red for these brilliant threads.

We already subsidise Virgin trains and co, so this was simply an increase in the subsidies and not bailing out a failing company. Same shit, different narrative.

Or is the govt just not thinking far ahead?

I have no basis for this claim except my experience in local gov, but I imagine right now the Government and civil service are mainly running around, waving their hands in the air shouting 'Don't Panic!' a lot.

My suspicion is that this is one of the situations where having all our civil service tied up in sorting out the mess that is brexit is going to be a major issue. Who have we got spare to deal with this mess?

Thanks Bigly.

And thanks Red!

I have no basis for this claim except my experience in local gov, but I imagine right now the Government and civil service are mainly running around, waving their hands in the air shouting 'Don't Panic!' a lot.

I love the visual. Reminds me of TM on 9th June, nothing to see here, we are still —str— calm and consistent (or whatever bollocks she screeched while the country )

Making place.

Thanks Red.

Interestingly some of our suppliers work in similar areas to Carillion and are seeing their share price go through the roof today... all big construction and FM is likely to get more expensive again... (plus increased labour costs and inflation due to Brexit!)

Probably too contentious, but a serious question ...

Would we be discussing Carillions woes if there was no Brexit ?

Existential maybe - would the Westministenders threads exist if there was no Brexit? (they might well have been running before, I'm not sure!)

This is inconsequential but it's amusing nonetheless

Jim Waterson
‏*@jimwaterson*
UKIP's leader is dealing with party management issues in Facebook comment threads, this is fine.

I think Carillion would still have been in trouble. Apparently they have done infrastructure works for foreign governments which was not paid and not pursued properly .

However, Brexit may well be an additional factor which bumped up the costs after they'd bought a job cheaply (like HS2!)

Jeremy Corbyn tightens grip on Labour as left-wingers sweep NEC election

Candidates backed by Momentum, including Jon Lansman, won all three positions on Labour’s governing body

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-labour-party-nec-elections-left-wing-control-conference-decisions-governing-body-a8159851.html

Existential maybe - would the Westministenders threads exist if there was no Brexit? (they might well have been running before, I'm not sure!)

I think there might have been a rise in politics anyway.

There were MANY MANY threads about the referendum itself prior to it.

And I think austerity itself would have provoked a lot of changes - particularly for women. And then there is Trump and whether he would have won and whether that might have made a difference.

I think we'd eventually get to the same position, via a different route that's all. Would it have been 2020 and UKIP winning 30 seats instead? We don't know. I think we can blame / thank the referendum, but the underlying factors that caused it to happen were underneath the surface and weren't going away any time soon even if remain had won.

austerity itself would have provoked a lot of changes - particularly for women.

There is no other place for women to discuss politics, economics, meatballs, history and a few other things that have crossed our path. I imagine a few of us have been looking for a while!

When Eleanor Goodman retired from Channel 4 news, that looked like it.

And it's normal to discuss wars, while they're taking place, unless you are a silenced BBC woman worker.

RAF fighter jets scrambled to intercept Russian bombers heading for UK, Ministry of Defence confirms

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/raf-fighter-jets-scrambled-to-intercept-russian-planes-heading-for-uk-ministry-of-defence-confirms-a3740051.html

"At no point did the Russian aircraft enter sovereign UK airspace."
No panic then